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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Josh Brown: The Biggest Threat To Your Portfolio
    Retirement is beautiful. Truly. And bless my working wife. Woman. Who can dare to claim to understand Her? But I love her, anyway. Almost as much as baseball.
  • Josh Brown: The Biggest Threat To Your Portfolio
    "if this is retirement, sign me up, please! Nothing like a slow moving morning...."
    Yes Puddnhead, I highly reccomend retirement!
  • Josh Brown: The Biggest Threat To Your Portfolio
    Thanks, Linkster!
    Great post....one word.....(genius).....you are your own worst enemy, just as he said. You must play the game to win. The future is not ours to know. It's been hidden from all eyes.
    God bless.
    the Pudd
    p.s. Vacation day here.....if this is retirement, sign me up, please! Nothing like a slow moving morning....
  • In Australia, Retirement Saving Done Right
    From the article:
    "The U.S. is ranked ninth, with Mercer researchers faulting American 401(k) rules that allow savers to borrow from their accounts and take penalty-free distributions as soon as they reach age 59½."
    There is this constant push to keep people working well into their 60's and into their 70's as well. Not all workers want to or can work that long. If the person has saved into their taxed deferred accounts throughout their work history, why not let them leave the work force early. That frees up jobs for the younger folks. I do agree with the idea regarding borrowing from retirement accounts. It should be a last resort.
    As mentioned in another thread recently, travel is a great idea. Being able to do what you want and enjoy your senior years should not be lost. If you enjoy your work then that's fine. But for many, the senior years should be enjoyed with family and friends.
  • In Australia, Retirement Saving Done Right
    FYI: Here’s another Aussie term D.C. lawmakers should get to know: superannuation. That’s what Australia calls its retirement savings system, which in just two decades has become one of the most highly regarded in the world. Since its introduction in 1992, the Superannuation Guarantee program has grown to $1.52 trillion, more than the country’s gross domestic product, with more than 90 percent of workers putting money into the system.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2013-05-30/in-australia-retirement-saving-done-right
  • MW (Merriman): Best target-date funds? Fidelity vs. Vanguard, 04-15-2015
    I couldn't help but notice the title of the column: Fidelity vs. Vanguard, not actively managed vs. passively managed. So why did Merriman do the latter comparison? Fidelity has a series of target date funds that invest in index funds, and have exactly the same underlying ER as Vanguard; 0.16%.
    (To John's point - sometimes Fidelity does not charge more for the same product; they generally match Vanguard in the index arena.)
    There are still a couple of differences though, that Hank alluded to: the glide path of Fidelity funds (whether these index ones, or the ones Merriman chose to use as straw men) continue changing until 15 years past their target date (i.e. you still need growth past age 65). Vanguard's settle into a sleepy 30/70 (stock/bond) split just five years after retirement.
    Then there is the breadth of assets employed. Even these "boring" Fidelity index target funds use TIPs and commodities. (The actively managed Fidelity target funds go further) And still they do this with the same ER. (To be fair, Vanguard adds international bonds, albeit hedged.)
  • Elizabeth Bramwell, Ex-Gabelli Growth Fund Manager, Dies At 74
    Hi OJ. Hats off to you and Catch.
    We put on two additions during the first decade after retirement along with substantial remodeling. Chose mostly to finance at around 3% and let our savings run.
    Both projects lasted about 6 months. For the first, I volunteered to be the "grunt" for the contractor. Spent a miserable summer ripping out walls and ceilings, painting, picking up the old shingles they pitched on the ground and running pickup loads of rubbish to the dump. (Managed to step on more than a few sharp nails in the process.)
    For the second, I was wiser, volunteering to be "electrician" and obtaining the necessary local permit. Got tons of expert advice online. Spent a summer climbing ladders, boring holes through studs, stringing wire, and crawling around under the house in cold dark places. However, it was preferable to the earlier "grunt" work.
    We could use and afford another addition. But, not willing to put up with the pain again. That's why I had a favorable reaction to JohnC's recent suggestion in another thread that retirement money go to traveling.
    Good luck on your project.
  • Elizabeth Bramwell, Ex-Gabelli Growth Fund Manager, Dies At 74
    Hi, Hank.
    We have no demographic data on you folks. On adamant principle, we've disabled the tracking functions of Google Analytics. We know aggregate onsite behavior (for example, how long the average visit is and how many folks are on-site) and some tech stuff (how many folks access us via smartphone, which operating systems and browsers folks use, and what city the router's in). And what we do have can't distinguish folks participating on the discussion board from casual readers or browsers.
    Hmmm... readership has drifted down a tad (23,700 in the past month), we're seeing vigorous traffic from Akershus, Norway (Hilsener! to our 94 Akershusian friends), time-on-site remains high at 5:21, 61.6% of visitors are using Windows, 0.33% of you visit using the Silk browser while only 0.07% use SeaMonkey, the most frequent outbound click was on Charles's table on funds ranked by Bear Market Deviation ... but ages? Nada.
    One of my retired colleagues spent an awful lot of time on campus during retirement. When I asked him why, he said it was simple: "I want to be somewhere that people talk about something other than their health."
    David
  • Elizabeth Bramwell, Ex-Gabelli Growth Fund Manager, Dies At 74
    Junkster said "... All the more reasons why some of us old timers need to start spending and enjoying what we have accumulated over the years. Life is short!".
    AMEN.
    -
    Assuming the age of a great many here to be 65 or over, I'm a little puzzled there isn't greater discussion about withdrawing money and putting proceeds to good use. How often are we as investors faced with a crucial investment decision? Rarely I'd say. By contrast, we make decisions about spending nearly every day of the week. Yet, nary a mention.
    I have some possible explanations. First, the average age of participants may be much lower than envisioned (I'd love to see whatever demographic data David has). If the average age is closer to 35 or 45, than it makes sense so much of the discussion revolves around buying/selling mutual funds, stocks, bonds or other investments. Another possibility is that many older folks who come here may fear they haven't saved enough to meet anticipated retirement needs - and are struggling to play catch-up at a late stage. The third (most likely) explanation is that it just isn't considered appropriate to mention spending on a forum devoted to investing.
    I'd never argue that one should stop investing - not at any age. Even late in retirement folks should be seeking to outperform the measly returns cash and many bonds now offer. And since retirement may well last 30 years or longer, younger retirees still need to be acute to growing the nest-egg. Also, some older investors are focused primarily on growing their assets for the benefit of posterity.
    Thanks Junkster and heezsafe for pointing this out in your recent posts. Just some rambling over coffee this morning.
  • Jonathan Clements: You May Need Less Money Than You Think For Retirement
    Article not available to me, but based upon a lot of intense recent research and direct observation I can tell you that the "big if" is whether or not you will require an extended stay in a nursing home. (Think "dementia", in particular.) Last year I spent lots of time checking out facilities and doing the math with a close relative whose spouse had reached the point where she could not reasonably continue to keep him at home. 1.) These places are very, very expensive -- at least the ones you would want to have a relative staying in. 2.) New ones are springing up everywhere, some stand-alone, others associated with upscale "retirement communities", -- virtually all are for-profit enterprises. The investors building these facilities are not stupid, they see the numbers: more people living longer = more people with dementia etc. And with excellent care, you can live a long time with dementia. ( Not to mention that the rates of long-term care insurance are currently poised to skyrocket off the map.)
    Having been through all the financial scenarios, I can only conclude that if you are in modestly comfortable (but hardly "rich") circumstances, you can live a good life in retirement and leave something to your heirs -- as long as you (and your immediate dependent(s)) avoid long-term disability. And that is the big crap-shoot.
  • Jonathan Clements: You May Need Less Money Than You Think For Retirement
    Ditto JohnC. Exactly!
    (edit) Let's add first-class seating in flight. Than a decent rental car at destination with leather, rag-top and some guts under the hood. Wonderful way to burn through retirement savings. :)
  • Jonathan Clements: You May Need Less Money Than You Think For Retirement
    You SHOULD always spend less Money in retirement than when you were Working, having a mountain of bills/payments, were raising a family and having the
    "Good Times'...
    What are you going to spend money on Now? Any Ideas
  • Jonathan Clements: You May Need Less Money Than You Think For Retirement
    FYI: Conventional wisdom says you need retirement income equal to 80% of your final salary. But there is a decent chance you could happily retire with far less.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/you-may-need-less-money-than-you-think-for-retirement-1428701496
  • Portfolio Rebalancing…For Cowards
    I don't necessarily subscribe to all of this rebalancing stuff. Pretty-much on auto-pilot these days through some very good balanced and hybrid funds (which do the rebalancing for you to some extent). I did add a lot to commodities and natural resources in late December and early January. This speculative move has yet to pay off - but I'm the patient type.
    Generally, the things I hold (except the energy related) haven't done much the past 3-6 months in terms of outperformance and underperformance. Furthermore, rebalancing in retirement often consists of simply pulling IRA distributions from areas that have done the best.
    However, if you are looking for things to rebalance, The link below shows the best 5 and worst 5 market segments for first quarter 2015. Just keep tapping the "next" tab to view.
    Among the best performing fund sectors (which you might want to rebalance out of) are Japan, India, health care and U.S. small cap funds. Among the worst areas. (which you might want to rebalance into) are Latin America, natural resources, energy, utilities and precious metals. Keep in mind, however, that utilities are somewhat of an indirect play on interest rates. (That's because they finance a large portion of their infrastructure by floating bonds.) If you think rates will rise sharply, you may not want to get into them.
    http://www.investmentnews.com/gallery/20150401/FREE/401009999/PH/the-first-quarters-best-and-worst-mutual-fund-groups&Params=Itemnr=8
  • Your own A.U.M. and your hourly rate of pay; after all those long years of investing.....
    Howdy,
    Well, in the early days of one's retirement plan via IRA, 401k, 403b or related; it may be difficult to initially appreciate a rate of return on your money, when the balance is $2,000. Presuming a first, one year return of 8% on the money, $160 does not seem like much for most folks.
    The years roll past, and a working couple has managed to provide for a family and living within their incomes from their excellent budgeting skills; allowing them to continue to set aside monies into retirement funds.
    They maintained their positive investment emotions over the years, even when the investment markets had a few rough periods. They did/do monitor their investments, but were not frequent with moving money here and there. They actually enjoy this monitoring, as it is also an ongoing educational experience.
    Jumping forward to retirement period.
    We find their investible retirement savings to be exactly $500,000 on March 9, 2009.
    They decided, within their rollover IRA accounts, to have a moderate, U.S. centered investment allocation starting with a most simple plan. VTI and BND would have 50% of the monies allocated to each fund. They would monitor these choices and make adjustments as needed, based upon the results.
    The combined annualized return between these 2 funds over the past 6 years is about 10%.
    The numbers: March 2009 - March 2015
    --- 1st year, + $50,000 gain
    --- 2nd year, + $55,000 gain
    --- 3rd year, + $60,500 gain
    --- 4th year, + $66,550 gain
    --- 5th year, + $73,205 gain
    --- 6th year, + $80,525 gain
    Total current value = $885,780
    Total current gain over the 6 year period = $385,780
    They calculated the following fun excercise regarding their invested monies versus their time; another very precious commodity. They were curious with their time spent to monitor and perhaps take any actions with their investment holdings; as to what this would mean in terms of an hourly rate of pay for their efforts.
    Upon review, this couple determined they spend an average of 20 hours per week with investment business information; in written and television form. Keeping in mind that they don't really consider this a chore, as they both enjoy keeping up to date and informed.
    Twenty hours a week of time becomes 1,040 hours a year. With this in place, the following numbers were determined as to an hourly rate of pay:
    --- 1st year = $48/hour
    --- 2nd year = $53/hour
    --- 3rd year = $58/hour
    --- 4th year = $64/hour
    --- 5th year = $70/hour
    --- 6th year = $77/hour
    Overall average of the 6 years = $62/hour
    Obviously, they found these numbers quite pleasing; and more than any hourly pay rate they had received during their working careers.
    Well, another view; at least for this house, as to the value of saving and investing; and how it relates in the long run, to a part-time, post-retirement pay scale for working from the comfort of your own home. :)
    Hoping your hourly pay rate for the time spent monitoring and educating yourself for now or the future, to help your investments grow properly, into enough Assets Under Management; that you are well rewarded for your efforts.
    All numbers should be accurate. Please let me know if the math has a problem, as I can always blame the HP-12C calculator.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • 1st Quarter MFO Ratings Update
    All Search Tools have now been updated with performance data through March.
    The MFO Fund Dashboard contains all funds profiled through April commentary.
    Some notable funds on the Three Alarm list, which examines only absolute return within category, include:
    Greenspring (GRSPX)
    American Century One Choice 2025 A (ARWAX)
    American Century One Choice 2035 A (ARYAX)
    Third Avenue International Value Instl (TAVIX)
    The Cook & Bynum Fund (COBYX)
    Muhlenkamp (MUHLX)
    Fairholme (FAIRX)
    Valley Forge (VAFGX)
    Hussman Strategic Growth (HSGFX)
    Hussman Strategic International (HSIEX)
    AMG Managers Brandywine Advs Mid Cap Gr (BWAFX)
    Royce Partners Svc (RPTRX)
    Royce Premier Invmt (RYPRX)
    Delafield Fund (DEFIX)
    FpA Capital (FPPTX)
    Paradigm Value (PVFAX)
    Royce Low Priced Stock Svc (RYLPX)
    Royce Micro-Cap Invmt (RYOTX)
    Royce Select I Invmt (RYSFX)
    Royce 100 Svc (RYOHX)
    Royce Heritage Svc (RGFAX)
    Royce Pennsylvania Mutual Invmt (PENNX)
    Artisan Small Cap Value Investor (ARTVX)
    Ave Maria Opportunity (AVESX)
    Royce Global Value Svc (RIVFX)
    Royce Select II Invmt (RSFDX)
    Wintergreen Investor (WGRNX)
    Of Royce's 27 funds, nine are Three Alarm.
    Pacific Advisors has five Three Alarm Funds...they only offer six. From its website:
    We are a family of six focused mutual funds, each designed to meet a different need and to complement each other when building a diversified investment plan. Whether you are just starting out in your career, or enjoying retirement today, we deliver top quality service and a wide range of investments to meet your changing needs.
    Here is a snapshot (from MFO Premium beta site) of their lifetime performance:
    image
    Really horrible family of funds, seems to me. Why would anyone buy them?
    Vanguard offers 150 funds. How many are on the Three Alarm list? None. I find that remarkable. How many are on the Honor Roll? 32. I find that remarkable too.
    A look at just-turned-three Great Owls, finds:
    Guinness Atkinson Dividend Builder (GAINX)
    Rainier International Discovery Instl (RAIIX)
    DFA World Core Equity Institutional (DREIX)
    Seafarer Overseas Gr and Income Instl (SIGIX)
    Wasatch Frontier Emerg Sm Countrs Inv (WAFMX)
    PIMCO Total Return Active EtF (BOND)
    AQR TM Large Cap Momentum Style I (ATMOX)
    Vanguard Target Retirement 2060 Inv (VTTSX)
    2060?!
    A total of 8159 funds (oldest share class only, at least one year old) are included in this quarter's update.
    We also updated the look a bit to support new site theme...here's example of Risk Profile output:
    image
    Enjoy.
    c
  • T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund to close to new investors (For Ted)
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1002624/000100262415000005/hsfstatutorysticker481-20154.htm
    497 1 hsfstatutorysticker481-20154.htm
    T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund
    Supplement to Prospectus Dated May 1, 2014
    Effective June 1, 2015, the T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund will be closed to new investors. Accordingly, the prospectus is updated as follows.
    Under “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” in section 1, the following is added:
    Subject to certain exceptions, the fund will be closed to new investors and new accounts after the close of the New York Stock Exchange on June 1, 2015. Investors who already hold shares of the fund after June 1, 2015, may continue to purchase additional shares.
    Under “More Information About the Fund and Its Investment Risks” in section 3, the following is added:
    Subject to certain exceptions, the fund will close to new investors and will no longer accept new accounts after the close of the New York Stock Exchange (normally 4 p.m. ET) on Monday, June 1, 2015.
    Additional share purchases are permitted for investors holding shares of the fund directly with T. Rowe Price at the close of the New York Stock Exchange on June 1, 2015, as well as for participants in an employer-sponsored retirement plan where the fund serves as an investment option. New T. Rowe Price IRAs in the fund may be opened only through a direct rollover from an employer-sponsored retirement plan. Investors already holding shares through intermediaries generally will be able to purchase additional shares. If permitted by T. Rowe Price, fund shares may also be purchased by new investors in intermediary wrap, asset allocation, and other advisory programs when the fund is an existing investment in the intermediary’s program. If you are purchasing shares through an intermediary, check with the intermediary to confirm your eligibility to purchase shares of the fund.
    The fund’s closure to new investors does not restrict existing shareholders from redeeming shares of the fund. However, any shareholders who redeem all fund shares in their account would not be permitted to purchase additional shares until the fund is reopened to new investors. Transferring ownership to another party or changing an account registration may also restrict the ability to purchase additional shares.
    The fund reserves the right, when in the judgment of T. Rowe Price it is not adverse to the fund’s interests, to permit certain types of investors to open new accounts in the fund, to impose further restrictions, or to close the fund to any additional investments, all without prior notice.
    The date of this supplement is April 8, 2015.
    F114-041 4/8/2015
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  • The Real Point Of Active Investing
    Investing, be it money and/or time is to obtain a personal goal, yes?
    TIME investing:
    I spent a fair amount of time investing in a particular educational path.
    I wanted to have the ability to be within a work area that I enjoyed and that would also provide a "decent" livelyhood.....wage.
    That did happen (the career); but I was not part of a union workforce, and I knew at a young age that I would not have a bountiful pension program that was very evident in a large, union wage state as Michigan was during my work period. I would not have any health benefit, nor a cost of living index attached to my retirement.
    I/we knew we would and should be prepared to provide for ourselves monetarily in the future; for any shortcomings or unknowns from any other income source. We did not and still do not have any rich relative who will be dropping a boatload of money into our laps upon their passing; and we still have not had the big win in the lotto.
    MONETARY investing:
    From the above arose active investing of our monies that were in excess of our needs from our budget.
    As to active investing, well, as @Old_Joe noted too; I don't know what else one could name the direct involvment of investing; other than one being active. One decides; plain and simple about how to guide the monies, eh?
    When I use the word "active" here, it is only in the sense of being involved with the decision of "what" for an investment. We're not very fussy about the sector(s) where the capital appreciation arrives. We have active, passive and etf's.
    Take care,
    Catch