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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • New formula for evaluating funds? The PEP Ratio.
    The problem with VALUATION is the fact that:
    1) It can't predict the next 3-6-12 months
    2) It can't predict market correction and which index/category will go down more.
    3) Once upon a time PE10(CAPE) looked like a decent indicator until it failed miserably.
    Prof Shiller created PE10 which is supposed to predict performance based on valuation better than PE
    On 05/2012 (https://money.cnn.com/2012/04/10/pf/investing-Shiller.moneymag/index.htm)
    Question: You have become famous for your cyclically adjusted 10-year price/earnings ratio. What do the latest numbers say about future stock market returns?
    Shiller: we found a correlation between that ratio and the next 10 years' return.
    If you plug in today's P/E of about 22, it would be predicting something like an annualized 4% return after inflation.
    FD: In reality, the SP500 made 13.6% in the next 10 years (04/31/2012-04/31/2022). Let's deduct the inflation and make it 11%. It is much better than countries with lower PE10 such as Emerging markets.
    4) If valuation or another indicator has been how you make more money, we would have a lot more investors such as Buffett and Lynch. Times have changed too...article quote:"It’s harder to find overlooked stocks than it was in Lynch’s day because more people are looking for them — anyone with a smartphone has free access to extensive markets and financial information. The result of greater competition is evident in the numbers: Fast-growing or highly profitable companies are almost always the most expensive while the cheapest ones come with lackluster growth or thin profits."
  • MOVEit Data Transfer Breach
    @Anna
    Hook 'em Horns!!!
    I graduated UT in 73, then left Texas after being born and raised there
    I don't recognize the place now! Austin is a nightmare
    Pretty much the same story here; graduated 1971, took off for the West afterwards. I look back on Austin then as an idyllic place to have lived as an undergrad.
    A friend, burned out of her home between L.A. and S.B. in one of the CA wildfires, escaped with only the cat and a small pack, moved to Austin ~ 2019 to be close to relatives. When I've told her what Austintatious was like when I lived there, she hardly believes me. (Onward through the fog!)
  • Treasury FRNs
    I didn't mention CDs in this thread. They're not for trading. Either you were responding to someone else or brought them up yourself.
    If Schwab mentioned CD early withdrawal penalties, I'm a little surprised. Generally (though not always) brokered CDs cannot be redeemed early except upon death. They can (maybe) be sold through a brokerage, but with a large spread. To be used as an escape clause (emergencies) and not as part of a routine strategy.
    If you're going to buy $1M in CDs, you might use several institutions. That would depend, first, on how sanguine you were about an institution's solvency. FDIC insurance might not be of major concern. While I don't recommend that approach, I have gone over FDIC limits on rare occasions, though either for very short periods of time or with only slight excesses.
    Second, you and your spouse (referencing your tax return above) can get $1M of FDIC insurance via two individual $250K accounts and a joint $500K account at a single institution.
    https://edie.fdic.gov/calculator.html
    Third, many banks participate in IntraFi's CDARS program, giving you access to millions of dollars of FDIC insurance for CDs via a single institution.
    Finally, with short term T-bills currently yielding more than CDs of similar maturity, with their state tax exemption, and with their ease of selling (whether of necessity or by a trader), I agree that for savers and traders alike this is an easy call.
  • Fidelity account holders, FidSafe, free data/documents storage
    Interesting. Afraid I use icloud storage for a lot of stuff. But for really critical passwords, they’re not recorded anywhere except in my head. I’ll jot down written “clues” to help me remember. If the PWs / clues reference a theatrical performance or favorite landscape photo in some manner, they are easy for me to decipher.
    As I’ve noted before, my ipad’s DejaOffice files appeared to have been broken into couple years ago. A subsequent purchase of Norton Anti-virus helped stop that type of occurrence. I don’t store those in the Deja provided DropBox cloud. But they are uploaded to Apple’s icloud along with everything else.
    Good stuff. Thanks for all the suggestions. Some very thorough thoughtful folks here.
  • CD Rates Going Forward
    We bought a retirement home on Cape Cod in a spur of the moment decision, but we were smart enough to buy one less than 20 years old, built by a guy who over engineered everything ( It was his fifth personal build). BR on first floor, etc. IF we took more time we might have gotten something with a view etc, but we love the quiet neighborhood and new friends.
    We passed on new dog, because my daughter moved here too and has two lovely dogs we use to get dog fix every several days. As we helped her buy her house, she frequently acknowledges that she will help us when we can't drive etc. Not including travel expenses, our income needs so far have been met with SS and dividends, even in high tax Massachusetts ( realestate taxes up 30% since 2018)
    I became convinced that going into retirement is not the best time to have large equity exposure, given risk of serious bear market, so in 2015 to 2018 I cut stocks back and now am around 30%. The fact that rates shot up has made that decision easier obviously.
    I think there is more downside ahead than upside, at least for US market and I don't mind making 5 to 6% rather than 20% if it means avoiding a 40 % loss in capital.
    This sorta makes up for the fact that in CT for the last 30 years our house lost us lots of money, my salary was stagnant and we were taxed to the max.
    But you can't focus on the past, and we are grateful we are both healthy, our kids are generally happy and educated and employed, although one is 1200 miles away.
  • Good Bye M* Legacy Portfolio Manager
    Loving both Firefox & Brave which are knocking down attempts by Google & Facebook to track me. Dumb question … But how do these ”good guys” make money? I’ll assume there must be a business model - or are they supported fully by donation?
    Firefox gets hundreds of millions from Google to be defaulted as their search engine, plus they have some other funding sources/subscription services. Firefox is also part of the nonprofit Mozilla Foundation which attracts $$$$ from big players in the internet/software space. (But Firefox isn't w/o fault in sometimes going too far in deploying for-profit items like Pocket by default for users trying to eek a few more bucks ... but thankfully it's easy to turn that stuff off.) Firefox has been my default browser since Netscape in the mid-90s. (and my first-ever internet stock which I got at IPO and did quite nicely on, I might add)
    Brave does some crypto/ad-viewing stuff to help offset costs, but I haven't looked into their funding model much.
  • Anybody use any hedging or shorting?
    Unfortunately M* has been off for years about PIMIX. I downloaded the last PIMCO+Bond+Stats+2023+06.xlsx from Pimco.
    M* uses all the SEC filing information to present exposure by asset class. PIMCO mechanically sums market value figures, disregarding the effect of derivatives. Of course these figures don't match. One set informs investors about how the fund behaves (which is the theme running through this thead), the other is a pro forma summation.
    The significance of this distinction can be seen easily using DSENX as a model. This fund uses nearly all its cash to purchase bonds (100% fixed income exposure), and then for next to nothing buys derivative exposure to the CAPE index (100% equity exposure). Cash exposure is thus -100%. The prospectus explains this and M* shows the fund to have approximately these exposures.
    DSENX filings show that about 97% of the fund consists of fixed income, and 0% is equity. Those market value (MV) figures are accurate, just as the MV figures for PIMIX given in a post above are accurate. And they're all misleading.
    No one thinks of DSENX as a bond fund. Rather it is presented (rightly) as a CAPE index fund with a bond kicker (100% added fixed income exposure). While PIMCO funds are more inscrutable, they similarly use derivatives to achieve behaviors that are belied by simple market value summaries.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Derf: welcome aboard ARDBX. GP is history for me. I escaped before the banking stocks bit them in the #&@.
  • TCAF, an ETF Cousin of Closed Price PRWCX
    wow and huh
    Seems typical, yes, and yes about the platform. Prohibiting divo, ccor, cape, and now tcaf?? Seriously?
    the ML guy who helped me was better than enthusiastic, and when I called a few days ago about something else the notes to the xfer guy were right there in front of the second guy.
    Anent Fido, I was frankly more than surprised, possibly shocked, that they were as cavalier as they were, and cavalier may not be the right word. I foolishly did not consult them beforehand (xfer of perhaps $400k) and, when I did, promptly after, was told, Sorry etc. I harrumphed that I had been w Fido for 55y, they could check (true, more including adolescence) and some millions of dollars (meaning >1) over time, and the response was Sorry.
    I did get an invite to an in-person consult about planning and allocation and whatnot.
    There really seems an opp here for a rival to do it all, for boomers down to </=millennials, concierge-style or at least the appearance and vibe of same. Moderate promos and incentives, maybe 2-3% credit cards, prompt person pickup and service, competitive rates including margin, low or no fees on outside funds, etc.
  • TCAF, an ETF Cousin of Closed Price PRWCX
    >> Merrill has fixed that problem this morning.
    That 'trading of this security ...' etc. prohibition nonsense has been ML boilerplate for some time (recently), and has appeared for DIVO, CAPE, and CCOR as well as TCAF. DSENX is okay, though. I am thinking I have never seen trading prohibitions at Fido for anything.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?

    ...
    Dear stillers:
    1) Let me ask you an easy question. Why did you use 3 different names(stillers,Arriba, Albie) on different sites? Did you try to hide something?
    2) Why don't you try to register on BB as stillers? You have no chance with the moderator who knows you for years.
    BTW, the subject of this thread is bond, why not make comments on it?
    Ah, the classic FD/Red Party way: Deny Delay, Deflect.***
    (1) Ah, C'mom man! You've asked that questions several times and I've 'splained the answer to you, well, several times. Memory problems? Or just another example of the above***?
    Or, as Dan Rather once infamously stated, "No Mr (xxx), are you?"
    (2) The Moderator of that forum is a fellow Trumper of yours who has cut you unbelievable slack there since that forum started. Apparently you finally overstepped your bounds netting a 90-day ban, and now need to incessantly push your wares elsewhere for that stretch . (See just about every other forum you've ever participated on.)
    Aside, and "For kicks" as capecod used to say: Given my use of other names in the past, maybe I AM registered there and you just don't know it!
    (3) Well dummy, if you had read the whole thread, you'd have seen that I DID make comments about the OP topic long before you entered the thread post-BB ban.
  • Concerning SPY and concentration in top 5 holdings
    Anyone know if the concentration of holdings in a relative few companies is historically significant? I know the index is cap weighted but is todays concentration out of the ordinary? Thanks for your replies.
    Not responsive to your specific question, but I have spent a few hours the last few weeks comparing RSP vs IVV and IVE, also VONE vs VONV, also the gaming value outliers SCHD and DIVO and CAPE.
    While looking hard at UI.
    Even VONE all by itself has a breadth that (as you might think) counters the top-heavy IVV. Counters meaning underperforms.
    5-3-1y and 8mos. I use M* and Fido to do longer comparisons, as they exist.
    Anyway, if I were really smart I would be able to convey what the lessons are which I have learned. IVV or VONE in combo w low-UI DIVO looks like a winner. He said.
    (How's this for unhelpful?)
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    https://msn.com/en-us/money/companies/the-next-crisis-will-start-with-empty-office-buildings/ar-AA1ceEKg?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=606d641185224a20a6248989fb2c9e82&ei=10
    Post-pandemic, kids are back in school, retirees are back on cruise ships, and physical stores are doing better than expected. But offices are struggling perhaps more than most casual observers realize, and the consequences for landlords, banks, municipal governments, and even individual portfolios will be far-reaching. In some cases, they will be catastrophic. But this crisis, like all crises, also represents an opportunity to reconsider many of our assumptions about work and cities.
    During the first three months of 2023, U.S. office vacancy topped 20 percent for the first time in decades. In San Francisco, Dallas, and Houston, vacancy rates are as high as 25 percent. These figures understate the severity of the crisis because they only cover spaces that are no longer leased. Most office leases were signed before the pandemic and have yet to come up for renewal. Actual office use points to a further decrease in demand. Attendance in the 10 largest business districts is still below 50 percent of its pre-COVID level, as white-collar employees spend an estimated 28 percent of their workdays at home.
    With a third of all office leases expiring by 2026, we can expect higher vacancies, significantly lower rents, or both. And while we wrestle with the effects of distributed work, artificial intelligence could drive office demand even lower. Some pundits point out that the most expensive offices are still doing okay and that others could be saved by introducing new amenities and services. But landlords can’t very well lease all empty retail stores to Louis Vuitton and Apple. There’s simply not enough demand for such space, and new features make buildings even more expensive to build and operate.
    With such grim prospects, some landlords are threatening to “give the keys back to the bank.” Over the past few months, the property giants RXR, Columbia Property Trust, Brookfield Asset Management, and others have collectively defaulted on billions in commercial-property loans. Such defaults are partly an indication of real struggles and partly a game of chicken. Most commercial loans were issued before the pandemic, when offices were full and interest rates were low.
    The current landscape is drastically different: high vacancy rates, doubled interest rates, and nearly $1.5 trillion in loans due for repayment by 2025. By defaulting now, landlords leverage their remaining influence to advocate for loan extensions or a bailout. As John Maynard Keynes observed, when you owe your banker $1,000, you are at his mercy, but when you owe him $1 million, “the position is reversed.”
  • Alberta oilpatch disruptions: wildfires.
    That area is cold and densely forested. Global warming is changing the landscape for the worse and wildfires are now taken place in these locations. This is only May and El Niño weather pattern will bring hotter and drier weather.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    Professor Tribe makes a nice case for disregarding the debt ceiling, but he is not making the argument that the 1917 debt ceiling law is unconstitutional.
    As the Treasury writes:
    The authority to borrow on the full faith and credit of the United States is vested in the Congress by the Constitution. Article I, Section 8, Paragraph 2, states "[The Congress shall have power]…to borrow money on the credit of the United States." In 1917, Congress, pursuant to the Second Liberty Bond Act, delegated authority to the Treasury Department to borrow, subject to a limit. This action mitigated the need to seek congressional authority on each issuance, providing operational convenience. The debt limit essentially achieved its modern form in the early 1940s.
    If that delegation (subject to a debt ceiling) were unconstitutional, then all existent debt (i.e. all debt incurred since 1917) would be unconstitutional.
    In order for the debt to be legal, it would be necessary to void the debt ceiling portion of the law without voiding the law in its entirety. Splitting a law like this is possible only if the law is deemed severable. Severability depends upon intent and whether the remaining portion of a law can make sense absent the portion that is excised.
    Here, Congress ceded (delegated) some of its Article I authority to the executive branch, conditionally. The intent was to slacken the borrowing reins (for convenience, as noted above) without completely releasing the reins. IMHO that intent is thwarted by delegating borrowing authority absent constraints. It is not obvious that the debt ceiling could be severed from the statute. But as I indicated, that's not Tribe's argument.
    Rather, he is analogizing with Lincoln's suspension of habeas corpus, that under certain exigent circumstances parts of the Constitution may be disregarded. While I'm inclined to accept that argument, his reference to Lincoln may not be on point.
    The Constitution explicitly provides for the suspension of habeas corpus under certain conditions, as explained in the piece linked to from Tribe's column. The issue with Lincoln was not whether suspension of a law (habeas corpus, a law enshrined in the Constitution) was legal. Rather, the issue was who had the authority to exercise that escape clause - the executive branch, the legislative branch, or either.
    Tribe might have been more persuasive by quoting
    Justice Jackson's well-known words, the Constitution is not "a suicide pact." Terminiello v. Chicago, 337 U.S. 1, 37, 69 S.Ct. 894, 93 L.Ed. 1131 (1949) (dissenting opinion in a case involving the First Amendment). The Constitution itself takes account of public necessity. Ziglar v. Abbasi, 137 S. Ct. 1843, 1883, 198 L. Ed. 2d 290 (2017).
    https://www.americanbar.org/groups/senior_lawyers/publications/voice_of_experience/2022/july-2022/quarantine-masks-and-the-constitution/.
  • US banks are failing, and the authorities seem unlikely to intervene
    • Trading halted in shares of two more US lenders as fears of banking crisis mount
    • Regional lenders such as PacWest and Western Alliance are not seen as systemically important and more consolidation is ahead

    Following is a current report from The Guardian:
    Shares in two more US regional banks have been suspended. Regulators moved in to halt trading in Los Angeles-based PacWest and Arizona’s Western Alliance on Thursday after they became the latest victims of an escalating crisis that began with Silicon Valley Bank in March.
    The message from central banks and bank supervisors is that this is not a rerun of the global financial crisis of 2008. That may be true. With the exception of Switzerland’s Credit Suisse, European banks have escaped the turmoil. It is specific US banks that are the problem.
    There are a number of reasons for that: the business models of the banks concerned; failures of regulation; the large number of small and mid-sized banks in the US; and the rapid increase in interest rates from the country’s central bank, the Federal Reserve.
    Luis de Guindos, vice-president of the European Central Bank (ECB), remarked on Thursday that “the European banking industry has been clearly outperforming the American one”. Although he will be praying his words do not come back to haunt him, he is broadly right. European banks, including those in the UK, do look more secure than those in the US – primarily because they tend to be bigger and more tightly regulated.
    Despite being the 16th biggest bank in the US, Silicon Valley Bank was not considered systemically important and so was less stringently regulated than institutions viewed by federal regulators to be more pivotal. Many of its customers were not covered by deposit insurance and were heavily exposed to losses on US Treasury bonds as interest rates rose. The other banks that failed subsequently have tended to share many of the same characteristics: they were regionally based and are vulnerable to rising borrowing costs.
    Unless the Fed rides to the rescue with cuts in interest rates, the options are: amalgamation, regulation or more banks going bust. The response of the US authorities suggests little appetite for a laissez-faire approach.
    According to official data, the US has more than 4,000 banks – an average of 80 for each of the 50 states. The number has fallen by more than two-thirds since the peak of more than 14,000 in the early 1980s, but there is certainly room for greater consolidation. In an age of instant internet bank runs, customers will be attracted to the idea that big is beautiful.
    The US authorities certainly do not seem averse to further amalgamation. When First Republic ran into trouble, it was seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and its deposits and assets were sold to one of the giants of US banking – JP Morgan Chase. Inevitably, there will be more takeovers and fire sales of assets as alternatives to bank failures. It is reasonable to assume that in 10 years’ time the number of US banks will be considerably smaller than it is today.
    What’s more, the banks that remain – including those that are not taken over – are likely to be more tightly regulated and more closely supervised. Even if the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England are right and a repeat of the global financial crisis has been averted, lessons are already being learned.
  • The Debt Limit Drama Heats Up
    I would like to know how anyone can sense the possibility of a solution if you can’t find a half dozen rational house repugs to vote with the Dems.
    Political posturing and pontification about fiscal responsibility will prevail during this saga.
    If the U.S. defaulted on incurred debt, there would be significant repurcussions.
    A solution for this manufactured crisis will be reached because there is no alternative.
    I know this may not be very reassuring when considering the current political landscape...
  • John Templeton
    @Old_Joe - He was an investor, not a saint. But I agree with you that religion’s a funny thing. Templeton wore his religion well. Was it genuine? I believe so, but who knows? And the comments above about Bhopal haven’t escaped me. I suspect that today (50 years later) he might be scoffed at for being so overtly religious. Different periods and cultures.
    Among the giants that appeared often on Rukeyser’s show in the ‘70s & ‘80s were Templeton, Peter Lynch and Henry Kaufman. What Templeton lent was a belief / message that over long periods individual investors would be rewarded for saving and investing for the future. In the long run the country and mankind worldwide would prosper and investments in equities were a road to participation in that wealth - a way to raise the living standards of the masses. Of course, it hasn’t turned out that way for various sundry reasons. But that was the message, and I think he really believed it.
    Geez - Have another book about Templeton loaded into my Audible library. Generally fall asleep nights absorbing either finance or astro-physics, both of which I find intriguing. Have listened to Howard Marks a lot and to a nice biography on Buffett. I try to glean what wisdom I can from any source, even though I might loath some aspects of their lives.
    PS - Thanks for commenting.
  • John Templeton
    My first brokerage a/c in the 1970s was at Merrill Lynch and I was paying almost 6-7% commission per trade, 12-14% for a roundtrip. I had to call my assigned broker and he was hard to get hold of. As his office was on the way to work, I will just write a note on transactions, and dropped it off with his secretary. Then Schwab, Fido etc changed the investing landscape - first the touchtone phone trading (telebrokers - spell check doesn't even recognize it now; most brokers had a limit on "free" phone quotes"), then came the web-trading, and finally, the commission-free trading now. That was a long journey.
  • Precious metals are breaking out
    So much depends on your perspective. These types of investments aren’t intended for everyone. Think of gold as “a hedge against the unexpected.” Almost by definition, “the unexpected” is that which is very unlikely to occur (political chaos, hyperinflation, asteroid strike, nuclear war).
    @Jan is correct. Long term, gold shouldn’t perform as well as investments in solid growth companies. That said, precious metals tend to run to the extremes on both the up-side and down-side. As fertile ground for speculators they might be attractive if you have the stomach. If you are unable to find even a 3%-5% spot in your portfolio for that kind of hedge or speculative gambit, no problem. Life goes on.
    Yes, I agree, there are obstacles to owning / trading physical gold. I’d not want that hassle. But there are, as I’m sure you are aware, funds that invest in it in various ways. Just $50 on a grocery store visit? I rarely escape for under $150. A halfway decent bottle of single malt runs $40-50 alone.
    BTW - The OP was by @rono who has tracked the precious metals forever. Rono’s forgotten more about the metals than most of us ever knew. I tend to agree with his point of view. However, making such predictions about gold involves looking at the technical charts as well as trying to anticipate correctly things like geopolitics, inflation, Federal Reserve policies and how other asset classes that vie for assets will perform going forward. And, Oh I almost forgot …. the herd instincts and behavior of investors.