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Charles
Thank you sma3! We are spending this summer in northwest again. I have no quiet place I can be before noon eastern (9 am here). Library opens at 9am! I've set up a session for Friday, 2 pm eastern ... posted on board. But, if that does not work, just call me at 805 468 9599 ... if I can pick up I will. Hopefully, can pick a day where you can attended from noon on. Very happy to do! c
Reply to @scott:
Yes, some things, like "bad is good because it means more easy monetary policy," are just counter-intuitive. Up to us I guess whether we accept them or not.
Hey, break, break.
Been looking more closely at KMP, thanks to you, as w…
Reply to @scott: Man, you are a phenom!
OK, how about this: "...not just stubbornly campaign about economic policy and acknowledge some positive fundamentals occurring in US today..."
No? Not even a little? Please tell me you too don't believe thi…
Reply to @BobC: Hi Bob. Part of issue is expectation. Investing in stock market comes with serious potential for deep, rapid loss, which I feel never gets articulated enough. Most of the "best of" lists are based on absolute returns. And none, to my…
Reply to @scott: Good stuff Scott, as always. His recent campaign is about the "3 D Hurricane" that the US economy faces, which is excessive debt, expanding deficit, and aging demographics. It's why he's avoided investing in US equities since 2009 I…
PAAIX and PAUIX have actually had it wrong for several years, not just 2013. It's just now starting to catch-up with them. I honestly hope Mr. Arnott has read Colin Powell's book. The one that advises: "Avoid having your ego so close to your positio…
Yes, where is SEQUX? Perhaps the greatest mutual fund of all time. And YACKX, LKEQX or VEIPX?
I'm honestly starting to think articles like these do more harm than good.
The general media advises we allocate largest portion of our portfolio to larg…
I agree. Good interview. (Although I experienced a short segment in middle without sound). Would be absolutely great if Mr. Bernstein is correct and US is experiencing an industrial renaissance. He plugged small/mid US manufacturing companies. And,…
Hi Scott. Suspect this news is more for our awareness than something you might recommend as an investment, no? I'm inclined to support Mr. Loeb's proactive shareholder behavior.
Reply to @JoeNoEskimo: After a decade of anemic returns, stocks seem to be coming into their own finally. Here's M* fair value plot on market valuation...about where it should be, not overly inflated or deflated, seems like:
Reply to @ron: Hi Ron. These fund risk metrics should start becoming available pretty soon as a regular feature for MFO readers. Chip is presently testing and formatting the searchable database. In meantime, David's July Commentary included a link t…
Here's how the two Mr. Miller legacy funds rate on MFO system, along side some top performing funds for each category and age bracket:
I do enjoy listening to Mr. Miller's views on the economy and on investing, but hard to see me investing in …
What a difference a decade makes.
FAIRX by the numbers...
First 3.5 years of 2000's:
First 3.5 years of 2010's:
What strikes me most is the difference in volatility. Superior excess returns with lack of downside volatility is what I sus…
Reply to @Investor: You're right. That's dumb. Left over habit from when I was heavy BOND, until dumping it June 10. Below is update using AGG, which I will use going forward. Similar YTD, but down 3.7% versus 4.8% since May Day. And, showing better…
Reply to @scott: Cool. Thanks man, you're amazing. Hey, Ballmer recently caught my attention in an interview in Tech Review:
TR: I understand Google’s vision for the future of computing. I know what Apple stands for. I used to understand what Micros…
Nice report Scott. Thank you.
Do you have an opinion on Microsoft's Xbox? Is it positioned to become the home entertainment center of future...all in one cable, video, computer, radio, game center?
Good observation. I have same question. Yesterday, RSH down 7%, today up 7%...all on speculation. Even X is up and down 3%, day to day...US Steel! Is its assessed value changing that much in single day? I know...the market is a voting machine. But l…
Reply to @STB65: I love it. I've often thought the same thing and when I get chance will go ahead and analyze the data say as of 1Q2007. D&C darlings come to mind - they had carefully navigated the tech bubble, but were slammed in 2008.
Compu…
Reply to @davidrmoran: Hi David and thanks for sharing results from your study. I think you are considering the data with precisely the right attitude. All investors should be so prudent.
The rankings are based strictly on past total monthly return…
Hi Ted. Ho hum feels great! Basic materials too up - maybe even this beaten-down sector has finally turned corner. And, as Scott's noted, energy on a tear. And then there's RSH...
Reply to @Junkster: Ha! You know. Based on 10-mo SMA, I should have been out of AQRIX in April:
But AQRIX employs its own dynamic allocation strategy - it's supposed to anyway, so I don't want to mess with it. In different ways, so do my other …
Hm, link is chock full of advertisements...and, never got to gold, silver, bronze story.
So, I'll take advantage: In this case, I agree with Rob Arnott. Only type of precious metal you need in your portfolio is kind you can bury in backyard.
Exited nearly all bond holdings Monday, June 10 after BOND crossed 200 SMA first week of June. I should not have waited as long as I did. We've all been discussing this very unwind since last year - it has been so well anticipated. The roll-off star…
Thanks John.
Zion's Rothwell article is refreshing:
But the factors that drove the market methodically higher the first five months of the year remain: The housing market is strengthening. Auto sales are strong. Companies continue to earn record pr…
Hi again Scott. Following-up on your energy endorsement, I actually think the following stocks are worth considering, based on combination of valuation and momentum, at least:
MRO
NOV
NBR
NE
ETP
CHK
COP
And these are close:
HES
CNQ
WPX
APA
DNR
DV…
Hi Scott.
Have not bought anything except cash this past month, but looking for opportunity to get more GE and COP...and get back into CLF, BTU, RBS. AA earnings call Monday.
RSH just opened its new store concept. It is again back down close to $3…
Reply to @equalizer: Hi equalizer. I like Doug Short's material, although not crazy about AdvisorPerspectives website. For ETFs and stocks, SeekingAlpha has a momentum tab on the portfolio page, which includes 50 and 200 day SMA indicators, the latt…
Thanks MJG! Much appreciated.
I too very much enjoyed David's commentary this month. Once again, rich with content. The man moves with ninja-like speed, always keeps it fun, and remains kind even in criticism.
Hmm. How does he do it?
I used to th…
Thanks man. My experience is that M* authors/editors generally seem to ignore comments posted. Do you find this to be case? The non-responsiveness has kinda turned me off to their board. That said, I always look forward to reading Bob Johnson's week…
