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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • NIH Cuts Create a Lost Generation of Scientists From Bloomberg News
    Bloomberg News has a succinct summary of the disaster unfolding at the NIH and Biomedical Research around the country.
    "The Trump administration’s attacks on science and funding at the National Institutes of Health will set research and training for future scientists back a generation.
    This might sound melodramatic to anyone not intimately familiar with the world of academic training and research. But in just two months the administration has cut off opportunities at every phase in a scientist’s career. Unless funding and the freedom to pursue science without political bias are restored, biomedical research in the US will become less ambitious, less competitive and result in fewer breakthroughs.
    To recap: In his first days in office, President Donald Trump targeted the NIH, which spends more than 80% of its $48 billion budget on grants and other funding to universities and hospitals around the country. That funding ground to a halt, and damage was amplified two weeks later when the administration excised $4 billion in overhead costs from NIH grants — money that institutions rely on to run their facilities and pay support staff. That was followed by job cuts at the agency — reportedly nearly 1,200 of them, in areas spanning Alzheimer’s research to cancer. (Some of these moves have been halted, at least temporarily, by the courts.)
    More recently, scores of NIH grants were terminated because they didn’t align with the administration’s political ideology. Flagged topics include research on LGBT+ health, gender identity, diversity, equity and inclusion; vaccine hesitancy; and mRNA vaccines. Now, Trump seems to be using the NIH to punish universities that he feels have defied him. On Monday, the agency said it was terminating $250 million in grants to Columbia University, a move that will have a seismic impact on study and researchers there.
    Summer research programs at NIH and in university labs — experiences that help pull undergraduates into science careers — have been canceled. Graduate school admissions are being paused or cut back. Widespread hiring freezes are leaving postdoctoral researchers, on the cusp of launching their careers, in limbo.
    Assistant professors awaiting the NIH’s final approval on their first major grant, known as an R01, a critical step toward securing tenure, are worried their once promising careers are being snuffed out. Even well-established scientists tell me they’ve made lists of people in their labs to cut if the money doesn’t flow soon. I’m told some in the twilight of their careers are cutting back hours to preserve funding or are considering retirement.
    The entire pipeline of biomedical scientists, supported in one way or the other by the funding at NIH, is being culled.
    Unsurprisingly, morale — both at NIH and at the long list of institutions the agency funds — is in the basement. One researcher at a prominent New York-based cancer hospital told me he hasn’t been sleeping. A health equity researcher at Northwestern University, whose work hits on all of the buzzwords that Trump wants eradicated from federal government, teared up when describing what the situation means for the students she mentors. Making a career in science has always been exceptionally hard, she says, “and in this environment, it’s just making it impossible. I’m afraid we’re going to lose some of the best minds.” (Many researchers asked not to be named out of fear about the status of funding under review at NIH.)
    Ashley de Marchena, an autism expert at Drexel University, said the funding uncertainty led one of her trainees to look for a job rather than pursue a doctoral degree. Not only is the time and taxpayer investment in building their research skills lost, but the student, who is neurodivergent, is someone whose unique perspective should be nurtured, not pushed into another career path.
    “So many entry points [to research] are gone now,” says Julianne Meisner, an epidemiologist in the University of Washington’s Department of Global Health. She recently advised a student finishing her master’s degree to consider applying to PhD programs abroad. They might offer less money, but they bring more certainty. And those institutes clearly see an opportunity to siphon some of America’s brightest: at least one French university is advertising itself to US students as a “safe place for science.”
    Meanwhile, those who persist are shrinking their ambitions to fit a more hostile environment. A theme I heard over and over again is that researchers will do less bold science, ask fewer questions, make fewer discoveries.
    There’s little sign that the damage will be repaired once new leadership is in place at NIH. During his Senate confirmation hearing last week, Jay Bhattacharya, Trump’s pick to lead the agency, seemed unruffled by the turmoil. If anything, his equivocation about the upheaval suggests he’s on board with whatever changes those above him demand next.
    Bhattacharya dodged questions about restoring funding and instead emphasized the need to restore trust in public health, a project he believes requires “freedom” and “transparency.”
    It's hard to imagine a less trustworthy or transparent process, or one less attuned to academic freedom than what’s unfolding. Sidelining and muzzling a generation of scientists, dismantling the nation’s research apparatus and ultimately ceding scientific supremacy to China and Europe does not seem like the right way to restore trust.
    For the public, all of this might seem hard to grasp — or even care about. But eventually we will all be affected. It’ll show up as the hit to the local economy when scientists and staff lose their jobs. It’ll take the form of a widening gap in access to equitable health care. It’ll be the Alzheimer’s treatment or cancer vaccine that never quite makes it over the finish line."
    Oh BTW Bhattacharya recieved an MD degree but has never practiced medicine ( not even an internship ), has never seen a patient independently and has never done any biological research. He is a health economist. Great choice to lead the world's most formidable biomedical research institution. All because he co-authored "The Great Barrington Declaration"
    Not mentioned above, almost 100 senior level NIH investigators have had their salaries suspended and their lab budgets frozen and government credit cards canceled. These are people specifically recruited to the NIH to run cutting edge research, done no where else in the world. There are 16,000 grant proposals waiting for study sections that have been canceled and legally mandatory notice in the Federal Register that has been shut down.
    Student internships for thousands of the brightest STEM college kids to work in labs all around the country this summer have been cancelled.
    This will have a generational, decades and decades negative impact on the US as a Research mecca and biotech innovator. For what? The Chinese are ecstatic.
    Far more significant than the shutdown of the NOAA .
  • Trump says he’ll raise tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%. Or Not. Or Maybe.

    brookfield's mark carney is leaving to become Canada's next PM and deal with trump. carney also has experience as Bank Governor for 2 nations ; this is bringing a bazooka to a pillow fight.
    on top of that, the Canadian people seem pretty tired of all MAGA\musk agendas. they seem willing to take the pain of keeping their tariffs in place for some time until flops stop and someone (else) is leading serious negotiations and not pimping propaganda.
    but hey, at least there is trumpcoin for american retirement. , and~40 fewer lbs of northern fentanyl, which has suddenly become bessent's expertise.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I had been lamenting not reducing our retirement equity positions from 38% to 33%, but after these last few market drops, I held my nose and made a minor contribution to VTI and VIG. Falling knife? Probably.
  • tariff bluster from Trump is just that: a pretext
    I do not want to get into OT but
    IMO, there can be more than one goal here. I would not be surprised if one of the goals is regime change. The other could be to announce to the world how mean our government can be - by slapping around a dearest friend. I think @WABAC said well in one of his recent posts - no point trying to figure out “why.”
    Well, that's just me, and my retirement.
    I don't blame the Canadians for taking him, and his minions, at their words, and regarding the threat as existential. Trudeau and Joly have been quite specific about that. We'll see if that changes after the party conference tomorrow. I doubt it.
    I couldn't help but notice their recent action against our largest pork processor, that just happens to be owned by the ChiComs. No doubt the paper work will be straightened out eventually.
  • Private-Equity Wants a Piece of Your 401(k)
    There is greed and then there is fear (fear of not having enough for retirement) and both seem to motivate people to take similar risks.
    You know how defined benefit plans were phased out by companies (encouraging employees to get into 401(k) which helped the stock market) and now the last DB plan like is social security. If private equity and private credit wants to gain more market share, they really need to work on the US government phasing out social security, which should really motivate more people to get into private equity and private credit. Pure demand and supply.
    I would watch the Bigs (APO, KKR, BX, BLK (new), etc.)' for how and to what extent they bifurcate burdens from benefits using public markets which would give us an indication of the systemic risks they would create while the Fed and US government is focused on the last war culprits (banks).
  • Private-Equity Wants a Piece of Your 401(k)
    Hard-pass.
    But they can't resist getting their grubby paws on the trillions in pensions/retirement accounts...
  • Private-Equity Wants a Piece of Your 401(k)
    Private-equity wants a slice of your 401k and it’s counting on some help from Trump Administration. The wrappers being considered are OEFs, CITs, interval-funds (IFs; buy anytime, but redemptions are limited). The TDFs can invest 5-10% in alternatives including private-equity/credit, but most plans don’t even do that fearing possible troubles with ERISA. High fees are another problem that may attract class action lawsuits. To address illiquidity, some firms have partnered with liquidity-providers. The 401k plans with brokerage windows shift all risks to the plan participants, but then why not just buy private-equity/credit giants APO, KKR, BX, BLK, etc.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/retirement-401k-private-equity-62be9228?refsec=mutual-funds&mod=topics_mutual-funds
  • M*: What We’ve Learned From 150 Years of Stock Market Crashes
    Today my wife mentioned the following AP story to me: If you're thinking about selling your stocks, you might want to think twice
    I explained to her that we are only selling the winners in our IRA. We aren't locking in losses. We remain in widow and orphan funds so long as they do well. We remain invested in our taxables, with healthy cash cushions besides. So if everything goes right, we won't be missing out on much.
    What these anodyne articles aren't mentioning is the potential impact of an international trade war. The tariffs under discussion aren't just on steel and aluminum. And they aren't just on one country. We aren't talking 2018 tariffs, we're talking 1929 tariffs.
    In addition to considering the usual, and varied, factors and data points surrounding market valuations and business cycles, we must now take into account the announced intentions of politicians and technocrats to remake entire markets according to their desired outcome.
    And what I see out there is considerable uncertainty discerning the intentions of the guy in charge. While some people see the uncertainty as the sign of an unparalleled negotiator, others say maybe it's time we start paying attention to what the guy says he wants to do.
    Be that as it may, my wife and I must ask ourselves if we trust the politicians and technocrats to steer the markets to their desired outcome without piling up on the rocks, grounding on the shoals, or going to anchorage to await further directions. Then we must ask whether this exercise will be of any near-term benefit to our retirement accounts given the precarious status of Social Security.
    The following is a cartoon from our last trade war with Canada:
    image
    Elbows up.
  • Market Concerns - are you hedging your portfolio, or is it business as usual?
    Mag 7 stocks are behaving differently these days. Tesla stock is trailing badly from its peak. Sale in China grew only 1% while the local Chinese brands are growing in double digits.
    Otherwise, we are increasing cash position via our treasury ladder and USFR, just in case. Our retirement is in sight, now we are a cash bucket to cover several years of living expenses. The rest are invested conservatively in case of severe drawdown and/or recession this year.
  • Market Concerns - are you hedging your portfolio, or is it business as usual?
    There is currently a lot of uncertainty in the markets.
    I surely don't know what will transpire in the near-term.
    I may increase my bond/cash holdings slightly since I'm approaching retirement.
    Otherwise, it's business as usual...
  • Social Security WEP & GPO
    Barron's has also raised concerns, https://www.barrons.com/articles/social-security-checks-doge-cuts-musk-0862aa39?mod=past_editions
    My summary for those who cannot access Barron's article (LINK):
    "RETIREMENT. DOGE is now going after the SSA. The charges of massive fraud have been discredited by accounting for dependent and survivor benefits that are tracked under the original Social Security recipient who may have passed away. The SSA expenses are only about 1% of the benefits the SSA pays out (It would be lower on the so-called SSA assets that are really Treasury IOUs; moreover, all of the Medicare application processing is also through the SSA, while states process the Medicaid applications). The SSA Inspector General found that between 2015-2022, only 1% of the SSA payments were improper. Those who have gone through the process of getting SSA benefits realize how difficult it’s to cheat the system.
    There are problems with the SSA, but those don’t include fraud. There is a mismatch of the FICA revenues and benefits paid out that the Congress must address within 10 years. Take Administration’s promise to protect Social Security with a grain of salt – just look at how its promises to protect Medicare and Medicaid went in its recent budget. If your SSA check suddenly stops, DOGE probably ate it. So, keep an eye on your SSA direct deposits, signup or login to My Social Security and print your work earnings history and information on benefits. Fraudsters are already exploiting the situation by sending fake emails or making fraudulent calls – beware that the SSA doesn’t do that unless it has sent you a formal notification via the USPS.
    "
  • John Hancock ESG International Equity Fund will be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/22370/000119312525042403/d652018d497.htm
    497 1 d652018d497.htm JOHN HANCOCK INVESTMENT TRUST

    Prospectus Supplement
    John Hancock Investment Trust
    John Hancock ESG International Equity Fund
    Supplement dated March 1, 2025 to the current Prospectus, as may be supplemented (the Prospectus)
    At its meeting held on December 10-12, 2024, the Board of Trustees (the Board) of John Hancock Investment Trust, of which John Hancock ESG International Equity Fund (ESG International Equity) is a series, voted to recommend that the shareholders of ESG International Equity approve a reorganization, that is expected to be tax-free, of ESG International Equity into John Hancock Global Environmental Opportunities Fund (Global Environmental Opportunities, and together with ESG International Equity, the funds), also a series of John Hancock Investment Trust, as described below (the Reorganization). Shareholders of record as of February 5, 2025, are entitled to vote on the Reorganization.
    Under the terms of the Reorganization, subject to shareholder approval at a shareholder meeting scheduled to be held on or about April 3, 2025, ESG International Equity would transfer all of its assets to Global Environmental Opportunities in exchange for corresponding shares of Global Environmental Opportunities. Global Environmental Opportunities would assume substantially all of ESG International Equity’s liabilities. The corresponding shares of Global Environmental Opportunities would then be distributed to ESG International Equity’s shareholders, and ESG International Equity would be terminated. If approved by ESG International Equity’s shareholders, the Reorganization is expected to occur as of the close of business on or about April 25, 2025 (the Closing Date). Further information regarding the proposed Reorganization is contained in a proxy statement and prospectus, which became available February 14, 2025.
    ESG International Equity will remain open to purchases and redemptions from existing shareholders until the Closing Date. ESG International Equity no longer accepts orders from new investors to purchase shares of ESG International Equity. However, discretionary fee-based advisory programs, certain retirement accounts and/or model portfolios that include ESG International Equity as an investment option as of the close of business January 13, 2025, may continue to make ESG International Equity shares available to new and existing accounts.
    Prior to the Reorganization, any dividends paid will be paid in accordance with the current dividend option of an account; accounts in which the dividend reinvestment option has been chosen will receive any dividends in the form of additional shares of ESG International Equity.
    To satisfy an Internal Revenue Service requirement, ESG International Equity hereby designates the maximum amount of the net long-term gains earned, if any, as a capital gain dividend, with respect to ESG International Equity’s final taxable year. Please refer to Form 1099-DIV for tax reporting purposes.
    The foregoing is not an offer to sell, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy, any shares in connection with the Reorganization, nor is it a solicitation of any proxy. For important information regarding ESG International Equity or Global Environmental Opportunities, or to receive a free copy of the proxy statement/prospectus relating to the proposed merger, once it is available, please call the funds’ toll-free telephone number: 800-225-5291 (Class A) or 888-972-8696 (Class I and Class R6). The proxy statement/prospectus contains important information about fund objectives, strategies, fees, expenses, risks, and the Board’s considerations in approving the Reorganization. The proxy statement/prospectus also will be available for free on the SEC’s website (www.sec.gov). Please read the proxy statement/prospectus carefully before making any decision to invest in any shares in connection with the Reorganization or when considering whether to vote for the Reorganization.
    You should read this supplement in conjunction with the Prospectus and retain it for your future reference.
  • Significant workforce reductions' are coming to the Social Security Administration
    Mike Piper discusses Social Security benefit calculations in the following article.
    Piper's Prose
  • Significant workforce reductions' are coming to the Social Security Administration
    Following are excerpts from a current NPR report:
    The Social Security Administration (SSA) announced Thursday that it "will soon implement agency-wide organizational restructuring that will include significant workforce reductions."
    The planned cuts, which are in line with an executive order from President Trump to broadly slash the federal workforce, are raising concerns about staffing at the agency that disburses retirement savings, as well as disability and survivor benefits, to tens of millions of Americans.
    Advocates say long wait times for services have plagued the agency for years, and its staffing of some 60,000 employees is already at about a 50-year low. Ahead of the looming broader cuts, at least five of eight regional commissioners have recently resigned, according to a senior SSA official who was not authorized to speak to the press.
    Morale at the agency is extremely low, the source said, as staff are crying in meetings and managers are trying to reassure their employees during a time of great uncertainty.
    "The public is going to suffer terribly as a result of this," the source wrote to NPR. "Local field offices will close, hold times will increase, and people will be sicker, hungry, or die when checks don't arrive or a disability hearing is delayed just one month too late."
    Trump has said that Social Security "won't be touched" as he continues to make sweeping cuts to the federal government.
    Until now, the SSA has been largely spared from efforts, mainly overseen by billionaire Elon Musk, to slash the size of the federal government. That includes a federal hiring freeze and more recent dismissals of large numbers of mostly newer workers. But in the last week or so, the agency has faced much of the same chaos and disruption that has been experienced by other federal departments. Changes at the agency are also leading to worries among employees and cybersecurity experts about the protection of sensitive records.
    The agency's prior acting commissioner, Michelle King, was recently replaced after clashing with associates of Musk's Department of Government Efficiency who sought access to sensitive personal data held by the agency. King has been replaced by Leland Dudek, who was being investigated internally before being promoted, according to the SSA official.
    The protection of sensitive data is one of the top concerns for SSA employees: "SSA is incredibly risk averse. And for good reason," the SSA official said. "The data we house is intimate and comprehensive. Every U.S. man, woman and child (living and dead), has a Social Security Number and records of their work, income, tax, disability and civil relationships. And now DOGE has access to all of it."
    The SSA's servers are vast, complex and archaic, processing billions of data points a day, often using programming languages that few people are familiar with, the source continued. Those systems are already under constant attack by digital adversaries from around the world, creating a constant challenge for those tasked with protecting the systems.
    There are no indications that the engineers working with DOGE have gone through required training to protect federal records, the source said, nor specific agency-level training to work in each department's unique systems. Lawmakers have already begun to raise the alarm about cybersecurity concerns of DOGE's access to federal systems, while legal cases about DOGE's access are ongoing.
    Max Richtman, president & CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, told NPR that the process to get disability benefits, in particular, is "so cumbersome and difficult to navigate" and insufficiently staffed that in the last couple of years, "about 10,000 claimants who appealed for their benefits die waiting for their claim to be resolved."
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 2/26/25
    I would not overreact to these numbers. The still very high percentage (a record high at last check) of retail investor wealth held in stocks is much more telling. I’m willing to give some credence to the theory among some that the passive index based equity flows, largely into retirement accounts, is fueling the passive bid and keeping the most expensive market segments aloft. I can’t prove that, but I am exercising more than an ounce of caution.
    Unrelated perhaps - But just as retail investor interest in gold was ramping up the metal has lost a bit of steam - off more than $100 from its record high of a week ago near $2900. $3,000. That’s chump change as gold goes at this point. I suspect gold will run a lot higher. But not willing to take a chance on it. Have a very small hold in GGN which has (somewhat surprisingly) lost a bit over the short time since buying. If my eyes are not deceiving me, oil has fallen below $70 today which, along with gold, helps explain the hit to GGN.
    The 10 year chart at M* doesn’t reflect the disastrous runs gold and gold & p/c mining funds endured in the past. Pulling up 15-20 year charts for gold & mining funds would be very enlightening. Look before you jump.
  • Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 3/1/25
    Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 3/1/25
    TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
    No changes; early release; new declaration yr starts
    Restricted RC 5.50%, RA 5.25%
    Flexible RCP 4.75%, SRA 4.50%, IRA-101110+ 4.75%
    TSP G Fund 4.250% (previous 4.625%). (Edited 3/3/25)
    Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
    #StableValue #401k #403b #TIAA #TSP
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1892/thread
  • Ever try constructing your own “fund of funds”?
    I suspect all of us on the board, followers of David and MFO, me since 2011 and before that with Fund Alarm, look to build our own FOFs.
    David publishes his periodically.
    In recent years, the proliferation of model portfolios, do essentially provide FOFs.
    Ditto most FAs or RIAs, either those they download from their platforms, likely sponsored, or those they create on their own ... the more independent and thoughtful ones, perhaps.
    Target Retirement Funds are essentially FOFs too.
    At quick search on MFOP shows there are presently 1719 FOFs offered in the US: 1276 are Mixed-Asset, nearly all "actively managed," including 386 Insurance Funds.
    Focusing just on actively managed OEFs and ETFs, Federated Hermes Global Allocation (FSTBX) is the oldest at 65 years. And, not surprisingly, Vanguard Target Retirement funds are the largest, followed by American Funds Target Date Retirement funds.
  • JPMorgan Hedged Equity
    Thanks JD_co. I'd use HELO but I probably will set up Fidelity automatic recurring withdrawals in retirement (my retirement paycheck) so I would need the mutual fund version for that.
  • JPMorgan Hedged Equity
    What do you all think of JHQAX as a primary holding in a taxable account, in retirement?

    Low SD, decent returns and minimal distributions of any kind. So why not, especially for retirees.
    I use HELO. They perform similarly.
  • JPMorgan Hedged Equity
    What do you all think of JHQAX as a primary holding in a taxable account, in retirement?