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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bank of America declares ‘the end of the 60-40’ standard portfolio
    My usual comment.
    For most investors, buy and hold a simple target fund is one of the best. I believe you can do worse.
    For above-average knowledge investors, there are several other good options.
    I see stocks as a simpler portion of one's portfolio. The US LC is the dominated category and SPY/VTI is a pretty good risk-adjusted index. The biggest difference is the bond portion and the older you get the more you should pay attention. For most, it's several years prior to retirement and thru retirement.
    Bond land has opportunities such as Multi sector and Non trad bond OEFs and all the way to leverage FI CEF. These funds have much higher dist and in most cases reasonable risk attributes (SD, Max draw, Sharpe, Sortino). Examples: PIMIX,SEMMX,IOFIX,JMSIX...PDI,PCI.
    For about 20 years I have used best risk/reward funds.
    I can name several for stocks/allocation...PRWCX,USMV,SPLV and maybe DSEEX, AUEIX...recently I looked at international stocks and came up with MFAIX/MFAPX.
    Most/all of these articles, opinions and research papers are discussing simple bond funds which are planes without a pilot.
  • SEMPX
    Thank you to all for responding. I am going to consider EIXIX.
    Please note most of its outsized YTD returns in EIXIX occurred the first four months of its existence. The past 6 months it has been mediocre at best compared to IOFIX among others. You seem to like the non agencies. You might want to check out DPFNX. It gets no mention but a real steady eddy in the non agency sector. As detailed in the past, I paired it with IOFIX in 2017 and part of 2018. Haven’t been in it this year but that may change soon.
  • SEMPX
    SEMPX was a big part of my portfolio in 2018 but none in 2019. YTD at 3.8% is not good when many made a lot more. Look at direct securitized rivals such as IOFIX,EIXIX and VCFAX. I know SEMPX has low duration and very low SD. SEMPX is pretty good as a cash sub for investors who understand its higher risk/volatility. T
    The lowest SD in this group is SEMPX and then VCFAX which is more diversified.
    If you want more performance with higher SD then IOFIX,EIXIX(new fund with very small AUM).
    BTW, from their last top (1-2 weeks ago) IOFIX,EIXIX held better than SEMPX,VCFAX.
  • SEMPX
    I am still holding SEMPX and IOFIX. Low interest rates, low unemployment, housing construction going up all around where I live...continue to hold both.
    Agree as housing has been a real linchpin for the economy recently. Also believe the economy is stronger than the recession mongers would have us believe. But I sold some IOFIX today and may sell more Monday. Still like the fund and the sector but was too top heavy as well getting worried about some ebullient sentiment in the non agencies.
    I also get worried whenever I see the 10 year have weeks like this one and wonder if there are more to come. A fund manager in the non agencies (not IOFIX) put a bug in my ear once about how they worry whenever the 10 year rates begins trending upward for a sustained period. Something to do with its impact on how the outside reporting firm prices their portfolio. Not sure how accurate that is and maybe something @Charles can ask IOFIX when he gives up his update on the fund.
  • SEMPX
    I am still holding SEMPX and IOFIX. Low interest rates, low unemployment, housing construction going up all around where I live...continue to hold both.
  • How Long Can A Good Fund Look Bad?
    HSGFX is a terrible fund. I always start with best performers and then look for great risk attribute(SD,max draw,Sharpe,Sortino).
    That lead me to SGIIX,FAIRX,OAKBX) 2000-2008.
    In the last several years I have uses 1) USMV instead of the SP500 2) PRWCX for allocation 3) PIMIX for multisector until 2017 and since then IOFIX,JMSIX,JMUIX
    You get moderated off the M* forum and end up here. You are great at posting after the fact of unsubstantiated trades. You have been offered over $1000 to provide just a year or two of monthly trading statements but refuse. You have been asked to post in real time the day of your trades not days and weeks afterwards but you refuse. IOFIX? You are been vociferous the past year on your dislike of this fund. What exactly are your present holdings and % of total portfolio as of this morning. That is not a difficult question. In my 50 plus years in the game from what I have seen over at M* you are the worst trader I have ever witnessed. And I have dealt with thousands of traders.
    Can’t you just post your analysis which many enjoy and leave out all the fiction of your after the fact trading exploits. I may have to dust off my Crooks Con Men, and Charlatans thread.
    Edit. Here is a thread today over ar M*. Read carefully the comments from Bazinga. A most accurate analysis of the Great Pretender
    https://community.morningstar.com/t5/Community-Feedback/Is-the-FD-on-Bonds-thread-locked/m-p/26018#M1312
  • How Long Can A Good Fund Look Bad?
    HSGFX is a terrible fund. I always start with best performers and then look for great risk attribute(SD,max draw,Sharpe,Sortino).
    That lead me to SGIIX,FAIRX,OAKBX) 2000-2008.
    In the last several years I have uses 1) USMV instead of the SP500 2) PRWCX for allocation 3) PIMIX for multisector until 2017 and since then IOFIX,JMSIX,JMUIX
    SPLV is doing better than USMV in the last year and both better than SPY.
    See PV(link)
    The above show that Sharpe+Sortino are much better for USMV than VFINX(SP500) and even PRWCX(allocation) is better because performance is close but SD and others are better.
  • IOFIX -- AlphaCentric Income Opportunities Fund Offers Up A Safe 5.21% Yield, But Only For A Limited
    This article provides a good background discussion about IOFIX...including the niche, the process, the people, and the competition.
    IOFIX offers a pure-play into one of our favorite areas of the bond market, non-agency MBS.
    The trade on legacy non-agency MBS is waning, thanks to lower rates and improving homeowner balance sheets.
    The fund is a great play to add defense to your portfolio while generating a fairly safe 5%+ yield.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4293861-alphacentric-income-opportunities-fund-offers-safe-5_21-percent-yield-limited-time
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?

    I cut back on IOFIX because as mentioned before I am really spooked with what is going on with the yield curve and longer dated Treasuries. Albeit continued strength in the economy as evidenced by a widening yield curve should be a positive for IOFIX. You and I have far different risk tolerances.

    I'm sure we are different. I'm looking for my bond OEFs to make 6+% annually with the lowest SD and most times invested at 99+% but I trade several times per year using stocks, indexes(most times), CEFs and more for several days to make 1-3% when I see favorable technical analysis. I just got out today of VTI that I bought last week.
    http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/374434/3846258.aspx
    I couldn’t find here where you entered VTI. Are you bringing your after the fact posting style over to this forum? And why are you even here in light of your not very complimentary comment about Mutual Fund Observer in the link above, If MFO is such a “yawn” why even bother.
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?

    I cut back on IOFIX because as mentioned before I am really spooked with what is going on with the yield curve and longer dated Treasuries. Albeit continued strength in the economy as evidenced by a widening yield curve should be a positive for IOFIX. You and I have far different risk tolerances.
    I'm sure we are different. I'm looking for my bond OEFs to make 6+% annually with the lowest SD and most times invested at 99+% but I trade several times per year using stocks, indexes(most times), CEFs and more for several days to make 1-3% when I see favorable technical analysis. I just got out today of VTI that I bought last week.
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    Sounds like IOFIX extremely low UI may be misleading?
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    You are correct, PV has 2 choices monthly or yearly performance. This means the -0.87 is per one whole month.
    I looked carefully (I hope) and that day last Nov was the worse one day decline in 3 years, I found several more days with -0.6 to -0.8%
    Yes, that was by far it’s worst one day performance. That was during the period when both stocks and bonds were being pummeled by rising rates. The current rise in the 10 year Treasury has me a bit spooked although it hasn’t impacted IOFIX much or its cousin DPFNX at all. The later holds less subprime. I may lighten up on IOFIX albeit not drastically. Me lightening to any degree works well as a contrarian indicator.
    @Charles, talked with Brian Loo yesterday. They still feel their holdings in their subprime non agency ( I don’t believe they hold any prime or alt-a non agency) has many more years of life left. Trading around 70 cents on the dollar. An ever shrinking asset class equals scarcity value.
    A lot more we discussed but you can give us more details when you update your report after visiting with the other principals in the firm. Of course when speaking with any fund managers how often will you hear anything but a rosy forecast, IOFIX being a niche fund has some unique things going its way. That is unless there is some major collapse in home prices and all those subprime borrowers get upside down on their loans again and this time decide to walk away.
    .
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    IOFIX 10.44% 2.69% 14.04% 3.49% -0.87% 3.16 13.47
    @FD1000, you and Morningstar must have a different definition of maximum drawdown than me. -0.87% over the past three years?? I mean it declined 1.29% on just one day alone last November.
  • bondy diversification
    That's too bad. Please let us know which funds you decide to go with. There are a number that folks have mentioned that I'm also looking at, IOFIX included.
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    I have owned IOFIX twice for several months. IOFIX is the only fund in my watch list with much higher volatility than the category every several months with no apparent reason which scars me.
    See YTD chart of IOFIX+JMSIX. Look at 02/2019 where IOFIX was down -0.4...on 04/2019 down -0,8%...08/2019 up more than 2%. A bond fund that can go up more than 2% in just 2 weeks can also go down.
    PV shows that IOFIX has an amazing risk/reward long term (link) for 3 year performance but YTD not so much.
    Portfolio CAGR Stdev Best Year Worst Year Max. Drawdown Sharpe Ratio Sortino Ratio
    PIMIX 5.34% 1.91% 8.60% 0.58% -1.11% 1.95 4.01
    PUCZX 6.89% 2.24% 9.22% 1.75% -1.13% 2.38 6.63
    PDIIX 5.99% 3.45% 11.10% -0.99% -2.23% 1.31 2.8
    IOFIX 10.44% 2.69% 14.04% 3.49% -0.87% 3.16 13.47
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    @junkster I was writing about funds back when those studies on new funds came out and a few things come to mind:
    1. In the 1990s many new small cap and growth funds were launched that benefitted from extra IPO allocation to hot dot.com stocks like Pets.com and
    Webvan. Van Wagoner , Turner Microcap Growth, Strong and Janus funds come to mind. Some of them ultimately got in trouble for juicing their new fund returns with more shares of these IPOs than other funds at the shop and not acknowledging that it was IPOs doing the heavy lifting and that once the funds grew in size the IPO effect wouldn’t last. In fact, many of those IPOs subsequently flamed out. In any case, times have changed and we no longer have a 1990s IPO market for new funds to benefit from.
    2. I am fairly certain those Kobren and Charles Schwab studies did not adjust for survivorship bias. I would have to check but I did write about them back then—favorably too I believe—and I recall no mention of survivor bias. Please provide any evidence of the new fund effect that adjusts for survivor bias today if you have it. I doubt there is any evidence for it as I see bad new funds liquidated every day. In fact, their liquidations are tracked here. Nor is this to say I am against new funds. But I think newness must be accompanied with additional quantitative and qualitative research, the kind David does on this site. Fees should be part of that research in my view, and there is far more evidence of fees importance to performance than the new fund effect.
    3. Think of the kind of fund this is and what it’s investing in—non-agency debt. That debt has in the past become extraordinarily illiquid during times of market stress. And funds that invested in it have been crushed due to illiquidity. I suggest MFOers look up the Regions Morgan Keegan funds if they doubt the risks of a liquidity crunch. Such a sector is not the best fit for a mutual fund that must provide daily liquidity in my view especially if the fund concentrates in that sector to a high degree over more liquid mortgage bonds. The sector meanwhile is shrinking each year.
    4. At $2 billion in assets this fund collects $30 million in fees a year. At $3 billion it collects $45 million. The team required to investigate this one sector of the market must be highly compensated with that fee. Are they earning it with good Individual security selection or by concentrating in the riskiest sectors of the mortgage market more so than their lower cost peers. Regions Morgan Keegan once had a great record too before the housing bust by taking such risks.
    5. In a highly illiquid sector money managers often use a pricing system called fair value for estimating securities value in the portfolio. That can make the fund seem a lot more stable than it actually is and hides risk. It also creates an incentive for fraud in how securities prices are marked.
    #1 pretty much sums it up and very close to what I wrote in my book. Half my profits in 98 and 99 came from the new fund effect in tech and small cap growth because of allotments to hot IPOs. I can think of a few new funds from Janus and INVESCO that were up 15% to 25% in a month. Even used Strong’s new high yield fund to my advantage in 96 where it beat not only all its peers but the S&P. I also exploited datelining - probably the closest thing to a free lunch you could ever find on Wall Street. I make no bones about luck being on my side in the 90s. Funny thing about luck as I have also been lucky since 2000 too, especially the luckiest trade of my lifetime - junk bonds on 12/16/2008 when the Fed rang the loudest bell I have ever heard on Wall Street. Probably explains why The Luck Factor by Max Gunther is one of top three favorite books.
    As for IOFIX, I just think they are sitting on a gold mine in the legacy non agency rmbs they have remaining in their portfolio. Can’t think of any time since the Great Recession where there has been any illiquidity in those bonds. Can’t think of where there could be any wave of defaults from those legacy bonds issued between 04 and 07 especially from the equity that has now built up over the years by the homeowners behind such loans. But that is a story for another time. My main concern is IOFIX becomes a groupthink fund. I also worry what the managers do for an encore in the next couple years as the legacy market shrinks even further and they no longer have that to juice their returns. I am not wedded to IOFIX. If you read the archives you will see I went into junk bonds at the end of December but they petered out five months later and went back into other areas of Bondland.
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    @OldJoe I don’t doubt that Junkster and others have made money on IOFIX. How could they not given its performance? My point is that Morningstar is not wrong for being suspect of the fund. In fact, it gives me more faith in Morningstar’s process that they are willing to look beyond performance in their ratings to consider other factors such as fees. Just because a fund is performing well doesn’t make it a suitable investment for all people or even most people. Ratings should reflect that.
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    AlphaCentric's record as an advisor is pretty awful. IOFIX is only fund with any kind of AUM. Catalyst's record is not much better (though MBXIX is interesting). Both families are associated with Jerry Szilagyi. I honestly wish Garrison Point could find a way to be its own advisor.
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    In a hurry to get out on the trails so don’t have time to check but regarding @BenWP’s thoughtful post above...... aside from IOFIX haven’t some of the AlphaCentric funds been dismal performers with one or two already liquidated?
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    OMG, @Mark, I just assumed the slew of links was posted by @Ted. My bad, once again. @The Shadow (and his/her friends) know(s) and I bow in reverence to his/her expertise. The latter allusion is another key to my age. I humbly accept the apologies as proffered. For a good read on mistaken identity, try Oliver Sacks', "The Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Hat."
    I have not read all the AC prospecti, but I skimmed info on the various investment strategies the firm offers. I am not schooled enough to know if these efforts are "cutting edge" or if they are just so much fluff or window dressing. It strikes me, though, that they may be trying to appeal to the investor who is afraid of missing out (our friend FOMO, rears his head again) on some technological innovation very few of the general public probably understand. I'm a humanities major/professional and I don't know one robot from another, but I'm sure someone is going to make a bundle on them. Therefore, maybe I'd better get on board.
    Here's a summary of another of their funds:
    "The AlphaCentric Symmetry Strategy Fund utilizes a specifically constructed and repeatable set of investment building blocks designed to capture the available risk premiums during periods of broad economic growth, as well as during periods of economic growth risk." I call BS. I don't know one ETF, CEF or MF that purports to hold "repeatable sets of investment building blocks." For all I know, they're Legos. You get the idea without me ranting any further.
    I realize that people I respect here on MFO have had great success in IOFIX and I hope others who might dip a toe into AC's other funds will have similar stellar returns.