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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Best Biotech Fund?
    FBIOX, Fidelity's Select Biotechnology was a standout performer in the recent past but I have no idea where they stand today. Just wondering if you've also considered ETF's as a possibility. You might also look at some wide-mandated health care funds (e.g. PRHSX) to see if they may contain healthy slices of biotech holdings.
    The health care sector has been hit or lots of misses for me over the years and I've settled on just one that I care to hold longer term - FSMEX.
  • Social Security Claiming Strategies - Claim Early & Invest
    One can use Portfolio Visualizer (PV) to see how he arrived at the age 70 investment portfolio values. PV shows slightly lower values. That is possibly because when one asks PV for a 6% rate of return, it doesn't use 6%/12 (0.5 basis points) for the monthly return, but 0.487 basis points (compounds to 6% annually). Just a guess.
    Here's the PV setup for 6%. Mouse over the graph for the 8 year (age 62-age 70) result.
    On the withdrawal side (after age 70), the video makes two simplifying assumptions:
    • You will die at age 90. 5% withdrawal x 20 years = 100%. That leaves longevity risk.
    • The real rate of return of the portfolio is zero. This addresses @bee's point that the portfolio grows over time. The video's portfolio does grow in nominal returns at precisely the rate of inflation.
    bee does a nice job with PV in showing how one might have invested in the past. Kudos for incorporating a couple of bear stock markets in the mix. That said, there are two implicit, and IMHO fairly aggressive, assumptions made:
    • The funds selected (or any fund of one's choosing) will continue to outperform the market. I've added a 60/40 S&P 500/bond market mix (rebalanced annually). This didn't survive 15 years. PV link.
    • The markets going forward will produce real returns similar to those of the past 20 years. Schwab is projecting average real returns over the next decade of around 4.5% in the stock market and negative bond returns. And that's before considering higher inflation - the projection was from last May, before inflation took off.
    Source page:
    With respect to sheltering the portfolio from taxes via a Roth IRA: this assumes that the part time worker is not already putting that money into an IRA (and maxing out), else contributing more to an IRA might not be an option. In any case, one could not contribute even half the age 62 benefits to SS. $1400 x 12 mo = $16,800. Including the $1K catch up amount, the max that one can contribute to an IRA is $7K.
    Looking at the Roth conversion option: let's assume one is in the 12% tax bracket, no state taxes. If one converted $140K and somehow managed to remain in the 12% bracket, then that would use up the $16.8K in SS, thus effectively adding that amount to the Roth IRA. In reality, that would move one into the 22% or 24% bracket; hardly a good strategy. Not to mention that this would make more of the SS benefits taxable. Further, in order to execute this plan for eight years, one would need to have $1.12M in a traditional IRA available for conversion.
    This has a better chance of being feasible if one is in a higher tax bracket (that would reduce the amount of the conversion necessary to incur $16.8K in taxes). However, given the correlation between income and longevity, the higher income person is also more subject to longevity risk and thus would likely benefit more from the lifetime income guaranteed by SS.
    Regarding the annuity option: we don't know where the cost figure comes from, or what type of annuity it is. Though I agree with what I think is @JonGaltIII's assumption - life only, no inflation adjustments. One can buy joint and survivor annuities, but they cost more. I don't believe there are any inflation adjusted fixed immediate annuities left on the market, but there should still be some that provide for annual increases of a fixed amount (say, 2%). Of course those also cost more.
    If there is the possibility of a surviving spouse, that just makes SS look even better. With SS, if the spouse with the larger benefits dies first, the surviving spouse gets those benefits instead of one's own. Unless one expects both spouses to live past the break even point (~82 give or take), the optimal strategy is often for the lower benefit spouse to take SS early (62) and the higher benefit spouse to defer to age 70.
  • Social Security Claiming Strategies - Claim Early & Invest
    Why not file at 62 and invest 8 years of benefits.

    What the video misses is the fact that the dollar amount of a 5% withdrawal changes as the invested portfolio continues to be invested (during retirement). An investment needs to maintain its value over time. The best investments maintain their inflation adjusted value over time while also providing an income (withdrawal).
    I fiddled with this scenario...please critique.
    I assumed a 7% return investing after tax SS from age 62 to age 70, netting a portfolio balance close to $200K.
    Now, if I died tomorrow my estate is worth $200K more taking SS early verses if I waited until 70 to take SS. This gets rid of "short-evity" risk (dying early). Also, I continue to work part time between ages 62-70 and add all of my SS funded contributions into a Roth IRA, (Roth 401K), Spousal Roth or through Roth conversions along the 8 year investment window (age 62-70). Since my SS income is $15K less at age 70, I take Roth withdrawals which are tax free. This seems to make good tax sense.
    Using PV, I run three scenarios using different types of investments.
    VWINX=Conservative Allocation
    PRWCX = Moderte Allocation
    PRBLX = Managed All Equity Fund - Aggressive Allocation
    I start the simulation in 2001 to include two nasty downturns (Tech bubble and GFR) early on in the simulation.
    Portfolio value is $200K (what was saved from SS). Year one pay out @ age 70 is $15,200 (the difference between early and late SS filing). This withdrawal will increase 2% a year for inflation going forward (COLA).
    PRBLX & VWINX - Lost portfolio value throughout the 20 year time frame (70-90).
    VWINX - Was ready to bust at age 90.
    PRBLX - Was worth about half its orginal value $106K adjusted for inflation.
    PRWCX - Lost portfolio value briefly during the GFR, but recovered and gained value.
    PRWCX- Fared much better than the conservative allocation (VWINX) and the aggresive allocation (PRBLX).
    PRWCX - At age 90, this portfolio had a inflation adjusted value of $200K...pretty good.
    My PV Link
  • Climate change funds
    I have been looking into these for my wife's accounts. And Tesla can be an issue depending on the underlying index. Given the recent runup These are fund whose returns aren't so heavily influenced by Tesla.
    Descriptions are from For various categories of energy I'm looking at:
    passively managed to invest in a wide array of global renewable energy companies, including those involved in conservation, improving energy efficiency and advancing renewable energy. The index may invest in large cap firms and those that derives at least 10% of its market value from clean energy activities, but has bias on pure-play, small- and midcap companies. Importantly, PBD’s portfolio companies are selected based on the index provider’s opinion of their “potential for capital appreciation.” In that sense, PBD is more akin to an actively managed strategy than other funds in the segment. The index is rebalanced and reconstituted quarterly. For diversification, the fund caps its largest holdings at 5% and is required to invest half its assets internationally.
    ICLN invests in global clean energy companies, which is defined as those involved in the biofuels, ethanol, geothermal, hydroelectric, solar, and wind industries. Aside from holding companies that produce energy through these means, ICLN also includes companies that develop technology and equipment used in the process. Selected by the index committee, the fund is weighted by market-cap and exposure score — subject to several constraints — and reconstituted semi-annually. Prior to April 19, 2021, the index followed a more narrow methodology.
    Both are down this year. But that's a feature for me. Ten year returns seem reasonable compared to traditional utilities. There isn't much overlap in their top ten holdings anyway. They weight sectors differently. Neither has much exposure to China. Another feature as far as I am concerned.
    Then there is GRID.
    GRID is concentrated fund targeting global equities determined to be in the smart grid and electrical energy infrastructure sector as determined by Clean Edge. The fund includes companies that are either Pure Play — more than 50% revenues or Diversified — less than 50% revenues are derived from the smart grid and electrical energy infrastructure sector. The sector may include business in electric grid, electric meters and devices, networks, energy storage and management, and enabling software. GRID also screens for minimum liquidity and market cap. To enhance exposure to the smart grid market, the index provider uses a tiered weighting scheme. Securities are initially market cap weighted. Then a collective weight of 80% for Pure Play and 20% for Diversified are allocated. The Index is reconstituted semi-annually and rebalanced quarter.
    GRID is on the MFOpremium Honor Roll. Lipper/Refinitiv lists it as global infrastructure.
    I am also looking at three water funds:
    The fund starts with all eligible securities from the S&P Global BMI Index that are classified in either water equipment & materials or water utilities & infrastructure cluster. To identify industry relevance, each company from both clusters will be assigned an exposure score based on its business description and most recent reported revenue. The 25 largest companies with an exposure score of 1 from each cluster will be selected for inclusion. However, if fewer than 25 companies have an exposure score of 1, the fund will select the largest companies with a 0.5 exposure score until the portfolio contains a total of 25 constituents for each cluster. Stocks are weighted by market-cap within each bucket and are constrained, such that securities with an exposure score of 1 are capped at 10% and those with 0.5 exposure score are capped at 5%. Index rebalancing occurs semi-annually.
    The fund's (ironically appropriate) liquidity-weighting scheme produces a concentrated portfolio that only loosely resembles our market-cap-weighted benchmark. PIO is dominated by large- to midcap firms that create products that conserve and purify water for homes, businesses, and industries. Also, only companies participating in the “Green Economy” as determined by LLC are eligible for inclusion. The index currently limits weighting in both the country and issuer level, to ensure diversification between constituents. Lastly, it is important to note that the fund uses a “full replication” method to track the underlying index. Rebalancing is done quarterly while reconstitution is done annually.
    FIW holds 36 of the largest US-listed water companies, ranked by market cap and weighted equally within five tiers. Companies of any market capitalization that derive revenue from the potable and wastewater industry are selected. In addition, its tiered equal-weighting scheme boosts the weight of small- and micro-cap companies, hence, reducing concentration. FIW changed its name from First Trust ISE Water Index Fund to First Trust Water ETF on December 14, 2016, which had no impact to FIW's investment strategy. The index is rebalanced and reconstituted semi-annually.
    Still not too much overlap for me.
    I check out holdings and weights using this link to the old M* data:format
    Just replace the FSMEX with the code you want to look up.
  • Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin
    Agree. One should/may choose over many years to continue to adjust an equity portfolio, as industries and offerings change; to match what one and others "use/want/need".
    These methods are part of our continued/current exposure to healthcare as with FSMEX and other broad healthcare; as well as technology areas.
    Excuse the serious drift of this thread.............
  • When to sell ?
    I'll place this link again. Global etf's performance, some broad, some narrow sector. These update through the U.S. trading day. The "Opinion" column is a technical indicator.
    Selling or buying (when and why) is a very personal choice with many variables for all of us.
    If a brief equity market melt is upon the doorstep, we all will have to decide what to do, perhaps meaning nothing.
    My convictions for investment areas will have to remain for a long term recovery, if that becomes reality, if the investments become somewhat disassembled to the upside, during a melt.
    I remain with a conviction to an etf as QQQ (growth), BOTZ (robotics, AI), FHLC (broad healthcare), ARKG (genomics, special meds and related areas), FTEC (technology) and FSMEX (medical devices and related healthcare/products). FBCG etf (Fido blue chip growth, active managed) remains a potential when cash is available. Overlaps in growth equity will have to be reviewed prior to any adds in this area.
    Bonds? Investment grade bonds will remain to have a need to fill portions within pension funds, life insurance companies, holdings from other governments, sovereign wealth funds and "other". They are not going to become dust and blow away, down the road.
    Sell, probably not. Regardless of the current political and investment moods, there remains a lot of money looking for a home, however long or short term that may be. One may hope the money travels to your investment sector, eh?
    My non-qualified 2 cents worth.
    Take care of you and yours,
  • What's on your FUND (or ETF) wishlist?
    JD With an investment minimum of zero, you can start dollar-cost averaging into FSMEX tomorrow. In addition, since Fido has closed the fund once already, you may want to invest $100, or $1 to secure access to the fund.
    Why not just do QQQ?
  • What's on your FUND (or ETF) wishlist?
    @carew, Thanks, I am aware. I had sold FSMEX recently, and was hoping to get back in a bit lower. But like your idea of a $1 placeholder in case it closes.
    Been having fun with buying fractional shares now at FIDO as well (i.e. AMZN, SPY). Can nibble all you want just to keep small positions on your trading screen.
    Just noticed that RLSFX is only $100 min at ETrade. That goes on the watch list again. WBALX is my current small add each trading day (also $100 min initial at ETr).
    This market is no fun right now. Need a big dip, not just a few negative days. What's it gonna take?
  • What's on your FUND (or ETF) wishlist?
    JD With an investment minimum of zero, you can start dollar-cost averaging into FSMEX tomorrow. In addition, since Fido has closed the fund once already, you may want to invest $100, or $1 to secure access to the fund.
  • What's on your FUND (or ETF) wishlist?
    I've starting buying individual stocks in what I view as "high" equity prices. But if the market drops, I think I'd get back into FSMEX. Also, initiated SPY position that I'd like to build up IF stocks drop off. Looking more at ETFs than MFs in my taxable.
    What is on your BUY list?
  • How 10 of the world’s smartest investors can help you build your perfect portfolio
    Academic does not per se equal investment prowess.
    But I’ll bite……maybe
    25% SCHD (Dividend aristocrats)
    25% QQQ (tech/growth…same stocks tend to dominate SPY also, especially recently)
    15% VNQ/FREL (Real Estate)
    10% QQQJ (next big tech giants)
    15% FSMEX (medical tech/devices)
    10% BIV for cash/ballast (and better returns than Treasury’s….rebalance when down)
    More complicated than the 90/10, and holes can be shot in the above from diff sides. But it’s my stab at it!
  • Time to sell or buy ?
    I’ve been adding to FSMEX
  • screening large numbers of funds
    I use the Fidelity screener by Morningstar category, and sort by standard deviation and Sharpe ratio. I try to find funds that perform well in both categories, which of course is difficult. I'm using more and more Fidelity funds, which I can sell without short-term redemption fees, or etfs. The only stock funds(other than my Vanguard account) I'm holding onto long-term are PRWCX CTFAX FSMEX MERFX ARBOX ADANX VARAX and FDGRX.
  • Revisiting Defensive Funds
    I like to look at upside and downside cature ratios of mutual funds to see how defensive a fund is. The Morningstar site provides this data (look in the "risk" tab). When I use Portfolio Visulaizer's data it appears inconsistent with M* (FWIW). You may to constrain PV to the last ten years of data to match M*'s data. PV data can go back to 1985 if the fund is that old.
    One of the best funds for this type of risk/reward is PRMTX. Here's its risk profile (Upside=114 / Downside=65):
    Some others I hold:
    FSMEX (100/58)...100% of the upside with 58% of the downside
    PRWCX (117/88)
    PRNHX (108/69)
    PRHSX (98/71)
    PRGSX (122/86)
    A fund like CTFAX has a (78 upside cature/13 downside capture) so this fund captures 78% of the upside (reward) while only taking 13% of the downside risk. Pretty good risk/reward.
    SVARX works hard (ER over 3%) to produce an upside of 128 and a downside of (-53). Help me understand the negative downside capture number.
    Some other notables in this thread:
    TGHNX (123/72)
    Explanation of Upside and Downside Capture:
  • Recommendations for new fund house?
    @hank - the only Fidelity funds I own I own through my brokerage accounts, FSMEX in a taxable account and FTEC in my Roth account.
    As far as i know any fund that Fidelity carries can be transferred in kind to a similar brokerage account. If you own a TRP fund in a traditional IRA and Fidelity carries that fund then you can transfer in your shares to a traditional IRA brokerage account. I'm not positive but I don't believe that Fidelity has access to all of the TRP funds. For example, I believe that you are a good sized holder in PRWCX so it pays to check before transferring. I've owned 4-5 different TRP funds which I had no trouble transferring merely for bookkeeping ease. If you do the transfer in cash then of course you can buy whatever you want at Fidelity.
  • Buying this week's market dip?
    Initiated positions in ONEQ and V today, buying fractional shares at FIDO. Slicing and dicing with each incremental drop. Along with FSMEX cost averaging, can start to build the volatile/riskier side of my portfolio.
    Need more days like this. Many more.
  • Buying this week's market dip?
    Have to ignore the gyrations and follow the annual DCA plan... but I confess... @JD_co idea of adding to FSMEX doesn’t sound like a bad idea. Not selling. Hopping off the rollercoaster in the middle or any part of the ride is never a great strategy. Wish I was smart enough to spot a “bottom” but I’m not.
  • Buying this week's market dip?
    If so, what are you buying (and selling)?
    I will be buying FSMEX.
  • Health Sector Funds: FSPHX vs FSMEX and others
    Finally traded FSPHX for FSMEX - long term conviction move. @TheShadow I checked back on PDFDX and sure enough it's up 22.81 for the year vs. FSMEX 12.25. It has performed very well since you mentioned it.
  • 2020-21 Capital Gains estimates
    FSRPX and FSMEX paid capital gains 4/9/21. I did finally see it posted on Fidelity's website. I'll check out M* thanks @DaveSch...good stuff...that worked: