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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    a comment and a question....
    Not sure if it was Pfau who stated this...but there's a concept that the riskiest time for investors are 5 to 7 years prior to retirement and 5 to 7 years after retirement...the ole' sequence of return risk...so thinking is to be extremely "safe" positioned in your portfolio during those times...as you can really get dinged with your funds at the worst possible time with no time for portfolio to recover
    Also, curious if any of the class annuitized any of their portfolio going into retirement? and please also indicate if you are comfortable doing so if you have a gov't or other pension (reason being is that I consider a govt pension a better than equivalent of an annuity) I also do believe that Pfau has mentioned annuitizing part of one's portfolio going into retirement.
    btw..never saw the movie Pulp F...only have seen snippets and always had no idea what if was about or what was going on, LOL!
    Best Regards,
    Baseball Fan
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    hank
    Portfolio risk late in retirement? It’s a personal matter, I think, based more on temperament than anything else. If you still don’t have “enough” to survive on for the rest of your life when you reach 75 - 85 may God help you
    Unfortunately, most/many retirees are in that situation.
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    What is a "What The F--k" portfolio? All caution to the wind?
    I’ve researched it Mike. It’s military lingo: ”Whiskey Tango Foxtrot”
    Portfolio risk late in retirement? It’s a personal matter, I think, based more on temperament than anything else. If you still don’t have “enough” to survive on for the rest of your life when you reach 75 - 85 may God help you. It’s unlikely any particular allocation model is going to make much difference at that point. WTF.
    Notwithstanding the above, the referenced study (in the OP) doesn’t deal specifically with appropriate equity / risk exposure per age. It simply asserts that an all stock portfolio (50% domestic / 50% foreign) will outperform a “balanced” (60/40) portfolio over just about any relevant time span.
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    After I read many of these papers, I liked the idea of FLEXIBILITY which is what I have been practicing during the accumulation phase.
    It also depends on how big is your portfolio.
    - If you don't have enough, you don't have a choice but to own a high % of stocks for longevity.
    - If you have WTF portfolio=enough, you can be at 20/80 to 80/20
    - The biggest problem is in the middle. How to split between stock to bonds? 35-65% in stocks/bonds makes sense. Another good idea is "a rising equity glide path". You start with 35-40% in stocks and increase by 1% until you get to your sleep-well %.
    In my case: since 2018=retirement, I have used at least 90% bonds + flexibility=trading.
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    @sma, Wade Pfau has done several recent studies on retirement withdrawals. Basically, he has looked at various ways to modify/improve Bengen's 4% w/COLA Rule. He was a Professor at the American College of Financial Services, so he is not pushing any one idea, but has analyzed various possible variations.
    https://risaprofile.com/about-us/
    https://retirementresearcher.com/about/wade-pfau-bio/
    https://www.amazon.com/Retirement-Planning-Guidebook-Navigating-Important/dp/194564009X
    One of the ideas he has mentioned is "rising equity glide-path" (not sure who first came up with the idea). So, one starts with lower equity exposure around retirement to account for high SOR risks, and then increases equity exposure gradually as retirement progresses. These increases are not dramatic.
    "What’s the solution?
    There are four ways to manage the sequence-of-return risk. One, spend conservatively. Two, spend flexibly. If you can reduce your spending after a market downturn, that can manage sequence-of-return risk because you don’t have to sell as many shares to meet the spending need. A third option is to be strategic about volatility in your portfolio, even using the idea of a rising equity glide path. The fourth option is using buffer assets like cash, a reverse mortgage or whole life policy with cash value.
    What is a rising equity glide path?
    Start with a lower stock allocation at the beginning of retirement, and then work your way up. Later in retirement, market volatility doesn’t have as much impact on the sustainability of your spending path, and you can adjust by having a higher stock allocation later on. "
    Subscription Link https://www.barrons.com/articles/retirement-4-percent-rule-downturn-strategy-51642806039
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    ”I stumbled across the idea that you start retirement with a low equity allocation and increase it as you age ten or so years ago, although I forgot the source.”
    @sma3 - I looked for that same idea online and couldn’t find it either. I’ll hasten to add, however, that from my vantage point it’s not quite as clear-cut or simple as it might sound, So much depends on the price at which one buys in - as much as I profess to loath market timing.
    You are correct that those of us with pensions + SS may be able to assume more investment risk. While my 48% equity allocation (per Fido’s Analysis tool) is probably the highest ever during the retirement years (with the exception of late ‘08 / early ‘09), it is being accomplished with the assistance of a 30% allocation to L/S & hedged equity types of funds having relatively high ERs. That’s less than ideal, but does afford a respectful allocation to equities per age. Am always looking for ways to cut down expenses w/o ramping up the risk profile. A 10% allocation to individual stocks is part of the solution, but by no means the entire answer.
    Thanks @bee for your earlier submissions to the thread,
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    @hank
    I stumbled across the idea that you start retirement with a low equity allocation and increase it as you age ten or so years ago, although I forgot the source. It avoids loosing 45% of your assets in a massive bear market just as you retire.
    Of course this requires you to have enough income from SS a pension etc to survive early years without being forced to withdraw capital to live on.
    I felt like a genius when I retired equity light in 2019, as the Covid Bear market hit. The problem now is to decide how soon and how much to increase my equity exposure. I have a much better feeling for our expenses and SS income now than I did in 2019, but domestic equities seem rather overpriced now.
    A lot of people unfortunately have to take out a substantial % of their retirement account to survive.
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    @yogibb said,
    Well, tables were turned soon on Ramsey as many on Twitter showed that with Ramsey's advice, anyone who started in 01/2000 would have already run out of money by now, forget about 30-40 years. So, fool was Ramsey. He didn't offer a rebuttal.
    Decumulation is very different and less forgiving than accumulation.
    I concur. Time is NOT on your side in retirement for recovery. Math is against you t that point.
    December article from our MFO contributor, @Lynn Bolin shares his retirement asset allocation, and his reasoning (and metrics).
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/2023/12/searching-for-inflection-points/
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    +1 Thank you @Roy / Excellent link.
    On occasion I listened to Ramsey 20+ years ago when he was on late night AM. Sounded much more rational than. From that included clip, it sounds like he’s been attending the ”Rush Limbaugh School of Public Address”. Make what you will of his math.
    FWIW - About 15 years ago (possibly more) there was a thread (maybe on F/A?) discussing a published theory that retirees should start out conservatively positioned and become more aggressive as they age. Sounded ridiculous to me at the time. But 25+ years into retirement I can at least understand the logic. Early on you’re most concerned about outliving your assets. If you’re fortunate enough, later on that becomes a less important concern and you might be inclined to put a little more risk “on the table” in pursuit of greater reward.
    As always: No 1 size fits all.
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    @yogibearbull
    That's what concerns me for a good friend who is 50 years old (married) and has a retirement portfolio of a million already. He hopes to retire at 52 and is planning to be 100% invested in the SP500 until death. He scoffs at the 4% rule as being far too conservative, though I don't know what his starting withdrawal rate plan is. He has floated the idea of meeting with a financial planner to vet his plan.
    Here is a link for an article from M* columnist John Reckenthaler on the viability of an all-stock portfolio and high real withdrawal rate in retirement.
    https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/can-you-safely-spend-more-early-retirement
  • New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)
    We humans struggle with the “buy & hold” investing adage.
    JP Morgan confirms your researcher’s finding:
    Finally, we continue to believe stocks are the drivers of long-term capital appreciation. Bonds certainly have a greater role to play in portfolios today, but we are also reminded that stocks have outperformed bonds 85% of the time on a rolling 10-year basis since 1950.
    I do believe holding a small percentage of less volatility (cash, bonds) during the withdrawal phase helps a retiree “withdrawal cash/bonds and hold a higher percentage of equities” in retirement.
    Sited article:
    https://jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/market-outlook/five-considerations-for-investors-in-2024
  • High yield long term CDs
    @Jan:
    Disclaimer: You likely gave your advisor the detail of your current investments and your projected income gap upon retirement, along with risk profile information. That is all needed for anyone here or elsewhere to provide quality advice.
    Without all that, here's what I'd offer you as suggestions/ideas:
    Know that predicting the future of interest rates, their rates and the magnitude of their moves, is a fool's game.
    Only BUY brokerage CDs IF you reasonably KNOW you will NOT need the proceeds before their respective maturity dates. Selling them as Secondary Issues will cost you dearly at this point in time (and likely for months/years to come), IF you can be lucky enough to find a BUYer.
    Only BUY CP CDs to eliminate the guessing game on your holdings and risk of them being Called before their normal Maturity Date.
    Know that 3-month-to-1-yr rates are holding up the best, and LT rates (out to 5-10 years) are taking weekly, if not daily hits. Consider that trend is likely-to-very likely to continue, which should cause you to consider building the far end of the ladder as soon as possible.
    The "do now" stuff appears fine but I would make any current the BUYs on the farthest ends of your ladder.
    I'd not bother with trying to define any specific BUYs in Feb and Mar '24, or even Jan '24. (See my first comment about predicting the future interest rates.) We can guess what's gonna be available then, but we have no certainty those guesses will be anywhere near accurate. You can have a general plan for future dates, but leave the specifics TBD by your research in the week-to-two weeks leading up to getting those proceeds.
    I have no idea why he recommended the last item related to CDs in your taxable a/c best serving you IF at 2-yr intervals. I have no CDs in taxable a/c's. If I did, I would want them to be the ones at the shorter end of my ladder for the very reason he gave, to "give you added financial flexibility in retirement." 2-year CDs does NOT give you the flexibility (not the interest rates!) that 6-month, 1-yr and 18-month CDs would.
  • High yield long term CDs
    Admitting that I have a lack of knowledge, I decided to hire an advisor who was recommended to me by a couple of friends who have used him for many years. I pay him by the hour and he is charging me 3 hours which I feel is reasonable.
    I am 71 and will retire in 6 months to one years time so this isn't a retirement advice. I am very conservative with money. My objective is to generate as much as income as possible form the interest .I have a decent amount of social security in addition to this as I have worked for 50 plus years and didn't claim SS until I was 70.
    My question: I think it would be good to lock in 5 or even 10 year CD's rates as they are north of 4% and that would yield a decent amount of returns. I am concerned if I use CD ladders, the rates which are going to fall sooner than later might end up losing me money in the end.
    I will meet with him soon and he will answer any questions/concerns I have. I would greatly appreciate your opinion and or advice as this would enable me to ask him questions.
    His comments:
    Goal:
    To move cash to longer maturity CDs/Treasuries to take advantage of relatively high interest rates over a longer period of time.
    Things that can be done now:
    In your Company 401k Brokerage link:
    Buy a $100k 2-year CD. (Non-callable)
    Buy a $90k 3-year CD. (non-callable)
    Buy a ~$87k 4-year CD. (non-callable)
    In Feb ’24 when the Bank CD in the IRA matures:
    Invest 100k in a 1-year CD.
    Invest $100k in an 5 year CD.
    Leave ~$17k in cash.
    In March ’24 when the CDs in the Bank taxable account mature:
    Buy a $70k 1-year CD.
    Buy a $70k 2-year CD. (no penalty)
    Other things to note:
    If we build this CD ladder, eventually you will get the average 5-year rate. When a 1-year CD matures, you can buy a 5-yearCD. There should be at least one CD maturing every 12 months.
    I have intentionally left cash in the IRA and “non-CD” funds in the 401k. This because at some stage you will have RMDs and we don’t want the CD ladder to interfere with taking them.
    I think the taxable CDs should be in 24-month intervals. This will give you added financial flexibility in retirement.
  • Fidelity Conservative Income FCNVX - small tweaks to risks
    While tweaking is under discussion, M* notes that TRP’s TRRIX has been “on the tweek” so to speak.
    ”The team (that manages TRRIX) has made several changes to the underlying holdings over the past several years, adding both T. Rowe Price Hedged Equity PHEFX and T. Rowe Price Dynamic Credit RPELX to the portfolio in 2023. Both strategies add an element of volatility hedging and dynamic risk adjustment to their respective asset classes. Although hedging won’t necessarily improve the portfolio’s average risk-adjusted return, the hedges may cushion losses and reduce the maximum drawdown during bear markets, in exchange for reducing the potential upside.”( Excerpted from Morningstar)
    @msf has referenced a Fidelity income fund. While TRRIX now calls itself a “balanced (40/60) fund” that was not always the case. At inception about 20-25 years ago it eas actually called the: “T. Rowe Price Retirement Income Fund”.
    TRRIX suffered double digit losses in 2022. That’s a lot for this fund. Glad TRP is tweaking. Perhaps they should have been quicker on the stick. YTD the fund is up +7.8%. That’s still a long way from making up for last year’s loss.
  • "Green Investors Have New Room to Grow"
    Matt Levine's email posts (I receive almost daily) are quite wordy, but very informative.
    In my opinion, it's unfortunate that we have to monetize "Going Green". It appears it will end badly.
    Here's his take on Carbon credits (I took the liberty to copy paste):
    Carbon credits
    If you live on some land, and it turns out there is oil under the land, then either you get to drill the oil and sell it and keep the money, or the government does, or someone else does. There are various legal regimes. Perhaps you get to lease the oil rights to an oil company and keep some of the money. Perhaps you get nothing; perhaps the government owns all the oil in your country and can cut its own deals with the oil companies without giving you anything. All sorts of possibilities. But in any case, either you get the money from the oil, or someone else does, or you split it somehow. Or, of course, the oil is not discovered, or not exploited, and nobody gets the money.
    Similarly, if you live on some land, and it has trees, and you don’t cut down the trees, then the trees store carbon that might otherwise go into the atmosphere, and therefore they reduce global warming. And in the modern economy, those trees — or, rather, the fact of not cutting down the trees — can be turned into carbon credits; some big company will pay money for those credits to offset its own emissions. But who gets to sell the carbon credits and keep the money? Again, the possibilities include (1) you, as the person living on the land, (2) the government, or (3) someone else. Perhaps you can cut a deal with a carbon-credit company to preserve the trees, generate the credits and split the money. Perhaps the government owns all the not-cutting-down-trees in your country and can cut its own deals with global markets without giving you anything. All sorts of possibilities.
    In a rigorous accounting regime, either you would get the money, or someone else would, or you’d split it, but unlike with oil, the laws of physics do not really dictate a rigorous accounting regime. If you sell oil to someone, you can’t sell it to someone else. If you sell not-cutting-down-trees to someone, nothing in nature prevents you (or someone else!) from also selling not-cutting-down those same trees to someone else, though well constructed carbon credit regimes do. This week the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed some guidance on voluntary carbon credit regimes, emphasizing the importance of “no double counting,” that is, “that the [voluntary carbon credits] representing the credited emission reductions or removals are issued to only one registry and cannot be used after retirement or cancelation.”
    Also, of course, nobody might get the money from the carbon credits — the carbon credits might not be produced and sold — but this is also a bit different from the case of oil. To drill up oil, you have to (1) know it is there (under the ground) and (2) spend money on drilling, storage, transportation, etc. Not cutting down trees is, as a matter of physical reality, much simpler than drilling up oil:
    The trees are above ground (they are trees), so you can see them, so you know they are there.
    Not cutting them down is easy and free: Cutting down trees takes intentional effort, so you can just not do that. [1]
    That oversimplifies, though. For one thing, there is some opportunity cost of not cutting down the trees. (You can’t use them for firewood, building materials, etc.) For another thing, there is some cost of certifying and marketing the carbon credits. Also, though, a rigorous carbon credit regime doesn’t give you credit just for not cutting down any old trees; it gives you credit only for cutting down trees that otherwise would have been cut down. So if you live near a forest and enjoy the views and leave the trees alone, and then you try to sell carbon credits, the carbon credit buyers will say “no those trees are fine anyway.” The CFTC guidance also emphasizes the importance of “additionality,” that is, “whether the [voluntary carbon credits] are credited only for projects or activities that result in [greenhouse gas] emission reductions or removals that would not have been developed or implemented in the absence of the added monetary incentive created by the revenue from the sale of carbon credits.”
    And so if you just live on some land, and it has some trees, and you leave those trees alone and have for generations, you might have a hard time making money from the carbon credit market. Whereas if you live on some land, and it has some trees, and you sometimes chop down those trees for firewood and building materials, and have for generations, the efficient carbon credit market approach might be for your government to bring in someone else — some outside carbon credit company — to manage the trees and protect them from you, generating carbon credits. And then the outside company and the government split the money. Maybe they give you some of it, to compensate you for your loss of use of the trees.
    Here’s a Financial Times story about “ the looming land grab in Africa for carbon credits”:
    One day in late October, leaders from more than a dozen towns across Liberia’s Gbi-Doru rainforest crammed into a whitewashed, tin-roofed church.
    They had gathered to hear for the first time about a deal signed by their national government proposing to give Blue Carbon, a private investment vehicle based thousands of miles away in Dubai, exclusive rights to develop carbon credits on land they claim as theirs.
    “None of them were aware of the Blue Carbon deal,” says Andrew Zeleman, who helps lead Liberia’s unions of foresters. ...
    Blue Carbon, a private company whose founder and chair Sheikh Ahmed Dalmook al-Maktoum is a member of Dubai’s royal family, is in discussions to acquire management rights to millions of hectares of land in Africa. The scale is enormous: the negotiations involve potential deals for about a tenth of Liberia’s land mass, a fifth of Zimbabwe’s, and swaths of Kenya, Zambia and Tanzania.
    Blue Carbon’s intention is to sell the emission reductions linked to forest conservation in these regions as carbon credits, under an unfinished international accounting framework for carbon markets being designed by the UN. In a market that is being designed for and by governments, it is among the most active private brokers. …
    A copy of Blue Carbon’s memorandum of understanding with Liberia, dated July and seen by the Financial Times, proposed to give the Dubai-based company exclusive rights to generate and sell carbon credits on about 1mn hectares of Liberian land. It would receive 70 per cent of the value of the credits for the next three decades, and sell these tax-free for a decade. The government would receive the other 30 per cent, with some of this going to local communities.
    The central conceptual oddity of carbon credits is:
    You can get paid for not cutting down trees, and
    If a tree is not cut down then everyone on Earth did not cut it down, but
    Only one of them gets the carbon credit.
    If a tree in Liberia is not cut down, then it is technically true that a Dubai company didn’t cut it down, but it is also true that I didn’t cut it down, and it is arguably even more true that the Liberian person who lives next to the tree did not cut it down. But the Dubai company has some advantages in terms of getting paid.
  • BNY Mellon International Equity Income Fund to be liquidated (investor and M classes)
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1111565/000111156523000071/prosaistkr.htm
    497 1 prosaistkr.htm SUPPLEMENT TO PROSPECTUS AND SAI
    December 6, 2023
    BNY MELLON FUNDS TRUST
    -BNY Mellon International Equity Income Fund
    Supplement to Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
    The Board of Trustees of BNY Mellon Funds Trust (the "Trust") has approved the liquidation of BNY Mellon International Equity Income Fund (the "Fund"), a series of the Trust, effective on or about February 9, 2024 (the "Liquidation Date"). Before the Liquidation Date, and at the discretion of Fund management, the Fund's portfolio securities will be sold and the Fund may cease to pursue its investment objective and policies. The liquidation of the Fund may result in one or more taxable events for shareholders subject to federal income tax.
    Accordingly, effective on or about January 8, 2024 (the "Closing Date"), the Fund will be closed to any investments for new accounts, except that new accounts may be established by participants in group retirement plans (and their successor plans), provided the plan sponsor has been approved by BNY Mellon Investment Adviser, Inc. ("BNYM Adviser") in the case of BNYM Adviser-sponsored retirement plans, or BNY Mellon Wealth Management ("BNYM WM"), in the case of BNYM WM-sponsored retirement plans, and has established the Fund as an investment option in the plan before the Closing Date. The Fund will continue to accept subsequent investments until the Liquidation Date, except that subsequent investments made by check or pursuant to TeleTransfer or Automatic Asset Builder no longer will be accepted after January 30, 2024. However, subsequent investments made by BNYM WM-sponsored Individual Retirement Accounts ("IRAs") and BNYM WM-sponsored retirement plans (together, "BNYM WM Retirement Plans") and BNYM Adviser-sponsored IRAs and BNYM Adviser-sponsored retirement plans (together, "BNYM Adviser Retirement Plans"), if any, pursuant to TeleTransfer or Automatic Asset Builder (but not by check) will be accepted after January 30, 2024.
    Shares held by shareholders who elect to redeem their Fund shares prior to the Liquidation Date will be redeemed in the ordinary course at the applicable net asset value per share. Fund shareholders may exchange their shares for shares of certain other funds comprising the Trust at any time before the Fund ceases operations. Except as described below for certain retirement plans, each shareholder who remains in the Fund until the Liquidation Date will receive a liquidation distribution equal to the aggregate net asset value of the shares of the Fund that such shareholder then holds. Fund shareholders are encouraged to consider options that may be suitable for the reinvestment of liquidation proceeds, including exchanging into another fund comprising the Trust.
    Fund shares held on the Liquidation Date in BNYM WM Retirement Plans will be reallocated to other previously approved investment vehicles designated in plan documents as determined by BNYM WM and/or a client's trustee or other fiduciary, where required, within BNYM WM's investment discretion should the consent of a client's third-party fiduciary not be obtained prior to the Liquidation Date. Fund shares held on the Liquidation Date in BNYM Adviser Retirement Plans will be exchanged for Wealth shares of Dreyfus Government Cash Management ("DGCM"). Investors may obtain a copy of the Prospectus of DGCM by calling 1-800-373-9387.
    6309STK1223
  • T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation & Income is live
    Professor Snowball wrote an article about PRCFX in the December MFO issue.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2023/12/launch-alert-t-rowe-price-capital-appreciation-income-fund/
    A minor nitpick ... Prof. Snowball writes that PRWCX is " (b) closed tight." Elsewhere (in discussing closed funds) he has noted that there are ways to get into some of these funds. Specifically, that T. Rowe Price Summit Select investors (those with over $250K at TRP) have access to PRWCX. And existing investors can add to their accounts.
    In contrast, TREMX is closed really tight.
    The fund is currently closed to all purchases from new and existing shareholders. Even investors who already hold shares of the fund either directly with T. Rowe Price or through a retirement plan or financial intermediary may no longer purchase additional shares.
    Prospectus
    Now that's what I call a hard close. Weird timing, too.
    Had it closed in early 2022 around the time the Ukraine war began and it lost 86% of its value in three weeks, that might have made sense. Closing it a year later, and so severely, doesn't. No significant in/outflows since mid 2022.
    Closure announcement, Feb 17, 2023.
  • T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation & Income is live
    Placed orders to establish initial positions in the fund in a number of our accounts we hold directly with TRP.
    I may end up using PRCFX and TRAIX/PRWCX in a similar way that others use Vanguard Wellington and Wellesley to maintain a more conservative allocation than TRAIX/PRWCX normally maintains as we get closer to retirement. This way I wouldn't need to be concerned with choosing fixed income investments to lower our equity allocation.
  • Most Americans are better off financially now than before the pandemic
    At what moment? He never said that there would be an imminent collapse, which is what I wrote would have IMHO a hack prediction. Even then, just a hack prediction, not necessarily the writing of a hack. What he demonstrated was that admissions of error are difficult to make; that's not bias.
    Hacks often start with preconceived notions, cherry pick data, and disregard what that data represents or even the data itself. There's a difference between a well reasoned position piece and a hack writing.
    There's an old saying that a house is not a home. The Fed presents data on its Home Ownership Affordability Monitor. It includes "all single-family attached and detached properties combined" (quote is from the Fed site). Nowhere does the Fed use the word "house".
    No time frame appears in the quote above for the 30% figure. But since a second source (Bloomberg) is offered, and that source uses time frames including Jan 2020 - Oct 2023 and Q1 2020 - Q3 2023, we can work with that.
    The Fed site actually says that median existing home repeat sale prices rose from $264.00K in Jan 2020 to $374.167K in Sept 2023 (a 41.7% increase). This isn't close to 30%. The point here is not whether the actual number is greater or less than 30%. Rather it is that giving "supporting" sources that actually conflict with one's asserted numbers is something hacks do.
    ---------
    It was suggested that the ones hurt by this 30% increase in prices (presumably since Jan 2020) are largely first-time house (sigh) buyers. Instead of relying on shock value (another hack ploy) and disregarding counterbalancing income increases, let's compare the increases in costs and income.
    "The typical age of a first-time homebuyer is 33 years old"
    https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/first-time-homebuyer-statistics/
    Average wages rise (inflation, productivity, etc.). We've already seen that the increase in wages over this period is around 20%. So a typical individual worker aged 33 received a nominal wage 20% higher in 2023 than a typical individual worker aged 33 back in 2020. (We can use age-specific percentage increases instead if you have them.)
    Now, independent of market wage increases (the 20%), individual workers' wages increase as they age - due to promotions, due to more experienced workers receiving higher wages generally. (Though above age 60, wages often decline with age.)
    Let's take this step by step, starting with a typical wage earner, age 30 in 2020. That worker earned about $40,540. We know this because when we increase by 20% (the national average increase in wages since 2020), we get a typical wage of $48,650. That happens to be the typical wage earned by a 30 year old in 2023.
    https://dqydj.com/average-median-top-income-by-age-percentiles/
    Since 2020 this typical worker has aged three years and is now receiving the wages of a typical 33 year old: $52,650. So in nominal terms this worker's wages have increased about 29.9%, the same as housing costs have increased.
    IOW, despite the increase in existing housing costs, this typical worker is no worse off than he was three years ago with respect to housing.
    The age factor is something often missed in analyses. It's true that a 33 year old today is less likely to afford a home than a 33 year old three years ago. Hence statistics like the Home Opportunity Affordability Monitor show a declining rate of affordability.
    But at the level of the individual, the situation is better. As people age, they are supposed to be able to afford more. Right now, they can't afford more housing than they could three years ago, but neither are they stuck affording less.
    As a nation, housing costs have risen bigly. That takes some of the bloom off "the American dream". But at the individual level, people are better off with respect to some purchases and not worse off with respect to first time home buying.
    Old age is a different story. To the extent that people rely on savings (as opposed to inflation-adjusted Social Security), rising housing costs (including rent, property taxes, maintenance, etc.) are not a pretty sight. And not just recently. It's a mistake to assume that people who own their homes are in good shape.
    As the largest expenditure in most older households’ budgets, housing costs figure heavily into financial security in older age. Incomes decline in older age, and not just at the point of retirement: while the 2017 median income of pre-retirement households ages 50 to 64 was $71,400, it was $46,500 for households ages 65 to 79 and just $29,000 for households ages 80 and older, according to analysis of data from the American Community Survey; and author tabulations. While these numbers show a pattern across all older households, individual households frequently see declines in incomes as they age [the opposite of what happens with first-time buyers]. As a result, affordability concerns can emerge as a new problem even for those in their 80s and older.
    https://generations.asaging.org/older-adults-aging-place-affordable-safe