Reply to
@Guy:
Hi Guy,
Thank you for reading and replying to my post.
I honestly feel that I might be the least informed MFO member, who posts semi-regularly, to respond to your sensible question. Almost any frequent MFO contributor could construct a more meaningful and deeply researched active manager listing than I can generate.
Sometimes within the last year I concluded that the incremental reward/time commitment in identifying superior active mutual fund managers was not worth the effort in terms of my realized payoffs. This bottom-line conclusion is consistent with much academic research in this arena.
That’s not to say that my personal decision is in any way universal. Successful fund management does exist and careful research can isolate the winners from the losers. I believe that a few MFO participants are very proficient at this challenging task. It does demand time and constant monitoring. At this juncture in my
retirement I am not prepared to make that commitment.
In the 1990s, 100 % of my mutual fund portfolio was actively managed. Today, about half is still invested with active managers, but about half is with Index products. Within one year, my plan is to convert the mix to a 20/80 passive-heavy fund/ETF allocation. I still enjoy the excitement and the challenge of the game.
Both academic and industry studies demonstrate the steep hill that active fund management must climb. As the number of actively managed funds in a portfolio increases and as the time horizon expands, the likelihood of outdistancing an equivalent passive portfolio sharply decreases towards single digit odds.
Active fund managers find it difficult to overcome their cost drag and changing market conditions. Investing policy, manager style, and fund size inertia elements make it hard to dynamically adjust to a rapidly evolving marketplace.
The historical record demonstrates that consistent outperformance by actively managed funds is mostly nonexistent among the mutual fund population. The Standard and Poors’ SPIVA and persistency scorecard reports document this failure over an impressive timeframe. Updated versions of these reports will be shortly released covering 2013 mutual fund management performance.
If I were searching for superior actively managed funds I would look for low costs and low portfolio turnover rates as guiding criteria. I would search for positive Alpha performance results over an extended timeframe, the longer the better (at least 5 years). I would seek high Information Ratios since a fund’s volatility detracts from overall wealth accumulation. I equate positive Alpha and Information Ratio as two measures of managerial skill.
I would accept the proposition that a fund manager will not be successful each and every year; bad times and bad decisions happen so patience is a virtue. Bill Miller is an excellent illustration of an active fund manager who would test patience to a maximum.
Since you have persevered and have endured my numerous investing nuances, I am now prepared to divulge several of my favorite fund managers. I claim no prescience here, but I do currently own the following array of actively managed funds; in fact, I have owned them since the mid-1990s.
From Fidelity, I hold FCNTX and FLPSX. From Vanguard, I have sizable positions with VWINX and VWELX. And from Dodge and Cox, I have DODBX and DODGX.
I make no eureka assertions relative to the wisdom of these choices. They have served me well for over two decades. Most likely I will retain these products when I finally get my mix of actively managed funds down to my 20 % goal level. Note that some of these funds are team managed so superstars are not a necessary prerequisite.
I find these choices adequate for my purposes; they surely might not be appropriate for your goals, risk profile, or time horizon.
I hope that some MFO members, who are more diligent, more qualified, and far more current at exploring the active fund management cohort, respond to your question. I’m sure they will provide deployable specific recommendations and some useful selection guidelines.
Best Wishes.