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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Todd Combs Leaving BRK for JPM
    I am curious about your use of the adjective “ambitious.” The dude isn’t a young guy right out of B school. What is the implication here?

    LOL -
    "Ambition should be made of sterner stuff."
    Hope it's OK to mention the current Barron's article here re a huge exodus of top engineers & executives from Apple along with speculation Cook is nearing retirement. There's a slight connection to BRK. Buffett unloaded a lot of Apple stock, a top holding, over the past year.
    Added note: BRK -2.5% as of noon time.
    Regarding Apple, the move of Alan Dye to Meta and the retirement of the head of AI are actually considered net wins for the company. As one wag put it, with Alan Dye’s move to Meta, “The average IQ of both companies has increased.”
  • T.D.F-CITs Are Also Getting Into Private-equity/Credit & Cryptos
    I'm wary of recent efforts to allow private equity and private credit in retirement plans.
    Retirement savers may not benefit financially although it may be lucrative for firms
    offering these investment products.
  • Todd Combs Leaving BRK for JPM
    I am curious about your use of the adjective “ambitious.” The dude isn’t a young guy right out of B school. What is the implication here?
    LOL - "Ambition should be made of sterner stuff."
    Hope it's OK to mention the current Barron's article here re a huge exodus of top engineers & executives from Apple along with speculation Cook is nearing retirement. There's a slight connection to BRK. Buffett unloaded a lot of Apple stock, a top holding, over the past year.
    Added note: BRK -2.5% as of noon time.
  • T.D.F-CITs Are Also Getting Into Private-equity/Credit & Cryptos
    T.D.F.-CITs Are Also Getting Into Private-equity/Credit & Cryptos
    The original premise of CITs (collective investment trusts) was good - they are unlisted, loosely regulated by the banking regulator OCC (not the securities regulator SEC), & have lower ERs. CITs are available in many workplace retirement plans (401k/403b).
    TDFs (target-date funds) with glide-path allocations exploded after they were allowed as default options in workplace retirement plans.
    The next step was T.D.F.-CITs, supposedly the ultimate in simplicity. Now, 52% of the TDFs are T.D.F.-CITs; they overtook mutual fund TDFs (T.D.F.-OEFs) in 06/2024.
    There have been several recent rules that allow new things within the T.D.F. structure - alternatives such as private-equity/credit & cryptos within CITs, & lifetime income options.
    But T.D.F.-OEFs & T.D.F.-CITs are different animals. T.D.F.-CITs were supposed to be very simple funds for the general public.
    Those simple aspects of T.D.F.-CITs may now be abused.
    Loose CIT regulations mean that the limits & scrutiny that SEC imposes on alternatives in listed funds don't apply to T.D.F.-CITs. They may also not fully disclose the ERs of the underlying funds, so some T.D.F.-CIT ERs maybe misleading.
    By claiming to offer expensive alternatives within T.D.F.-CITs, their low ERs may go out of the window. The CIT sponsors will make yeah-but (yabut) justifications for high ERs - i.e. yes, the ERs are low, but alternatives are expensive.
    Keep an eye on changes your T.D.F.-CIT may be making - in its name or objectives. Know what your T.D.F.-CIT is getting into or has - you may be surprised.
    WSJ https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/do-you-really-know-whats-inside-your-401-k-c480ec9c
    MSN https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/do-you-really-know-what-s-inside-your-401-k/ar-AA1RLP3d
  • Vanguard Unveils Target-Date Series With Annuity Access
    "Vanguard, the nation’s leading provider of target date solutions*,
    is deepening its commitment to retirement innovation through a collaboration with TIAA,
    a pioneer and leader in guaranteed lifetime income.
    This collaboration brings together two trusted names in the retirement industry to deliver
    a retirement income solution designed to provide retirees access to a guaranteed income stream for life."
    "'Retirement isn’t one-size-fits-all, and for those who want more predictability,
    guaranteed income can provide added peace of mind alongside their savings,'
    said Lauren Valente, Managing Director and Head of Vanguard Workplace Solutions.
    'In working with TIAA, another mission-driven organization, we’re giving participants
    an option to turn a portion of their savings into income they can count on for life.'"
    https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/who-we-are/pressroom/press-release-vanguard-launches-target-retirement-lifetime-income-trusts-120325.html
    * Source: Based on AUM market share of the TDf industry. Sources: Vanguard and Morningstar, Inc.,
    as of September 30, 2025.
  • Vanguard Unveils Target-Date Series With Annuity Access
    "The Vanguard Target Retirement Lifetime Income series follows the same glide path as the flagship funds
    until age 55, when it begins allocating to the TIAA Secure Income Account, a savings annuity.
    A savings annuity lets you build up money over time and later convert it into an income stream for life
    backed by the insurance company. By age 65, the annuity portion will reach 25% of the portfolio,
    and investors can decide whether to convert that portion into lifetime income payments.
    This series will only be available through defined-contribution plans, such as 401(k)s."
    "The TIAA Secure Income Account carries no explicit expense ratio, so total costs are expected to be the same
    or lower than Vanguard’s standard Target Retirement Funds.
    Fees start at 0.08% for the mutual fund and can be lower for collective investment trusts,
    depending on plan size."
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/vanguard-unveils-first-new-target-date-series-since-2003
  • Rare Thanksgiving week S@P buy signal
    So we transition from "Thanksgiving Week Buy Signal" into "Santa Clause Rally"?
    S&P is a world of its own as far as I'm concerned. Highly concentrated and buoyed by passive flows into retirement plans. Those flows have been known to slow markedly during down markets adding to the decline. (And if you're out of work during a recession it's unlikely you'll be contributing to the plan.)
    I think tech analysis is one good way to understand the markets and may well suggest what will happen a month or even several months out. Longer term? There could be trouble in River City.
  • Bond Market Retrospective
    " It is refreshing to have an established bond analyst to discuss the process of exploring various sectors of bonds and their inefficiencies."
    But I don't see why we need an "established bond analyst" when we already have FD1000.

    Well, if your toilet ain’t working, do you want a
    general therapist who claims to know a lot about everything from gutter repair to toasters? Or do you want a dedicated plumber with all the right tools?
    "great" post.
    Since retirement I have been in at least 95% bonds. In the last 3.5 years, I have been in 99+%.
    The images below, which I copied directly from Schwab, show I made 11.4% since 1-1-2018 and 11. 8% in the last 5 years.
    Go ahead and find a bond fund that beat the above performance and never lost more than 1% from any last top.
    https://ibb.co/yn39KpsC
    https://ibb.co/27w1XV1w
    My toilet is flushing pretty well.
  • Bond Market Retrospective
    [snip]
    If your goal is to earn more with lower volatility, which is where I am since retirement,
    then a few principles stand out:
    Consider funds from small to medium-sized shops; they often have more flexibility
    and can uncover opportunities larger firms can’t
    .
    Newer funds can sometimes perform even better because they’re more nimble.
    Don’t obsess over expense ratios; what ultimately matters is performance after fees.
    The bond market is unique; certain segments can outperform for only a few months (sometimes longer),
    so active trading and tactical skill really matter
    .
    Timing is also critical, especially avoiding major drawdowns like in 2020, 2022, and 2024.
    [snip]
    For those who haven't listened to the podcast or read the transcript,
    I would like to clarify that these "principles" were never mentioned during the extensive conversation.
  • Bond Market Retrospective
    Great interview—excellent explanation of why bonds are different and how skilled managers can take advantage of inefficiencies in the bond market.
    If your goal is to earn more with lower volatility, which is where I am since retirement, then a few principles stand out:
    Consider funds from small to medium-sized shops; they often have more flexibility and can uncover opportunities larger firms can’t.
    Newer funds can sometimes perform even better because they’re more nimble.
    Don’t obsess over expense ratios; what ultimately matters is performance after fees.
    The bond market is unique; certain segments can outperform for only a few months (sometimes longer), so active trading and tactical skill really matter.
    Timing is also critical, especially avoiding major drawdowns like in 2020, 2022, and 2024.
    I listened to most of the interview, but I didn’t hear much about where to invest now, which is ultimately the guidance most of us are looking for.
    CEFs? I only use them when I’m completely out of the market due to very high risk, like in 2022, when they can drop sharply within days. In those situations I trade them for hours. Other than that, I don't touch them.
  • Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 12/1/25
    Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 12/1/25
    TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
    EARLY release! 25 bps increases, except no change for IRA.
    Restricted RC 5.00%, RA 4.75%
    Flexible RCP 4.25%, SRA 4.00%, IRA-101110+ 3.75%
    TSP G Fund pending (previous 4.125%).
    Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
    #StableValue #401k #403b #TIAA #TSP
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2317/thread
  • The ‘S&P 493’ reveals a very different U.S. economy
    Following are edited excerpts from a current report in The Washington Post:
    A few trillion-dollar companies are powering the market’s gains. Here’s what’s happening to most other businesses in the United States.
    On its face, 2025 has been a good year for the stock market. The S&P 500 was dragged out of its tariff-induced springtime slump by a small subset of AI-forward power players whose spectacular gains defied an otherwise softening economy. Even now, despite a rocky November, the benchmark index is up more than 12 percent since the start of the year.
    A group of trillion-dollar brands known as the “Magnificent Seven” — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla — has been at the forefront of those gains, thanks in large part to corporate spending and intense interest in artificial intelligence. But economists and investors are raising concerns about the companies that aren’t part of the AI investment boom — in other words, most businesses in the United States.
    An index that leaves out the seven high-flying tech firms — call it the S&P 493 — reveals a far weaker picture, as smaller and lower-tech companies report lackluster sales and declining investment.
    “You have the headwind of de-globalization and tariffs, and the tailwind of AI … those forces are battling to a draw, and in that crosswind you get winners and losers,” said Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. “Anything that is not connected to AI is throttled lower.”

                            Strip out the Magnificent 7 and the rally looks less impressive
    image
    Some experts are worried that the S&P 500, an index of large-company stocks that underpins the fortunes of millions of Americans with 401(k) and other retirement accounts, has become too reliant on the Magnificent Seven; they collectively account for about a third of its value, leaving the broader stock market heavily dependent on the continued success of “the AI trade,” says Torsten Slok, chief economist at the private equity firm Apollo Global Management.
    “There is no diversification in the S&P 500 anymore in my view … it is all the AI story now,” Slok said.
    Publicly traded small and midsize companies have taken a beating by comparison. The Russell 2000 lost 4.5 percent in the one-month period leading up to Friday, compared with a loss of around 2 percent for the S&P 500. A little more than a third of the companies in the Russell 2000 index either don’t make money or are losing money.
    The market’s concentration in Big Tech has also given rise to concerns about what would be left if an AI bubble were to burst. Those fears have been amplified in recent weeks as Big Tech names suffered a modest sell-off, with some analysts raising concerns that the AI industry has overspent on infrastructure at a time when the technology’s actual profit-generating potential is still nascent.
    Tech stocks have endured a series of rocky sell-offs since late October, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq index falling around 7 percent from its Oct. 29 peak. Markets rebounded Friday, with the index trimming some of its losses from earlier in the week.
    Slok, the Apollo economist, says he is particularly worried about the recent AI losses because so much of the recent economic growth has been shored up by free-spending wealthy households. A deep correction in AI stocks, if it ever arrived, could threaten the “wealth effect” that is doing so much to prop up the economy, Slok warned.

  • Anyone talk investments with friends?
    our guy says we are doing great "
    That raises an interesting question. Assuming this is for someone in retirement, what would ”doing great” mean YTD?
    Someone sitting 100% in cash would think 5% YTD is “great.”
    Playing in longer dated CDs …. maybe 7%?
    With 100% in a balanced fund 10% might appear “great.”
    For an actively managed broadly diversified portfolio +15% might be “great “
    With an hefty exposure to gold / precious metals, +30% YTD might represent “great”.
    Disclosure: My performance has not been “great”, but is OK. I’ve managed to step on my own toes a few times this year.
    I think most people would be even hard pressed to answer what they meant by "doing great". and that might be fine. it could be, we set up a plan and we are on track. but IMO its unfathomable to me to leave that to trusting a person who even though is maybe bound by some fiduciary "code", really can have whatever motives they want.
    In most of my circles, most people think their advisor is staring at candlestick charts shouting "buy" "sell" into a phone all day long and had their finger on the pulse of the market and is beating the pants off the market. So when they say "great!" they usually think they are beating some benchmark because their guy is uniquely intelligent enough to position them in that way.
  • Anyone talk investments with friends?
    our guy says we are doing great "
    That raises an interesting question. Assuming this is for someone in retirement, what would ”doing great” mean YTD?
    Someone sitting 100% in cash would think 5% YTD is “great.”
    Playing in longer dated CDs …. maybe 7%?
    With 100% in a balanced fund 10% might appear “great.”
    For an actively managed broadly diversified portfolio +15% might be “great “
    With an hefty exposure to gold / precious metals, +30% YTD might represent “great”.
    Disclosure: My performance has not been “great”, but is OK. I’ve managed to step on my own toes a few times this year.
  • Anyone talk investments with friends?
    IMO even bogleheads invest very different from each other surprisingly.
    Most of my friends don't care or pay attention to anything around investing or retirement.
    that said they know i pay attention and have asked me for information here or there. I have a few books that i recommend or lend out. most of the time even if they read them, it doesn't bring about much discussion. or we'll talk about it.
    whats funny is that I know pretty well about half a dozen financial advisors and even they don't like talking shop. The one friend who is largely a insurance salesperson moreso an advisor and I have pretty great conversations because he is genuinely curious and feels like he's been led astray somewhat by the industry he's in.
    The guys that taught me were older gentlemen. they loved talking this and its what got me to start paying attention.
    people want conversations around 10X'ing on some stock, nobody wants to talk about what trowe price, vanguard, or capital group is doing in the world of mutual funds and ETF's.
  • Lazard Global Equity Select Portfolio will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874964/000093041325003441/c114414_497.htm
    497 1 c114414_497.htm
    THE LAZARD FUNDS, INC.
    Lazard Global Equity Select Portfolio
    Supplement to Current Summary Prospectus and Prospectus
    The Board of Directors of The Lazard Funds, Inc. (the “Fund”) has approved the liquidation of Lazard Global Equity Select Portfolio (the “Portfolio”).
    No further investments are being accepted into the Portfolio, except for investments by certain brokers or other financial intermediaries or employee benefit or retirement plans (acting on behalf of their clients or participants) with pre-existing investments in the Portfolio pursuant to an agreement or other arrangement with the Fund, the Distributor or another agent of the Fund regarding Portfolio investments. Promptly upon completion of liquidation of the Portfolio’s investments, the Portfolio will redeem all its outstanding shares by distribution of its assets to shareholders in amounts equal to the net asset value of each shareholder’s Portfolio investment. It is anticipated that the Portfolio’s assets will be distributed to shareholders on or about December 30, 2025.
    Prior to the liquidation of the Portfolio, depending on the arrangements of any broker or other financial intermediary associated with your account through which Portfolio shares are held, the Fund’s exchange privilege may allow you to exchange shares of the Portfolio for shares of the same Class of another series of the Fund in an identically registered account. Please see the section of the Prospectus entitled “Shareholder Information—Investor Services—Exchange Privilege” for more information.
    Dated: November 13, 2025
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
  • Funds in Morningstar’s 401(k)
    To force typewriter-like WYSIWYG formatting, surround the text with <PRE> and </PRE>. Then whitespace won't collapse and tabs will be treated as tabs. The only trick needed is to get the right number of tabs (or whitespaces) in each spot so things space out correctly.
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    In the end, the data is more important than the presentation. (Thank you for the numbers.) With basically just a fund name and a dollar amount on each line, the table was already readable.
    		Fund			   Value
    Vanguard Institutional Index $221,250,199
    Vanguard Developed Markets Index Instl $83,722,284
    Vanguard Total Bond Market Index $71,995,591
    Vanguard Small Cap Index Instl $70,044,449
    Personal Choice Retirement $67,962,323
    Harbor Capital Appreciation $44,636,465
    Primecap Odyssey Aggr Growth $36,342,335
    Vanguard FTSE Social Index $32,061,017
    Vanguard Emrg Mkts Index Adm $30,301,024
    Vanguard Selected Value $28,262,985
    Washington Mutual Fund R6 $27,567,856
    American Funds New World R6 $26,086,153
    Dodge & Cox International Stock $25,466,788
    Pimco Total Return Fund Cl A $24,645,158
    Oakmark Select Investor $21,042,844
    Vanguard Intl Growth Admiral $20,605,184
    PIMCO Real Return Fund Instl $20,450,560
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2040 $18,932,495
    T. Rowe Price Stable Value Com Trust A $18,533,530
    Vanguard Real Estate Inx Instl $17,500,289
    Dodge & Cox Global Bond Fund $17,214,377
    Royce Special Equity Svc $13,314,096
    PIMCO Commodity Real Ret Instl $11,423,605
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2050 $11,124,375
    Vanguard Fed Money Market Fund $9,010,788
    T Rowe Price High Yield $7,981,306
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2060 $7,417,153
    Loomis Sayles Bond Fund $7,338,851
    Wasatch Small Cap Growth Fund $6,467,915
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2030 $5,930,256
    Invesco Developing Markets R5 $4,460,437
    DFA International Small Company $4,349,683
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2045 $1,642,105
    Vanguard Target Retmt Income $1,235,913
    Personal Choice Retirement 2 $1,169,885
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2035 $806,421
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2020 $610,899
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2055 $169,980
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2070 $47,081
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2065 $29,131
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2025 $15,360
    * Cash Cash $3,235
  • Funds in Morningstar’s 401(k)
    in case you were wondering how the 401k was currently allocated:
    Fund Value
    Vanguard Institutional Index $221,250,199
    Vanguard Developed Markets Index Instl $83,722,284
    Vanguard Total Bond Market Index $71,995,591
    Vanguard Small Cap Index Instl $70,044,449
    Personal Choice Retirement $67,962,323
    Harbor Capital Appreciation $44,636,465
    Primecap Odyssey Aggr Growth $36,342,335
    Vanguard FTSE Social Index $32,061,017
    Vanguard Emrg Mkts Index Adm $30,301,024
    Vanguard Selected Value $28,262,985
    Washington Mutual Fund R6 $27,567,856
    American Funds New World R6 $26,086,153
    Dodge & Cox International Stock $25,466,788
    Pimco Total Return Fund Cl A $24,645,158
    Oakmark Select Investor $21,042,844
    Vanguard Intl Growth Admiral $20,605,184
    PIMCO Real Return Fund Instl $20,450,560
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2040 $18,932,495
    T. Rowe Price Stable Value Com Trust A $18,533,530
    Vanguard Real Estate Inx Instl $17,500,289
    Dodge & Cox Global Bond Fund $17,214,377
    Royce Special Equity Svc $13,314,096
    PIMCO Commodity Real Ret Instl $11,423,605
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2050 $11,124,375
    Vanguard Fed Money Market Fund $9,010,788
    T Rowe Price High Yield $7,981,306
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2060 $7,417,153
    Loomis Sayles Bond Fund $7,338,851
    Wasatch Small Cap Growth Fund $6,467,915
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2030 $5,930,256
    Invesco Developing Markets R5 $4,460,437
    DFA International Small Company $4,349,683
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2045 $1,642,105
    Vanguard Target Retmt Income $1,235,913
    Personal Choice Retirement 2 $1,169,885
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2035 $806,421
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2020 $610,899
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2055 $169,980
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2070 $47,081
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2065 $29,131
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2025 $15,360
    * Cash Cash $3,235
  • Funds in Morningstar’s 401(k)
    "Interesting though, in that while some financial advisors insist that no one
    should have more than a small number of funds, the M* 401k has quite a few."

    Morningstar's 401(k) lineup includes Vanguard's entire Target Retirement suite.
    Mr. Kinnel mentioned that the following funds are also available:
    American Funds Washington Mutual
    Dodge & Cox International Stock
    Harbor Capital Appreciation
    Oakmark Select
    Vanguard Developed Markets Index
    Vanguard FTSE Social Index
    Vanguard Institutional Index
    Vanguard International Growth
    DFA International Small Company
    Primecap Odyssey Aggressive Growth
    Royce Small-Cap Special Equity
    Vanguard Selected Value
    Vanguard Small-Cap Index
    Wasatch Small Cap Growth
    American Funds New World
    Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index
    Invesco Developing Markets
    Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index
    Pimco Commodity Real Return Strategy
    Vanguard Real Estate Index
    Dodge & Cox Global Bond
    Pimco Total Return
    T. Rowe Price High Yield
    Loomis Sayles Bond
    Vanguard Total Bond Market Index
    It does seem that some funds could be removed to streamline the lineup without adverse affects.
    Here are a few quick examples off the top of my head.
    Remove either Vanguard FTSE Social Index or Vanguard Institutional Index since both funds are similar.
    American Funds New World is not a pure-play EM fund — some of its developed market holdings
    will also be found in the three large-cap international funds available. Remove it.
    REITs have provided scant diversification for U.S. equities since the turn of the century.
    Vanguard Real Estate Index is therefore of limited use and can be removed.