I am in the same boat, although just retired so very wary about starting retirement with a 30% loss if things go south. I am widely diversified but have only about 20 to 25% in equities; mostly cash.
It will not take much inflation to crater all but the shortest bond funds, and there is very little difference in the yield as duration goes up. That would imply shorting junk bonds which you can do with ETFs
The dollar has dropped significantly so will probably rebound soon but unless the US gets it's house in order I think it will continue down, making the case for some Gold and Commodities.
I think some EM are doing far better than we are with Covid, but their economies are so linked to ours you need to know more than I do to pick winners. China clearly seems to have controlled Covid but I do not trust their accounting and think there still may be real danger of a major debt induced crash there.
Much of the current reports out of major brokerages recommend hedges and puts, strategies which I have yet to figure out but there are ETFs that have done a pretty good job with them like TAIL
You could also play the Covid recovery with JETS and other ETFs or funds loaded with aerospace, cruise lines restaurants and hotels. Eventually things will get back to normal and there will be a huge pop when there is a successful vaccine announcement although it will be years before it controls covid,, I think

If I make a surprising 25-50% on a stock in 2-3 months, especially if it was not expected given my own view of the markets and the underlying item(s) in question, I consider that worthy of locking in the gains. And no, this is all in taxable. My 403(b) is on autopilot and 100% invested in a single American Fund (RWMGX).

@rforno : What do you consider insanely high STCG profits. Best I could come up with during recent fall - rise was 12% profit. But if one put money to work on the lowest drop day for market , I'd guess profit would be another 3% to 4% profit.
And if you sold , I'm guessing it was in retirement account ?
As for me ,dry powder went both ways , so no sales so far.
Stay Safe, Derf

@rforno : What do you consider insanely high STCG profits. Best I could come up with during recent fall - rise was 12% profit. But if one put money to work on the lowest drop day for market , I'd guess profit would be another 3% to 4% profit.
And if you sold , I'm guessing it was in retirement account ?
As for me ,dry powder went both ways , so no sales so far.
Stay Safe, Derf

For domestic stock funds: David Giroux of PRWCX. Don't have one for international funds due to lack of consistency.
BTW, CalPERS has not been effective in managing their retirement fund for a number of years comparing to David Swanson of Yale University. Swanson uses sizable private equities and alternative strategies in additional the broader index funds. Other institutions including Harvard tried to replicate Yale's approach but none was nearly as successful.

I find myself agreeing with Jim Cramer here ... which happens, from time to time.
Remember the irrational exhuberance going into the Dot Com Crash (Pets.Com!), the Housing Bubble (5 houses on NINJA loans!), and now this.
Remember when you start seeing day-trading ads and services on TV and people start buying into the mania thinking they can't ever lose and that markets only go in one direction (up) that it's time to start inching closer toward the fire exit. As Jeremy Irons' character from 'Margin Call' said, "it's not panic if you're the first one out the door."
What is particualrly disturbing is the 'gamification' of investing by platforms like Robinhood that conflate longterm "investing" for wealth-building and retirement planning with "trading".
My investment portfolio is downright boring compared to most people, and I'm fine with that. It's also why I don't believe in the indices or do index-based investing -- because they're so heavily influenced by a single-digit's worth of ultramegacorps and don't reflect broader equity sentiments.

You’ve identified the storyline here. What remains is how will the story end? With a bang or a whimper? And when? Those who’ve seen the last 15 minutes of this movie aren’t letting on - if they know. It’s tempting to forecast a 50% drubbing of the stock market in short order. The “smart money“ waiting in the wings awakens and moves into stocks at sharply lower prices. A happy ending for the forgotten few who resisted the temptation to own equities and held out long enough. Right out of Disney.
Equally likely are an alternative set of scenarios.
- A very long multi-year (even multi-decade) “rolling” decline to normal valuations with alternating good and bad years. Patient investors can still make money in such an environment - but would require more insight and ingenuity than simply buying the index.
- A rotational correction where the big overvalued names fall while the undervalued equity sectors gain. Financials have lagged. And while one might think the energy, commodity, natural resource sectors overvalued after a recent surge, truth be told those areas are just emerging from the worst decade long bear market in history.
- Correction by stagnation. Equities essentially go nowhere for a decade or longer while the dollar sags, global interest rates rise, and the CPI , real assets, real estate climb in value. Even without a sharp decline, equities would have returned to more normal valuations relative to the dollar and other asset classes over a decade or so.
- Black swans. War, domestic upheaval, shifts in the global balance of power, plagues, environmental catastrophe can all upend an economy and jolt markets leading to different end results than anyone anticipated.
.

Hi guys.
Politics aside.
My perspective (and thinking) on the stock market follow.
A little more on the barometer that will help explain what is now taking place within the S&P 500 Index which it follows. And, why this might be of concern. Over the past couple of weeks the big ten stocks that make up about 28% of the Index (as a group) have increased in their value while a good number of the underlying stocks have decline in their value. As of last week's market close 79% of the stocks wiithin the Index were trading above thier 50 day moving average and at the close of this week the number had declined to 66%. In addition, over the past two weeks there has been money moving out of the Index according to my money flow indicator, which moved from a reading of 84 to 52.
So, explain why the Index has moved upward in price over the past two weeks from 3851 (8/7 market close) to 3397 (8/21 market close) and reached a new high. It is very simple, the top ten stocks (as a group) have done most of the heavy lifting to propell the Index to it's new high while a good number of the underlying stocks have been in decline. The rise in the big ten (as a group) has been more than enough to offset the decine in the underlying (as a group) thus the price of the Index moved upward. After all, this is a cap weighted Index.
In the past, with a decline in money flow along with a good number of stocks moving from above to below their 50 day moving average has often times indicated that a stock market dip (or pull back) is in the making due to a decline in broad based support along with money leaving. This could be because of political convention activity and investors reacting to it by voting with their wallets through the selling of securities. In addition, there was a big increase in short volume in SPY on Friday.
So, what did Old_Skeet do? Absolutely nothing. I am still with my current asset allocation of 15/45/40 (cash/bonds/stocks). For the past five years (since retirement) I have been reconfiguring my portfolio from a growth allocation type which was as high as 10/20/70 down to the present all weather allocation of 20/40/40 which also affords some good income production. If I were to sell I'd be reducing my paycheck. In addition, I've got ample cash to put some into play during a stock market sell off. Presently, due to low cash yields and streached equity valuations I am overweight in bonds by +5%. For now, though, I'm mostly just sitting and watching.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Take Care ... Be Safe ... and, Have a Good Weekend!
Old_Skeet

VTMFX (Vanguard Tax Managed Balanced, 50/50) is about 80% of our taxable account. I used to collect funds (so many interesting ones mentioned here) and fiddle around with portfolio adjustments, and then I realized that VTMFX beat me every year and with less taxable income. So, now I keep it simple. (I'm late 50's and about 5 years pre-retirement.)

I find myself agreeing with Jim Cramer here ... which happens, from time to time.
Remember the irrational exhuberance going into the Dot Com Crash (Pets.Com!), the Housing Bubble (5 houses on NINJA loans!), and now this.
Remember when you start seeing day-trading ads and services on TV and people start buying into the mania thinking they can't ever lose and that markets only go in one direction (up) that it's time to start inching closer toward the fire exit. As Jeremy Irons' character from 'Margin Call' said, "it's not panic if you're the first one out the door."
What is particualrly disturbing is the 'gamification' of investing by platforms like Robinhood that conflate longterm "investing" for wealth-building and retirement planning with "trading".
My investment portfolio is downright boring compared to most people, and I'm fine with that. It's also why I don't believe in the indices or do index-based investing -- because they're so heavily influenced by a single-digit's worth of ultramegacorps and don't reflect broader equity sentiments.

The Fund will be open to:
Existing shareholders in the Fund
New shareholders investing directly with Wasatch Funds
New/Existing clients of financial advisors and retirement plans with an established position in the Fund
You can read more about the fund closing at https://wasatchglobal.com/news-insights/.

@davfor, thank you for the good article. Those who have jobs and retirement accounts are doing much better but a sizable population are not so fortunate and they are suffering. New Zealand is the shining example of how they managed the public health risk well and as the result their citizen are doing much better than those in US.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4368106-municipal-bond-investing-in-covidminus-19-era
Municipal Bond Investing In The COVID-19 Era
This is a follow up to my first article on this topic published in April 2019.
It gives some updated ideas when buying individual muni bonds and muni bond funds.
Other considerations for bond investors
Still reasonable safe assets and maybe slightly better yields than cash. I would consider getting more if near retirement

One can see from the images below, the glide path of these new funds is the same as the glide path of T. Rowe Price's Retirement Fund series of target date funds. That's TRP's more aggressive target date series.
The difference seems to be that these new funds, as might be inferred from the name, use both actively and passively managed funds in their portfolios. This results in a somewhat lower ER for the new funds (around a dozen basis points less).

Retirement funds' glide path:

I read the article and laughed. The first 4 pay under 1.9% which I wouldn't call great cash flow.
VYM pays about 3.6%..BUT WAIT...The higher yield stock style investing must be debunked all the time. VYM trails the SP500 for YTD, 1, 3, 5, 10 years. VYM recovery was way behind. YTD: SP500=VFIAX made 14.7% more than VYM.
I guess you missed the FAANGM and instead concentrated in higher income stocks (T???). Why not look at all stocks and select the best regardless of higher income.
So, what is more important, higher income or higher total return? of course higher returns is better and what I have been practicing since the start, even at retirement.
If I need more cash than my monthly dist (usually bond funds) I just sell some shares when I need to.

by Christine Benz
Mentioned: T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth (PRDGX) , Vanguard Dividend Growth Inv (VDIGX) , Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Adm (VDADX) , Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) , Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM)
"It’s something that even casual market observers know well: Yields on bonds and cash have been going down, largely unabated, for almost three decades. Just when it seemed they had reached their nadir, payouts have taken another leg down. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was just 0.51% on August 4, its lowest level since the equity-market panic back in March. Yields on lower-quality U.S. bonds spiked during the equity-market duress in the first quarter, but they too have drifted back down more recently."
Article Here

@hank. Thanks! I will... someday. Looks like stocks are taking off, but bonds are doing moderately well, too. ALL SORTS of bonds. The Fed is backstopping EVERYTHING. "Don't fight The Fed." I never intended to do so. But, the timing: Just after I moved mostly into bonds (for the purpose of reducing risk in retirement), here we go with a Fed-induced METH LAB, juiced Market. Oh, well. I'm still 35% in stocks and will continue to benefit, to that extent. Meanwhile, my bond funds are rolling along nicely, as well. "Let It Roll." Little Feat.

Thanks @MikeM for the comment. I was aware of your past experience with PRPFX. I slowly established a position during 2014 and 2015 after most of the euphoria with gold had subsided. January 4, 2016 I converted it to a Roth (and discussed that here). Oil was in the dumps back than (bottoming at $26 later in January). I’m satisfied with the fund’s performance post-conversion. IMHO the fund requires a very long-term perspective and a certain personal philosophical leaning regarding money, risk, value - and markets as well. So it is definitely not for everyone.
Today it represents 11.6% of invested assets. It is the only fund I’ve chosen not to rebalance or take any distributions from in retirement. That’s intentional, as it will grow to a larger and larger portion of total investments over time. Umm ... I don’t know how large a % I’m willing to allow the fund to become. As I grow older and more conservative it may replace some riskier assets in the allocation model - particularly in the “real assets” & “balanced” sleeves room exists. I’d think 35% of total portfolio might work.
Yup - it has appeal as a lower volatility substitute for gold. That’s to the chagrin of us longer term investors who hold it through thick and thin.

@hank, as my CDs have matured and yield on CDs and MMs have gone to virtually nothing, I've also been changing "cash" into other holdings. But I've been keeping those other holdings on the conservative side. Nothing too speculative. Not reaching for yield since all my retirement money is in IRA and 401k. I'm just interested in steady, conservative, total return for this substitute for cash... with the understanding I'm also adding risk.
I've invested quite a bit of "cash" into 2 places, short term treasuries by an ETF, ISTB (Ishares 1-5 year duration) and put a substantial amount into a conservative alternative fund, MNWAX.
I used to own PRPFX years ago. As you probably remember it was one of the darlings of the board during and after the 2008 recession. By memory, I think the stocks it holds are geared towards energy which hasn't been in favor for quite a while. Always thought of it as a conservative play on gold.

My goals at retirement are 6+% average annually with SD < 3 + positive annually + never lose more than 3% from any last top.
It seems to me that you jump around quite a bit with large sums of money into a few funds (mostly bond?) that are on a roll in terms of recent performance and low SD. Great that this seems to work for you, but I could not personally implement such a jumping strategy (if I'm correctly understanding your approach). I doubt the approach could work with a few buy and hold funds over the long term. Most would fail on the SD. Taking a quick peek, seems that SIUPX might come close to your criteria? (Avg 5.75 lifetime and SD of 2.9)

One reason maybe that AVEFX ''flies under the radar'' is it is not available at Fidelity or Schwab no load/NTF.

In 2020 peak to trough AVEFX lost about 10% while FPINX lost only about 2%.
AVEFX has 20% in stocks FPINX < 1%
Vanguard VASIX is a better choice than AVEFX. See (

chart). VASIX ER=0.11%. It has better performance and SD(volatility) is close.

There may well be better choices for this TYPE of fund, but the criteria I was focusing on was never a down year. VASIX has had two, including down 10.53% in 2008. Not so pretty. AVEFX has an unbroken streak during its existence dating back to 2004.

If you want only funds that never lost money then performance could lag badly. PFNIX 10 years average annually is only 2% and that's a dismal bond performance.
AVEFX has a much better performance but 3.8-3.9% average annual return for 5-10 years are not good enough for me. At least VASIX performance annually is at 5.2-5.3% and Vanguard uses just indexes.
My goals at retirement are 6+% average annually with SD < 3 + positive annually + never lose more than 3% from any last top.