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Charles
Thank you sma3! We are spending this summer in northwest again. I have no quiet place I can be before noon eastern (9 am here). Library opens at 9am! I've set up a session for Friday, 2 pm eastern ... posted on board. But, if that does not work, just call me at 805 468 9599 ... if I can pick up I will. Hopefully, can pick a day where you can attended from noon on. Very happy to do! c
Slammed for me as well. Nearly every holding down, most especially BOND at -0.45%, AQRIX at -0.49%, and usually steady-eddy RNSIX at -0.35%. No safe place in the today's storm, except cash and GE.
Reply to @BWG: Hi BWG. Looks like Mr. Faber published this book concurrent with start of new fund:
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias=aps&field-keywords=Shareholder+Yield:+A+Better+Approach+to+Dividend+Investin
Very useful! Really appreciate you taking time to summarize for all of us on the board. Amazing how much the sentiment has changed in just a few short months, if not weeks.
PS. I ran the equities I purchased this week through Mr. Navellier’s screen…
Reply to @Jim0445: I typically find the Ned Davis Research report on the summary page for a given equity, right under the Schwab Equity Rating Report...about half way down page on right side.
Hi MJG. Have fun in Vegas. Please share with us your highlights from Money Show when you get chance. Bryce Canon is a destination we too have on our visit list.
Reply to @bee:
Hi Bee.
My wife feels same way. Her first radio came from Radio Shack. I thought rekindling this name recognition was the direction its new CEO was headed. Again, we're both a bit surprised and taken aback by the new ad campaign. B…
Added to equities today in the downtrodden material and natural resource sector. Could resist no longer.
Bought AA, X, BTU.
Also bought REIT financial: NLY.
Pared BOND.
Reply to @learningcurve: Hi LeaningCurve. The term was new to me also, until Flack taught me a few weeks back. A "Distribution Day" is when the market drops on higher than average volume...a sign of weakness in the market and a warning perhaps that …
Seems like every under-performing fund manager these days is reading from the same script...
debt driven ascent
Bernanke's put
reckless monetary policy
it's the fed's fault
fiat currency
bond bubble
unsustainable price to earnings
we will all be so…
Reply to @golub1: I don't think the chart is for premium subscribers. M* reserves only the most frustrating and ill-supported features for its paying members...part of their new cruelty policy =).
Reply to @ron:
Hi Ron. It is "All Rated Stocks," per M*. I should have included on chart. Here's link:
Morningstar Market Fair Value Chart
You can vary by other indices, like NYSE and NASDAQ, as well as other sectors. For example, here is one for…
Ping Flack, do you have a take on the margin levels? I saw your comment earlier about margin helping drive the rise. But I don't have a reference on whether these levels are a sign of instability or not. Any thoughts?
I think the article is fantastic. Thoughtful. Clearly articulated. Seems to me the fed has its finger on the pulse of the financial system stability...to the best anyone can. Distinguishing between vulnerabilities and triggers, historical norms and …
Reply to @catch22: Ha! Glad somebody out there is checking numbers. Added the new weekly return & volume numbers to standard chart this week...mistakenly referenced to last Friday instead of Monday with Excel function "Offset(Xref,5,,)" instead …
Sad journalism here, unfortunately. Worse, seems typical of the misinformed hype that gets echoed, unsubstantiated and lemming-like across mainstream financial reporting. I've been a fan of Mr. Berkowitz, as I trust we all know, but this particular …
Maybe my value system is outdated. How can authors actually get paid to write blind, unsubstantiated or unverified articles?
Here on M*...headliner:
MBIA Investment a Big Win for Fairholme's Berkowitz
And here on Bloomberg...headliner:
Berkowit…
Reply to @scott: MBIA has been a high conviction holding at Fairholme since mid 2010, something like 10% of company. Mr. Berkowitz called this very settlement, predicting a "win-win" outcome two years ago, just like has played out today. He's champi…
Reply to @scott: Very cool. Mr. Berkowitz should become a legend after calling this one, along lately I've noticed FAAFX is not hyper-correlated with MBIA, like it was previously.
VWINX
VWELX
VGENX
VGHCX
VGPMX
VWINX, VWELX, and VGHCX probably three of the best funds ever.
Sometimes, because your plan owns shares, you may even be able to buy otherwise closed funds, like VWELX.
Also, opt for admiral share class, as appropria…
Took a while but just finished Dark Pools, by Scott Patterson. Not a great read, like his earlier book The Quants. But nonetheless, enjoyed learning about the plumbing behind the markets, Josh Levine, Island and Datek, high speed trading, front-runn…
Reply to @bee: Ha! Nice story Bee. My wife was born in New Britain. We both grew up in the adjacent town of Newington, where I believe Fafnir Bearing represents an analogous sad story.
And all those that have been invested in this market.
And all those now able to sell their homes again.
And all the newly hired employees.
And all the stakeholders in healthier than ever companies.
=)
Mr. Arnott addresses the AUM concern in his recent shareholder letter:
http://investments.pimco.com/Products/pages/284.aspx
(Click on Insight's Q&A link about midway down on right side of page.)
Here is very brief bottom-line:
...today, we se…
Unemployment continues to decline.
Monetary policy encourages lending, which means lower mortgage payments and more investment capital.
Company balance sheets are strong and earnings generally up.
Market does not seem over-valued (see below).
Congre…
Professor Zakamulin has updated to include momentum methods. He's also provided me with optimal SMA for initial in-sample period. Will be posting more as I review further.
Link to May 1 Revision:
Fooled by Data-Mining: The Real-Life Performance of…
Quick follow-up:
1. I did read through the reference that seems to have motivated Professor Zakamulin, entitled “Data-Mining Bias: The Fool’s Gold of Objective TA (Technical Analysis), Chapter 6,” in text “Evidence-Based Technical Analysis,” by Dav…
Isn't cash a guaranteed source of negative alpha? So, only minimum amount of cash in my portfolio. I'm 40% fixed income (multi-sector bonds...BOND, RNSIX, MAINX, FOCIX, DODIX), 30% risk parity/mod allocation (AQRIX, DODBX, ARLSX), 30% long equities …
Basically I think Professor Zakamouline's paper says the back-tested sample is not long enough to be representative; therefore, he creates a model to simulate market and investor behavior then uses results from that model instead.
If he’s right, it…
Reply to @bee: Hi Bee. I see you're mountain climbing again! Nice chart comparing PRGTX against PONDX to illustrate your trading technique. I started looking into your previous post as well on VTI and EDV. Will post better response soon I hope, sinc…
