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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Sell JHQAX?? Buy LCORX?
    After I posted my query, trading volume did step up. When CAPE (now CAPD) began trading a few years ago, watching the volume was like waiting for grass seed to sprout. Now it trades robustly. On another thread, I commented on anemic volume of shares in HAPY. That’s still true. Bid and ask prices often are far apart and can lag the market. I am really surprised at the number of transparent and semi-transparent, apparently active, ETFs on offer these days. It’s surprising because an article I read this AM said most ETF volume are goes into passive strategies.
  • Cathie Wood’s Flagship Fund is Down … Money is Still Flowing. WSJ
    Or in the words of David Clayton-Thomas, what goes up must come down ...

    “What goes up, must come down. Right?
    Umm. No. Not necessarily.
    If an object is thrown upward fast enough it will go up and never come down. The minimum speed needed to do this is called the escape velocity.
    No human has ever traveled faster than the escape velocity of the Earth. The Apollo astronauts got very close, but they were headed to the moon, which is trapped by Earth's gravity into a closed orbit. In some sense they didn't really want to escape the Earth. They did manage to travel faster than the escape velocity of the moon, however, which is why they were able to return to the Earth.
    Any spacecraft that has ever traveled to another planet or asteroid has managed to exceed the escape velocity of the Earth. Counting them all is too much work. It's somewhere in the low hundreds. Five space probes are currently on trajectories that will take them out of the solar system, which means they have exceeded the escape velocity of the Sun”

    https://physics.info/gravitation-energy/
  • Proposed HSSA - Health Savings for Seniors Act
    There has to be an escape clause for people putting too much money into HSAs. (Use it or lose it as with FSAs would have made HSAs toxic.) This was always a feature - and always one that came with taxes. Non-medical withdrawals were never triple tax free. The only change being made here is whether a withdrawal penalty is added.
    It's not just Congress saying that IRAs were intended for retirement (though Congress did make that clear in its original legislation). It is the Supreme Court saying the same thing as well, in ruling that inherited IRAs are not retirement accounts deserving of bankruptcy protection.
    In any case, changes involving stretch IRAs did not make formerly tax-free money taxable. They did affect the timing and arguably size of the tax - a quantitative, not qualitative change. Likewise adding a penalty to non-medical withdrawals from HSAs would not make formerly tax-free money taxable since the non-medical withdrawals were never tax-free.
  • NETFLIX
    A root cause is defined as a factor that caused a nonconformance and should be permanently eliminated through process improvement. The root cause is the core issue—the highest-level cause—that sets in motion the entire cause-and-effect reaction that ultimately leads to the problem(s).
    Here's the NYT article on the topic that provides a slightly different take on the causes. I did not see a mention of "the legalization of online sports betting across much of the country" but may have missed it?
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/19/business/netflix-earnings-q1.html#:~:text=In a letter to shareholders,and other emerging streaming services.
    Excerpt:
    ...In a letter to shareholders, Netflix attributed its subscriber loss to a number of factors, including a slowdown in the adoption of broadband and smart TVs; password sharing among households; and increased competition from both traditional cable and broadcast TV and other emerging streaming services. It also cited macroeconomic factors including increased inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which prompted Netflix to shut down its service in Russia, reversing the modest subscriber growth in the European region by a loss of 700,000 Russian accounts.
    But a changing landscape in streaming may also be at play...
  • DoubleLine launched two new ETFs

    DoubleLine Shiller CAPE® U.S. Equities ETF (DCPE)
    DoubleLine Opportunistic Bond ETF (DBND)
    https://www.etf.com/sections/daily-etf-watch/doubleline-launches-its-own-etfs?nopaging=1
    Doubleline Funds website is not yet updated to list any ETFs
  • Golden Dragon China PGJ
    Golden Dragon China ETF PGJ is focused on the US-listed Chinese companies that is being affected by several issues:
    1. Potential US delisting. The SEC has now started to list companies that face high delisting risks. This issue has been simmering for a while but is getting hot again.
    2. Russia-Ukraine war has sensitized investors to risks in Chinese stocks if China-Taiwan issue flares up, or Russia relies/leans on China to escape some Western sanctions.
    3. Covid-19 is spreading again in China and some cities have reimposed partial restrictions. The old Chinese policy of zero-tolerance for Covid-19 is also not working.
    These issue have been mentioned within several threads, but this thread is started to collect related information in one place. There are several China funds, but PGJ may uniquely capture multiple China risks in one fund. It peaked in mid-February 2021 when many US speculative stocks also peaked.
    PGJ at ETF.db https://etfdb.com/etf/PGJ/#etf-ticker-profile
    PGJ at Stockcharts (2-yr, reset if defaults to 1-yr; bottom panels show $VXEEM (that is EM "VIX"), $SPX) https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PGJ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p52602404535
    News1 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-tech-rout-deepens-amid-020459036.html
    News2 https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/14/asia-markets-russia-ukraine-war-covid-omicron-wave-in-china-currencies-oil.html
  • Forsyth’s in top form this week …. :) Plus - Recession Approaching & 70s Style Inflation …
    Thanks @Sven. All is well other than being perpetually mired in 15-30 degree temperatures with treacherous ice & snow still covering the landscape of northern Michigan. I’m of the view we who post regularly are an inquisitive and independent thinking bunch. ISTM, however, there are many “lurkers” who rarely if ever post and who are therefore more interested in seeking answers. You can get a rough idea by the number of “views” that appear next to each thread. So I try to be cognizant of a larger community, to be as accurate and circumspect as I can be, and to not mislead anyone.
    Haven’t found a good way to link full Barron’s or WSJ. articles. Always best to get the info right from the source of course.. However, by Googling a few key words from a posted quotation, it is sometimes possible to pull up the entire article online with enough perseverance. What I have done in the past is clip passages on my Fire device from Kindle based WSJ / Barron’s subscriptions; than email them to myself; than do another cut and paste from my computer to the board. Actually a time consuming process involving two different devices.
    Thanks for the link. Saunders is excellent. Remember her from the old Rukeyser show. Unlike me, she hasn’t aged much. I haven’t yet seen anything bad that Schwab puts out. Will view the linked video.
    Regards
    PS - @Sven said: “Also MFO helped me to pick few great funds that I wouldn’t know about.”
    Yes. About half of my funds were first mentioned on either Fund Alarm or MFO over the couple decades I’ve participated in those forums. And a select handful I own were first mentioned at MFO within the last year. Very grateful.
  • Do any of your funds own Dish ?
    Cape Cod where unless you can run your internet off your phone ( hard to do with movies etc) yo have one choice Comcast.
    Verizon shows DSL speeds of around 3Mb in Cape Cod. I've managed to watch television on 1Mb DSL, so in theory you should have enough speed. But I agree, it's not something to use unless there are no alternatives. Xfinity/Comcast seems to have 300Mb (lowest speed) for $29.99 first year, $59.99 2nd year. Plus taxes that's likely the $65 you're hearing about.
    For that money, I'm getting a "free" landline with Verizon FiOS (not an option available to you) as well as internet.
    Consumer Reports just put up a page (for subscribers) describing various streaming services, including what they cost, and what they lack:
    https://www.consumerreports.org/streaming-video/guide-to-streaming-video-services-a4517732799/
    Excerpts of that piece can be found at the link below. It includes the writeups of DirecTV Stream, Fubo TV, Hulu + Live TV, Sling, and YouTube TV. It omits other services covered in the full CR piece including Acorn, Amazon Prime, AMC+, AppleTV+, BritBox, CNN+, Criterion, Discovery+, Disney+, etc.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/lifestyle/shopping/video-streaming-services-that-let-you-cut-cable-tv/ar-AAV05N6?ocid=msedgntp
    FWIW, I use Sling Blue. $35, streams to up to three devices simultaneously. As opposed to Orange, has more news, less sports, no Disney. It doesn't include CBS or ABC, but in my market it includes the local NBC and Fox affiliates. For the rest, if you're near local broadcast stations, it integrates with AirTV2, a device that will pick up local channels and stream it through your intranet to the Sling app. $49 promo. Once positioned for optimal reception, one doesn't have to worry about getting those rabbit ears near the TV to work well. Doesn't help if you can't pick up local channels, though.
    To tie this back to Dish, Sling is owned by Dish. And since DISH is in the S&P 500, there's a good chance that if you own a broad-based index fund, you own a piece of the company.
  • Do any of your funds own Dish ?
    “We live on Cape Cod where unless you can run your internet off your phone ( hard to do with movies etc) yo have one choice Comcast.”
    I’ve had Starlink for about 18 months and it’s terrific internet at $99 monthly plus a one-time $500 for the equipment. From there you can subscribe to any number of internet TV packages as low as $40 - and on up to the moon. Also some free content.
    BTW - Before getting Starlink I relied for internet on 4G from Visible (owned by Verizon) which had dropped their data caps. By running the 4G streaming feed first into a MacBook (than to a TV) I actually managed to stream movies off of 4G. Less than ideal, but did work reasonably well with the buffering. (Would not work for live TV)
    Just a thought …..
  • Do any of your funds own Dish ?
    We live on Cape Cod where unless you can run your internet off your phone ( hard to do with movies etc) yo have one choice Comcast.
    The recently jacked up prices $30 a month just because they could. We have the basic package for $ 120 ( Little sports, no CNN) to essentially watch local broadcast TV NBC CBS etc, because the nearest station is 80 mile away in Boston.
    I am going to try Sling again for news but in the past when we recorded NBC news they dropped episodes. Rumor is internet only at Comcast costs $65, so we would have $60 to spend on other stuff and still come out ahead.
    Who says America has a competitive market?
  • My Commodities Basket got clobbered today - DBC
    You are right about water funds, @sma3. I own FIW and its industrial tilt has not escaped the market downturn. I have been in and out of KROP (AgTech and Food Innovation), a more indirect play on food price increases. I'm back in now, along with PDBC which also has ag exposure. KROP owns some conventional food companies, but Nutrien and Corteva are its largest holdings.
  • Russian Ruble and Interest Rates: news link
    See some talk about Bitcoin and rubles here
    Some running to Bitcoin to hide assets, escape the collapse in the ruble, some to make it easier to cross borders as a refugee
    Do remember my post from 2 years ago regarding high grade rubies. Don't be surprised if market for high grade gem stones takes off. Inflation is weakening all currencies in real terms, real threat of Cyber warfare crippling financial network
    What happens if Russia escalates, demands removal of NATO weapons back to old borders etc with threats of nuclear war?
    Many more refugees?
    Like I said then you could shove a million bucks of gem stones into your sock and no one would know
    Crazy
    Baseball Fan
  • CAPE is now CAPD
    love that bf cap tm
    someone somewhere tomorrow is going to trade CAPETM
  • CAPE is now CAPD
    Found this press release
    https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/barclays-announces-the-upcoming-ticker-change-for-the-ipath-shiller-cape-tm-etns-2022-02-17?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts&tesla=y
    regarding change of symbol, effective tomorrow. What I don’t get is why I could not get a price or bid/ask today at either Schwab or TDA. I do own some CAPE, but today it felt as though someone had walked off with my dough. We’ll see what gives Friday. Très weird if you ask me.
  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    Sure. From 18mos ago:
    'It’s very hard to escape the sense that there’s mania now, that this is a FOMO market. When you look at the way that people have piled into the stocks of bankrupt companies like Hertz ....'
  • Seeking Suggestions for Vanguard Asset Allocation Funds
    Along those lines, if one of the requirements is just that the fund hold some bonds, one could pick a top performing 85%+ allocation fund. Like GWPFX.
    Or even better, pick a fund that tracks a pure equity index using derivatives, with most of its assets in bonds as an added kicker. That would meet the window dressing bond requirement while providing equity-like returns for better or worse.
    (AA may be the simplest way but it's not the only way to get bonds into the portfolio.)
    For tracking the S&P 500, there's PSPAX, or if one is willing to eat the $8 (max) TF to get better performance, there's PSTKX or MWATX. If one prefers to track CAPE, there's DSENX (or the better performing DSEEX for an extra $8).
  • What moves are you considering for 2022?
    just an odd fyi --- DSTL (like CAPE) is 'blocked' at ML, cannot be bought, at least in my accounts (retirement and brokerage)
  • Drawdown Plan in (Early) Retirement
    For the love of Pete...I hope there are NOT any blog entries by any "FIRE" proponents who burnt out from the corporate world, stated they retired early, got a van to escape reality but in reality are still working writing a blog which contains "financial investment porn", securing eyeballs so they can post and monetize digital ads.
    Just like Elizabeth Warren, AOC, Bernie Sanders...just go away. Everyone is tired of your nonsense and general kookiness.
    It's kind of like when you put on a suit and tie and are a white dude...no one questions you or looks at you funny when you walk into a store....you write an investment porn blog and just because you get a following that makes you an expert? Never take investment advice from anyone who doesn't have over $10MM. As Josh Brown refers to in is book, "How do you invest, show me your portfolio". Sheet.
    Apologies for the snark. Sincerely DO appreciate the post.
    In reality, all snark aside, I do truly believe the only safe retirement plans are for those who have a gov't pension and live in a "blue" state and will suckle off the teets of their fellow tax payers, come what may. The rest of us are all somewhat gambling in the casino and left to the whims of government monetary and fiscal policy.
    Maybe, just maybe, keep it simple, control your spending, stay healthy as much as possible, don't take on too much risk (meaning either too aggressive investments or too conservate (guilty as charged))
    Best,
    Baseball Fan
  • George F. Shipp of Sterling Capital to retire in 2022
    update:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/889284/000139834421024111/fp0071142_497.htm
    497 1 fp0071142_497.htm
    STERLING CAPITAL FUNDS
    SUPPLEMENT DATED DECEMBER 20, 2021
    TO THE
    CLASS A AND CLASS C SHARES PROSPECTUS AND THE
    INSTITUTIONAL AND CLASS R6 SHARES PROSPECTUS,
    EACH DATED FEBRUARY 1, 2021, AS SUPPLEMENTED
    This Supplement provides the following amended and supplemental information and supersedes any information to the contrary in the Class A and Class C Shares Prospectus and the Institutional, Class R6 Shares Prospectus, each dated February 1, 2021 (collectively, the “Prospectuses”), with respect to Sterling Capital Special Opportunities Fund and Sterling Capital Equity Income Fund:
    Sterling Capital Special Opportunities Fund
    Effective immediately, George Shipp will cease to serve as co-portfolio manager of the Fund, due to his upcoming retirement from the Adviser as disclosed July 12, 2021. Accordingly, the “Management—Portfolio Managers” section in the Prospectuses with respect to Sterling Capital Special Opportunities Fund is hereby deleted and replaced with the following:
    Portfolio Managers
    Joshua L. Haggerty, CFA
    Executive Director of Sterling Capital and Co-Portfolio Manager
    Since July 2021
    (formerly, Associate Portfolio Manager from February 2016 – July 2021)
    Daniel A. Morrall
    Executive Director of Sterling Capital and Co-Portfolio Manager
    Since December 2021
    (formerly, Associate Portfolio Manager from July 2021 – December 2021)
    Sterling Capital Equity Income Fund
    Effective immediately, George Shipp will cease to serve as co-portfolio manager of the Fund, due to his upcoming retirement from the Adviser as disclosed July 12, 2021. Accordingly, the “Management—Portfolio Managers” section in the Prospectuses with respect to Sterling Capital Equity Income Fund is hereby deleted and replaced with the following:
    Portfolio Managers
    Adam B. Bergman, CFA
    Executive Director of Sterling Capital and Co-Portfolio Manager
    Since July 2021
    (formerly, Associate Portfolio Manager from February 2016 – July 2021)
    Charles J. Wittmann
    Executive Director of Sterling Capital and Co-Portfolio Manager
    Since December 2021
    (formerly, Associate Portfolio Manager from July 2021 – December 2021)
    The following replaces the description of the Portfolio Managers set forth under “Fund Management—Portfolio Managers” in the Prospectuses with respect to the Sterling Capital Special Opportunities Fund and Sterling Capital Equity Income Fund:
    Special Opportunities Fund and Equity Income Fund. Joshua L. Haggerty, CFA, Executive Director, joined the CHOICE Asset Management team of BB&T Scott & Stringfellow in 2005, which integrated with Sterling Capital in January 2013. He has investment experience since 1998. He has been Co-Portfolio Manager of the Special Opportunities Fund since July 2021 and was Associate Portfolio Manager of the Special Opportunities Fund from February 2016 to July 2021. Josh is a graduate of James Madison University where he received his BBA in Finance. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.
    Adam B. Bergman, CFA, Executive Director, joined the CHOICE Asset Management team of Scott & Stringfellow in 2007, which integrated with Sterling Capital Management in January 2013. He has investment experience since 1996. He has been Co-Portfolio Manager of the Equity Income Fund since July 2021 and was Associate Portfolio Manager of the Equity Income Fund from February 2016 to July 2021. Adam is a graduate of the University of Virginia’s McIntire School of Commerce where he received his BS in Commerce. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.
    Charles J. Wittmann, CFA, Executive Director, joined Sterling Capital Management in 2014 and has investment experience since 1995. He has been Co-Portfolio Manager of the Equity Income Fund since December 2021 and was Associate Portfolio Manager of the Equity Income Fund from July 2021 to December 2021. Prior to joining Sterling Capital, he worked for Thompson Siegel & Walmsley as a portfolio manager and (generalist) analyst. Prior to TS&W, he was a founding portfolio manager and analyst with Shockoe Capital, an equity long/short hedge fund. Charles received his B.A. in Economics from Davidson College and his M.B.A. from Duke University's Fuqua School of Business. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.
    Daniel A. Morrall, Executive Director, joined Sterling Capital Management in 2014 and has investment experience since 2001. He has been Co-Portfolio Manager of the Special Opportunities Fund since December 2021and was Associate Portfolio Manager of the Special Opportunities Fund from July 2021 to December 2021. Prior to joining Sterling Capital, he worked as an equity analyst for Harber Asset Management and S Squared Technology LLC, technology-biased long/short funds. Dan received his B.S. in Business and Economics from Washington and Lee University, his M.B.A. from Columbia Business School, and his M.S.I.T. from Capella University.
    SHAREHOLDERS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT
    WITH THE PROSPECTUSES FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    SUPP-1221
    -2-
  • The Metaverse Is a $1 Trillion Revenue Opportunity.
    Has the mutual fund METAX been formed yet? It's coming...
    First, a short primer on the history of the internet and where we believe it’s headed. The earliest days of the internet, known as Web 1.0, were characterized by static, one-way webpages—think Netscape and Yahoo. Users were little more than passive observers.
    Next came Web 2.0, the period we’re currently in. Controlled by a disproportionately small number of companies (Facebook, YouTube, etc.), the internet of today is highly centralized despite users’ role as an active participant.
    That brings us to Web 3.0, which will usher in a whole new level of experience that, to some people, may sound more like Tron than real life.
    the-metaverse-is-a-1-trillion-revenue-opportunity-heres-how-to-invest

    There is the ETF META
    https://www.roundhillinvestments.com/etf/meta/