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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    APDPX has been on my best list of funds for months, but not for DT.
    In April it was down 1.8%. In 2024 HOSIX goes up extremely nicely from left to right, while APDPX goes down
    Since 01/2022: HOSIX made 32+% APDPX 35+%
    But HOSIX SD is at 1.3% vs 2.6%
    HOSIX has the best Sharpe > 3 of all the funds at Fidelity.
    The 30 day yield of HOSIX=6.6...DHEAX=5.5%...SEMIX=6.2...SCFZX=5.4%.
    We are not in a low-rate environment. 2025-6 would still be higher than years ago and if rates go lower, these funds would probably make 4.5%
    My cloudy crystal ball says that the first 3 will make 5-6% in 2025...and 4-6% in 2026. See YTD chart (https://schrts.co/gGdZWGIt)
    The idea is to get at least 4.5-5% in 2026 at the lowest SD possible.
    But Schwab MMs still pay over 4%. Why would DT take a risk for another 1%? That's not for me to answer.
    The future is unknown.
    If you want to beat MM by a bit, go for RPHIX; see YTD (https://schrts.co/pmVkkFJw)
    In the last 5 years, max loss for RPHIX was about -0.3%.
    See a 3 year chart (https://schrts.co/VzvsMKJB).
    Disclaimer: I don't currently own any of the above.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    @dtconroe. I will be curious what your final decision is. I would also like to retract my recommendations. Those two funds - SCFZX and HOSIX - were stellar during the most recent period of higher rates but their yields have been dropping like a rock the past year. They were more suited for the past higher rate environment as was anything CLO related, DHEAX has more of a history but returned over 4% but once during its first six years of existence of mostly lower rates. Same with SEMIX with an even longer history but didn’t come close to 4% in the lower rate environment.
    I believe your goal is 4% to 6%. The best advice I have seen in this thread was from @PRESSmUP that if you want to achieve 4% to 6% you have to venture out on the risk scale. Especially if the much lower rate scenario comes to fruition. Many would tell you to venture into emerging market debt which has shined the past many years and their yields haven’t been dropping drastically - think EIDOX and AGEYX which I hold. But definitely not for those who are risk averse and definitely not for you. To be honest 4% to 6% with little to no risk in a much lower rate environment is pie in the sky thinking. Best of luck with whatever you decide.
    Junkster, thanks for your participation and suggestions on this thread. Realistically, my goal is for 4% returns since I can't get 4% CDs any longer--I am getting 4.31% with SNAXX money market currently, and I will continue using it as needed, but am not optimistic that MMs can stay above 4% much longer. Many of my current CDs mature in December, so I still have a couple of months to sort through my options.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    @dtconroe. I will be curious what your final decision is. I would also like to retract my recommendations. Those two funds - SCFZX and HOSIX - were stellar during the most recent period of higher rates but their yields have been dropping like a rock the past year. They were more suited for the past higher rate environment as was anything CLO related, DHEAX has more of a history but returned over 4% but once during its first six years of existence of mostly lower rates. Same with SEMIX with an even longer history but didn’t come close to 4% in the lower rate environment.
    I believe your goal is 4% to 6%. The best advice I have seen in this thread was from @PRESSmUP that if you want to achieve 4% to 6% you have to venture out on the risk scale. Especially if the much lower rate scenario comes to fruition. Many would tell you to venture into emerging market debt which has shined the past many years and their yields haven’t been dropping drastically - think EIDOX and AGEYX which I hold. But definitely not for those who are risk averse and definitely not for you. To be honest 4% to 6% with little to no risk in a much lower rate environment is pie in the sky thinking. Best of luck with whatever you decide.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    Some of the funds recently mentioned have significant portfolio positions in derivatives, including SCFZX 33%, NRDCX 42%, CBLDX 10%. Other mentioned funds have 0% in derivatives including HOSIX, DHEAX , DBLSX.
    I am curious if any other posters are concerned about the % of derivatives held by a given fund?
    I certainly pay attention to them the way I pay attention to securitized debts and CLO's.
    In the case of CBLDX, which I own, I can look up EUR/USD FWD 20250715 and discover that there is an active currency market. Ten per cent doesn't seem too large for me to worry about. It finished 2022 in the black; I have no idea how it will perform in a recession. I also see it is 15% cash, which suits my confirmation bias. I'm not holding it in the expectation that is anything like a CD or money-market fund.
    DBLSX is 52% securitised. I can look up BATTALION CLO XI LTD too. I still don't know what it is, or how liquid it is.
    DHEAX is 87% securitised. How liquid is FIRSTKEY HOMES TRUST or RESEARCH-DRIVEN PAGAYA MOTOR ASSET TRUST ?
    HOSIX is 89% securitised. How liquid is BXHPP LTD or Sound Point Clo Xvi Limited?
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    When evaluating bond oefs, I have often avoided funds with high percentages of derivatives in that fund's portfolio. The Investopedia definition of derivatives is as follows:
    "What Is a Derivative?
    The term “derivative” refers to a type of financial contract whose value is dependent on an underlying asset, a group of assets, or a benchmark. Derivatives are agreements set between two or more parties that can be traded on an exchange or over the counter (OTC).
    These contracts can be used to trade any number of assets and come with their own risks. Prices for derivatives derive from fluctuations in the prices of underlying assets. These financial securities are commonly used to access certain markets and may be traded to hedge against risk. Derivatives can be used to either mitigate risk (hedging) or assume risk with the expectation of commensurate reward (speculation). Derivatives can move risk levels (and the accompanying rewards) from the risk-averse to the risk seekers."
    Some of the funds recently mentioned have significant portfolio positions in derivatives, including SCFZX 33%, NRDCX 42%, CBLDX 10%. Other mentioned funds have 0% in derivatives including HOSIX, DHEAX , DBLSX.
    I am curious if any other posters are concerned about the % of derivatives held by a given fund?
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    Why not LCTRX? because HOSIX is better within the CLO space. HOSIX got the highest Sharpe > 3 for all funds at Fidelity.
    Why didn't I recommend NRDCX while I like it? Because DT is looking for funds with more history, and it fell 1.6% this year during March-April.
    SCFZX is another good one, but DHEAX beats it for 3 months +YTD. During March-April DHEAX was less volatile.
    Basically, I'm back to HOSIX,DHEAX,SEMIX for DT. If you are not comfortable with CLO, disregard. Beyond that DT should invest based on his risk/reward and goals.
    HOSIX manager changed the CLO % from 64% in 12/2024 to 55% this month. CMBS=25%, RMBS=8.5. Currently HOSIX 30-day sec=6.6%
    I get weekly update. The last one
    CLO: CLOs continue to be the largest segment of the portfolio (~55%). We continue to favor this segment of the
    structured credit market as they allow us to get excess spread via our deleveraging CLO profiles. The average
    floating rate coupon is around SOFR+350bps, which we believe is highly attractive for predominantly investment
    grade exposure. This segment of the portfolio carries no effective duration, which reduces our exposure to
    interest rate moves, especially the long end. We continue to think that the long end is at risk if the Fed cuts the
    front end.
    CMBS: CMBS continues to be we get most of the portfolio’s yield. We have had several successful CMBS exits
    or payoffs over the past few months. We continue to look short maturity bonds tied to high performing properties.
    We prefer higher coupons, but if the property is performing, a case can be made for a lower coupon, lower dollar
    price bond.
    RMBS: This is one of our liquidity buckets. Our Non-QM exposure is about half of our RMBS exposure (~4% of
    the entire portfolio). We will likely continue to us Non-QM as liquidity piece. These are short WAL bonds, decent
    coupons for the credit rating (senior bonds that we buy are AAA rated), and highly liquid. Especially with credit
    spreads this tight, this is one of the areas we don’t mind parking in and waiting for opportunities to come to us.
    We also have exposure to the HECM space. These give us a little more yield and some convexity to the overall
    portfolio.
    ABS: This is the smallest portion of the portfolio. The primary exposure we have here are to the SBA loan
    space. There are a few deals that will be coming to the market after Labor Day weekend, which we will be
    evaluating for potential inclusion.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    HOSIX, DHEAX, CBLDX, and maybe DBLSX, look pretty good. LCTRX is interesting--I need to spend some time looking at this fund.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    Fidelity has a free fund screener.
    I looked for all bond fund (risk tab) + sorted by Sharpe ratio(risk/reward) + SD<2.
    See this (<a href="https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/fund-screener/results/table/risk/sharpeRatio3Yr/desc/1?assetClass=TBND&amp;category=BL,CI,CL,CS,EB,GI,GL,GS,HY,IB,IP,MU,NT,PI,RR,TP,TW,UB,WH,XF,XP&amp;order=assetClass,category,standardDeviation&amp;standardDeviation=LS,2">link)
    Then I switch to the overview tab, see (link).
    To see 1,3,5 year performance.
    The best funds for 3 years are
    HOSIX leads the pack by a wide margin with Sharpe>3 and SD=1.28 and 3 years average of 9.1%. $49.95 fee at Schwab
    LCTRX is great too. NTF at Schwab
    CBLDX, SEMIX, SCFZX, DHEAX
    The best for one year
    HOSIX+DHEAX
    For YTD
    DHEAX, CBLDX, HOSIX
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    DT:I am now considering adding some very low risk bond oefs
    No fund achieved lower loss than 1.5% in 2020 + 2022 + performance over 4% since
    1/1/2020.
    Even RPHIX lost more than 3% in Q1/2020.
    Since 2023, I no longer hold more volatile funds for months. Only short term for 1-2 weeks trades. Think ICMUX,PIMIX,RCTIX.
    I have been holding funds with low SD with good performance.
    Of course, I add timing and always near the exit.
    Since early 2023 bond OEFS had one of the best performances for 2 years; several had very low SD and made 20% in 2 years. Think HOSIX, CLOZ which I held for many months.
    ICMUX made more than HOSIX in these 2 years by 1%, but I preferred HOSIX.
    chart (https://schrts.co/pMytFkvN)
    2025 proved again that volatility can show up any time. The only way was to be out.
    Since mid-April bond OEFs did great.
    Bottom line: there are no funds with very low SD (under 1-1.5% loss any time) with good LT results that you can hold for years.
    But, bond OEFs should perform well in the next 1-1.5 years.
    So, looking at the last 3 years...
    HOSIX would be a good choice with dist close to 6%. The manager, whom I spoke with, is about low SD.
    SEMIX/SEMRX and DHEAX are also good and similar. SEMIX has lower SD per the chart.
    Chart (https://schrts.co/CuANzpzj)
    BUBIX looks good, but I prefer funds that can make 1-2, maybe 3% more annually.
    Just YTD, the 3 funds I mentioned lost about 0.5%, but are 1-2% ahead of BUBIX.
    Someone who is very risk averse and holds mostly bonds, would love to make another 2% more annually.
    Disclaimer: currently, I don't own any of the funds above.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    Yep, I am very familiar with DHEAX, having owned it for years. I am also very familiar with SEMMX, also having owned it in the past, but dumped it after its terrible performance in the 2020 crash. I have not looked at it since Medalist took it over
    Just to be clear, I'm not suggesting SEMMX/SEMPX, but the other, investment grade fund for the reasons I mentioned.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    You mentioned DHEAX in an earlier post, @dt, and I think it is right up your alley. SEMRX, the IG cousin of SEMPX/SEMMX, has tracked DHEAX closely since a management change in 2023, when Semper and a group called Medalist merged. In the last year, the DHEAX and SEMRX charts are practically indistinguishable, with barely a blip during the April swoon.
    Might be worth a look for another holding in the DHEAX ballpark, if only to spread the risk a bit in what's been and may well continue to be an attractive space.
    Yep, I am very familiar with DHEAX, having owned it for years. I am also very familiar with SEMMX, also having owned it in the past, but dumped it after its terrible performance in the 2020 crash. I have not looked at it since Medalist took it over
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    You may want to look into CBLDX, DHEAX, ICMUX, and RCTIX.

    I am pretty familiar with these funds. DHEAX use to be one of my major bond oef holdings before the 2020 crash. Thanks for the recommendations.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    You mentioned DHEAX in an earlier post, @dt, and I think it is right up your alley. SEMRX, the IG cousin of SEMPX/SEMMX, has tracked DHEAX closely since a management change in 2023, when Semper and a group called Medalist merged. In the last year, the DHEAX and SEMRX charts are practically indistinguishable, with barely a blip during the April swoon.
    Might be worth a look for another holding in the DHEAX ballpark, if only to spread the risk a bit in what's been and may well continue to be an attractive space.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    You may want to look into CBLDX, DHEAX, ICMUX, and RCTIX.
  • Portfolio Allocation Ideas & Strategies

    As a retired investor, "I dislike volatility!", to quote keppelbay. Especially in the current uncertain market and political environment, preserving capital is more important to me than chasing returns on capital. I prefer to err on the side of caution since I don't need a lot more money, and all my expenses are covered by generous pensions and Social Security.
    Currently, my conservative portfolio allocation is as follows:
    - 45% Bond OEFs (APDPX, DHEAX, PYLD and RCTIX)
    - 30% CDs
    - 25% Alternative OEFs (QDSNX and QLENX)
    ...
    P.S. Based on Portfolio Visualizer, and back testing with a start date of July 2023 (inception date of PYLD), my current portfolio would have had an annualized return (CAGR) of 10.5% with a standard deviation of 2%, and a 0.47% correlation to the S&P 500.
    July 2023 through Aug 2025 was a calm period. If numbers from that period look too good, they are.
    I ran PV with your portfolio, dividing the bond funds equally (11.25% each) and the alts equally (12.5% each). I also prepared a second portfolio, substituting PIMIX for PYLD to get a modestly longer time frame.
    From this PV analysis (July 2023 - Aug 2025) you can see that this was a reasonable substitution. Same annual returns, same std deviation, same 0% max drawdown.
    When one drops the original portfolio from the input, then PV calculates over the period April 2022 - Aug 2025. This adds a downdraft (April - June 2022) that the shorter period doesn't have. The annualized return drops from 10.9% to 8.8%, while std dev increases from 2.0 to 2.9.
    You might consider substituting similar funds with longer lifetimes to get estimated performances over even longer time periods.
    Maximizing Sharpe ratio for the original funds (substituting ICSH for CDs) PV says:to use:
    APDPX 20.71%
    DHEAX 72.72%
    QLENX 6.57%
    The annualized return is a little less (10.45% vs. 10.96%), but the std dev is cut nearly in half (1.10 vs. 2.01). However, this too is calculated over a very short time period.
  • Portfolio Allocation Ideas & Strategies
    On another investment forum, a thread has recently been started to share portfolio allocation thoughts & strategies for discussion/comparison. I thought it would perhaps be a worthwhile exercise and/or learning experience to have a similar thread on this topic on this forum. Here was my contribution:
    As a retired investor, "I dislike volatility!", to quote keppelbay. Especially in the current uncertain market and political environment, preserving capital is more important to me than chasing returns on capital. I prefer to err on the side of caution since I don't need a lot more money, and all my expenses are covered by generous pensions and Social Security.
    Currently, my conservative portfolio allocation is as follows:
    - 45% Bond OEFs (APDPX, DHEAX, PYLD and RCTIX)
    - 30% CDs
    - 25% Alternative OEFs (QDSNX and QLENX)
    Once the CDs mature next year, I may shift my portfolio allocation to the following:
    - 60% Bond OEFs (will probably add BINC and/or ESIIX)
    - 25% Alternative OEFs (no change)
    - 15% Allocation OEFs (probably split between PMAIX and PRCFX)
    Hopefully, this will be a "sleep well portfolio" by keeping the standard deviations of the allocation and the alternative OEFs below 10%, and the bond OEFs below 5%. Of course, nothing is set in stone. I will always be dancing near the exit if the circumstances warrant it.
    Good luck.
    P.S. Based on Portfolio Visualizer, and back testing with a start date of July 2023 (inception date of PYLD), my current portfolio would have had an annualized return (CAGR) of 10.5% with a standard deviation of 2%, and a 0.47% correlation to the S&P 500.
  • Getting Hard to Find 4% CDs
    If you are thinking about a longer term CD (say a year or more), you might consider streamlining an IRA transfer by using a 60 day rollover (once per year is the limit).
    You could withdraw the IRA money into your taxable Schwab account and on the same day (or perhaps the next day to be safe) initiate a deposit into an outside CD (IRA). That would constitute a 60 day, non-trustee-to-trustee rollover. If you keep to 12 month or longer CDs, you could rinse and repeat fairly easily.
    Yep, that is a possibility, but as long as I can get 4.3% SNAXX money market returns in my Schwab IRA, I probably will not do that. I can still move some IRA money out of fixed income and dabble in some bond oefs to a limited extent. I did that for years, and I am willing to do that again for a small part of my IRA investing. There are some very conservative bond oefs, like DHEAX/DHEIX, that I would be willing to use if CDs are no longer attractive.
  • M* US MultiSector Bond Category
    SYFFX has a large chunk in junk-rated fare (at least right now), while other securitized funds like DHEAX and SEMRX are overall investment grade. At this point I'm emphasizing IG in that category and taking a bit more risk in international funds. In Pimco-land, I've held PYLD off and on since inception and consider it a good MS fund.
  • Retirees Spend Lifetime Income, Not Savings - Working Paper - Blanchett & Finke
    bee: "Question: How many have turned to annuities or "annuity - like" strategies to increase your income spending?
    When I retired 13 years ago, I attempted to project my future spending needs. Over these years I have meet my spending needs with a combination of pension income (with a COLA), an Annuity Income (Savings that I converted to an Annuity), and some part time work. Since retirement, I have continue to contribute to my HSA and my IRA with contributions from part time work income. Recently I began managing one of my properties as a seasonal rental for additional income. I will work part time spending some of that work income and saving some into an IRA until age 73. My RMDs will then become a forced taxable event that may turn into an income source if needed or taxable savings if not needed.
    What type of a portfolio would you design as an "Annuity - like" strategy for yourself? Maybe a combinations of Balanced mutual funds/EFTs that distribute periodically? Am I deribing the 4% rule?
    Shifting from a mindset of saving for retirement to a mindset of confidently spending in retirement is a huge challenge we all face."
    For me, I accumulated a significant amount "defined contribution" assets through my employer, along with some estate inheritance assets inherited by my wife. Those all reside in our property, in our Schwab Brokerage, and in local banks and credit unions. As part of our retirement, my wife and I depend on income from Social Security, a small government pension, which pays enough income for about half of our normal living expenses. We produce additional income through a changing array of asset holdings at our brokerage and our bank and credit unions. The closest thing to an "Annuity-like" strategy, that we use are fixed income instruments such as Money Market accounts, CDs, high yield Savings Accounts, and treasuries, to supplement SS and the small pension of my wife. The fixed income instruments are comfortably producing a 4 to 6% stream of income, so I am able to maintain principal and just live off the income that my "principal assets" throw off annually. I have in previous years used bond oefs, that were very low volatility, low "risk" funds, such as RPHIX and DHEAX, but when the Market went through a severe correction in 2020, I sold all the bond oef funds, put all the sales proceeds into MMs, and then moved money out of MMs into other low risk fixed income instruments, many of which are covered by FDIC and NCUA government insurance protection. That is where I am now, but I always have to maintain enough investing flexibility to make investment decisions necessary to throw off enough income, with the least amount of risk, to meet my 4 to 6% annual earnings.
  • Risk Scale
    Since 2022,M* has gone through refinements of MPRS. There was an update in 10/2024. I like this absolute risk system better than old M* within-the-categories risk parameters.
    https://pdfhost.io/v/E..d~yHtX_MStar_MPRS_102024
    MFO Risks are also absolute
    RPHIX 1
    CBLDX 1
    DHEAX 2
    MFO Ranks & Ratings are within the categories.