Reply to @Ted:
Hi Ted,
Wondering what your reasons were for selling PRHSX? I own this fund as well as VGHCX.
Also, do individual bonds play a very large role in you portfolio? I recall over the years that you have been an investor who often holds individual bonds. What role do they play for you verses a bond fund and where would you suggest a small investor go to buy an individual bonds?
Thanks, it's always a privilege reading your threads.

Hi Bee. Here is a statistical way to look at probable return range for each of the holdings you gave. Basically, the data is calculated by using 90% probability, or 1.5 x the 3 year standard deviation, then subtracting it from the the 3 year avg return to get the low and adding it to the 3 year avg return to get the high. There is nothing magic about 3 year data. It's just an easy extract to get from M*. If you used 5 year or even 10 year if available, the probability range would likely be more accurate.
One comment though, and this is just something I took from the last big market drop, having this many funds was (in my opinion) a mistake. They were hard to deal with. But to each her own. What I ended up with was a portfolio of 10 funds I feel good about that make up 80% of my 401k portfolio. PRPFX and FPACX are my biggest holdings. I hold this fairly conservative (50% equity) core through thick and thin. What I learned from 2008-2009 was I don't know when to get out or get back in... period. I'll leave it up to good managers that have a flexible mandate. The other 20% I use as what skeeter likes to call, ballast, which would basically be my plays, things like USAGX for pm's, PRNEX for nr/energy or MAPIX for asia, ect... or that 20% can be in cash, a GIC making 4% in my case. It's just more comfortable for me having my "core" separate from a few funds I play. But... we are all different.
Anyway, below is the probable return based on 3 years returns and standard deviations using 90% probability. I hope the copy/paste comes out okay. I'm not very good at the formatting stuff.
Ticker 90% probable return range
CAMAX -40, 61
CSRSX -54, 59
FAIRX -44, 36
GASFX -21, 31
HRVIX -34, 34
MAPIX -18, 43
MATFX -37, 46
MFCFX -22, 44
MSMLX
OAKBX -18, 20
PONDX 4, 23
PRHSX -29, 36
PRMSX -53, 53
PRMTX -31, 49
PRPFX -8, 31
PRWCX -25, 28
PTTDX 3, 16
TGBAX 0, 26
TGMNX 5, 17
USAGX -43, 95
USAIX 0, 17
VDE -41, 35
VGHCX -23, 29
VHCOX -40, 35
VWO -45, 51
WAEMX -34, 67

I have tried mapping out a "risk shift" strategy rather than a "sell" strategy with respect to the holdings in my portfolio. Would welcome comments.
This "de-risking" has required me to first assign a risk tolerance (that I am comfortable with) to all of my holdings. The categories of risk tolerance are as follows:
cash/cash equivalent...0% -3% downside risk due to currency devaluation and inflation (we'll ignore institutional financial strength...staying solvent)...I am presently using PONDX as my cash position and try to maintain 10-20% allocation with respect to my overall portfolio. This is where I look for cash when I look to buy "things on sale". I also have a small amount (5%) of Gold/Silver using CEF. Just an insurance policy on fat tail risk.
Low...3% - 10% downside risk...I place funds like PRPFX = Permanent Portfolio and TGBAX = Templeton Global Bond Fund as well as a whole host of Total Return / Income Funds like PTTDX, TGMNX, or USAIX. These are the anchors. They are added to when I look at my overall allocation. I try to maintain a 30-50% allocation in these funds
Moderate...10% - 20% downside risk...Many of my balanced/dividend/defensive funds fall into this category...MAPIX = Mathews Income, PRWCX=T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation, and OAKBX = Oakmark Fund. Also, PRHSX, VGHCX, GASFX, and CSRSX are some others I also include in this category. I consider these part of my core holdings that I add to when I have profits. In a downward trending market I try to de-risk my higher risk investments into these moderate risk funds. This keeps me somewhat in the market eliminating some of the market timing issues. I am never very good at spotting the exact bottom or top. So (risk shifting) into these moderate risk investments seems helpful when the market goes against me. This collection of funds could represent 20-40% of my portfolio.
High... 20% - 33% downside risk...These are primarily equity funds that I own to follow a trend, and add some alpha. I have owned CAMAX, HRVIX, MFCFX, USAGX, PRMSX, VWO, VDE, VIT, VHCOX, PRMTX, MATFX, MSMLX, WAEMX, etc. This is the set of investments that I am monitoring and trying to upgrade...improve upon. When they hit the negative 20% level or move upward a positive 10% they become candidates to "de-risk". Some in this category are doing very well such as USAGX and I may consider taking profits some are not and I may reduce my exposure to them temporarily. Cash elsewhere in my portfolio allows me the ability to add to these funds when they are trending upward. When these funds are out of favor they could stay out of favor for sometime. I look to shift some or all of these holdings into a Moderate or low risk investment. I am willing to monitor them from a de-risked position. This category of funds could make up 5-20% of my overall portfolio.
Extreme... 33%- or more downside risk... I have very small speculative position in RIMM (Research in Motion)...I have lost 55% so far this year with RIMM. I own FAIRX and have suffered a 29% loss in value with this fund. I planned on holding both of these 3-5 years but I will continue to monitor them closely and make regular "gut checks". In good times I would like to see 20% plus gains here before I de-risk some profits. These holdings could be represent 0 - 15% of my overall investments. They are small positions that I am willing to be patient with. I also find them to be my biggest learning experiences.
As I said earlier, I am not very good at timing the market at the tops or bottoms so periodic de-risking an investment that is trending above or below your tolerance threshold might be worth considering.
Comments welcome...
bee

MJG,
I checked a few funds and results are not consistent.
at low-risk, VFINX
period 12/31/2006 to 3/31/2009
Portfolio Total Return: -40.9%
The above portfolio's total return was -40.9%, outperforming the S&P 500's return of -43.7%. The total return includes stock price appreciation and dividends.
Q1. Why is VFINX return better than VFINX?
Q2. Morningstar has total balance at $5906 for this period for VFINX, which should be around -31% total return, not -40% as above. However, OAKBX has ending balance of $8809, which matches low-risk site total return of -11.8%.
I had checked VGHCX over a few periods and the total returns matched.

Thanks John...some thoughts
S&P 500 is undervalued...
Any good dividend paying S&P 500 funds that pay while you wait?
Japanese equities (could be a value trap...needs a growth catalyst):
I own these:
OAKIX= Oakmark International (30% exposure to Japan)
MAJFOX = Matthews Japan
PRJFX = TR Price Japan
Emerging markets(need to watch closely...big runs up and down):
Own these:
TREMX (T Rowe Price Int:Em Euro)...Russia,Turkey E. Europe will benefit...this fund is out of favor right now
VWO = Vanguard Emerging ETF...better choice to VEIEX...no transaction fee with Vanguard Brokerage Acct.
WAEMX = Wasatch Emerging Small Cap...nice alpha recently
PRASX = TR Price New Asia...401k offering
Technology:
Smart Phone has opened the door to the smart grid (Electric power(Energy)+ IT)
VOX = Vanguard Telecom
PRMTX = TR Price Media & Telecom...Long term hold...long term leader
PRGTX = TR Price Gloal Tech
MATFX = Matthews Asian Tech
Energy: (its impact on inflation/recession is a concern)
Alternate Energy has a opportunity to be a opportunity area such as;
(Lithium Ion Tech)
1. Power Storage for Vehicles = Electric Storage, Vehicles, Electric Producers
2. Power Storage for the Grid
(NG Fueling stations)
1. Fleet Vehicles (Trucks, Buses, etc.)
I own:
VDE= Vanguard Energy ETF...VGENX replacement
GASFX = FBR Gas Utility...Dividend paying distribution & Infrastructure Companies
Industrials: (I need suggestions here)
VIS = Vanguard Industrials ETF
Health care:
PRHSX = TR Price Health Sciences
VHT = Vanguard Health Care...ETF replacement for VGHCX
FPHAX = (Fidelity Sel Pharm)
BUFTX (Buffalo:Sci & Tech)...nice combination of Tech and healthcare
Income Choices( Not US teasuries but):
High Yield Corporate
Corporate Bonds
Selective Muni Funds
Corporate) Inflation Protection verses TIPs
Emerging Bonds
Countries that seem worth researching:
Canada
Australia
New Zealand
Mexico
Brazil
Norway,Germany,UK,France
Russia
Turkey
Japan, Korea, Taiwan
Get paid (dividend) while you wait for these to come into favor:
Homebuilders & (REITS)
Small Banks
Large Banks
Nuclear Power
Any thought appreciated,
bee