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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Fixed 4% Withdrawal Rate In Retirement Unrealistic In Real World, Researchers Say
    That paper is 26 pages - I'm not going to read it.
    JP Morgan's job is to sell fear and get people to give them their money for JPM to invest for them.
    Retirement needs vary but, if you take a healthy individual with $1M in assets and renting an apartment the 4% rule should work even excluding inflation.
    In the real world, the USA, the person worked for that $ so they have SS and possibly a pension (but let's leave that out).
    So, they retire at 60 with $1m and withdraw 4% for 6 years then start collecting SS.
    In addition, their taxes should be at the low end when you include the standard deduction and 2 individual deductions - 1 for being over 65 (am I correct?)
    I'm not going to do the math but you get the idea - when the person is 65 they have income of the 4%, $40 + SS est 25K for an area of 60 to 65K of income.
    Also, the idea that spending increases as we age should be examined. A person's spending habits change over time. While young they might spend more $ on travel and such but over time that line item cost decreases and the travel $ gets re-allocated to other areas that do increase with inflation. So, the expenses stay relatively constant.
  • Roth IRA for a college student
    VTWSX or VT the ETF - ER .35 or .18 makes up for hot managers over 40 years. Ask her to read one of William Bernstein's books on investing and discuss it with you.
    She can add some bond funds 10 or 15 years from retirement. She can add a mid or small cap global or global dividend fund lwhen she has the money as she gains experience, but this is the simplest, cheapest way to start, and I wish I had done so several years ago for my children (as I now am).
  • Best brokerage for MF investing
    Not to step on Mulder420's toes but Fidelity is among the worst. Been there done that. Their short term trading fees were exorbitant and at least many years ago after so many short term trades the fees were increased even more. From my experience it is Scottrade all the way. And what they consider short term is three months.
    EDIT: Had I adhered to the advice of the John Bogles of the world I would be looking at a very bleak retirement.
  • Grandeur Peak Global Opportunities & International Opportunities Funds purchase changes
    "Retirement plan/account"
    Does that mean individual plans like IRAs, or institutional accounts sold through 401(k)s and the like?
  • An Exciting Portfolio Backtesting Website
    Hi Guys,
    The Portfolio Visualizer website truly offers opportunity. Opportunity to learn.
    There are so many potential and practical uses for this fine website that it is hard to characterize its full utility and scope in a few words. So I’ll settle for a lesser goal and suggest just a few specific applications.
    Any such usage must always be accompanied with the standard cautionary warning that in a dynamic, nonlinear system, specific outcomes are never totally predictable. The Chaos whiz-kids could endlessly pontificate on this matter. But Chaos is not randomness. It borders on the threshold of randomness and it develops in a semi-controlled, non-arbitrary manner.
    A famous saying, often but not always attributed to Mark Twain, captures the spirit of the uncertain future: “History does not repeat itself, but it Rhymes”.
    Given the unknowable future, an investor must exercise judgment in recognizing that rhyming proclivity and a certain market rhythm. A knowledge of market history is necessary to achieve this level of understanding.
    For the global climate change debate, it’s critical to know that the sun-spot activity level has a periodicity of about 22 years. For investors, it is important to know that 22 economic recoveries have occurred since 1904 with an average and median life span of 3.8 and 3.1 years, respectively. This type of knowledge allows an investor to develop a feel for market risk.
    In general, the historical returns for the top tier of investment classes and for the next lower order investment categories serve as a guideline for potential, but never guaranteed, future market rewards. The category data provide guidelines for a logical, long-term expectation level from these various groupings, which is especially useful when assembling a portfolio asset allocation plan. Surely if you seek a 6 % to 8% portfolio annual return, a 100% bond portfolio simply will not suffice.
    Both baseball and investing are awash with data. Properly interpreting this data, and that also means respecting its limitations, will make anyone a better informed investor when making investment decisions.
    In baseball, the Moneyball that Billy Beane deployed was initially rejected by the baseball establishment. It is now the operational rule for all baseball. In the financial world, very little statistical awareness was applied in the mid-1950s. Today, the reverse is true, except for a few old diehards. You get to choose your own pathway.
    To develop a feel for the sensitivity of an equity/bond return/risk tradeoff, just play a few what-if games with the referenced asset class allocation tool. Vary the percentages and see how sensitive the overall returns and the standard deviations are to the mix. There are never any free lunches. Vary the study timeframe to isolate sensitivity to that parameter. If you don’t like the historical database, invent your own preferences and use them as input. Experiment liberally!
    These types of parametric explorations will shorten your learning period. You will develop a sense of what factors are influential and what are noise. The what-if game scenarios will likely make you a better investor whatever your goals.
    You can use the Monte Carlo simulator that is also available on the website to project retirement portfolio survival rates for a variety of market circumstances. These type of studies can be used as positive feedback loops to adjust savings plans and investment risk requirements if you are in your accumulation phase (before retirement).
    You can challenge the robustness of your candidate portfolios by checking survival rates for a normal Bell curve distribution and next stress testing it against a Fat Tail model. A version of a Fat Tail model is incorporated within the referenced Monte Carlo code as a user option.
    I find it somewhat amusing that some members of the MFO family elect to discourage statistical applications, yet in the same posting endorse stress testing. Stress test against what, if not against some target specification gleaned from history. Statistical history serves to guide any meaningful stress test.
    I encourage you to fully exploit the capabilities of this attractive website with its comprehensive set of investment tools. These types of analysis will help you formulate a portfolio that satisfies your return requirements while also serving to measure its risk profile. Of course, there can never be an absolute guarantee given the uncertainty of future exogenous events.
    I wish you more informed and more confident investment decision making. You need confidence to stay the course when the potholes appear. And they will most certainly appear.
    Best wishes to all and thank you for your participation.
  • Grandeur Peak Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund to close to new investors
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000091580214000008/grandeurpeakemergingmarketso.htm
    497 1 grandeurpeakemergingmarketso.htm Grandeur Peak Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    SUPPLEMENT DATED FEBRUARY 19, 2014 TO THE FUND’S PROSPECTUS DATED MAY 1, 2013, AS SUPPLEMENTED FROM TIME TO TIME
    This Supplement updates certain information contained in the Prospectus for the Fund dated May 1, 2013, as supplemented from time to time. You should retain this Supplement and the Prospectus for future reference. Additional copies of the Prospectus may be obtained free of charge by visiting our web site at www.grandeurpeakglobal.com or calling us at 1.855.377.PEAK (7325).
    Effective as of the close of business on March 5, 2014, the Fund will close to new investors, except as described below:
    ·A financial advisor whose clients have established accounts in a Fund as of March 5, 2014 may continue to open new accounts in that Fund for any of its existing or new clients.
    ·Existing or new participants in a qualified retirement plan, such as a 401(k) plan, profit sharing plan, 403(b) plan or 457 plan, which has an existing position in a Fund as of March 5, 2014, may continue to open new accounts in that Fund. In addition, if such qualified retirement plans have a related retirement plan formed in the future, this plan may also open new accounts in the Fund.
    This change will affect new investors seeking to purchase shares of the Fund either directly or through third party intermediaries. Existing shareholders of the Fund may continue to purchase additional shares of the Fund.
    As described in the Prospectus, the Fund’s investment adviser, Grandeur Peak Global Advisors, LLC, retains the right to make exceptions to any action taken to close the Fund or limit inflows into the Fund.
  • Grandeur Peak Global Opportunities & International Opportunities Funds purchase changes
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000091580214000009/grandeurpeakgoandiohardclose.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
    Grandeur Peak Global Opportunities Fund
    Grandeur Peak International Opportunities Fund (the “Funds”)
    SUPPLEMENT DATED FEBRUARY 19, 2014 TO THE PROSPECTUS
    DATED AUGUST 31, 2013
    This Supplement updates certain information contained in the Prospectus for the Funds dated August 31, 2013. You should retain this Supplement and the Prospectus for future reference. Additional copies of the Prospectus may be obtained free of charge by visiting our web site at www.grandeurpeakglobal.com or calling us at 1.855.377.PEAK (7325).
    Effective as of the close of business on March 5, 2014, the Funds will close to all purchases, except as described below. Once the Funds are closed the Funds will no longer accept purchases from new or existing clients, unless the purchase is part of:
    ·a retirement plan/account which held the Fund prior to this closure;
    ·an automatic investment plan which was established in the Fund prior to this closure; or
    ·an automatic reinvestment of a distribution made by the Fund.
    These exceptions will be implemented wherever possible, but they may not be possible on all intermediary platforms.
    As described in the Prospectus, the Funds’ investment adviser, Grandeur Peak Global Advisors, LLC, retains the right to make exceptions to any action taken to close a Fund or limit inflows into a Fund.
  • Open Thread: What Are You Buying/Selling/Pondering
    Reply to @bee:
    Wasn't aware of it, but not surprised. China has a huge demand for gold as does India. Until this past decade, it was illegal for Chinese to own gold. This pent up demand coupled with their new found entrepreneurial class seeking bling has resulted in massive demand. India's is long running as a substitute for social security/retirement for women.
    take care,
    rono
  • Advisors vs DIYers
    Hi Mike. I'll throw in my 2 cents. Advice from this web site or any other would be interesting, informative and entertaining, but nothing more than that. Lots of opinions but no-way a financial plan. It would be interesting though to see how your original advisor set up your conservative-moderate portfolio and what the Mutual Fund Store people suggested.
    I'm guessing like everyone here, you want a financial plan in place, one you can sleep with and have trust in. You decided 4-6% returns is sufficient going forward. Not sure how you decided that, but I'll assume you are close to or in retirement. 4-6% wouldn't be an accumulation/growth portfolio for a younger investor unless they already had assets needed.
    The advice you are getting here to work with a fee only, fiduciary advisor is what I agree with. You already have advice from one. Get a second opinion to be more self assured. It has to be a one on one discussion as I believe MJG suggested.
    I've been coming to this site, first Fund Alarm and now MFO for years and like I mentioned above, it is informative and some times very entertaining - lots of personalities. David's commentaries are better than any magazine or news letter you can buy. You can do things yourself, but sometimes it's nice to have the reassurance of a trusted professional. I know that is true for me. I lost my job a few months back and the first thing I did was seek advise.
    Good luck to you Mike!
  • The Right Way To Rebalance Your Portfolio
    Thanks for the article,
    I wonder if making quarterly withdrawals verse other dispursment time frame is also more advantageous.
    As we age, our portfolio is no longer just an issue of appreciation, but combining growth with income (dispursments).
    Here's one stab (article) at this additional consideration:
    The ultimate retirement withdrawal strategy
  • The Crushingly Expensive Mistake Killing Your Retirement
    The same old indexing argument.
    How many logical fallacies can you spot in the arguments of this type?
    1. Most funds don't beat the index after all fees.
    2. So, your fund won't beat the index.
    3. Since your fund won't beat the index, it will trail the index by the amount of the fee each year.
    4. This exact fee amount that it will lose year over year will compound and kill your retirement.
    It is like the global warming deniers trying to argue with math or science.
  • The Crushingly Expensive Mistake Killing Your Retirement
    Reply to @hank: I think it's reasonable. I believe Ted calls these two approaches his capital preservation pool and capital appreciation pool. If one were to hold 80% in a moderate allocation fund such as VWELX (low cost, well managed) long term and than opportunisticly invest the remaining 20% in special situations (your best ideas) I believe it coud be meaningful to your retirement bottom line.
  • Covered Call Strategies - Discussions and Performance
    In November of 2013, the East Bay Municipal Utility District ("EBMUD") considered adding "covered call" strategies to its retirement fund.
    They considered proposals from 15 advisors, and after scoring those responses, focused on the performance and process used by 4: Gateway, Glenmede, Parametric/Eaton Vance, and Van Hulzen (Iron Horse).
    For those considering a similar strategy, the almost 300 page pdf may be of interest. Presentations from the different advisors occur about halfway through the document, but these are preceded by general discussion and commentary from the Utility District's Retirement Board.
    (1) Archive: EBMUD Retirement Board Meetings: See Nov 19 2013
    (2) Nov 2013 East Bay Municipal Utility District Quarterly Report (Covered Call Strategies) ~ 300 pages
    PS: As discussed at end of Jan 16 2014 report, EBMUD selected Parametric/Eaton Vance and Van Hulzen. In the Jan 2014 report (see first link above), they also discussed the relative merits of Bank Loans and Short Term High Yield Bonds, as alternatives to a Core Fixed Income strategy.
  • American Century Hires TCW, Loomis For Subadvising
    That is a good guess, and I'll look into it further, but so far I have my doubts.
    Several years ago, Am Cent tried going mostly load - adding A,B,C shares, closing investor class shares of many funds. They used to show all the classes on their website - I didn't notice until you pointed it out that they don't show info on these advisor share classes now.
    But I did (after your pointing it out) locate a page that shows all the share classes of their funds: https://www3.financialtrans.com/tf/FANWeb?tx=Disclaim&cz=c001204170802001302041319
    Still no luck. American Century also offers funds designed for annuities (which could easily show up in retirement plans). Here's their list of "Variable Portfolio" (VP) funds, still no luck: https://www.americancentury.com/funds/vp_fund_reports.jsp
    Most VA "funds" aren't even registered with the SEC, since they're regulated as insurance products, not securities. But these do seem to be registered and have tickers, e.g. VP Balanced Fund is AVBIX. See, e.g. this Morningstar search for the funds:
    http://quote.morningstar.com/TickerLookupResult.html?ticker=American+Century+VP&pageno=0&TLC=M
    Since MFwire says these changes were filed with the SEC, I did a search on American Century companies. 586 funds/share classes returned - no mortgage, no core plus, no PIMCO, no TCW. Here's that search result:
    http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/series?sc=companyseries&type=N-PX&company=American+Century
    Here's the SEC search for any fund containing "mortage backed" (with or without hyphen), still nothing related to American Century:
    http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/series?sc=companyseries&type=N-PX&company=Mortgage-backed
    Maybe there are other "funds" offered through employer plans. But there's nothing (as near as I can see) that the SEC knows about.
  • Succint Summations Of Week's Events: 2/14/14: Positive & Negative
    Re: the second citation:
    No matter what you may think after your latest experience at your local DMV, many intelligent people choose to work for the state and their fellow citizens at a somewhat lower salary in exchange for an anticipated better retirement income and relative job security. In the same vein, teachers often accept relatively low incomes with the expectation of decent retirement incomes.
    To undercut these people after they have made relatively irrevocable career decisions, seems unfair. Admittedly, we taxpayers did not mind that our elected representatives underfunded the retirement plans, but sometimes the piper must be paid, even if he is not leading your (grand)children out of town.
    Re: first citation: Propaganda wins. From a distance, it looks like VW could have benefitted from workers' councils (and none of my immediate family have ever been union members). Too bad the UAW and the auto companies didn't adopt that model in the 60's (when, IMO, the unions negotiated their members out of future jobs). We probably would have had more "middle class" workers, and fewer plants in Mexico.
    Biases: My sister, salutatorian of a 90 student class, teaches preschool in Indiana, and faces salary and pension cuts. My bro-in-law, scoring above 90%tile on the Law School Admission Test, worked for the state of Florida, but his pension remains intact.
  • Chuck Jaffe: Stock Are Far Less Risky Than You Think
    A cited study reported on MFO discussions sometime this year, but more than ten pages back (I gave up at that point) modeled a portfolio that was low risk at retirement to avoid the impact of significant drawdowns, increasing risk as one aged. It made sense to me, so long as one could live on the returns from the low risk portfolio during the early years of retirement. (That particular issue was not addressed.)
    Cman's comment applies if one has not reduced risk at retirement. However, if one has a low risk initial portfolio (with some risk-on funds or stocks to enjoy a good market, if it exists - admittedly missing the big boosts from a great initial market), one can increase risk over time.
  • Succint Summations Of Week's Events: 2/14/14: Positive & Negative
    VW's Tennessee workers reject union
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/02/14/vw-workers-vote-against-uaw/5500897/
    http://www.freep.com/article/20140214/BUSINESS0104/302140095/VW-workers-Tennessee-stun-UAW-reject-union-by-712-626-margin
    From Seeking Alpha
    Today - Saturday, February 15, 2014
    VLKAY
    In a defeat for organized labor, Volkswagen workers reject union
    In one of the most closely watched union votes in the U.S. in decades, workers at the Volkswagen (VLKAY, VLKAF) plant in Chattanooga, Tenn., voted against joining the United Auto Workers union.
    A win would have marked the first time the UAW had been able to organize a foreign-owned auto plant in the U.S., as well as a turnaround in sentiment in the traditionally anti-union South.
    The UAW’s loss likely will hurt plans to organize other auto plants in the South; two other German-owned plants, Mercedes-Benz (DDAIF) in Alabama and BMW (BAMXY, BAMXF) in South Carolina, as well as a Nissan (NSANY, NSANF) plant in Mississippi, have been among its top targets.
    The UAW enjoyed some unusual help - the cooperation of Volkswagen management and the aid of Germany's IG Metall union - yet it still lost; "If the union can't win [in Chattanooga], it can't win anywhere."
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/1572681-in-a-defeat-for-organized-labor-volkswagen-workers-reject-union
    Rhode Island Pension Overhaul Is Softened
    State Officials, Union Agree to Roll Back Retirement Age, Other Changes

    Efforts to rein in public-pension costs have drawn dozens of legal challenges, from Illinois to Louisiana to San Jose, Calif. The debate in Rhode Island has been watched closely because it was one of only a few states that cut benefits for both current employees and retirees, raising a thorny question about whether pension benefits are contractual promises that states can't break.
    Courts have been divided over the issue. Rhode Island officials saw the agreement as a way to avoid the chance that a court could toss out the entire law after costly litigation. Unions saw a chance to win back benefits.
    http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304703804579383423023651610#printMode