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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Scott Burns: If Retirement Is So Terrible Where Are The Riots ?
    FYI: I’ve lost count of the surveys telling us that all Americans will suffer deprivation when they retire. I'm sure you have, too. A recent Harris Poll found that 74 percent of Americans worried about retirement. The National Retirement Risk Index now indicates that 53 percent of Americans are “at risk.”
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://assetbuilder.com/scott_burns/if_retirement_is_so_terrible_where_are_the_riots
  • Fund choices for newly-hired college prof
    FWIW, I forewent (if that's a word) the annuity and still have the TIAA real estate fund in my 403b at a prior university employer (St Louis U). Perhaps they think I'll roll over eventually into an annuity, but I didn't have that understanding. In fact, as I rolled my money out of the annuity portion of my funds, I rolled it into the real estate fund. I had left that university for the private world temporarily, so that may have allowed this maneuver. As I recall,the transfer occurred at 10%/yr, so they tried to protect their participants.
    A few years back that institution negotiated a good array of funds from other fund companies generally with the lowest ER each offered. My current employer offers TIAA, but only the usual choices, and I haven't chosen to play. TIAA apparently will yield to pressure if the institution is big enough, but I have no idea how this was accomplished.
    I agree with those recommending the lowest cost index funds she can find. While bond funds may make one feel a bit better in the crashes, I don't see the point at 27, regardless of experts' recommendations. Start balancing 15 years (or 10) before retirement by changing the choices in your automatic investments.
  • Fund choices for newly-hired college prof
    +1 ...I don't know much about the other two vendors, but the the Real Estate account is unique and makes TIAA_CREF a worthy option.
    TIAA-CREF would be my recommendation. Their programs come in many flavors, not all of which offer the same combination of retirement class funds and annuities. As a general matter, they have a nice series of target-date funds that are built purely around index funds. And their Real Estate account is, literally, in a class by itself. It invests directly in real estate rather than just in real estate securities. It utterly crashed in the 2008 market crisis; that was one disastrous 24 months period sandwiched by 18 years of remarkably steady returns.
    David
  • How Much Diversification Is Too Much ?
    FYI: (Click On Article Title From Google)
    With all the investment options that advisers are pushing these days, you can easily get the impression that you are a slacker doomed to subpar performance unless your retirement portfolio is brimming with every asset imaginable.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/#q=how+much+diversification+is+too+much+wsj
  • The average investor has lagged cash over the past 20 years??
    Hi Guys,
    This exchange really revolves around Dalbar’s consistent findings that the “Average Investor” almost universally underperforms the mutual funds that he buys by a huge number. Often this mythical “Average Investor” captures only between 20% and 40% of his mutual fund’s quoted returns. That’s devastating from a retirement perspective.
    Our buddy, Vintage Freak, paints a dismally dark and uncompromisingly bleak portrait of the “Average Investor’s” investment acumen. Initially, his representative caricature has a moderately conservative investment approach. Unfortunately, he abandons his good intentions and does not stay the course. He fails the persistence and the patience tests.
    His intemperate market actions quickly unmask him both as an inept and an unlucky market timer. The marketplace is a challenging task master, and our “Average Investor” pays the price for his imprudent and whimsical activity, a least according to Vintage Freak’s profile. It’s a sad tale of a dysfunctional investor, but plausible.
    Rather than assembling some ad hoc stories, I thought it would be a worthwhile exercise to explore the wisdom or foolishness of our “Average Investor’s” game plan using Monte Carlo-based analyses. Thousands of reasonable cases can be generated and examined in just a few minutes.
    Towards that end, I ran 4 cases on the Portfolio Visualizer’s website. If you wish to put their Monte Carlo simulator to use on your portfolio possibilities, here is a Link to it:
    http://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/monte-carlo-simulation
    The 4 cases that I input were designed to examine the benefits (or not) of a Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy compared to a full immediate commitment of monies, and the benefits (or not) of a broadly diversified portfolio contrasted against a single Large Cap Blend position.
    I completed this brief study using the parameters that Vintage Freak invented. The time period was 20 years. I used the site’s statistical market category historical returns option without inflation for simplicity. The Monte Carlo code runs 10,000 random cases for each scenario.
    For comparative purposes I postulated a diversified portfolio with 30% Large Cap Blend, 10% Small Cap Value, 10% REIT, 10% International Stock, 20% Short Term Corporate Bond, and 20% Total Bond holdings. According to the Portfolio Visualizer’s output, this diversified portfolio only compromised expected returns by a small amount (10.43% vs. 11.79%), but substantially attenuated the portfolio’s volatility (10.66% vs. 17.96%). Diversification is close to a free lunch.
    The simulations demonstrated the wisdom of Dollar Cost Averaging over an immediate full commitment of money by a small margin. It is a small victory, but it is above a noise level.
    The benefits from portfolio diversification were magnificent. The median returns for the diversified portfolio outdistanced those from the concentrated Large Cap Blend pace-horse by more than a factor of two for both the DCA and the Immediate full investment scenarios.
    These analyses took only a few minutes to complete on the Monte Carlo simulator. And it was fun to do. I encourage all you guys to play what-if games with this excellent and practical investment tool. Monte Carlo was specifically designed during World War II to explore uncertain, complex events. It’s fully within Monte Carlo’s competency wheelhouse for the non-predictability of the marketplace. Learn and prosper.
    I hope this little drill is helpful for a puzzled and perplexed someone out there in MFO space.
    Best Wishes.
  • Fund choices for newly-hired college prof
    TIAA-CREF would be my recommendation. Their programs come in many flavors, not all of which offer the same combination of retirement class funds and annuities. As a general matter, they have a nice series of target-date funds that are built purely around index funds. And their Real Estate account is, literally, in a class by itself. It invests directly in real estate rather than just in real estate securities. It utterly crashed in the 2008 market crisis; that was one disastrous 24 months period sandwiched by 18 years of remarkably steady returns.
    David
  • Best market or sector to invest now, emerging, broad U.S., real estate, International, health
    Domestic Energy/Heath-Bio
    https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA:IEO&ei=xj3sU6CECYbPrQGu_4HwCA
    https://www.google.com/finance?q=MUTF:FRAK&ei=xj3sU6CECYbPrQGu_4HwCA
    http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/energy-limited-partnership/$FOCA$LP.aspx
    http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/equity-energy/$FOCA$EE.aspx
    http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/health/$FOCA$SH.aspx
    http://etfdb.com/index/health-care-select-sector-index/
    An Economist's Perspective From Mesirow Financial's Diane C Swonk
    "I debate with my colleagues on economics,
    politics and psychology about the nature
    of the changes that we are seeing: if they
    are “cyclical,” then the effects of the
    changes will be short-lived, and over within
    a few months or quarters; or, if they
    “structural,”then the effects of what we are
    seeing will take much longer to play out;
    it will take years to see the full impact and
    could affect the lives of our children as well
    as ourselves. This report takes a closer look at some of
    the structural changes that we see emerging,
    and how they are likely to affect the pace
    and composition of growth going forward.
    Technically we have shifted from a recovery
    into an expansion. Waiting for a more
    pronounced recovery, however, has been a
    bit like waiting for Godot. Much of that
    is because of the structural shifts we are
    seeing in everything from a slowdown
    across emerging markets, most notably in
    China, to the ongoing challenges that the
    Eurozone faces, and what those shifts mean
    for monetary policy."
    CHICAGO, August 13, 2014 – In the August issue of Themes on the Economy®, Mesirow Financial' s Chief Economist Diane Swonk muses on economic challenges and burdens that baby boomers are leaving for the millennial generation. "This will no doubt trigger some backlash, particularly among younger workers who will have to pay more into the system to keep the promises made, but they will not get much (if anything) in government-sponsored retirement benefits for themselves."
    And, don't look to make it up in stock market, technology or housing bubbles; the Federal Reserve is keeping a much closer eye on the banks it regulates. Chair Janet "Yellen has talked about higher capital requirements and more conservative underwriting standards as ways that the Fed could deflate emerging bubbles. She has also praised the use of regulations targeted at tempering the rise in home prices..." The Fed plans to exit its QE3 program gradually, but the "fear is that the economy is more sensitive to rate hikes now than it was in the past. If the Fed acts too aggressively, it risks leveling the whole forest."
    The picture looks different in other parts of the world, too. China will still represent opportunity but competition as well, and not just on the economic front, as it increases military spending. Swonk also cautions that, "stability in the Eurozone is illusory," with "the ongoing risk of deflation" and the effects on sovereign debt.
    http://www.mesirowfinancial.com/economics/swonk/themes/themes_0814.pdf
    Everything is Good!
    Tonight's Headline
    Shares, bonds rally as investors bank on ENDLESS stimulus.
    Reuters By By Wayne Cole
    2 hours ago
    http://news.yahoo.com/asia-shares-investors-bank-more-stimulus-013020693--finance.html
  • Paul Merriman: Make Your Kid Rich For A $! A Day
    It achieves a most amazing result when the author simply dismisses inflation because Charlotte probably will be able to add to her investments through her adult life. That's great for Charlotte, it means she's earning more than it costs her to live, but I thought we were talking about what we as parents or grandparents can do for Charlotte by contributing $1 each day for 18 years. If I did the math right, if we use the Fed's target rate of 2% inflation, then her $4.2 million at age 65 is worth a little less than $1.2 million in today's terms. Its still not an insignificant sum, but inflation can't simply be dismissed because Charlotte will add to her investments.
    My older kids were lucky enough to inherit a bit of money from their great grandmother when they were young and I invested $4000 in PRHSX for my last one on the day she was born. I don't really want my kids to think about those gifts as retirement money, but for whatever they decide I'd hope they've at least had a decent head start.
  • William Bernstein Discusses Tilting
    thanks mrdarcey , that's good
    Apparently also in this new book, Rational Expectations, he presents his 'forecast' for future performance by asset class. Would be nice to see that. Something along the lines of what GMO does, although I don't know if he goes out 7 years like GMO does, or has chosen some other time frame.
    Also, he recently came out with a booklet called something like "If You Can", where he presents the three fund portfolio [Vanguard Total Stock Market; Vanguard Total International Stock Index, and Vanguard Total Bond Market Index fund] as a simple and effective way to invest for retirement, especially if you are new to the workforce.
  • new frontier for MLPs
    yes sir work for govt for 10 yrs now as nurse in healthcare @ Veteran hospital.
    Their g fund is the best if you are near retirement. my portfolio [41 years old] divided equally in portion I, C, 2040 funds, and large cap/ 20% split in [10% G funds/10% and Money market, proximately 75-80s% in stocks and 20s% in fixed income.
    probably retire in 20s+ yrs so don't mess w/ it until near retirements
    their fees for the funds etfs are maginal/good reasonable [barclay] company that manage the funds/
    one of my colleague at work just retire last wk, he is 70s yr old, he was very greedy and put all his 650sk in china and i fund in 2007 prior the crash. now his portfolio is about 760s after the the rise and more distrubutions, he has learnt his lesson and he is 100% G funds now prior to retirement which is the best thing he did few months prior to retirement...
    their 2030s or 2040 or 2050 funds are also very good if your wifey want to play 'couch potato to investment game' and don't have to do much - stay passive and active at same time
  • 4 Of The Best ETFs For Your Portfolio
    In my retirement portfolio .I use etfs mainly for sectors or enhancing managed funds I own. I own IYE, IYJ, PJP (one of two faves), PKW (other fave), RHS, VNQ, XLP and VIG. I added VIG since when I moved to Merrill, I could no longer add to VDIGX which I owned, but VIG is pretty close.
  • Dividend Payers Attractive Again As Bond Yields Fall
    How much are you willing to take for this scenario in retirement?
    People love insurance...especially in retirement. LT treasuries are insurance against equity risk and maybe a number of other kinds of risks. If you buy a 20 yr treasury individually at age 65 it will mature just in time for longevity risk to come due at 85. With no loss of face value and a coupon paid along the way to offset inflation. If you prefer a fund, buy a Zero Coupon Treasury fund. The fund actually liquidates in this same manner. BTTRX is one that "matures" in 2025.
    To me its just insurance. EDV is "equity insurance". I'm bringing this up just after a small fire (market hiccup). Look at what the value of "equity insurance" really looks like. Here's EDV in 2009 when VTI got really burned:
    image
    How much "equity insurance" does someone need? Hmm...now that's a good question to ask someone a lot smarter than me. Please don't ask an insurance saleman.
  • Dividend Payers Attractive Again As Bond Yields Fall
    It all looks very inviting and gives me a sense of timing or making the correct choice when the opportunity looks poor. Bond have not gone in the direction expected so you are a winner. How much are you willing to take for this scenario in retirement?
  • Managed Accounts: Too Pricey For Retirees
    FYI: Managed accounts—in which 401(k) participants hire professionals to invest their retirement assets—are increasingly popular. But are they worth it?
    A new report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office concludes that while these accounts can deliver higher returns and lower risk to 401(k) participants, they also charge higher fees that can offset some or all of their advantages.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/encore/2014/08/05/managed-accounts-too-pricey-for-retirees/tab/print/
  • More on the Portfolio Sleeve Management System
    I think that the bucket system is quite different from the sleeve approach being used by Old_Skeet and Old-Joe. As JohnChisum states, there are usually at least three different time buckets and the investments in each bucket are selected based on what the contents of the bucket are going to be used for. Morningstar uses Bucket 1 to cover two years of retirement expenses and that consists of cash, CD's, & safe ST bond funds. Bucket 2 for years 3 - 10 consists of mostly stable bond funds, including some TIP's, and possibly a conservative allocation fund like Vanguard Wellesley. Bucket 3 for years 11 -25 consists of mostly equity investments along with riskier bond funds like Loomis Sayles Bond and possibly a commodity fund. Bucket 2 is used to replenish Bucket 1 when needed and Bucket 3 is used to replenish Bucket 2 when needed. The bucket system seems more geared to the fact that withdrawals are occurring during retirement although I guess it could also be used during the accumulation phase in a slightly modified form.
  • More on the Portfolio Sleeve Management System
    I totally agree VF. I believe that cap size is becoming a bit irrelevant these days. It has been some time since I bought a fund based on cap size. It is also true that one can go nuts when they have a 10% return and their friend has a 12% return. It means nothing. It is all dependent on your investment outlook and risk tolerance.
    I have found this sleeve thread very informative and it could be very useful as I head into retirement age.
  • How much is too much (GPEOX)?
    My situation is much different as I am still 16 years from full retirement and my wife is 20 years away. We keep a 60/40 portfolio...we are happy with overall returns and we sleep at night. We probably keep a much higher percentage of global smallcap in our portfolio than most...approx. 20%.
    Doing the same as previous posters with GPROX as it looks like a future hard close will not allow additions to retirement accounts through 3rd party platforms such as TDA.
  • Research Paper: Determining The Optimal Fixed Annuity For Retirees: Immediate Versus Deferred
    FYI: This paper contrasts the relative efficiency of single premium immediate annuities (SPIAs) and deferred income annuities (DIAs) for a variety of retirement scenarios. The analysis considers not only traditional nominal SPIAs and DIAs, but also includes variations with inflation riders and period certain benefits.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.onefpa.org/journal/Pages/AUG14-Determining-the-Optimal-Fixed-Annuity-for-Retirees-Immediate-versus-Deferred.aspx
  • Can You Afford To Retire Early ? Are You Saving Enough ?
    It may be obvious but the link is to a different article. Some of the comments are cute, such as:
    You should ask yourself these three questions:
    Do you have enough?
    Have you had enough?
    Do you have enough to do?
    Jan Cullinane, author, The Single Woman's Guide to Retirement
  • Interesting fund commentaries to share
    One of the more interesting funds in my retirement portfolio is WAGTX. I just finished reading the latest quarterly commentary. Ya gotta love a fund that states:
    "Summarizing, this was a quarter in which almost nothing worked very well for us. We underperformed in our three most overweighted sectors—information technology, health care and consumer discretionary—where our sharpest stock-picking has been in the past. And while almost half of our stocks were up during the quarter, just more than half
    were down and among those decliners were two of our top holdings, which fell double digits"
    Read the following for some candor that often is lacking in other fund reports.
    https://secure.wasatchfunds.com/Our-Funds/~/media/Docs-Fund/MgrComments/WAGTX.ashx
    It's a keeper for me, the ride is not always smooth, but not much is better than Wasatch funds.
    Would love to see some other commentaries that you find interesting.