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Charles
Thank you sma3! We are spending this summer in northwest again. I have no quiet place I can be before noon eastern (9 am here). Library opens at 9am! I've set up a session for Friday, 2 pm eastern ... posted on board. But, if that does not work, just call me at 805 468 9599 ... if I can pick up I will. Hopefully, can pick a day where you can attended from noon on. Very happy to do! c
Reply to @JoeNoEskimo: What can I say...I'm long BAC. Mr. Berokwitz made similar very public call on BAC last year...
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Recovering somewhat today...
US markets seem to handle it OK, although just about everything in my portfolio was down, expect RNSIX, FOCIX and DODIX. I liked the way AQRIX held, down only slightly. SIGIX, FAAFX, GE biggest losers today.
Stops …
You are saying that while stock prices have gone up since 2009, earnings haven't, right? So, your conclusion is that the current bull market is not driven by fundamentals, which historically will precipitate a downward correction to get PEs back in-…
Reply to @Mark: Nice site. I bookmarked it. Thanks Mark. BTW. Back in 2007, I remember arguing that sub-prime mortgages represented the smallest fraction of all home loans. Unfortunately, pulling on that small thread unraveled the whole ball. With t…
Reply to @Investor: This 5 star fund has been on fire...even giving MSCFX a run for its money with better Sharpe and comparable if not better downside volatility...watch out Max! But trust you will be ready to jump if heads south...it's never been a…
COP
More BAC.
If AQRIX and ARLSX hold-up well in correction, I will look to add more to both, likely pulling from ARIVX.
If DODGX moves under 10 mo SMA (gasp), will shift 75% to DODIX.
Reply to @scott: re: Hitler video...too much! Can't stop laughing...thanks Scott. This situation is terrible really...not sure what EU leadership is thinking...they're about to make US legislators look stellar in comparison!
Advice all good here. I like Hank's qualifier about age and proximity to retirement...and how that retirement is structured. If you have a pension, for example, likely you can hold volatility longer in seeking growth or high dividend. In any case, c…
Ouch.
I could not get the video to play, but did read more of the article you shared...
Question: Which one investment would make for the next ten years?
I would buy Gold in JPY and go to sleep... Sell JPY, Buy Gold, Go to sleep, and wake up ten y…
Reply to @MikeM: Thanks Mike! This one was a lotta fun. But you can blame Flack and the healthy debate he has waged with MJG and others on the MFO board.
Just as coincidence, I happen to be at the end of an old text book, called "The Dow Jones-Irwi…
Reply to @Investor: Thanks man.
Why start with 75-25 strategy?
a) Compared to Flack, I'm a wimp.
b) A Ben Graham-ism: "...that the proportion held in bonds be never less than 25% or more than 75% with the converse being necessarily true for the c…
Reply to @catch22, Bee, Mindy et al:
Thanks Catch! Very much appreciate the advice you are sharing. Miss your frequent posts and insight on the board. And look forward to when you've completed more of the to-dos. I did check-out some of the YouTube…
It's not a loss until you sell. I call it a drawdown. Congratulations on hanging in there...you made the right decision. Once it's down like 2008, better to ride it out if you can.
Um, your current portfolio sounds pretty good to me. Would you mind…
Reply to @Investor: Done. You're right, as always. Database is a bit dated. Will probably recharge at end of month. I know, I know on reference...it's not pure. But I've been reluctant to start down that rabbit hole...I drive myself crazy enough =).
Reply to @andrei: OK, I've just added a so-called "drawdown" graphic, which plots decrease from previous peak of the portfolio versus time. In this case, I can see why D&C share holders (like me) are still shell-shocked. For nearly 20 years, DOD…
Reply to @andrei: Sir, not trying to beat the buy and hold on the pure risk-on equity, trying to catch much of the upside while avoiding much of the downside. I think a more realistic expectation is to beat in absolute returns the traditional 60/40 …
Reply to @andrei: Hi Andrei. DODIX only goes back to '89, but let me look for something comparable. I too am interested in how the method performs through crash events like '87. Gotta run for now, been sitting at the computer all day...back soon.
Reply to @Investor: OK, I wound back the clock...we are August 2008. Lehman files for bankruptcy next month. Here are the results of the method...similar, if not better, returns to a buy-and-hold strategy while reducing downside risk. Dynamic alloca…
Reply to @retire55: I actually use the M* database of monthly returns embedded in Steele Mutual Fund Software. But the same info is downloadable for free on Yahoo Finance, at least for these two funds. Here, to make it easy, I'll post the monthly ra…
Here's a look at the lifetime stats of the funds recommended so far in this thread. I added a couple others, FPIVX and WGRNX. Note that every fund on list existing before 2008 drew down 50-60% during the financial crisis. So, just beware and allocat…
