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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Biggest bang for your buck: 8 equity funds with the best capture ratios over the entire market cycle
    @DS, yeah, I read Shiller's piece when it appeared (a few days ago) and found it alarming, not all that helpful, not that it was designed to be. ' ... thoughts that investors have about the thoughts of other investors' seemed chiefly a restatement of the hoary beauty pageant analogy, avoiding which is notionally one of the pluses of the CAPE etn. I certainly hope the automatic value churn partly works around animal spirits. A pity regardless to jump from Keynes's famous locution to Trump's self-regard. Shiller naturally is motivated to side with expertise over animal dreams. I was pleased to see his Nobel unmentioned, and that speech of his rather presages the column:
    https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2018/06/shiller-lecture.pdf
  • Biggest bang for your buck: 8 equity funds with the best capture ratios over the entire market cycle
    Hi, David. Shiller had an article in today's (1/5/20) New York Times, if you're interested. He explains the rationale for the Shiller CAPE, notes that it's at its 3rd highest level in history (1929, 1999) and talks a bit about "animal spirits" as an explanation for it.
    He makes the old-guy-with-a-PhD (my people!) argument that we increasingly devalue evidence in favor of "trusting our gut." Maybe. I was intrigued to learn that phrases like "gut reaction" only date to the 1960s and 1970s but I'm not sure that the underlying idea is as new as Dr. Shiller assumes.
    Hi, gmarceau. "There are 11 industry sectors in the S&P 500. The CAPE index ranks them from most expensive to least expensive, based on their 10 year earnings history, and invests in the five least expensive sectors." It's certainly a bit more complex than that, and DoubleLine implements the strategy with derivatives rather than direct investment, but it doesn't strike me as terribly complex. Some critics think the bigger question is whether there's useful information in a sector's 10 year CAPE. I haven't much looked at the question, though perhaps the other David has?
    David
  • Biggest bang for your buck: 8 equity funds with the best capture ratios over the entire market cycle
    Even with u/d symmetry, things can go well (obviously; in a rising market).
    SP500 capture = 1, u/d 100/100.
    CAPE (whose index is SP500) u/d likewise = 1, 103/103. In its 7+y, it adds (to a $10k startpoint) ~$7k above SP500, ~$30k vs ~$23k. That seems a lot of added value.
    DSENX even more than that, with its 1.12 capture. Special bond sauce is the difference from CAPE.
    Is CAPE's automatic monthly operating principle marketing timing, or defensive? Or both? Must reread the P&I article @msf cites. By RGoldsticker (great name) of ABiller & Assoc.
  • Biggest bang for your buck: 8 equity funds with the best capture ratios over the entire market cycle
    Hi, David.
    I simply set the screener using three parameters:
    Category - 12 styles (LCV, etc) plus Equity Income, Aggressive Allocation, Flexible
    Universe - mutual funds or ETFs
    Display - full cycle 5
    You get a warning that there are 1400 resulting funds and the list will be truncated to the 1000 with the highest APR unless you add criteria. I just accepted the top 1000.
    On the results screen, I scroll over to "Capture SP500" and click. That sorts them by that criterion.
    When I shift to a six-year display (because DSENX is 6), it is more or less 70th on the list.
    DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced CAPE DSENX
    Capture 1.12
    Downside capture 102
    Upside capture 114
    APR 15.0
    Does that help?
    David
  • U.S. Securities Regulator Proposes New Rules On Use Of Derivatives In Exchange Traded Funds
    I wonder if this affects / will affect CAPE and DSEEX.
    I remembered that Nocera piece only because one of my kids was in B-school at the time and commencing formal study of VaR, Taleb all the rage. Also I was making then losing money with Novastar. (French taught at that B-school, so also much ultrafine discussion of efficiency in markets.)
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Hi @Starchild,
    Thanks for your comment and question that you directed my way. Many of my American Fund holdings came to me via gift and inheritance with some of the funds dating back a couple of generations thus being in family hands all the way back to my great grandfather. As my great grandfather and grandfather sold off farm land they invested the sale proceeds and spread it out among family members with some of it being invested in American Funds. We also have a policy of not putting all of our eggs in a single basket.
    Starchild I'd like your thoughts on where I overlap. Please consider manager stradegy with your answer as the funds might occupy the same style boxes, etc. but the managers themselves differ using many different investment strategies. Notice I've got growth, value, momentum, contrarian, equity dividend, fixed income of many types, special opportunity, etc.
    I'm posting my sleeve management system along with portfolio positions so you have an understaning of what I actually do own for a better understanding of how I govern family money.
    Consolidated Master Portfolio & Sleeve Management System ... Last Revised on 11/15/2019
    Now being in retirement here is a brief description of my sleeve management system which I organized to better manage the investments held within mine and my wife's portfolios. The consolidated master portfolio is comprised of two taxable investment accounts, two self directed retirement accounts, a health savings account plus two bank savings accounts. With this, I came up with four investment areas. They are a Cash Area which consist of two sleeves ... an investment cash sleeve and a demand cash sleeve. The next area is the Income Area which consist of two sleeves ... an income sleeve and a hybrid income sleeve. Then there is the Growth & Income Area which has more risk associated with it than the Income Area and it consist of four sleeves ... a global equity sleeve, a global hybrid sleeve, a domestic equity sleeve and a domestic hybrid sleeve. Then there is the Growth Area where the most risk in the portfolio is found and it consist of five sleeves ... a global growth sleeve, a large/mid cap sleeve, a small/mid cap sleeve, an other investment sleeve plus a special investment (spiff) sleeve. The size of each sleeve can easily be adjusted, from time-to-time, by adjusting the number of funds held and their amounts. By using the sleeve management system I can get a better picture of my overall investment landscape. I have found it beneficial to Xray each fund, each sleeve, each investment area, and the portfolio as a whole quarterly for analysis. All my funds with the exception of those in my health savings account pay their distributions to the Cash Area of the portfolio. This automatically builds cash in the Cash Area to meet the portfolio's disbursement needs (when necessary) with the residual being left for new investment opportunity. Generally, in any one year, I take no more than a sum equal to one half of my portfolio's five year average return. In this way principal builds over time. In addition, most buy/sell transactions settle from, or to, the Cash Area with some net asset exchanges between funds taking place. My rebalance threshold is + (or -) 2% of my neutral allocation for my Income Area, Growth & Income Area and Growth Area while I generally let the Cash Area float. However, at times, I can tactically position by setting a target allocation that is different from the neutral weighting to overweight (or underweight) an area without having to do a forced rebalance. I do an Instant Xray analysis of the portfolio quarterly and make asset weighting adjustments as I feel warranted based upon my assessment of the market(s), my goals, my risk tolerance, my cash needs, etc. I have the portfolio set up in Morningstar's portfolio manager by sleeve, by each area and the portfolio as a whole for easy monitoring plus I use brokerage account statements, Morningstar fund reports, fund fact sheets along with their annual reports to follow my investments. In addition, I use my market barometer and equity weighting matrix system as a guide to assist me in throttling my equity allocation through the use of equity ballast, or a spiff position, when desired. I also maintain a list of positions to add (A) to, to buy (B), to reduce (R), or to sell (S). Generally, funds are assigned to a sleeve based upon a best fit basis. Currently, my investment focus is to position new money into income generating assets. The last major rebalanced process was started during the 4th Quarter of 2018 and was completed in the 1st Quarter of 2019 with some sleeves being reconfigured along with the movement to a new asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity.
    Portfolio Asset Allocation: Balanced Towards Income ... 20% Cash, 40% Income, 30% Gr & Inc and 10% Growth
    CASH AREA: (Weighting Range 15% to 25%, Neutral 20%, Target 15%, Actual 14%)
    Demand Cash Sleeve ... Cash Distribution Accrual & Future Investment Accrual
    Investment Cash Sleeve ... MMK Funds: AMAXX, GOFXX(B), PCOXX, CD Ladder(R) & Savings
    INCOME AREA: (Weighting Range 35% to 45%, Neutral 40%, Target 40%, Actual 39%)
    Income Sleeve: APIUX(A), BLADX(A), GIFAX, JGIAX(A), NEFZX, PGBAX, PONAX & TSIAX
    Hybrid Income Sleeve: AZNAX(A), BAICX, CTFAX(A), DIFAX, FBLAX, FISCX, FKINX, FRINX, ISFAX, JNBAX & PMAIX
    GROWTH & INCOME AREA: (Weighting Range 25% to 35%, Neutral 30%, Target 30%, Actual 32%)
    Domestic Equity Sleeve: ANCFX, FDSAX, INUTX(A) & SVAAX
    Domestic Hybrid Sleeve: ABALX, AMECX, HWIAX & LABFX
    Global Equity Sleeve: CWGIX, DEQAX, DWGAX(A) & EADIX
    Global Hybrid Sleeve: CAIBX, TEQIX & TIBAX
    GROWTH & OTHER ASSET AREA: (Weighting Range 5% to 15%, Neutral 10%, Target 15%, Actual 15%)
    Large/Mid Cap Sleeve: AGTHX, AMCPX & SPECX
    Small/Mid Cap Sleeve: AOFAX, NDVAX & PMDAX
    Global Growth Sleeve: ANWPX, NEWFX & SMCWX
    Other Investment Sleeve: KAUAX(A), LPEFX & PGUAX
    Equity Ballast & Spiff Sleeve: No position held at this time.
    Currently, I'm heavy in equity awaiting December mutual fund capital gain distributions that will preform an automatic rebalance of sorts by raising my cash allocation as I recieve all mutual fund distributions in cash. This should bubble me back towards a 20%/40%/40% asset allocation. Equities, indeed, had a nice run this year.
    Well ok then Skeet!
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Hi @Starchild,
    Thanks for your comment and question that you directed my way. Many of my American Fund holdings came to me via gift and inheritance with some of the funds dating back a couple of generations thus being in family hands all the way back to my great grandfather. As my great grandfather and grandfather sold off farm land they invested the sale proceeds and spread it out among family members with some of it being invested in American Funds. We also have a policy of not putting all of our eggs in a single basket.
    Starchild I'd like your thoughts on where I overlap. Please consider manager stradegy with your answer as the funds might occupy the same style boxes, etc. but the managers themselves differ using many different investment strategies. Notice I've got growth, value, momentum, contrarian, equity dividend, fixed income of many types, special opportunity, etc.
    I'm posting my sleeve management system along with portfolio positions so you have an understaning of what I actually do own for a better understanding of how I govern family money.
    Consolidated Master Portfolio & Sleeve Management System ... Last Revised on 11/15/2019
    Now being in retirement here is a brief description of my sleeve management system which I organized to better manage the investments held within mine and my wife's portfolios. The consolidated master portfolio is comprised of two taxable investment accounts, two self directed retirement accounts, a health savings account plus two bank savings accounts. With this, I came up with four investment areas. They are a Cash Area which consist of two sleeves ... an investment cash sleeve and a demand cash sleeve. The next area is the Income Area which consist of two sleeves ... an income sleeve and a hybrid income sleeve. Then there is the Growth & Income Area which has more risk associated with it than the Income Area and it consist of four sleeves ... a global equity sleeve, a global hybrid sleeve, a domestic equity sleeve and a domestic hybrid sleeve. Then there is the Growth Area where the most risk in the portfolio is found and it consist of five sleeves ... a global growth sleeve, a large/mid cap sleeve, a small/mid cap sleeve, an other investment sleeve plus a special investment (spiff) sleeve. The size of each sleeve can easily be adjusted, from time-to-time, by adjusting the number of funds held and their amounts. By using the sleeve management system I can get a better picture of my overall investment landscape. I have found it beneficial to Xray each fund, each sleeve, each investment area, and the portfolio as a whole quarterly for analysis. All my funds with the exception of those in my health savings account pay their distributions to the Cash Area of the portfolio. This automatically builds cash in the Cash Area to meet the portfolio's disbursement needs (when necessary) with the residual being left for new investment opportunity. Generally, in any one year, I take no more than a sum equal to one half of my portfolio's five year average return. In this way principal builds over time. In addition, most buy/sell transactions settle from, or to, the Cash Area with some net asset exchanges between funds taking place. My rebalance threshold is + (or -) 2% of my neutral allocation for my Income Area, Growth & Income Area and Growth Area while I generally let the Cash Area float. However, at times, I can tactically position by setting a target allocation that is different from the neutral weighting to overweight (or underweight) an area without having to do a forced rebalance. I do an Instant Xray analysis of the portfolio quarterly and make asset weighting adjustments as I feel warranted based upon my assessment of the market(s), my goals, my risk tolerance, my cash needs, etc. I have the portfolio set up in Morningstar's portfolio manager by sleeve, by each area and the portfolio as a whole for easy monitoring plus I use brokerage account statements, Morningstar fund reports, fund fact sheets along with their annual reports to follow my investments. In addition, I use my market barometer and equity weighting matrix system as a guide to assist me in throttling my equity allocation through the use of equity ballast, or a spiff position, when desired. I also maintain a list of positions to add (A) to, to buy (B), to reduce (R), or to sell (S). Generally, funds are assigned to a sleeve based upon a best fit basis. Currently, my investment focus is to position new money into income generating assets. The last major rebalanced process was started during the 4th Quarter of 2018 and was completed in the 1st Quarter of 2019 with some sleeves being reconfigured along with the movement to a new asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity.
    Portfolio Asset Allocation: Balanced Towards Income ... 20% Cash, 40% Income, 30% Gr & Inc and 10% Growth
    CASH AREA: (Weighting Range 15% to 25%, Neutral 20%, Target 15%, Actual 14%)
    Demand Cash Sleeve ... Cash Distribution Accrual & Future Investment Accrual
    Investment Cash Sleeve ... MMK Funds: AMAXX, GOFXX(B), PCOXX, CD Ladder(R) & Savings
    INCOME AREA: (Weighting Range 35% to 45%, Neutral 40%, Target 40%, Actual 39%)
    Income Sleeve: APIUX(A), BLADX(A), GIFAX, JGIAX(A), NEFZX, PGBAX, PONAX & TSIAX
    Hybrid Income Sleeve: AZNAX(A), BAICX, CTFAX(A), DIFAX, FBLAX, FISCX, FKINX, FRINX, ISFAX, JNBAX & PMAIX
    GROWTH & INCOME AREA: (Weighting Range 25% to 35%, Neutral 30%, Target 30%, Actual 32%)
    Domestic Equity Sleeve: ANCFX, FDSAX, INUTX(A) & SVAAX
    Domestic Hybrid Sleeve: ABALX, AMECX, HWIAX & LABFX
    Global Equity Sleeve: CWGIX, DEQAX, DWGAX(A) & EADIX
    Global Hybrid Sleeve: CAIBX, TEQIX & TIBAX
    GROWTH & OTHER ASSET AREA: (Weighting Range 5% to 15%, Neutral 10%, Target 15%, Actual 15%)
    Large/Mid Cap Sleeve: AGTHX, AMCPX & SPECX
    Small/Mid Cap Sleeve: AOFAX, NDVAX & PMDAX
    Global Growth Sleeve: ANWPX, NEWFX & SMCWX
    Other Investment Sleeve: KAUAX(A), LPEFX & PGUAX
    Equity Ballast & Spiff Sleeve: No position held at this time.
    Currently, I'm heavy in equity awaiting December mutual fund capital gain distributions that will preform an automatic rebalance of sorts by raising my cash allocation as I recieve all mutual fund distributions in cash. This should bubble me back towards a 20%/40%/40% asset allocation. Equities, indeed, had a nice run this year.
  • This is now the best bull market ever
    I am selling / have sold a bit of DSEEX, PONAX, which are my pillars, also some PCI, then leaving those moneys in cash, and also PDVAX and FRIFX (which I'm really going to increase regardless, admiring its longterm steadiness).
    If I am nervy I shall add to BIVRX, another thus far excellent MFO revelation (time to contribute again!). But that's just my greed operating.
    If during these weeks of pondering and noodling the market dropped majorly, I would probably put everything spare asap into CAPE (using Fido, where is possible to do for free) and then, assuming fast recovery, sell without issue.
  • David Snowball's November Commentary Is Now Available
    I remain a Meb fan. He's helped shape the ETF landscape these past 10 years. His seminal paper on trend following, entitled A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation, remains the most downloaded paper on SSRN. His straight-forward books, including The Ivy Portfolio. His podcast, which now exceeds 100 episodes, with some spectacular guests are great. We started following him on MFO with Existential Pleasures of Engineering Beta, when he launched his first Cambria ETFs. He invests in his own strategies. But to one of David's points, the firm now has 11 ETFs and several so far have struggled to beat their category peers, which puts him in some good company. I believe he also considers himself as much a part of the 4th estate as he does a money manager. Maybe that, if there is a conflict there, is part of what David picked-up on in a setting like AAII.
  • Fixed income is still a mystery to many investors
    “Here's a rundown of those who answered "I do not understand it at all" with regard to the following types of bonds: Treasuries, 39%; municipal bonds, 45%; high-yield bonds, 46%; corporate bonds, 51%; structured products, 53%; Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, 63%. Of the 849 respondents who don't own fixed income or don't have any investment portfolio, 44% said they don't buy bonds because they don't understand the different types of securities.”
    I’m a bit unsure of just who comprised the sample group. Assuming it was a random cross-section of the adult population, I’m not surprised at the results. First, many can’t afford to pay the rent - let alone invest. But a good many who own solid mutual funds, perhaps on the advice of a friend, advisor or employer, might not understand the intricacies of the bond market. So much depends on your life experience and amount of time you’ve spent reading or talking about a subject.
    I suppose I could conduct a survey of some common fishing terms like: “down-rigger”, “high-lining”, “slip-sinker” or “cow-bells” and get a similar low percentage of respondents who knew what they were. But, if you grew up in a Great Lakes costal town and fished a little or knew people who did those are all very common and well understood terms.
    From another perspective, I really don’t understand the bond markets. When folks are willing to invest in bonds yielding only 1 or 2 percent - or even in some cases, in bonds that are guaranteed to pay you back less than you invested .... it really does escape my feeble understanding.
  • M*: Investing Close To Home Is Overrated
    Nothing of the kind but I think that you make much ado about little. On the funds homepage they say they seek companies with headquarters in the midwest. However since you singled out Minnesota they have this to say about the state:
    "Minnesota: An Opportunity Rich Landscape for Investors
    Successful investing requires discipline, patience and a singular focus on what matters. Our success over more than eight decades has been built
    on delivering superior long-term investment performance for our clients. While solid investment opportunities can be found in many places
    beyond the borders of Minnesota and the Upper Midwest, our firm’s second president, George Mairs III, recognized that he was surrounded by an abundance of opportunities close at hand. Taking advantage of that fortunate circumstance, investing in what we know, has enabled Mairs & Power and our clients to grow and prosper. We believe that by looking for investment opportunities close at hand, we will continue the Mairs & Power legacy of investment success far into the future."
    White Paper
  • The Closing Bell: Stocks Waver On China Data
    Re: “ Stocks Waver On China Data”
    Does somebody get paid to cook up these silly headlines every day? Yesterday it was BREXIT. The day before that it might have been the lunar cycle. I don’t know. Of course, only a third grader would believe that a single factor “moves” the markets each day, or for that matter, that there’s been any significant movement at all for a long time.
    Truth is the markets have been incredibly stable for a long time now - save perhaps for some nations like China that are hurting from the tariffs. So pretty much nothing happened of consequence in the financial markets today ... or yesterday ... or the day before that. Trying to pretend something important happened borders on insanity.
    My headline: “Markets have gone nowhere for most of the year.”
    - U.S. stock indexes are near where they sat more than a year ago, mid-way thru 2018. For the most part, they’ve retrenched / recovered from the nasty selloff of late 2018.
    - Gold was hot for the first 5-6 months of the year, tacking on $100-$200 and getting up above $1500. But it has in recent weeks slumped back below the $1500 level.
    - Oil has stagnated (fitting I guess for a product derived from dead dinosaurs). Brent and NYMEX have been hugging the line just below $60 for several months now - far below their all time highs of several years earlier.
    - Interest rates fell sharply for a month or so to absurdly low levels. They’ve retrenched those sharp declines in recent weeks but remain abnormally low.
    - Jerome Powell is breathing easier nowadays as the scapegoating of him seems to have abated. DT’s attention and wrath have been diverted away from Chairman Powell’s backside to some - uhmm - other pressing issues.
  • Lipper: Investors Flee Emerging Markets Funds During The Third Quarter
    @BenWP Hah! Actually I had taken my equity position down to 50% a month ago so had been feeling smart until this week. But who knows what the hell the market will do. I just have confidence that the big idiot will screw things up. Thanks for sharing CAPE.
  • Lipper: Investors Flee Emerging Markets Funds During The Third Quarter
    Just a new short-term position in CAPE Initiated in early August. I have owned it before. The last couple of up days have pushed it squarely into the green, but it’s been a rough ride. I may have explained elsewhere that I don’t trade DSENX, but treat it as a core holding. Therefore, no change in my positions in that fund in three different accounts. As you know, we all feel like geniuses when the market goes up!
  • Crashes coming?!
    to god's ear
    do you think warren-buttigieg can win? that does not sound so promising to me. young midwest mayor ...
    it cannot be two women. did you read jcapehart's wapo family reunion piece (in SC, I think, maybe NC? I think everyone is AA, like him; many said no to black candidate, country not ready, and elders --- women --- said no woman, either, 'we tried that and look what happened' ... hence biden's reassuringness).
  • New to MFO & building a Defensive Equity Portfolio...
    @GREGT
    If you come to think that a fund which automatically sells and value-buys within the SP500 world every month might be sort-of defensive (not like low-vol funds and ETFs, though), you will want to take a look at DSENX/DSEEX and the etn they are based on, CAPE. There is much deep diving on them within this forum.
  • How Does A 6% Yield wWith a Tax Break Sound? Try Preferred Stocks!
    This is the latest example of a poor article from a Forbes 'contributor'. Specifically, very poor timing. Where was this guy in late December? Probably busy selling all his preferreds. It is articles like this one with its incredibly poor timing that effectively provides newbies for existing pfd holders to distribute their preferreds.
    Most quality preferred are now trading well above their call/par value, having rocketed in price in reaction to declining yields. Yes, you can clip coupons until a call date arrives, but if rates stay low, those preferreds WILL be called away from you at par. The call price will act like an irresistible magnet as the call date approaches, inevitably pulling down prices.
    Investing in collective vehicles of preferreds (i.e. ETFs, OEFs, CEFs) doesn't escape this simple arithmetic reality. All (most) preferreds held in those vehicles are similarly trading at steep premiums to their call prices.
    OTOH, if (when) rates rise, pfds will fall harder than fixed-duration debt instruments.
    I don't pretend to know where rates are headed. But investor sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish on rates. That bearishness has certainly been reflected in the price you will pay for any preferred offering today...
  • How big must your nest egg be?
    another interesting datapoint about lower SWR probabilities in a time of high p/e; from a place I do not know:
    https://www.crestmontresearch.com/blog/excerpt/5/
    (appears to conform with a kitces piece bee posted a year ago
    https://finpage.blog/2018/02/28/cape-and-safe-withdrawal-rates/ )
  • Vanguard Dividend Growth Reopens. Enter at Will.
    I own both DSENX and CAPE, but I use them differently. The MF is a buy-and-hold in both taxable and Roth accounts our family has. As @davidmoran has pointed out elsewhere, the monthly MF distributions serve to buy more shares regardless of the market's level. CAPE, the ETN, I use as a short to medium term position. My current position represents three buys during the last two weeks' volatility. I don't know how long I might keep this position.