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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Looking for advice
    Reply to @fidia: It's certainly difficult to try and market time - and I know that when things are going up, I find it difficult at times to be disciplined and wait for a pullback. The way that markets are today in terms of holding period and attention span makes it even more difficult to try and time.
    If there are dips and you want to buy, maybe start with the minimum investment and continue to dollar cost average if the pullback continues. Additionally, we can make suggestions, but I think it also comes down to your desired risk tolerance and your own situation. I think having equity exposure - but more conservative and/or income-oriented equity exposure - would be a positive. SGOVX, which I mentioned, is a more conservative foreign fund, while investor offered some good, more conservative US balanced options with GLRBX and VWINX. TIBIX would be more volatile, but offers a very nice yield.
    Consumer staples have run up a lot - I think to some degree because people are looking for equity exposure they believe is "safer" (and the yield), but if there's a considerable pullback in the staples ETF, I think that's actually not a bad idea for those in/near retirement. Boring, familiar names (the P & G's, the J & J's, the Wal-Marts, the Costcos) that offer products everyone needs and decent yield of about 2.75% for Vanguard's consumer staples ETF (VDC) - there are a ton of various consumer staples ETFs,that's just one example.
    Again, I think consumer staples have run up a lot and are probably currently overvalued, but if there's a pullback (and the pullback may come if people shift from these names to names that are less "defensive"), something to consider that would offer a degree of stability (while past performance is no guarantee of future results, likely an investment that you would not have to be overly concerned with/watch over), familiarity (lots of names everyone knows and products everyone's probably familiar with) and not a bad yield. It's not going to hit home runs, but it's also going to not likely tank on a bad year, either - best scenario, just consistent singles and doubles and a decent yield (and again, something that isn't going to be volatile, most likely.) Overall, a boring, consistent, fairly low-key idea that may particularly fit those nearer to retirement age.
    I think there are some instances where things aren't overvalued - I think some of the oil names and other natural resource plays actually seem rather reasonable and both energy and natural resources have not fared terribly well the last couple of years in many cases. However, given the volatility,not something I'd really recommend.
    I think what I have to really emphasize again is that, yeah, it's probably going to be best in the years ahead to have some more equity exposure, but that really keep in mind your own situation, risk tolerance, etc. What's best for you is what you feel comfortable with to the point where you can sleep well at night and not spend time being overly concerned about markets that may be volatile (they haven't been that volatile in the past few years with some exceptions here-and-there, at some point do people get too comfortable?)
    As for bonds and interest rates and whatnot, I remain concerned about how fixed income will fare over the next several years, but who knows how long that will take to really play out.
    Just my 2 cents.
  • Help me pick the top four Large Cap Funds?
    Dear Carefree: I like BBTEX and the biotech ETF BBH, Art above me has done a nice analysis of the funds, and my hope is that all these funds are not in the same retirement account.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Help me pick the top four Large Cap Funds?
    I would actually change your holdings all around:
    Keep SEQUX, BBTEX
    Add AUXFX
    Sell the others
    I would add AUXFX for it's downside protection ( YAFFX does very well in this regard..but i'm concerned with asset bloat ) & the manager has ALL his own retirement money invested in this fund. Own it myself
  • Inside Gundlach's Treasury Bet
    While everyone loves to hate treasuries the one thing that people should think about is why would investors dramatically sell off 10 Treasury bonds at 2.01% before they sold off 10 year JGBs at 0.64%?? Why does Japan get money at 1/3 the rate when it has twice the debt load, is not the world's reserve currency, has a population which is shrinking and are 10 years older needing to sell their holdings to fund retirement?
    The Wall Street Ranter
  • market at 5 yrs high - question for the board
    Reply to @Old_Joe: You should really calculate your entire portfolio for the same purpose (for example Retirement) as a single portfolio.
  • market at 5 yrs high - question for the board
    Reply to @Accipiter:
    32% is bonds, cash and other. Cash and other are really small.
    The percentages are the percent allocation in my total retirement portfolio (multiple accounts, includes spouse funds) and yes 100% includes cash.
    The percentages are calculated the same way. They are different as I said I sold other funds and bought into these funds so that increased the percentages since Art's poll. I was busy recently with this repositioning.
  • market at 5 yrs high - question for the board
    What I'm currently doing varies by account:
    401K:
    -new money is going into PIFZX. As I'm looking to retire within 2 years, this falls within "bucket 1" within that concept. The equity funds in the 401K get a 20% haircut when they hit a pre-defined amount, with the trimmings going to PIFZX.
    IRA Rollover:
    -equities get the same 20% haircut at pre-defined levels, but the trimmings here are now going to fixed income....which is now a difficult decision. Currently it's MAINX.
    -the divi's from the current fixed income funds are not automatically reinvested, but are collected and invested monthly. Currently these are going into SUBFX.
    Pre-tax:
    -I have a handful of individual equity divi-payors...these get automatically re-invested into the same equities
    -equity mutual funds get the same 20% haircut as I described previously into bucket #1 holdings....the trimmings now go into either a muni, or PAUDX (it seemed like a good idea at the time)
    So...this was a long winded answer to your question. In a 57/33/10 mix in retirement accounts, I'm really not doing too much differently simply because of where the market currently resides relative to a 5 year high. I am just filling my buckets....I currently have 3 years of bucket 1 funding.
    I am not smart enough to figure out if it will be up or down a year from now, so I figure a reasonably well distributed portfolio with some prudent re-allocation fits the bill for me.
  • Oppenheimer Developing Markets fund to close
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1015986/000072888913000405/developmkts497.htm
    supplement amends the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) of Oppenheimer Developing Markets Fund (the “Fund”) dated December 28, 2012.
    The following information is added to the sections titled “More About Your Account” beginning on page 11 of the Prospectus and “How to Buy Shares” beginning on page 56 of the SAI:
    Effective as of the close of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on April 12, 2013 (the "Closing Date"), the Fund will no longer accept purchase orders from new investors and existing Fund shareholders will no longer be able to purchase new shares or exchange shares of other funds into the Fund, subject to the following exceptions:
    · Existing shareholders can continue to purchase shares through dividend and capital gain reinvestments.
    · Existing shareholders in broker/dealer wrap-fee programs can continue to purchase shares and exchange into the Fund. Existing broker/dealer wrap-fee programs can add new participants. The Fund will not be available to new broker/dealer wrap-fee platforms.
    · Existing shareholders in the following types of retirement plans can continue to purchase shares and exchange into the Fund: defined contribution investment only (DCIO), 401(k) (including “Single K”), 403(b) custodial plans, pension and profit sharing plans, defined benefit plans (including “Single DB Plus”), SIMPLE IRAs and SEP IRAs. New participants in such plans that currently offer the Fund as an investment option can elect to purchase new shares of the Fund. However, the Fund will be closed to new retirement plans. New retirement plans that are authorized prior to the Closing Date will have until July 15, 2013 to fund the account.
    · Existing shareholders that have an investment allocation to the Fund through an OppenheimerFunds Portfolio Builder account prior to the Closing Date can continue to purchase shares and exchange into the Fund.
    · Existing firms in RIA/bank trust wrap-fee programs that hold shares of the Fund prior to the Closing Date can continue to purchase or exchange shares subject to a $100,000 minimum investment at the firm level. RIA/bank trust platforms cannot add new firms.
    · Existing shareholders in private bank platforms can continue to make purchases and exchange into the Fund. Private bank platforms can add new participants, but participants who seek to open new accounts are subject to a $100,000 initial minimum investment. The Fund will not be available to private banks not already invested in the Fund.
    · Existing 529 Plans that currently include the Fund within one or more of their investment options can continue to purchase shares and exchange into the Fund. The Fund will not be available to new plans or existing plans that do not currently invest in the Fund.
    · Funds-of-funds affiliated with the Fund’s investment adviser and non-affiliated funds-of-funds managed by other firms can invest in the Fund.
    · The Fund reserves the right, in its discretion, to accept purchases and exchanges from institutional investors which may include, among others, corporations, endowments, foundations and insurance companies.
    Existing shareholders as of the Closing Date who later sell all of their shares of the Fund will not be permitted to establish new accounts or reinvest in the Fund.
    Present or former officers, directors, trustees and employees (and their eligible family members) of the Fund, the Fund’s investment adviser and its affiliates, its parent company and the subsidiaries of its parent company will not be permitted to purchase additional shares of the Fund after the Closing Date unless such purchase is through an exception listed above.
    March 6, 2013 PS0785.032
  • market at 5 yrs high - question for the board
    Just curious - - Are you folks:
    a. still buying [401k stocks funds / other private account funds/stocks/bonds etf, etc...] still getting into the game even though it's all time high
    b. not buying/selling, not putting any money in, not doing anything/ stash cash under the mattress
    c. thinking/watching/waiting for a pull back to start buying
    d. or 'bailin out'/selling before the 'sh*t hit the fan' [like skeeter did recently]
    I am still 80%stocks/20%bonds in tsp but thinking maybe changing to less risk portfolio ? 65%/35%. By the way, I wish I was near retirement, probably would bail right now and put it in a conservative portfolio
  • New Thread: Open Discussion (What are you buying, selling, considering?)
    Still too overweight in PONDX but it has been a super retirement anchor. GASFX is my largest fund holding but trying to ramp up in RYOIX which is my most recent buy. Smallish in WSBEX and even smaller in WAMFX. I hold two stocks, one mentioned a few weeks ago is SNTS, the other being LGND.
  • How many unique mutual funds are there?
    Reply to @David_Snowball: Yes indeed.
    For the record, here are all 767 families...in two posts (1-M, N-Z)
    13D Management
    1492 Capital Management, LLC
    361 Funds
    AAM
    Aberdeen
    Absolute Strategies
    AC ONE
    Academy
    Acadian Funds
    Adams Harkness Funds
    Adirondack Funds
    Advance Capital I
    Advantus
    AdvisorOne Funds
    Advisors' Inner Circle (Chartwell)
    ADVISORS SERIES TRUST(Davidson)
    AdvisorShares
    Advisory Research
    Aegis
    AIS Capital Management LLC
    Akre
    Al Frank
    Alger
    AllianceBernstein
    Allianz Funds
    Allianz Global Investors
    Allied Asset
    Alpha Capital Funds
    AlphaClone
    AlphaMark
    AlphaOne Investment Services, LLC
    Alpine
    ALPS
    Altegris
    AmericaFirst Funds
    American Beacon
    American Century Investments
    American Funds
    American Growth
    American Independence
    American Money Management
    American Pension Investors
    American Trust
    Ameristock
    AMF
    AMIDEX
    Ancora
    Angel Oak Capital Advisors, LLC
    Apex Capital Management
    Appleseed Fund
    Appleton
    AQR Funds
    Aquila
    Arbitrage Fund
    Archer
    Arden Asset Management LLC
    Ariel Investments, LLC
    Aristotle
    Armstrong Associates
    Arrow
    ArrowShares
    Artio Global
    Artisan
    Ascendant
    Ascentia Capital Partners
    Ashmore
    Aston
    Astor
    ATAC Fund
    Auer
    Auxier Funds
    Ave Maria Mutual Funds
    Avenue Capital Group
    Aviemore Funds
    Azzad Fund
    Baird
    Bandon Capital Management, LLC
    Bank of America Corp
    Barclays Funds
    Baron Capital Group
    Barrett
    BBH
    Bearly Bullish Fund
    Beck, Mack & Oliver
    Becker
    Beech Hill
    BeeHive
    Bennett Group Master Funds
    Berkshire
    Bernzott Capital Advisors
    Berwyn
    Biondo Investment Advisor
    Birmiwal
    Bishop Street
    BlackRock
    Blue Chip Investor Fund
    BMO Funds
    BNY Mellon Funds
    Bogle
    Boston Advisors Trust
    Boston Common Asset Management, LLC
    Boston Trust & Walden Funds
    Boyar Value Fund
    BPV Family of Funds
    Brandes
    Brandywine
    Braver Wealth Mangaement, LLC
    Bretton Fund
    Bridgehampton
    Bridges
    Bridgeway
    Bright Rock
    Brookfield Investment Management Inc.
    Brown Advisory Funds
    Brown Capital Management
    Bruce
    BTS
    Buffalo
    Burnham
    Bushido
    Calamos
    Caldwell & Orkin
    Calvert Investments, Inc.
    Cambiar Funds
    CAMCo
    Camelot Portfolios, LLC
    Capital Advisors
    Capital Guardian Trust Company
    Capital Innovations, LLC
    Capital Management
    Capstone
    Caritas Capital LLC
    Carne
    Castle Investment Management
    Catalyst Mutual Funds
    Causeway
    Cavanal Hill funds
    CBRE Clarion Securities LLC
    Center Coast Capital Advisers LP
    Century Funds
    CGM
    Chaconia Funds
    Chadwick & D'Amato
    Champlain Funds
    Changing Parameters, LLC
    Chase
    Chesapeake
    Cheswold Lane Asset Management
    Chou America
    Christopher Weil & Company, Inc.
    Cincinnati Asset Management Funds
    Citigroup
    Clarity Fund
    Clark Capital Management Group, Inc.
    Clark Fork Trust
    Clear River
    Clipper Fund
    Cloud Capital
    CM Advisors
    CMG
    CNI Charter
    Cohen & Steers
    Coldstream
    Collins Capital Investments, LLC
    Columbia
    Commerce
    Commonwealth Intl Series Tr
    Compak
    Compass EMP
    Concorde
    Conestoga Capital Advisors
    Congress
    Congressional Effect Family
    Contravisory Investment Management, Inc.
    Convergence
    Cook & Bynum Capital Management, LLC
    Copeland Capital Management
    Copley
    CornerCap
    Cornerstone
    Cortina Funds, Inc.
    Country
    Cove Street Capital
    CRAFund
    Crawford
    Credit Suisse (New York, NY)
    Credit Suisse AG
    CRM
    Croft
    Crow Point Partners, LLC
    Cullen Funds Trust
    Cushing
    Cutler
    Cutwater Asset Management Corp.
    CWC
    Davidson Mutual Funds
    Davis Funds
    Davlin Philanthropic Fund
    Day Hagan
    Dean Fund
    Delaware Investments
    Destra
    Deutsche Bank
    DF Dent Funds
    DGHM
    DGI
    Diamond Hill Funds
    Dimensional Fund Advisors
    Direxion Funds
    DMS FUNDS
    Dodge & Cox
    Domini
    DoubleLine
    Dreman
    Drexel Hamilton Investment Partners, LLC
    Dreyfus
    Driehaus
    DSM
    DundeeWealth Funds
    Dunham Funds
    DuPont
    Dupree
    DWS Investments
    E.I.I.
    Eagle
    Eagle Funds
    EAS Genesis
    Eaton Vance
    Edgar Lomax
    Edgewood
    Elessar Investment Management
    Emerald
    Emerging Global Advisors
    Empire Builder
    Empiric Funds
    Encompass Fund
    EntrepreneurShares
    Epiphany Funds
    Equinox Funds Trust
    Equity Investment Corp
    Estabrook
    ETF Securities Ltd
    Euro Pacific Asset Management
    Euro Pacific Halter Asia Management, Inc
    Eventide Funds
    Evermore
    Exchange Traded Concepts, LLC
    Factor Capital Management, LLC
    Fairfax
    Fairholme
    FAM
    FAM Funds
    FCI Funds
    FDP Series Funds
    Federated
    Fidelity Investments
    Fiduciary Asset Management, LLC
    Financial Investors Trust (Aspen)
    Financial Investors Trust (Grandeur)
    First American
    First Eagle
    First Investors
    First Trust
    First Western Capital Mgt
    Firsthand Funds
    Flex-funds
    FMC Funds
    FMI Funds
    FolioMetrix
    Forester
    Formula Investing, LLC
    Fort Pitt Capital Funds
    Forward Funds
    Fountainhead Funds
    FPA
    Frank Funds
    Franklin Templeton Investment Funds
    Freedom Funds
    Frontegra Asset Management Inc
    Frontegra Funds
    Frost Funds
    Fund X
    FX Strategy Fund
    Gabelli
    GaveKal
    GE Asset Management
    Geier Funds
    Geneva Funds
    Gerstein Fisher
    Giant 5 Funds
    Ginkgo
    Glenmede
    GLG Inc
    Global X Funds
    GMG
    GMO
    Golden Capital Funds
    Goldman Sachs
    Golub
    GoodHaven
    Gotham
    Granite Investment Advisors, Inc.
    Grant Park
    Great Lakes Funds
    Great-West Funds
    Green Century
    GreenHaven
    Greenspring
    GRT
    Guggenheim Investments
    GuideMark
    GuidePath
    GuideStone Funds
    Guinness Atkinson
    Hagin Capital, LLC
    Hamlin Capital Mgt LLC
    Hancock Horizon
    Hancock Horizon Funds
    Hansberger Funds
    Harbor
    Harding Loevner
    Hart Group, Ltd.
    Hartford Mutual Funds
    Hatteras Alternative Mutual Funds Trust
    Haverford
    Heartland
    Henderson Global
    Hennessy
    Henssler Funds
    HighMark
    Hillman Capital Management
    HNP Capital LLC
    Hodges
    Holland Series Trust
    Homestead
    Hotchkis and Wiley
    HSBC
    Huber Funds
    Hundredfold
    Huntington
    Huntington Strategy Shares
    Hussman Funds
    ICM Series Trust
    ICON Funds
    Iknetics Capital Partners, LLC
    IMS
    IndexIQ
    ING Funds
    ING Retirement Funds
    Innealta Capital
    Institutional Advisors LLC
    Institutional Investors
    Integrity
    International Securites Exchange
    Intrepid Funds
    Invesco
    Investment House LLC
    Investment Partners
    Iron Funds
    IronBridge Funds, Inc.
    Ironclad Funds
    iShares
    ISI Funds
    IVA Funds
    Ivy Funds
    Jacob
    Jacobs Broel
    JAG Advisors
    James Advantage
    Janus
    Jensen
    John Hancock
    Johnson Mutual Funds
    Jordan Funds
    JPMorgan
    JPMorgan Asset Mgmt (Europe) S.a.r.l.
    JPMorgan Funds
    Jubak
    Kalmar Pooled Investment Trust
    KCM
    Keeley
    Kellner
    Keystone
    Kinetics
    Kirr Marbach Partners
    KKR
    Kottke
    Kovitz Investment Group, LLC
    Lacerte Capital
    Lateef Investment Management, L.p.
    Laudus Funds
    Lawson Kroeker Investment Management Inc
    Lazard
    LEADER
    Leavell
    Lee Financial Group Inc
    Leeb
    Legg Mason
    Legg Mason/Western
    Leuthold
    Liberty Street
    Lifetime Achievement Fund Inc
    Lincoln Financial Group
    Linde, Hansen & Co., LLC
    Litman Gregory Masters Funds
    LKCM
    LoCorr Fund Management, LLC
    Logan Capital
    Long Short
    Longboard
    Longleaf Partners
    LongView Capital Management LLC
    Loomis Sayles Funds
    Lord Abbett
    LSV Fund
    M.D. Sass Investors Services, Inc.
    Madison Mosaic
    MAI
    MainGate Trust
    MainStay
    Mairs & Power
    Makefield
    Managed Futures Solutions Fund
    Managers Funds
    Manning & Napier
    Manor Investment Funds
    Marathon Funds
    Mariner Fund Group
    Marketocracy Funds
    Marsico Investment Fund
    Martin Capital Management LLP
    MassMutual
    Matrix/LMH
    Matthew 25
    Matthews Asia Funds
    McKee Funds
    Meehan Focus
    MEMBERS
    Merger
    Meridian
    Merk Funds
    Merrill Lynch
    Metropolitan West Funds
    MFS
    MH Elite
    Midas
    Milestone
    Miller Investment
    Milliman
    Mirae Asset Global Investments (USA) LLC
    MMA Praxis
    Monetta
    Monteagle Funds
    Morgan Dempsey Capital Management, LLC
    Morgan Stanley
    Morgan Stanley & Co
    Morgan Stanley (New York)
    Motley Fool
    MP 63
    Muhlenkamp
    Munder
    Mundoval Funds
    Mutual of America
    Mutualhedge
    Muzinich
  • RMD: Not Such A Bad Thing After All
    There are a variety of gotchas that won't affect most people, but one should nevertheless be aware of:
    - You must calculate the RMD for each account separately (because a different table, i.e. divisor, may be used for different accounts, depending on whom the beneficiary is and the age of the beneficiary)
    - A completely different calculation applies to inherited IRAs (unless you've adopted them as your own, as you are allowed to do when inheriting from a spouse)
    - While you may take your IRA RMD from any or all of your traditional IRAs, and you may take your 401(k) RMD from any or all of your traditional 401(k)s, you may not take your traditional IRA RMD from your 401(k) or vice versa. These are two completely separate sets of accounts, even though they are both retirement accounts.
    - If you are doing Roth conversions, you must take the RMD from your account each year prior to withdrawing additional money for the Roth conversion
    Then there are the corner cases - the year you turn 70.5, the year you die. That's beyond the scope of this post :-)
  • Portfolios-Your top 3 holdings?
    Top 3: (I hold just 9 funds, total. The lion's share is in tax-sheltered retirement stuff.)
    PREMX 40%
    MAPIX 35%
    MAPOX 3.3%
    All the others are at 3% or less: SFGIX, TRAMX, MACSX, MAINX, MSCFX, DLFNX.
  • Portfolios-Your top 3 holdings?
    Hi Art....your top 3 are interesting, as I hold all 3 in a 401K.
    Your question asked about a top 3 in a retirement account...while I have separate 401K, IRA rollover and then after-tax accounts, I view them ALL as retirement accounts.
    As such, my top 3 holdings are high conviction, and the only ones which exist both in pre and after tax accounts:
    FAIRX
    FPACX
    RPMGX
    In aggregate, between 7-8.5% of total portfolio assets for each. Interestingly, none of these 3 are in the top 3 in any of their respective accounts.
  • Portfolios-Your top 3 holdings?
    GLD 6.3%
    VDIGX 6.1%
    OYEIX 5.9%
    Actually my largest holding is cash at 15,4% as I recently took profits in some stocks and waiting to deploy some of it into funds. Im about 56% stocks to 26% funds in retirement accounts, which will be closer to 56/38 when fully deployed. All of my bond allocation is in taxable account, but they are munis.
  • How many unique mutual funds are there?
    "Unique funds"? Uhhh ... about three.
    Walk through the Morningstar screen:
    Distinct portfolios = 6915, but that does count Fido Emerging Markets twice (Advisor and retail apparently have just enough differences...)
    Qualified access = "no" leads to 1391 funds. Here's Morningstar's definition of that screen: "This group includes funds that restrict investment to a certain group of investors. Sometimes, the restriction is based on religious or ethnic membership, e.g. Lutherans. Sometimes, the restriction is based on membership in a certain investment plan, e.g. a retirement plan or college-savings plan."
    Minimum purchase of no more than $10,000 = 1272.
    Open to new investment = 1206.
    No-load funds = 592.
    That number is doubtless wrong but it probably gives you an order of magnitude. For practical purposes, the no-load universe is likely under a thousand even including those "A" class funds available for purpose at NAV through supermarkets.
    David
  • Portfolios-Your top 3 holdings?
    I thought about using the new poll feature but this does not require "voting". My question is "What are your top 3 holdings, by percentage, in your retirement accounts? Why you ask since your age and other things may have a bearing on your choices. Let's just say I am curious. Mine are:
    Pimco Total Return,PTTDX-18%
    Allianz NFJ Small Cap Value-PCVAX-11%
    Oppenheimer Developing Markets-ODMAX-10%
    Art
  • RMD: Not Such A Bad Thing After All
    FYI Its the required amount that counts. If you have multiple retirement accounts, you can choose which one you take the distribution.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://assetbuilder.com/scott_burns/required_minimum_distributions_not_such_a_bad_thing_after_all
  • Portfolio Survival Analysis Using Real Data
    Hi Investor, Hi Greg,
    Thank you guys for taking time to reply to my post. Both your responses were thoughtful and thought provoking. They both added to the scope and utility of my original submittal.
    Investor, the articles that you suggested greatly expand the usefulness of my posting by identifying two strategies that focus on the execution of retirement portfolio maintenance. Retirees and near-retirees will benefit from exposure to these two excellent summary articles.
    Also, I was not aware that the author of the article I referenced was part of Paul Merriman’s FundAdvice staff. I did not recognize the potential conflict of interest. I like Merriman, but he has special incentives because of his financial relationships with DFA. There’s the possibilities of some biased opinions because of that relationship. Thanks for the heads-up. In this instance, I am not overly concerned of any major distortions or misrepresentations because I trust Merriman and I trust the DFA organization. Both do yeoman work.
    Greg, your interpretations of the reported work, and your intuitions on possible outcomes for the scenarios that you postulated are spot-on-target.
    Even today, for Monte Carlo codes that nominally adjust drawdown rates to reflect inflation rate changes, the Monte Carlo tools can be effectively used to examine the constant drawdown case you proposed. That’s simply done by setting inflation rate and it variability to zero in the inputs. The very first Monte Carlo code that I developed did not include an inflation adjustment. As you correctly perceived, the general contour, in terms of an optimum asset allocation distribution, are about the same both with and without inflation considerations. Portfolio failure rates are obviously impacted, but your excellent Bath-tube description as a function of equity percentages is still valid.
    Indeed, being ultra-conservative by including too few equities in a portfolio is a risky proposition in a retirement portfolio, especially these days with extremely low fixed-income yields. Remember that fixed-income products also have a returns volatility aspect. That variability essentially means that any drawdown schedule from most fixed-income dominated portfolios must be lower than the expected overall average return from that portfolio because of that lowered, but still non-zero, volatility. In the end, that translates into either a very low permissible (and not acceptable) withdrawal rate or an unrealistically gigantic portfolio size.
    Once again, thank you guys for your perceptive and useful inputs.
    Best Wishes.