There are other views that are better elucidated.
I just finished reading James Cloonan ( head of AAII) book on "Level 3 investment" where he makes the case that there has only been one ( 1929) situation where the SP500 has not recovered from a bear market in five years. So it must follow that that the only investment calculation required is to put four years of retirement expenses ( or college expenses or emergency money etc ) into safe assets and the rest into small cap (micro would be preferable he insists ) stocks and don't worry. He has interesting data to prove that as long as you didn't sell at the bottom in 2008-2009 you made out fine, even if you retired that year,
The question is will the next correction be equal to 1929, or will the general market take a decade to recover like the Nasdaq did?
I wonder how the market can keep climbing with job growth anemic, hourly average wages flat, declining stock earnings and the huge public debt.
If he is right we should be close to 80% invested... but what if he is wrong and the SEC has a good reason for requiring a statement "that past performance does not guarantee future results"?

Hi Guys,
I couldn't agree more with you that the referenced article is extremely weak and confusing. That's especially disappointing given the credentials and professional positions of the authors. The article could and should have been more informative and far more explicit.
There is little doubt that we grossly under-save for retirement. By how much? The shortfall is huge. Here is a Link that provides nice summary graphs that highlight the shortfall:
http://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-average-family-saved-for-retirement-2016-3
The referenced piece quotes Paul Samuelon. He's one smart economist. He famously remarked that " I hate to be wrong. But I hate more to stay wrong". So do I. Constant investment learning is crucial to success.
Having a diversified portfolio is necessary for that success. When young, a portfolio top-heavy in equities and other high return, perhaps volatile holdings, is very acceptable. Later, bond products could be added to,attenuate that volatility if so desired.
However, I personally recommend and practice retaining equity-like positions in my portfolio. Like most folks, I under-saved a little preparing for my retirement. Playing catchup is risky but sometimes necessary business.
Best Wishes.

FYI: There's no denying the importance and popularity of 401(k)s for retirement savers. Americans have $4.8 trillion invested in these tax-deferred savings accounts, according to the Investment Company Institute, and there are 52 million active 401(k) participants. BrightScope, a financial-information company that rates retirement-savings plans, compiled this list for Kiplinger of the most popular mutual funds in 401(k) plans based on funds' 401(k) assets under management.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T047-C009-S003-105-most-popular-funds-for-your-retirement-savings.html

FYI: At a conference hosted by Boston University in 2006, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul A. Samuelson asked the audience whether personal finance was an exact science. He answered his own question with remarkable wit and wisdom: “Of course, the answer to that is a flat no. If this disappoints anyone in the audience, now is a good moment to rectify your miscalculation by leaving.”
Yet one of Mr. Samuelson's many contributions to the field of economics has been to build mathematical (dare we say, “scientific”) models to better understand how to optimize personal finance decisions, such as: How much should individuals save for retirement? How should they allocate their investment portfolio throughout their lifetime?
Regards,
Ted
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20161222/BLOG09/161229981?template=printart

Hi Zoneblitz,
Early retirement is most always a challenging decision given its many moving parts and the uncertainties of future portfolio returns. It's wise to seek advice from numerous informed sources. MFOers can be helpful with respect to specific components to fill a portfolio. The suggestions already offered by MFO members provide some excellent specifics and general guidelines.
Allow me to take a step backward in terms of making the retirement decision itself. Is it prudent at this time? What are the odds for a successful retirement as measured by portfolio survival?
I am a strong advocate for Monte Carlo application to address this serious question. Monte Carlo techniques were designed to explore uncertainties. Many versions of the Monte Carlo tool,are now accessible on the Internet. Here is a Link to one such superior tool that can be used to aid in making a retirement decision:
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/monte-carlo-simulation#analysisResults
Many folks have deployed such a tool when making their retirement decision. I did, and suggest you might benefit by running a few what-if simulations. You get to choose the scenarios that you want to explore. Each case is completed in seconds. Please give it a look/see.
Try different portfolio constructions. Try different future return likelihoods. The options are almost endless. And each separate run will yield a portfolio survival probability.
A Monte Carlo analysis will contribute to the retirement date decision itself as well,as providing some insights to a portfolio construction that has the best odds for its long term survivability.
I hope this helps. Monte Carlo analyses sure helped me in making my retirement decision.
Best Wishes for a successful retirement decision and a long,successful retirement.

I would suggest you check out the following forum.
http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/
There are lot more posters there and you will get more feedback.

Hello,
Due to some medical issues I may be forced to find ways to generate income. I have read this forum for some time and think the members here are top notch. I've managed my own investments for about 15 years and consider myself pretty knowledgeable. However, truth be told, I'm no expert with bonds or bond funds.
I have sought out the advise of a financial advisor and one consultant from a major discount brokerage. Both had very different opinions. The financial advisor recommended a basket of American Funds. The consultant recommended several ETF's, like BAB and high yield mutual funds. ( The actual recommended portfolio only had 18% dividend paying stocks)
Most of the assets are in a taxable account. But, I guess, I can't allow the possible tax ramifications to dictate every investment decision.
I'm thinking of funds like:
VWINX
PONDX
SCHD
DLTNX
High yield bond ?
Short term ?
Trying to generate around 4% yield with around 30% in high quality stocks, if possible. I know that interest will likely keep going higher and this could cause serious issues with the bond portion.
I would absolutely love to hear the thoughts and opinions from forum members. Thanks in advance

Hi Ted,
Yes, I really appreciate it -- please say hello and season's greetings to everyone who might remember. I can't believe how much time and energy we spent on FundAlarm -- where did it all go (the energy in particular!) Things are well. Retirement is in the offing, perhaps a couple of years or so, and who knows: there might even be another Web site in me. Maybe something that combines cars, personal finance, and retirement planning? That would be fun.
Thanks again, and all the very best to you and yours in 2017, and beyond.
Regards,
Roy

Why waste column inches? Regarding a sibling PRIMECAP-run fund, they'd already written:
"Capital Opportunity is closed to new investors, but you’re in luck if the fund is offered in your employer-sponsored retirement-savings plan—that rule doesn’t apply."
Also, VPMCX is open to some Flagship retail customers.
http://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/15805/vanguard-fund-changes-to-primecap-and-primecap-related-funds

@msf: Someone should tell Kiplinger Vanguard Primecap Admiral & Investor Shares are closed to new investors !
Regards,
Ted
Best Vanguard Funds for Your Retirement Savings
Vanguard Primecap: BUY
Symbol: VPMCX
Expense ratio: 0.40%
Assets: $47.4 billion
One-year return: 11.2%
Three-year annualized total return: 12.8%
Five-year annualized total return: 16.7%
Ten-year annualized total return: 9.3%
Yield: 1.4%
From Primecap’s debut in 1984, the fund returned 13.4% annualized, handily beating the S&P 500 by an average of 2.4 percentage points per year. Few funds have done better. Primecap is closed to new investors, but if the fund is offered in your employer-sponsored retirement-savings plan, you can ignore that rule.
Primecap Management, the fund’s subadviser, runs this fund the same way as Capital Opportunity. Each of the fund’s five managers independently runs his own slice of the fund’s assets. But they all follow the same approach, focusing on large and midsize companies with strong growth potential that are trading at reasonable prices.
Note: On November 15, 2016, we changed our rating on this fund from Hold to Buy
Vanguard Website:
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0059&FundIntExt=INT

We aim to please. Here's Google's cached copy.
You can click on the "view as one page" at the bottom of the text, it seems to work fine - fetching more cached content - even with an ad blocker engaged.
As to the content, that's another matter. Kiplinger notes that it just changed Primecap from a hold to a buy. Seems like the usual stating of the obvious mixed with performance chasing. A year ago, Primecap's 5 year performance was mediocre - 2011 and 2012 almost exactly median, good years for 2013 and 2014, but a below average 2015. That meant its one year performance was poor also.
Now that the fund is back to top decile performance, Kiplinger says "buy". Never mind that after a decade of growth outperforming value, we're beginning to see a reversal.
http://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/2016-11-07/growth-stocks-or-value-stocks-which-are-winning
It's a great long term fund for retirement. Now, last year, next year. The idea of rating it one way one year and another way another year runs counter to both the idea of long term investing for retirement, and the nature of this fund. It tends to runs in unpredictable streaks.

http://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/investing/T047-S003-best-vanguard-funds-for-your-retirement-savings/index.html?rid=SYN-yahoo&rpageid=15662&yptr=yahoo
"Vanguard is the biggest fund company in the land, with more than $3 trillion in assets. So chances are high that many retirement savers have access to Vanguard funds in their 401(k) plans. But size is no guarantee of good results."

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1423047/000116204416002687/kimberlite497201612.htm
497 1 kimberlite497201612.htm
KIMBERLITE INVESTMENT TRUST
Supplement to the Prospectus dated December 12, 2016
Effective as of December 12, 2016, Kimberlite Floating Rate Financial Services Capital Fund (the “Fund”), a series of the Kimberlite Investment Trust (the “Trust”), will end the public offering of its shares. Accordingly, shares of the Fund are no longer available for purchase. The Fund will continue to operate until the soonest practicable date on or after December 16, 2016 (the “Closing Date”), when it will be liquidated.
The Board of Trustees of the Trust (the “Board”), in consultation with the Fund’s investment adviser, Kimberlite Asset Management, LLC (the “Adviser”), made the determination to end the Fund’s public offering and to discontinue the Fund by unanimous vote of the Board during the Board Meeting held on December 12, 2016, based on, among other factors, the Board’s determination that the Fund’s current asset size, recent purchase and redemption history and projected expenses and expense structure indicate that it is unlikely that the Fund will grow for the foreseeable future. Through the date of the Fund’s liquidation, currently scheduled to take place on the Closing Date, the Adviser will continue to waive fees and reimburse expenses of the Fund, as necessary, in order to maintain the Fund’s fees and expenses at their current level, as specified in the Prospectus.
As of December 1, 2016, in response to market conditions, the Fund assumed a temporary defensive position and converted all of the Fund’s portfolio securities to cash. In connection with the liquidation: (i) the Fund will remain in cash until Closing Date; and (ii) all outstanding shareholder accounts on the Closing Date will be closed and the proceeds of each account will be sent to the shareholder’s address of record or to such other address as directed by the shareholder including special instructions that may be needed for Individual Retirement Accounts (“IRAs”) and qualified pension and profit sharing fund accounts. In addition, the Fund’s redemption fee for all shareholder redemptions on or after December 12, 2016 is eliminated. As a result of the Fund’s cash position described above, the Fund’s normal exposure to investments has been eliminated. Accordingly, shareholders should not expect the Fund to achieve its stated investment objective.
Shareholders may continue to freely redeem their shares on each business day during the Fund’s liquidation process. The distribution of proceeds from the closing of shareholder accounts remaining on the Closing Date will be considered for tax purposes a sale of Fund shares by shareholders, and shareholders should consult with their own tax advisors to ensure its proper treatment on their income tax returns. In addition, shareholders invested through an IRA or other tax-deferred account should consult with their own tax advisors to understand the rules regarding the reinvestment of these assets. In order to avoid a potential tax issue, shareholders may choose to authorize, prior to the Closing Date, a direct transfer of their retirement account assets to another tax-deferred retirement account. In addition, shareholders generally have 60 days from the date of the liquidation to invest the proceeds in another IRA or qualified retirement account; otherwise the liquidation proceeds may be required to be included in the shareholder’s taxable income for the current tax year.
If you have any questions regarding this Supplement, please call (855)- 318-2804.
Investors Should Retain this Supplement for Future Reference

Old_Skeet: FWIW, I'm thinking my Market has priced the
rate increase in already. Last month VG Retirement Income went down almost 14 % Nav 5.1 down to 4.4.
Derf

FYI:
State retirement plans for workers fed up with fees, returns.
University endowments also redeeming, negotiating better terms.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-15/hedge-fund-love-affair-is-ending-for-u-s-pensions-endowments

Examples:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923184/000119312516784851/d299132d497.htm
497 1 d299132d497.htm 497
SUPPLEMENT DATED DECEMBER 5, 2016
TO THE INVESTOR AND INSTITUTIONAL PROSPECTUS OF
MATTHEWS ASIA STRATEGIC INCOME FUND AND
MATTHEWS ASIA CREDIT OPPORTUNITIES FUND
DATED APRIL 29, 2016
Effective immediately after market closing on December 30, 2016, the minimum initial investment for Institutional Class shares is lowered from $3,000,000 to $100,000.
Therefore, effective immediately after market closing on December 30, 2016, the Institutional Class Shares chart under the “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” section on page 11 is hereby removed in its entirety and replaced with the following:
INSTITUTIONAL CLASS SHARES
Type of Account Minimum Initial Investment Subsequent Investments
All accounts $100,000 $100
Minimum amount for Institutional Class Shares may be lower for purchases through certain financial intermediaries and different minimums may apply for retirement plans and other arrangements subject to criteria set by Matthews.
The minimum investment requirements for both the Investor and Institutional Classes do not apply to Trustees, officers and employees of the Funds and Matthews, and their immediate family members.
Also effective immediately after market closing on December 30, 2016, the Minimum Investments in the Institutional Class Shares chart under the “Purchasing Shares” section on page 31 is hereby removed in its entirety and replaced with the following:
MINIMUM INVESTMENTS IN THE INSTITUTIONAL CLASS SHARES OF THE FUNDS
(U.S. RESIDENTS*)
Type of Account Minimum Initial Investment Subsequent Investments
All accounts $100,000 $100
Minimum amount for Institutional Class Shares may be lower for purchases through certain financial intermediaries and different minimums may apply for retirement plans and other arrangements subject to criteria set by Matthews.
* Additional limitations apply to non-U.S. residents. Please contact a Fund representative at 800.789.ASIA (2742) for information and assistance.
Finally, also effective immediately after market closing on December 30, 2016, the second paragraph under the heading “Minimum Size of an Account” on page 35 is hereby removed in its entirety and replaced with the following: “The Funds reserve the right to redeem small Institutional Class accounts that fall below $100,000 due to redemption activity. If this happens to your account, you may receive a letter from the Funds giving you the option of investing more money into your account or closing it. Accounts that fall below $100,000 due to market volatility will not be affected.”
For all existing and prospective Investor Class and Institutional Class shareholders of Matthews Asia Strategic Income Fund:
Effective immediately, Gerald M. Hwang no longer acts as a Co-Manager of the Matthews Asia Strategic Income Fund. All references with respect to Gerald M. Hwang in respect of the Fund are hereby removed.
Please retain this Supplement with your records.
******** https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923184/000119312516784870/d288429d497k.htm MICSX
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923184/000119312516784873/d288429d497k.htm MIPIX
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923184/000119312516784859/d299132d497.htm All other Matthews Funds & above

Hi @catch22,
Yes, a good problem ... but, one I stay on top of and that I manage.
Taxation and medicare premiums are something that I can somewhat manage due to holding a sizeable cash position. With this, should unexpected expenses arise (and they do) from time-to-time then I draw on cash reserves rather than selling invested securities which often times trigger associated capital gains along with taking outsized withdrawals from my IRA which are also taxable. These things can sneak up on one quickly and pretty soon you wind up with a sizeable tax bill.
So, there is something good to be said about holding a reasonable amount of cash in retirement and also doing some strategy based selling along with taking planned IRA withdrawals.
Skeet

I hold bonds for both ballast against a sinking market but also for income---in the future. I'm collecting and reinvesting it all, still. My bonds are 39% of portf., including balanced funds. My specific bond funds come to 27.42% of portfolio. PREMX, PRSNX, DLFNX. I'm also building a slice in a single-stock electric utility for dividends, but it's not in a retirement/tax-sheltered arrangement, just a standard investment account through a DSPP. (PNM.)

Hi Catch - Geez, I really need to edit/fact-check these stats for awhile before I can confirm or deny your answer. (We strive for accuracy here.) So, your prize will be delayed for an indefinite period. :)
Thanks, however, for participating in the game.
You may now direct your (obvious) intelligence to the questions of (1) Why anyone would own this fund and (2) How the same manager could remain in place for 16 years. (Each correct answer increases your prize amount by 10%.)
---
Edit: Anyone have easy access to how some of the broader indexes performed since 2000?
(S&P / Mixed bonds / 60-40 Balanced?) That would be very interesting. I'd imagine even a good short-term bond fund like Price's (PRWBX) would have bested 1.49%.

Manager has lasted 16 years, on such performance??? Nepotism, I should think, is in play, here.
My two biggest holdings carry both stocks and bonds, but I don't ever remember either of them holding up to FORTY percent bonds. I recognize a 60/40 mix is the classic recipe for later-life and retirement stability. PRWCX and MAPOX. Totally fabulous in every way. Except that it's not possible to have sex with them. ...
...I just looked at PRWBX, but my Interm. Term bond funds have a leg-up in terms of performance--- even though bonds have been crucified since the election. I understand that a short-term bond fund is there in order to cover a DIFFERENT base than a standard Core bond fund. My bond funds: DLFNX, PRSNX, PREMX. Add the two balanced funds, and my stuff does indeed approach that 40% figure, at 39%. (39 bonds, 44 domestic equity, 8 foreign equity, 7 cash and 2 convertibles or shorts. I don't engage in shorts. It's the Fund Manager's own play.
Happy Saturday. Thanks to those on this message board and its creators and contributors!

I read somewhere that AF are planning to come out with F shares without the 12B fee in January. We'll see. I would be interested in investing in these shares of Income Fund of America and/or Capital Income Builder since I am near retirement, and would like to develop an income stream. The ERs are pretty low for being actively managed. I already own a good chunk of Wellesley, and am looking at other funds for income.