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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • This Tale of Humira Made Me Doubt My Healthcare Holdings
    Your article is behind a paywall.
    My investment in the health sector is primarily FSMEX. I don't know if the device market works like the drug market. I invested in FSMEX after spending some time around hospitals and observing how they burn though stuff at an incredible rate. That's in addition to all the fancy gadgets they have.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Yesterday I sold BAC and JPM, and will be buying either BX or MS. I also sold RPMGX (tax loss) and will be buying FSMEX. Problem is, I'm just not sure WHEN I'll be making those purchases. I think we're in for a really bumpy ride so cash is good.
  • TBO Capital
    As one digs a little, it just keeps getting better.
    It seems that the 10% performance fee used to be 11%:
    https://prdistribution.com/news/tbo-capital-announces-reduction-of-performance-fees-for-all-balances-2.html
    The application form lets you send in money and lets you make daily withdrawals. That's an open end fund. But the Terms and Conditions page says that this is a "closed ended [sic] mutual fund".
    How many decades of industry experience does it take to differentiate between an open end fund and a closed "ended" fund?
    The page goes on to say that "It offers monthly dividends to investors instead of growth option i.e. increase in NAV (share) price."
    This begs the question: is it selling shares of its underlying holdings every month and distributing proceeds to keep its NAV from growing?
    I think I'll stop now. This is like shooting fish in a barrel. I'll leave with a couple of questions based on this excerpt:
    Outperformed 95% of peers over the last six years with less risk.
    ...
    Long-tenured advisors of three PhDs and one MD in internal medicine
    What are the 5% of health care fund peers who have made more than 50% annualized over the last six years? Or is this "outperforming 95% of peers" just a made up figure to make it seems that the 50% returns reported are not equally fictitious?
    M* premium screener returns no funds of any type with 50% returns over the past five years.
    Stringing together the best performing health care fund in each of the last six calendar years, e.g. FSMEX (8.68% in 2016), ETIHX (45.83% in 2017) and so on, one achieves only a 36% annualized return. All actual health care funds returned less than my cherry-picked combo.
    Who are the PhDs and MD? TBO Capital names only four principals, and none of them hold any sort of doctorate degree according to their Linked In profiles.
  • Your buy - sells July forward
    I bought a very small amount of SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) and plan to let it sit for many years through the inevitable ups and downs. Also added to SHGTX, FSMEX, FSCSX and MSFT and I'll likely add to these positions if the market continues to puke. My only concern is that the manager of SHGTX (Paul Wick) is getting on in years and might not be there much longer. Hope they retire his jersey, he's a Hall of Famer. Looks like a strong bench though.
  • What's on your buy list?
    Been doing a lot of shopping lately.
    Last March I sold out my wife's inheritance, which was mostly in a regional utility. She has hopes of buying a small house in a location cooler than Arizona. So we decided to invest 25% of her funds.
    Her priorities were dividends and green investing as her "speculative" bet. And then some assets set aside to grow, i.e S&P 500, tech, and med tech. So this is what we agreed to:
    The following is copied from the rough notes I have in a spread sheet. Good thing I'm not being graded for formatting.
    20.00% Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF™ SCHD
    10.00% VictoryShares US SmCp Hi Div Vol Wtd ETF CSB
    8.00% Fidelity® Select Medical Tech and Devcs FSMEX
    8.00% Fidelity® 500 Index FXAIX
    5.00% Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield ETF FYLD
    5.00% GLFOX Lazard Global Infrastructure
    5.00% WisdomTree Intl Hdgd Qual Div Gr ETF IHDG
    5.00% SPDR® Russell 1000® Yield Focus ETF ONEY
    5.00% Invesco High Yield Eq Div Achiev™ ETF PEY
    5.00% Principal Real Estate Securities Inst PIREX
    5.00% Invesco S&P 500® Eql Wt Cnsm Stapl ETF RHS
    5.00% Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight Utilts ETF RYU
    2.00% FSCSX
    2.00% TDV tech dividend
    2.00% Columbia Seligman Global TECH
    2.00% FTEC tech index
    1.00% TAN Solar
    1.00% First Trust Water ETF
    1.00% First Trust NASDAQ® Cln Edge®Offsetting
    1.00% iShares Global Clean Energy ETF
    1.00% Invesco Global Clean Energy ETF
    1.00% Invesco Global Water ETF
    As you can see, I bought baskets to represent tech and "green." I see enough moving parts in those fields that I wanted to encompass a variety of theses. For the alt energy funds I specifically avoided those with large stakes in Tesla. And also avoided China as well as I could.
    I have also been buying into beaten down funds in our IRA's, and my taxable account, whittling down our cash holdings. I tarried too long during the COVID debacle, so wanted to make a more muscular entry. Still plenty of cash for cushion, and for buying, if the autumn inflation and elections push markets another leg down; which would not surprise me in the least.
  • Any Dippers today
    Sold out of FSMEX, which was a 2021 addition. I intend to buy this back at some point later in the year, but this tax-loss sale counterbalances a few capital gains from January.
  • Superb Interview - Ron Baron - Squawk Box
    Hi BenWP,
    Good for you. I'm a Ron fan just like I was a Michael Price fan years ago. BCHCX was on my buy list but with healthcare slowing the last 2 years, I did not buy. But did add to FSMEX and FSPHX and am waiting for a pop in healthcare. Will add to BWBFX on weakness. And I like owning funds others don't want, especially young funds because they tend to run with good managers.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • What are you buying - if anything?
    Recently added money to FSMEX, FYLD, PEY, IHDG, CSB, SCHD in my taxable account after some tax-loss harvesting from two large stakes in muni funds. I still have lots of dry powder.
    I also plan on making some purchases in my IRA in the near future. Particularly funds that have been punished severely. I still have dry powder from selling most of my bond funds back in February 2020.
    I typically rebalance, and rearrange the deck chairs, in the early part of the year. But this year I have been working on a large reconfiguration of our vegetable garden.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Ed Yardeni mentioned Exoskeleton Technology...very cool!
    exoskeleton-and-exosuits-in-the-workplace
    eksobionics
    top-10-companies-in-exoskeletons-market
    A fund like FSMEX may be exposed to this type of Technological Innovation.
  • PING CATCH
    Hi Puddnhead,
    Ya want me to get naked in front of everyone with my portfolio, eh? :)
    A few notes: At this time, all of our market holdings are either T-IRA or Roth accounts, so any position changes do not involve taxation considerations. We generally do not hold more that 5 investments at any given time, with 10 being a maximum; as beyond this number tends to not have a meaningful impact (positive or negative) upon a portfolio. An EXCEPTION would be: if one wants 25% of a portfolio to be in health related; and can find 3-5 funds/etf's that don't have a lot of overlap; this would be okay.
    Our house continues to favor health and technology. FSMEX, IMHO; is a fund that favors both of these areas. FSPHX, FHLC and similar funds are more broad based health funds. Although the ARK funds, ARKK in particular; has a lot of rocky performance and bad press at this time; the ARKG etf has become fairly inexpensive at this time and travels into another favorable long term area (IMHO) of medicine/health/tech. (genomics and related). Some of these companies will fail, but others will prosper and/or become the targets of M&A.
    Generally, one can expect decent distributions (div's, cap gains) from the healthcare area. So, a bonus, eh?
    AND YES, health care funds have taken a hit with much else, for 2022.
    Now: We no longer have FSPHX, which was replaced several years ago with FHLC.
    FHLC is 21% of the total portfolio
    FSMEX is 15% of the total portfolio
    You mentioned a poor year....2021....for health. I'm okay with the 2021 total returns shown in the below chart.
    CHART of FSPHX, FSMEX and FHLC (Fido health etf) for 2021.
    I've sure as heck forgotten something to jabber about, for this post.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • PING CATCH
    Hi Catch,
    Hope all is well with you and yours. If I remember right, your portfolio has a lot of health care in it. Again, if memory serves, you own FSPHX and FSMEX. I also own health care and it comprises a large portion of my portfolio. So, just wondering what you think about the smackdown of late after a poor year last year. Holding steady, adding, selling....what? I think things will get better into the spring. It's the next fall and winter I worry about. Again, any comments appreciated Big Guy. Thanks.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • Investment strategy for an 18 year old
    Hi @davidrmoran et al
    Being curious........
    A chart of VONG v QQQ v FTEC v FSMEX starting at Oct. 2013 to date. The chart begin is limited to the inception date of FTEC.
    Catch
    Sure. Why not put it all in Apple and Pfizer, then? Or go w Cathie W.
    He's 18. I would want my son or grandson to be in something over the many decades ahead way more diversified (sector-diversified, that is, including nontech) than what you graphed for the last 9y. VONE and VONG will do that, I am thinking.
  • Investment strategy for an 18 year old
    Hi @davidrmoran et al
    Being curious........
    A chart of VONG v QQQ v FTEC v FSMEX starting at Oct. 2013 to date. The chart begin is limited to the inception date of FTEC.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Investment strategy for an 18 year old
    Hi Ron, Nice to read what you have written about the desires of this young man.
    I've pushed Roth IRA's for minors and +18 year olds with our extended family and friends for years. Sadly, few takers for follow up information.
    I'm biased towards Fidelity and their quality operation. (wife and I since 1978 with T-IRA's). The online set up is clean and easy, and there are no minimum $ for the vast number of offerings, including active managed Fido funds.
    I hand held two mid 30's relatives 2 years ago starting a Roth. They were both a bit more motivated as their mother provided them "seed" money to get their arse's in gear. They have 401k and 403b plans they contribute some money to, but the Roth is a nice extra. They are able to be aggressive (and should be at their age); so all money is invested in QQQ etf.
    He has until April 15, 2022 to qualify for a 2021 tax year deposit. The money contribution does not have to be his, so others may help him fund the account.
    What we did: We funded (minor Roth, account activation) and still fund our daughters Roth; as she continues with her full time university studies and some part time employment. The Roth is linked to a credit union acct. for easy access; and also includes a taxable brokerage acct. for future use.
    The current Roth (Fido acct:) holdings are: FTEC (Fido tech. etf), FBCG (Fido blue chip growth etf) and FSMEX. Additionally, IRS Pub. 590-A should offer info about who may provide funding of a Roth.
    I personally remain U.S. centric for our investments, but ACWI is global large cap equity etf at about 60/40, U.S./Global of about 2,200 holdings, if one wants that exposure. There are many other choices in this area for a global spread, if desired.
    ACWI holdings
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Best Biotech Fund?
    The biotech space is very volatile though one which I have involvement. As noted above, IBB and FBIOX are good choices which contain several well known and familiar names and with good overall portfolios. There are funds with a more clinical stage focus, such as ETNHX. I've owned that for about 6 years with good results, though it's not for the squeamish. As Mark noted, FSMEX is an excellent choice in the healthcare space. I swapped VGHCX for FSMEX last year, and frankly, should have done it years ago. That one's a Great Owl, and deservedly so.
  • Best Biotech Fund?
    FBIOX, Fidelity's Select Biotechnology was a standout performer in the recent past but I have no idea where they stand today. Just wondering if you've also considered ETF's as a possibility. You might also look at some wide-mandated health care funds (e.g. PRHSX) to see if they may contain healthy slices of biotech holdings.
    The health care sector has been hit or lots of misses for me over the years and I've settled on just one that I care to hold longer term - FSMEX.
  • Social Security Claiming Strategies - Claim Early & Invest
    One can use Portfolio Visualizer (PV) to see how he arrived at the age 70 investment portfolio values. PV shows slightly lower values. That is possibly because when one asks PV for a 6% rate of return, it doesn't use 6%/12 (0.5 basis points) for the monthly return, but 0.487 basis points (compounds to 6% annually). Just a guess.
    Here's the PV setup for 6%. Mouse over the graph for the 8 year (age 62-age 70) result.
    On the withdrawal side (after age 70), the video makes two simplifying assumptions:
    • You will die at age 90. 5% withdrawal x 20 years = 100%. That leaves longevity risk.
    • The real rate of return of the portfolio is zero. This addresses @bee's point that the portfolio grows over time. The video's portfolio does grow in nominal returns at precisely the rate of inflation.
    bee does a nice job with PV in showing how one might have invested in the past. Kudos for incorporating a couple of bear stock markets in the mix. That said, there are two implicit, and IMHO fairly aggressive, assumptions made:
    • The funds selected (or any fund of one's choosing) will continue to outperform the market. I've added a 60/40 S&P 500/bond market mix (rebalanced annually). This didn't survive 15 years. PV link.
    • The markets going forward will produce real returns similar to those of the past 20 years. Schwab is projecting average real returns over the next decade of around 4.5% in the stock market and negative bond returns. And that's before considering higher inflation - the projection was from last May, before inflation took off.
    image
    Source page: https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/why-market-returns-may-be-lower-in-the-future
    With respect to sheltering the portfolio from taxes via a Roth IRA: this assumes that the part time worker is not already putting that money into an IRA (and maxing out), else contributing more to an IRA might not be an option. In any case, one could not contribute even half the age 62 benefits to SS. $1400 x 12 mo = $16,800. Including the $1K catch up amount, the max that one can contribute to an IRA is $7K.
    Looking at the Roth conversion option: let's assume one is in the 12% tax bracket, no state taxes. If one converted $140K and somehow managed to remain in the 12% bracket, then that would use up the $16.8K in SS, thus effectively adding that amount to the Roth IRA. In reality, that would move one into the 22% or 24% bracket; hardly a good strategy. Not to mention that this would make more of the SS benefits taxable. Further, in order to execute this plan for eight years, one would need to have $1.12M in a traditional IRA available for conversion.
    This has a better chance of being feasible if one is in a higher tax bracket (that would reduce the amount of the conversion necessary to incur $16.8K in taxes). However, given the correlation between income and longevity, the higher income person is also more subject to longevity risk and thus would likely benefit more from the lifetime income guaranteed by SS.
    image
    Regarding the annuity option: we don't know where the cost figure comes from, or what type of annuity it is. Though I agree with what I think is @JonGaltIII's assumption - life only, no inflation adjustments. One can buy joint and survivor annuities, but they cost more. I don't believe there are any inflation adjusted fixed immediate annuities left on the market, but there should still be some that provide for annual increases of a fixed amount (say, 2%). Of course those also cost more.
    If there is the possibility of a surviving spouse, that just makes SS look even better. With SS, if the spouse with the larger benefits dies first, the surviving spouse gets those benefits instead of one's own. Unless one expects both spouses to live past the break even point (~82 give or take), the optimal strategy is often for the lower benefit spouse to take SS early (62) and the higher benefit spouse to defer to age 70.
  • Social Security Claiming Strategies - Claim Early & Invest
    Why not file at 62 and invest 8 years of benefits.

    Comment:
    What the video misses is the fact that the dollar amount of a 5% withdrawal changes as the invested portfolio continues to be invested (during retirement). An investment needs to maintain its value over time. The best investments maintain their inflation adjusted value over time while also providing an income (withdrawal).
    I fiddled with this scenario...please critique.
    I assumed a 7% return investing after tax SS from age 62 to age 70, netting a portfolio balance close to $200K.
    Now, if I died tomorrow my estate is worth $200K more taking SS early verses if I waited until 70 to take SS. This gets rid of "short-evity" risk (dying early). Also, I continue to work part time between ages 62-70 and add all of my SS funded contributions into a Roth IRA, (Roth 401K), Spousal Roth or through Roth conversions along the 8 year investment window (age 62-70). Since my SS income is $15K less at age 70, I take Roth withdrawals which are tax free. This seems to make good tax sense.
    Using PV, I run three scenarios using different types of investments.
    VWINX=Conservative Allocation
    PRWCX = Moderte Allocation
    PRBLX = Managed All Equity Fund - Aggressive Allocation
    I start the simulation in 2001 to include two nasty downturns (Tech bubble and GFR) early on in the simulation.
    Portfolio value is $200K (what was saved from SS). Year one pay out @ age 70 is $15,200 (the difference between early and late SS filing). This withdrawal will increase 2% a year for inflation going forward (COLA).
    PRBLX & VWINX - Lost portfolio value throughout the 20 year time frame (70-90).
    VWINX - Was ready to bust at age 90.
    PRBLX - Was worth about half its orginal value $106K adjusted for inflation.
    PRWCX - Lost portfolio value briefly during the GFR, but recovered and gained value.
    PRWCX- Fared much better than the conservative allocation (VWINX) and the aggresive allocation (PRBLX).
    PRWCX - At age 90, this portfolio had a inflation adjusted value of $200K...pretty good.
    image
    My PV Link
  • Climate change funds
    I have been looking into these for my wife's accounts. And Tesla can be an issue depending on the underlying index. Given the recent runup These are fund whose returns aren't so heavily influenced by Tesla.
    Descriptions are from etf.com. For various categories of energy I'm looking at:
    PBD
    passively managed to invest in a wide array of global renewable energy companies, including those involved in conservation, improving energy efficiency and advancing renewable energy. The index may invest in large cap firms and those that derives at least 10% of its market value from clean energy activities, but has bias on pure-play, small- and midcap companies. Importantly, PBD’s portfolio companies are selected based on the index provider’s opinion of their “potential for capital appreciation.” In that sense, PBD is more akin to an actively managed strategy than other funds in the segment. The index is rebalanced and reconstituted quarterly. For diversification, the fund caps its largest holdings at 5% and is required to invest half its assets internationally.
    ICLN
    ICLN invests in global clean energy companies, which is defined as those involved in the biofuels, ethanol, geothermal, hydroelectric, solar, and wind industries. Aside from holding companies that produce energy through these means, ICLN also includes companies that develop technology and equipment used in the process. Selected by the index committee, the fund is weighted by market-cap and exposure score — subject to several constraints — and reconstituted semi-annually. Prior to April 19, 2021, the index followed a more narrow methodology.
    Both are down this year. But that's a feature for me. Ten year returns seem reasonable compared to traditional utilities. There isn't much overlap in their top ten holdings anyway. They weight sectors differently. Neither has much exposure to China. Another feature as far as I am concerned.
    Then there is GRID.
    GRID is concentrated fund targeting global equities determined to be in the smart grid and electrical energy infrastructure sector as determined by Clean Edge. The fund includes companies that are either Pure Play — more than 50% revenues or Diversified — less than 50% revenues are derived from the smart grid and electrical energy infrastructure sector. The sector may include business in electric grid, electric meters and devices, networks, energy storage and management, and enabling software. GRID also screens for minimum liquidity and market cap. To enhance exposure to the smart grid market, the index provider uses a tiered weighting scheme. Securities are initially market cap weighted. Then a collective weight of 80% for Pure Play and 20% for Diversified are allocated. The Index is reconstituted semi-annually and rebalanced quarter.
    GRID is on the MFOpremium Honor Roll. Lipper/Refinitiv lists it as global infrastructure.
    I am also looking at three water funds:
    CGW
    The fund starts with all eligible securities from the S&P Global BMI Index that are classified in either water equipment & materials or water utilities & infrastructure cluster. To identify industry relevance, each company from both clusters will be assigned an exposure score based on its business description and most recent reported revenue. The 25 largest companies with an exposure score of 1 from each cluster will be selected for inclusion. However, if fewer than 25 companies have an exposure score of 1, the fund will select the largest companies with a 0.5 exposure score until the portfolio contains a total of 25 constituents for each cluster. Stocks are weighted by market-cap within each bucket and are constrained, such that securities with an exposure score of 1 are capped at 10% and those with 0.5 exposure score are capped at 5%. Index rebalancing occurs semi-annually.
    PIO
    The fund's (ironically appropriate) liquidity-weighting scheme produces a concentrated portfolio that only loosely resembles our market-cap-weighted benchmark. PIO is dominated by large- to midcap firms that create products that conserve and purify water for homes, businesses, and industries. Also, only companies participating in the “Green Economy” as determined by SustainableBusiness.com LLC are eligible for inclusion. The index currently limits weighting in both the country and issuer level, to ensure diversification between constituents. Lastly, it is important to note that the fund uses a “full replication” method to track the underlying index. Rebalancing is done quarterly while reconstitution is done annually.
    FIW
    FIW holds 36 of the largest US-listed water companies, ranked by market cap and weighted equally within five tiers. Companies of any market capitalization that derive revenue from the potable and wastewater industry are selected. In addition, its tiered equal-weighting scheme boosts the weight of small- and micro-cap companies, hence, reducing concentration. FIW changed its name from First Trust ISE Water Index Fund to First Trust Water ETF on December 14, 2016, which had no impact to FIW's investment strategy. The index is rebalanced and reconstituted semi-annually.
    Still not too much overlap for me.
    I check out holdings and weights using this link to the old M* data:format
    http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=fsmex&region=usa&culture=en-US
    Just replace the FSMEX with the code you want to look up.
  • Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin
    @bee
    Agree. One should/may choose over many years to continue to adjust an equity portfolio, as industries and offerings change; to match what one and others "use/want/need".
    These methods are part of our continued/current exposure to healthcare as with FSMEX and other broad healthcare; as well as technology areas.
    Excuse the serious drift of this thread.............
    Catch