Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • questions for board
    Your friend need to review his retirement strategy carefully. It is still not too late since he has 6-7 years before retirement. He may consider using an asset advisor to guide his planning. In my humble opinion, his 70/30 allocation is too aggressive given the current market conditions. He should be reading the informative MFO articles from our Charles Lynn Bolin. Also he writes for Seeking Alpha.
    Using target dated funds is a good starting point in his planning. Being well inform will keep him/her of making irrational changes in this moment of time.
  • questions for board
    "He was asking me when DOWS reach new highs >31K again so he can slowly pull out and go 50/50 before retirement"
    NO ONE I repeat NO ONE can answer that question. Period. They can guess all they want but they would just be guessing.
  • questions for board
    Hi, John.
    You might want to check in with T Rowe Price. They have revised the glide path for their Target Date funds and have, for a number of years, recommended considerable caution in the years immediately before retirement. If I recall correctly, they allow for somewhat greater equity exposure after retirement than in the 2 years preceding it.
    They have likely posted articles on the subject, but I don't have immediate access to them because I am sitting in the waiting room of an auto repair shop. No coffee. Too risky, they've concluded. Also, no one else in the waiting room.
    David
  • questions for board
    Hope you are good
    my friend will retire in ~ 6 or 7 yrs, he lost 27% of porfolio past 4 wks. He is well diversified I think 70% stocks 30% bonds mostly in index and Target dated funds 2030
    He was asking me when DOWS reach new highs >31K again so he can slowly pull out and go 50/50 before retirement
    I told him maybe good to consider changing porfolio 6-12 months prior your retirement maybe heavy in bonds [like others did here when DOWS 28K or so RIGHT prior to crashes].
    Any Ideas? 2023? IMHO - I think it may take awhile for this to recover few months and then we may have slow downs, maybe takes some times to market to recover/heal and start upswings again so could be 12-36 months before see DOWS 30K again. But we never know, it maybe there again in 6-8 months.
  • Chart advisor -bear market
    Everything red today, no where to run even tgd funds
    /Bear market
    Logo
    Chart Advisor | Focus on the Price
    By Gordon Scott, CMT
    Wednesday, March 11, 2020
    1. Volatility pricing at foreboding levels
    2. Some target funds look ugly right now
    3. A remote portfolio
    Market Moves
    Stocks fell to their lowest close of the year so far and fell by a larger amount than any other day this year (besides Monday). Today's roughly five percent drop has only been bested a handful of times in the last decade on any of the major market indexes. State Street's S&P 500 index ETF (SPY), and Invesco's Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) have both hit this mark no more than five times. Perhaps that's why stocks staged a sucker's rally yesterday, since each previous time it did so was near a short-term swing low. However, this time it might be different.
    That's because almost none of the previous occurrences coincided with the kind of pricing shown today in the options of the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX). The chart below gives a visual representation of the pricing of options on the VIX. Based on the pricing, these ranges represent just over a one-standard-deviation range of probability for each given expiry. What stands out is that the pricing of all of these ranges puts them above 30 for the next six months. Option market makers are basically saying they think that the market is going to remain crazy and generally trend lower for the foreseeable future. The fact that the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJX) slipped into bear market territory only confirmed what they fear.
    There is one other possibility, and that is that these prices are simply overdone, the market correction is over, and all will soon return to normal. Seems like a slim chance. More specifically a fifteen percent chance of avoiding a bear market. At least that's the way options were priced today at the close.
    Image
    Some Target Funds Look Ugly Right Now
    If you hate the idea of having to watch charts and look at stocks, you're probably not reading this right now. That simply says you aren't like most people. Most people would rather set their retirement choices up once and walk away and forget them. That's why target funds were invented. You pick a fund that matches your planned-for retirement year (or thereabouts) and simply put all your eggs in that basket. The fund will diversify for you and change that diversification over time.
    The chart below shows how a comparison of two such funds (from Vanguard) and compares them with a couple bond-heavy funds. Younger individuals using such a fund and targeting retirement in 2050 probably won't want to look at their portfolio today. It has likely dropped about 15 percent in value over the past two weeks. Retirement hopefuls targeting five years out have had to endure significantly less volatility, but even these kinds of funds have dropped about ten percent recently. By comparison, funds that are 80 percent or even 100 percent composed of bonds are up for the year. That likely sounds attractive, but if you think about the way the bond prices collapsed over the past three days, such funds may have more volatility than desired in the days ahead.
    That's why looking at these funds over the course of a full year can help. It's true the drop lately has been precipitous, but over the past year, the 2050 fund has only lost 3.9% and the 2025 fund is nearly unchanged. These amounts can easily be compensated for in any subsequent upward trend of the stock market./
  • funds that are holding up in bad markets, thriving in good
    Not as familiar with Akre's approach. In general, I think it is better to go with funds/families which do not rely heavily on the brilliance of one leader, but the soundness of its approach, principles and operational discipline. Humans are subject to biases (confirmation, personality following), asymmetric skill sets (better in certain investment climate, for example), decline of mental faculties (analytical, memory, inspirational, creative), and eventual retirement/death. Some brilliant leaders also put together effective systems that can persist beyond them. If one does not want to take manager risk, just buy the indices per your allocation.
  • Vanguard's VMVFX... not so Minimum
    @bee
    Volatility is opportunity.
    High volatility on the downside creates buying opportunities and high volatility on the upside create capital appreciation.
    It feels like VMVFX misses the mark on both counts.
    Volatility is not an opportunity for those with short-time horizons and low risk tolerance. While one could argue such investors should just be in bonds or cash, that is not practical for many investors seeking to achieve their investment/retirement goals. I feel like this fund largely does a good job of helping investors stay in the market even when times are rough. A lot of what volatility is depends on your perspective and individual psychology. Some people can't stomach it and the idea that one size fits all in this regard is not realistic.
  • Dodge and Cox
    DODGX will be bumpy. But for me, the returns have been better than the S&P 500 since I bought it for my taxable (4/15/1991) and retirement account (10/06/2011). So I am happy.
    Most of the experts I've ever read say you should have some exposure to overseas markets. So DODFX is probably as good as any of them. Given the bets you describe, it may be even bumpier, as well as a longer wait to beat its benchmark.
    I do like the way they do business. There's just one low fee for everyone buying the funds. And the turnovers on their portfolios are low.
    I don't care for funds that have a large discrepancy between the surfs and the lords. And I don't think there are all that many people smart enough to beat the market trading rapidly. It just adds a cost drag to returns.
    I bought DODIX this past December when I was rebalancing my retirement account to lean more on bonds. I was attracted to their A avg rating and lower than average duration.
    I wouldn't sell anything in this environment unless I needed the money, or wanted to realize a tax loss for some reason. I have enough cash to go shopping, probably sometime later this year. So I don't need to sell anything.
    I might even buy more DODGX for the IRA. It is currently suffering worse than the S&P 500. And may continue to do so for a while.
  • Retirement and fund house choices
    I use Schwab & Vanguard. I find Schwab easier to use.
    Enjoy your retirement !
    Derf
  • How long it takes for savings Bond to Reach Its Face Value?
    Just like Social Security retirement age, the government has defined two different end points for savings bonds:
    SS: full retirement age (65-67 depending on date of birth)
    Savings Bonds: original maturity (20 years)
    SS: Maximum delayed retirement age, or something like that (70)
    Savings Bonds: final maturity (20 year original maturity plus 10 year extended maturity)
    For most purposes, it's these latter dates that matter. They determine when credits end:
    SS: Delayed retirement credits
    Savings Bonds: interest credits
    https://treasurydirect.gov/forms/savpdp0039.pdf
    Note: you are required to declare interest income from savings bonds when they reach final maturity, regardless of whether or not you redeem them. You can't shift income into the next year by, say, redeeming a savings bond in January 2021 that reaches final maturity in December 2020.
    So there's no advantage, or at least none I can think of, in holding a savings bond past its final maturity date.
    https://www.irs.gov/publications/p550#en_US_2018_publink10009904
  • IOFIX
    Haven’t been on the site for a while. Adjusting to retirement last fall. Does anyone have any thoughts about this fund? And I apologize if it’s been talked about and I’ve missed it.
  • An Investor’s Guide to Income Funds (investing 101 refresher)
    https://smartasset.com/financial-advisor/income-fund
    An Investor’s Guide to Income Funds
    Investing in the stock market involves two main objectives: growth and income. Growth investments can increase in value over time. Income investments can put money into your pocket consistently. An income fund is one way to cash in on the benefits of income investing in a simplified way.
    Treasury
    Municipal bonds
    Corporate bonds
    Junk bonds
    International bonds
    Income funds can serve a distinct purpose inside a portfolio. As a result, there are several good reasons to include them as part of your retirement strategy. Take time to research different income funds. That can help you decide which of those funds may best meet your investment goals.
  • Retirement and fund house choices
    @Art, I echoed comments from Mike, catch and msf. You can't go wrong with either Scheab and Fidelity. Noted there are differences that you may or may not need and you can decide. For us we have done business with Fidelity and Vanguard who they served as our 401(k) administrators as well as other retirement accounts. We seldom use Fidelity's retail shops although they are only a short drive away. Thus we slowly consolidated towards Vanguard while still have a taxable account with Fidelity. Even though we like T. Rowe Price funds, they are now on NTF platforms in Vanguard and Fidelity. The biggest draw for us is the low cost and quality of Vanguard funds we have access to - index and active managed funds.
  • Retirement and fund house choices
    I would be inclined to use Schwab or Fidelity in the decumulation phase (retirement), because they charge nothing to sell TF funds. Also, they both have excellent customer service, and FWIW both have offices that you can walk into.
    If you're looking for a particular add on service (e.g. robo advisor) you should take a closer look at what each provider offers. Also, Schwab, like most brokerages tends to be a bit skimpy on what it pays on cash. That's usually not a concern with retirement accounts, though.
    Finally, though this is probably obvious, you can move the accounts to a single provider but you're likely not going to be able to do much consolidation. Each of you must own your own IRAs, and if you have them, your own Roth IRAs. That's four accounts right there. If you have HSAs, those also have to be kept separate. I tend to think of those as retirement accounts as well. Fidelity offers retail HSAs, while Schwab does not.
  • Retirement and fund house choices
    Retirement nearing. I have between the wife and I 5 retirement accounts at 5 different places. I want to consolidate all the accounts for simplicity. Thinking Schwab. For those that have done this or thinking about it please share your thoughts concerning your choice(s) and why?
  • PDI, PCI or PTY
    I've been waiting years for an opportunity to get into some of Pimco's amazingly high performing CEFs, and I'm thinking I'm going to get it. (These will go into my solo 401K, with retirement 15+ years away, so I'm happy to wait out volatility.) Anyone have any insights as to the big differences between the three and which might make the better long-term bet? It seems like PTY has much lower leverage (and therefore expenses), as well as a lower premium, but it doesn't seem much different in the end result.
  • 75 Must-Know Statistics About Women and Retirement
    By Christine Benz at M*
    "Lower lifetime earnings and longer life expectancies paint a troubling picture about the state of women's retirement preparedness."
    Article Link
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    I am strongly debating switching from bond OEFs, which currently comprise 10% of my dad’s income-managed retirement portfolio (essentially bucket 1), to bond ETFs (and i friggin’ hate bond ETFs/indexes).
    At TDA, the 180-day holding period made it hard to opportunistically sell out of bond holdings (albeit temporarily) to purchase things that were selling off (and had become good values), such as the PIMCO CEFs (some of which traded at 1.5-2% higher yields last week). VCIT, VCSH, and some of the more conservative (oxymoron?) IG CEFs, such as BTZ and TSI. Currently hold IOFIX (arguably the best multi-sector), PONAX (steady ~5% income), and SEMPX (enhances cash) in this spot. I know OEFs (esp bond OEFs) aren’t for trading...
    Ugh. That means I would be holding bond funds for ballast. Yikes....
  • *
    I am strongly debating switching from bond OEFs, which currently comprise 10% of my dad’s income-managed retirement portfolio (essentially bucket 1), to bond ETFs (and i friggin’ hate bond ETFs/indexes). At TDA, the 180-day holding period made it hard to opportunistically sell out of bond holdings (albeit temporarily) to purchase things that were selling off (and had become good values), such as the PIMCO CEFs (some of which traded at 1.5-2% higher yields last week). VCIT, VCSH, and some of the more conservative (oxymoron?) IG CEFs, such as BTZ and TSI. Currently hold IOFIX (arguably the best multi-sector), PONAX (steady ~5% income), and SEMPX (enhances cash) in this spot.