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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • PSTL. Postal Realty Trust
    I am reminded of my sister's son in law in Texas who objects paying taxes for AMYTHING!
    What about road maintenance? "I have a 4 wheel drive Tundra and can go off road"
    what about education? " My kids go to private schools. Why should I pay for anyone else's kids?"
    What about police protection? " I have enough guns at home to not need them"
    Of course he is a public University graduate, a stock broker with lots of middle class clients. I can't get an answer from him about where his clients will come from in the next decade or two, if we followed his demands.
    There are serious proposals to eliminate Medicare and Social Security. Who do the rich people think will be around to staff the nursing homes, their landscapers and the grocery stores?
  • Large unplanned LT cap. gain 2022. Should a 1040-ES be filed; to pay taxes now?
    Generally, with lots of exceptions, the IRS expects you to pay your taxes equally in each quarter. That should be pretty obvious, because otherwise everyone would skip their first three estimates and just pay everything on the last estimate.
    For estimated tax purposes, the year is divided into four payment periods. Each period has a specific payment due date. If you don’t pay enough tax by the due date of each of the payment periods, you may be charged a penalty even if you are due a refund when you file your income tax return.
    IRS Pub 505, When to Pay Estimated Taxes
    As Yogi wrote, withholdings are usually considered evenly applied. But if it advantageous to do so (e.g. if your withholdings are front loaded), "you may choose to include your withholding according to the actual dates on which the amounts will be withheld." Pub 505, instructions for Worksheet 2-7, line 31.
    However you choose to allocate withholdings, so long as you've paid in (estimates plus withholdings) of at least 1/4 of the total as of the first estimate deadline, 1/2 as of the 2nd estimate deadline, and 3/4 as of the third, the IRS doesn't care if these payments are even or not. However, if you back load the payments, the IRS does care. Unless your income was correspondingly back loaded.
    If your income was, say $15K in the first quarter, $15K in the second quarter, $15K in the third quarter, and (due to YE divs and cap gains) $45K in the last quarter, the IRS will allow you to pay in roughly half of your taxes in the last quarter.
    See Form 2210 for how the underpayment penalty is calculated, quarter by quarter. It has a Schedule AI (annualized income) where you can document how much income you received in each quarter. Based on those amounts, it adjusts how much you should have paid each quarter.
    This is not the easiest form to fill out and requires fairly detailed bookkeeping (e.g. how much interest did your bank pay you in April and May?). Like Ben, I am not a professional, but I have tried this at home more than a couple of times. I found it something to avoid unless one's income is very uneven.
    Still, it provides an escape in case you wind up with a lot of unexpected income in a quarter.
  • CAPD and CAPE Trading Symbols
    I sold DSEEX likely in 2018, after holding it for 5 yrs. After that I experimented with CAPE during which time I noticed that the published sector allocation of CAPE was somewhat (25%) different from that of DSEEX. DoubleLine had an explanation for the difference, as in the index followed was slightly different. Pl check if the sector allocations / index currently followed by the two is the same.
  • CAPD and CAPE Trading Symbols
    @davidmoran is doing fine.
    There are several discussion threads on CAPE and DE_SX dating back to the market collapse in March of 2020. More than one board member became disenchanted with the DoubleLine versions because the « special bond sauce » proved to exacerbate rather than protect against losses. These days, with the apparent surrender of the symbol CAPE, the strategy pursued by CAPD, the ETN, strikes me as a « purer » application of the Schiller theory, at least because it is an equity allocation, untainted by bond holdings. Were I to buy into the CAPE strategy again, it would certainly be via CAPD.
    I’m not sure who on MFO was first to buy DE_SX, but it could have been @davidmoran.
  • CAPD and CAPE Trading Symbols
    Any time I see a post about DSEEX or CAPE I think of poster @davidmoran, who from my memory was the first to bring attention to these funds years ago. I don't catch everything here, but I haven't seen David post lately. Hope all is ok.
  • CAPD and CAPE Trading Symbols
    Maybe, though recognize that correlation is not causation.
    DoubleLine has not especially impressed with its enhanced version of CAPE (DSEEX). It has generated negative "enhancement" relative to CAPD over the past five years (11.13% vs. 12.50%), three years (11.35% vs. 13.50%), and one year (-8.01% vs. -5.86%).
    No matter, they've both underperformed the S&P 500 over the past five years (13.09% return), three years (14.62%), one year (-1.23%). All figures from M*, through June 8th. At least through the last quarter (March 31st), CAPD has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past five, three, and one year periods, though DSEEX remains the worst of the three.
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=DSEEX
    (Add CAPD for performance comparisons)
    FWIW, M* reclassified DSEEX as large cap blend in 2019. Until then it had considered the fund to be a large cap value fund. In contrast, CAPD (formerly CAPE) maintains its classification as large cap value.
    https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/capd/performance
    DoubleLine could be taking a reputational risk as a bond house by starting a CAPE ETF that might outperform the bond-enhanced DSEEX, just as CAPD has outperformed DSEEX. Or perhaps not, since its CAPE ETF is not going to track the CAPE index (unlike the equity portion of DSEEX).
    The ETF's stated "objective is to seek total return which exceeds the total return of the S&P 500 index." (One might ask why then is it using the Schiller CAPE index as a reference, since that's underperformed the S&P 500 for years; but that's a separate question.)
    The ETF merely "considers the underlying constituents of the Shiller Barclays CAPE® US TR USD index ... Because the Fund is actively managed, the Adviser has the discretion to invest in securities not included in the index and may over or underweight a particular sector as it deems appropriate in seeking the Fund's investment objective."
    In short, "the Fund does not seek to track or replicate the Index."
    CAPE ETF Summary Prospectus
  • CAPD and CAPE Trading Symbols
    It appears that DoubleLine, which manages the CAPE-Shiller strategy in a new ETF, got the desirable trading symbol away from Barclays. From my observations, Barclays ran the ETN under the symbol CAPE for several years, but it had to change its symbol to CAPD when the Gundlach team got into the ETF game. DoubleLine has run the MF versions of the strategy since inception, I believe. No idea how this played out behind the scenes. Maybe Barclays isn’t as big a gorilla as the US firm.
  • Stagflation
    If you lived through it you know what it is. This is not it. The term was coined at the time to describe a uniquely troubled economic landscape.
    Not to beg the question @Sven asks, which is a good one. For what I suspect lies ahead …..
    Good companies reasonably priced is one thing I would want to own. I’d want some exposure to foreign currencies either through my fixed income or equity holdings in case the dollar turns south. I’d want a bit in precious metals (5-7%) as a hedge against the unexpected - but I wouldn’t overdo it because they’re very volatile. And of course, I’d want a cash cushion suitable to my risk appetite (or the equivalent in short to intermediate term high quality bonds).
    The above make sense to me in just about any period, but especially as we come off the huge bubble in many assets that has developed and perhaps enter into the end of years of easy money and stimulative monetary policy.
  • Sell JHQAX?? Buy LCORX?
    After I posted my query, trading volume did step up. When CAPE (now CAPD) began trading a few years ago, watching the volume was like waiting for grass seed to sprout. Now it trades robustly. On another thread, I commented on anemic volume of shares in HAPY. That’s still true. Bid and ask prices often are far apart and can lag the market. I am really surprised at the number of transparent and semi-transparent, apparently active, ETFs on offer these days. It’s surprising because an article I read this AM said most ETF volume are goes into passive strategies.
  • Cathie Wood’s Flagship Fund is Down … Money is Still Flowing. WSJ
    Or in the words of David Clayton-Thomas, what goes up must come down ...

    “What goes up, must come down. Right?
    Umm. No. Not necessarily.
    If an object is thrown upward fast enough it will go up and never come down. The minimum speed needed to do this is called the escape velocity.
    No human has ever traveled faster than the escape velocity of the Earth. The Apollo astronauts got very close, but they were headed to the moon, which is trapped by Earth's gravity into a closed orbit. In some sense they didn't really want to escape the Earth. They did manage to travel faster than the escape velocity of the moon, however, which is why they were able to return to the Earth.
    Any spacecraft that has ever traveled to another planet or asteroid has managed to exceed the escape velocity of the Earth. Counting them all is too much work. It's somewhere in the low hundreds. Five space probes are currently on trajectories that will take them out of the solar system, which means they have exceeded the escape velocity of the Sun”

    https://physics.info/gravitation-energy/
  • Proposed HSSA - Health Savings for Seniors Act
    There has to be an escape clause for people putting too much money into HSAs. (Use it or lose it as with FSAs would have made HSAs toxic.) This was always a feature - and always one that came with taxes. Non-medical withdrawals were never triple tax free. The only change being made here is whether a withdrawal penalty is added.
    It's not just Congress saying that IRAs were intended for retirement (though Congress did make that clear in its original legislation). It is the Supreme Court saying the same thing as well, in ruling that inherited IRAs are not retirement accounts deserving of bankruptcy protection.
    In any case, changes involving stretch IRAs did not make formerly tax-free money taxable. They did affect the timing and arguably size of the tax - a quantitative, not qualitative change. Likewise adding a penalty to non-medical withdrawals from HSAs would not make formerly tax-free money taxable since the non-medical withdrawals were never tax-free.
  • NETFLIX
    A root cause is defined as a factor that caused a nonconformance and should be permanently eliminated through process improvement. The root cause is the core issue—the highest-level cause—that sets in motion the entire cause-and-effect reaction that ultimately leads to the problem(s).
    Here's the NYT article on the topic that provides a slightly different take on the causes. I did not see a mention of "the legalization of online sports betting across much of the country" but may have missed it?
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/19/business/netflix-earnings-q1.html#:~:text=In a letter to shareholders,and other emerging streaming services.
    Excerpt:
    ...In a letter to shareholders, Netflix attributed its subscriber loss to a number of factors, including a slowdown in the adoption of broadband and smart TVs; password sharing among households; and increased competition from both traditional cable and broadcast TV and other emerging streaming services. It also cited macroeconomic factors including increased inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which prompted Netflix to shut down its service in Russia, reversing the modest subscriber growth in the European region by a loss of 700,000 Russian accounts.
    But a changing landscape in streaming may also be at play...
  • DoubleLine launched two new ETFs

    DoubleLine Shiller CAPE® U.S. Equities ETF (DCPE)
    DoubleLine Opportunistic Bond ETF (DBND)
    https://www.etf.com/sections/daily-etf-watch/doubleline-launches-its-own-etfs?nopaging=1
    Doubleline Funds website is not yet updated to list any ETFs
  • Golden Dragon China PGJ
    Golden Dragon China ETF PGJ is focused on the US-listed Chinese companies that is being affected by several issues:
    1. Potential US delisting. The SEC has now started to list companies that face high delisting risks. This issue has been simmering for a while but is getting hot again.
    2. Russia-Ukraine war has sensitized investors to risks in Chinese stocks if China-Taiwan issue flares up, or Russia relies/leans on China to escape some Western sanctions.
    3. Covid-19 is spreading again in China and some cities have reimposed partial restrictions. The old Chinese policy of zero-tolerance for Covid-19 is also not working.
    These issue have been mentioned within several threads, but this thread is started to collect related information in one place. There are several China funds, but PGJ may uniquely capture multiple China risks in one fund. It peaked in mid-February 2021 when many US speculative stocks also peaked.
    PGJ at ETF.db https://etfdb.com/etf/PGJ/#etf-ticker-profile
    PGJ at Stockcharts (2-yr, reset if defaults to 1-yr; bottom panels show $VXEEM (that is EM "VIX"), $SPX) https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PGJ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p52602404535
    News1 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-tech-rout-deepens-amid-020459036.html
    News2 https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/14/asia-markets-russia-ukraine-war-covid-omicron-wave-in-china-currencies-oil.html
  • Forsyth’s in top form this week …. :) Plus - Recession Approaching & 70s Style Inflation …
    Thanks @Sven. All is well other than being perpetually mired in 15-30 degree temperatures with treacherous ice & snow still covering the landscape of northern Michigan. I’m of the view we who post regularly are an inquisitive and independent thinking bunch. ISTM, however, there are many “lurkers” who rarely if ever post and who are therefore more interested in seeking answers. You can get a rough idea by the number of “views” that appear next to each thread. So I try to be cognizant of a larger community, to be as accurate and circumspect as I can be, and to not mislead anyone.
    Haven’t found a good way to link full Barron’s or WSJ. articles. Always best to get the info right from the source of course.. However, by Googling a few key words from a posted quotation, it is sometimes possible to pull up the entire article online with enough perseverance. What I have done in the past is clip passages on my Fire device from Kindle based WSJ / Barron’s subscriptions; than email them to myself; than do another cut and paste from my computer to the board. Actually a time consuming process involving two different devices.
    Thanks for the link. Saunders is excellent. Remember her from the old Rukeyser show. Unlike me, she hasn’t aged much. I haven’t yet seen anything bad that Schwab puts out. Will view the linked video.
    Regards
    PS - @Sven said: “Also MFO helped me to pick few great funds that I wouldn’t know about.”
    Yes. About half of my funds were first mentioned on either Fund Alarm or MFO over the couple decades I’ve participated in those forums. And a select handful I own were first mentioned at MFO within the last year. Very grateful.
  • Do any of your funds own Dish ?
    Cape Cod where unless you can run your internet off your phone ( hard to do with movies etc) yo have one choice Comcast.
    Verizon shows DSL speeds of around 3Mb in Cape Cod. I've managed to watch television on 1Mb DSL, so in theory you should have enough speed. But I agree, it's not something to use unless there are no alternatives. Xfinity/Comcast seems to have 300Mb (lowest speed) for $29.99 first year, $59.99 2nd year. Plus taxes that's likely the $65 you're hearing about.
    For that money, I'm getting a "free" landline with Verizon FiOS (not an option available to you) as well as internet.
    Consumer Reports just put up a page (for subscribers) describing various streaming services, including what they cost, and what they lack:
    https://www.consumerreports.org/streaming-video/guide-to-streaming-video-services-a4517732799/
    Excerpts of that piece can be found at the link below. It includes the writeups of DirecTV Stream, Fubo TV, Hulu + Live TV, Sling, and YouTube TV. It omits other services covered in the full CR piece including Acorn, Amazon Prime, AMC+, AppleTV+, BritBox, CNN+, Criterion, Discovery+, Disney+, etc.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/lifestyle/shopping/video-streaming-services-that-let-you-cut-cable-tv/ar-AAV05N6?ocid=msedgntp
    FWIW, I use Sling Blue. $35, streams to up to three devices simultaneously. As opposed to Orange, has more news, less sports, no Disney. It doesn't include CBS or ABC, but in my market it includes the local NBC and Fox affiliates. For the rest, if you're near local broadcast stations, it integrates with AirTV2, a device that will pick up local channels and stream it through your intranet to the Sling app. $49 promo. Once positioned for optimal reception, one doesn't have to worry about getting those rabbit ears near the TV to work well. Doesn't help if you can't pick up local channels, though.
    To tie this back to Dish, Sling is owned by Dish. And since DISH is in the S&P 500, there's a good chance that if you own a broad-based index fund, you own a piece of the company.
  • Do any of your funds own Dish ?
    “We live on Cape Cod where unless you can run your internet off your phone ( hard to do with movies etc) yo have one choice Comcast.”
    I’ve had Starlink for about 18 months and it’s terrific internet at $99 monthly plus a one-time $500 for the equipment. From there you can subscribe to any number of internet TV packages as low as $40 - and on up to the moon. Also some free content.
    BTW - Before getting Starlink I relied for internet on 4G from Visible (owned by Verizon) which had dropped their data caps. By running the 4G streaming feed first into a MacBook (than to a TV) I actually managed to stream movies off of 4G. Less than ideal, but did work reasonably well with the buffering. (Would not work for live TV)
    Just a thought …..
  • Do any of your funds own Dish ?
    We live on Cape Cod where unless you can run your internet off your phone ( hard to do with movies etc) yo have one choice Comcast.
    The recently jacked up prices $30 a month just because they could. We have the basic package for $ 120 ( Little sports, no CNN) to essentially watch local broadcast TV NBC CBS etc, because the nearest station is 80 mile away in Boston.
    I am going to try Sling again for news but in the past when we recorded NBC news they dropped episodes. Rumor is internet only at Comcast costs $65, so we would have $60 to spend on other stuff and still come out ahead.
    Who says America has a competitive market?
  • My Commodities Basket got clobbered today - DBC
    You are right about water funds, @sma3. I own FIW and its industrial tilt has not escaped the market downturn. I have been in and out of KROP (AgTech and Food Innovation), a more indirect play on food price increases. I'm back in now, along with PDBC which also has ag exposure. KROP owns some conventional food companies, but Nutrien and Corteva are its largest holdings.
  • Russian Ruble and Interest Rates: news link
    See some talk about Bitcoin and rubles here
    Some running to Bitcoin to hide assets, escape the collapse in the ruble, some to make it easier to cross borders as a refugee
    Do remember my post from 2 years ago regarding high grade rubies. Don't be surprised if market for high grade gem stones takes off. Inflation is weakening all currencies in real terms, real threat of Cyber warfare crippling financial network
    What happens if Russia escalates, demands removal of NATO weapons back to old borders etc with threats of nuclear war?
    Many more refugees?
    Like I said then you could shove a million bucks of gem stones into your sock and no one would know
    Crazy
    Baseball Fan