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Okay. Ask yourself this question. What are the changes of an actively managed mid cap growth fund outperforming VIMSX over the next 13 years?
I'm looking specifically for growth because I believe this bull market has years left to run - perhaps to 2030. After nearly a decade, we're finally transitioning from an interest rate driven market to an earnings driven market, and growth stocks are likely to benefit the most. Earnings will come from the application of new technologies.
I read your fatherly advice (M* comment) and also read this other M* comment added below. There's something about home ownership that goes far beyond the numbers, but it's also nice to have the numbers work in your (daughters) favors. Good luck!
When I bought my first home 4 years ago, I withdrew my contributions plus $10K from my Roth to help get me a 20% . While it would have been nice to keep that $44K total in the IRA, I do not regret it for a moment.
Effectively, I was just moving my retirement investment into another form - a home of my own. Since then, I've paid $30K to the principal, instead of that money going to a landlord. My home has appreciated considerably in value, and my monthly mortgage on a 3 bedroom house is apparently slightly less than the average monthly rental for a 1 bedroom apartment in the same area.
In my retirement accounts, if you sell any shares of a fund, you cannot buy back again until 15/30 days. TRP also has such restrictions. So what? You can buy other funds.Also, don't some mfunds try and curtail such trading? Maybe the intervals you cite are long enough not to trigger a response.
While I agree with your sentiment that a lot of these guys are self-inflated blowhards, IMHO Bogle is not in that camp. As I recall, he did predict that in the 2000s bonds would outperform stocks. He also said that stocks would do better than bonds in this decade. (Hard to find citations for these, but I do trust my memory here.)I can remember Mr. Know-All Gross and a lot of other self-appointed poobahs predicting low, single-digit returns for the last decade (2000-2010), then just about every year thereafter.
IRA distributions and asset allocations are essentially independent concepts. If you want to pull money out of the market you can do that while keeping your money inside your IRA.
Mr. Gloom, Jeremy Grantham has certainly been forecasting similar numbers for some time. Gosh, if you listen to him, the only place to make real money is investing in timber. The "baby-boomer" concept has also been floating around for some time. I can't speak for all the other baby boomers, but I don't intent to pull money from my retirement accounts until the RMD rule forces me, and then only the minimum amount.
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