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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How to Pick a First Bond Fund
    My exposure to bond investing, as well as other asset categories of investing, was through employment retirement programs. Financial Advisors would meet with our employees, and recommend a series of fund options, based on a variety of factors associated with diversification, total return objectives, and various levels of risk. As I experienced the impact of fund performance, in a variety of market conditions, I became much more interested in the funds I owned and how they were performing. At any rate, I reached a point in my life where I was being asked for advice about fund choices, and my standard response was to wade into the bond investing world, with relatively low risk and safer bonds, study what impacted performance, and start forming ideas of how to diversify into other bond categories and learn by ownership to a large extent. I think a good place to begin is to select an investment grade short term bond fund, and move some of your cash out of a banking account, and learn about what is involved in watching some of the fluctuations of performance in this bond fund, in order to produce a higher yield or total return, than you would get from a savings or money market fund. That is a good first step before moving into more risky and more volatile bond funds from other categories--but I always think its important to have a high risk of success with safer options and then slowly evolve to more risky options. Try to learn by owning a fund, and watching performance, but do it in a way where you can minimize odds of trauma with beginning investment decisions.
  • J.P.Morgan Guide to the Markets Q1 2020
    I spent a lot of time on Page 63.
    Paints an interesting picture.
    -The negative volatility of stocks is very similar to bonds over a 5 year rolling average...negative 2% vs negative 1%...interesting.
    - An all bond portfolio performs equally well compared to a 50/50% (stock/bond) portfolio over a rolling 10 year average...very interesting
    - Over long rolling periods (20 years) stocks are 3 times more profitable and less risky than bonds. Or another way of looking at it, it would require only 33% funding in stocks to equal 100% funding in bonds to reach the same financial goal. Also, an all stock portfolio has a greater chance of earning a significantly higher "low end" long term return (6% vs 1%) vs an all bond portfolio over a 20 year rolling period.
    Thought on Retirement strategies:
    -Fund Long term (rolling 20 year needs) using a 100% stock portfolio, expect 8X on the initial investment.
    -Fund short term (1-5 year) retirement needs with 100% bonds
    -Fund mid term (rolling 5 years, rolling 10 years, rolling 15 years) retirement needs with a 50/50 portfolio of stocks and bonds. Might look like VWINX (40/60).
    Page 62
    At age 65, a husband and wife have a 90% that one will live to 80 years old and a 49% chance one will live to 90. Plan for 35 years of retirement withdrawals.
    Fund age 65 - 70 withdrawal needs with an all bond portfolio. The likelihood that you will pull money from this portfolio at a loss is lower compared to the 100% equity portfolio and the 50/50 portfolio over this 5 year rolling period. The bond portfolio has a potential maximum loss of (-8%) verses (-15%) for the 50/50 portfolio and (-39%) for the all equity portfolio. Plan for these kinds of negative outcomes (sequence of return risks).
    Funds for age 70 - 75 withdrawal needs (5-10 years away) might best be constructed as a balanced 50/50 portfolio. Weigh the risk / reward to ST/low duration bonds or cash like substitutes to the Total Bond Index to the Total Stock Index.
    Fund age 75- 80 (10-15 years away) as well as Age 80-85 (15-20 years away) with:
    -100% equities which would add more downside risk (only -1%), as well as higher possible positive returns (19%)
    - 100% bonds portfolio or 50/50 portfolio provide almost identical returns variances with the 50/50 portfolio having slightly better downside risk. Neither of these two portfolios lost principal. Funding for worse case outcomes plan for the withdrawal amount to at least equal the investment amount.
    Fund ages 85-100 withdrawal needs with an all equity portfolio. Determine each years Inflation adjusted withdrawals. Worse case scenario for an all stock portfolio over 20 years is a positive 6%. Fund for the kind of outcome. Fund this portfolio at 33% of the withdrawal need...for example if you will need $10K (in today's dollars) and (inflation adjusted @ 2% for 15 years), your total need would be about $350K for these 15 years of withdrawals, so one would need to fund 33% of $350K or $117K in today's dollars. $117K hopefully grow to at least $350K in 20 years in a buy and hold all equity portfolio.
  • Opinion: What should your retirement wish be for 2020
    "What should your retirement wish be for 2020"
    Well, my wish is that our health remains in as good shape as our retirement income. At the moment, that may be somewhat optimistic.
  • Opinion: What should your retirement wish be for 2020
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-should-your-retirement-wish-be-for-2020-2020-01-08
    Opinion: What should your retirement wish be for 2020
    Which of the following retirement scenarios would you want to come true in 2020?
    Lower interest rates along higher stock and bond prices, or higher interest rates and lower stock and bond markets? If you’re like most retirees and soon-to-be retirees to whom I pose this question, the answer is a no-brainer: Of course your fervent wish is for the former.
  • Small Growth Fund
    Agree with PRDSX. I have it in my T Rowe Roth IRA and won't sell it for at least ten more years as retirement approaches.
  • *
    I have completed making portfolio adjustments in my retirement portfolio for end of 2019 and beginning of 2020. I attempt to look at funds I am most likely to be able to hold for all of 2020--I don't like to buy and sell frequently, am not good at timing, and prefer funds with a smoother performance pattern and strong downside performance history. Trying to make some adjustments in my Traditional IRA account consumed my most recent considerations. I looked closely at JMSIX, PUCZX, and JMUTX as potential new multisector bond funds to my portfolio--they had excellent performance in 2019, but I ultimately chose to just increase the amount I hold in some existing funds such as VCFAX, PIMIX, IISIX, and SEMMX. These existing funds have lower volatility/standard deviation, and I am more likely to continue holding them in a calendar year, which I suspect may have some challenges with the elections and some global tensions. In short, I wanted to maintain some holdings that look like to have good defensive performance characteristics. I am more focused on preservation of principal, than chasing the performance of recent hot funds.
    Best wishes on making choices you feel good about for 2020!
  • Qn re: Tax Reform Makes Real Estate Investment Trusts More Attractive
    See below. For those of us that happen to own REIT mutual funds in non-retirement accounts, how exactly does this 'advantage' work, when we file our taxes? Thanks.
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/tax-reform-makes-real-estate-investment-trusts-more-attractive-53448.html
    FAMag: Tax Reform Makes Real Estate Investment Trusts More Attractive
    January 6, 2020 • Jeff Stimpson

    ... According to the IRS, income from a REIT in a mutual fund will be considered QBI, Cordes said, adding that this deduction is available for all shareholders regardless of their income level or whether they itemize or take the standard deduction.
    REITs once had a worse reputation regarding taxes—a bias that lingers even after tax reform. “Most high-net-worth clients are not aware of the additional tax benefits afforded to them for REIT investments created by the TCJA,” said Davin Carey, senior wealth advisor of Carey & Hanna Tax & Wealth Planners in Oxnard, Calif., and a representative of Avantax Investment Services.
  • You May Need a Different Kind of Financial Professional for Retirement
    Right. Sequence of returns risk is greatest at year 1 of retirement, generally the first 10 years or so of retirement have the major risk (decreasing yearly). The 5 or so years before retirement is also very significant in determining amount of portfolio available for withdrawal. During this 15-year period, be very diversified and if you don't maintain a consistent asset allocation (say, 60/40), be more conservative in this period.
  • Biggest bang for your buck: 8 equity funds with the best capture ratios over the entire market cycle
    Where is the evidence that the market could "slap (you) in the face" soon?
    There is none. With respect, the very person who recently told us to ignore speculative comments like this has just made one himself!
    The facts all point to continued growth in the US stockmarket for the foreseeable future. There is absolutely zero evidence supporting the recession theory, let alone the crash theory. Volatility, however, is normal and to be expected. For those who are new to investing or some way from retirement do not let the daily "noise" put you off making decisions. Never attempt to time the market; instead drip-feed in your money on a monthly or regular basis if you don't want to commit yourself 100%.
  • Futures slump after U.S. kills top Iranian commander
    Did Trump just insure his re-election? No way Iran keeps quiet after this. The nuclear deal is off. Iran will do something for sure. US will go to war.
    Everyone's retirement will be effed because of Artificial Idiocy. I always thought it would be Artificial Intelligence causing falling wages that would do it. I have another child fixing to go to college next year.
    PS - probably should be changed to OT discussion (if possible)
  • Biggest bang for your buck: 8 equity funds with the best capture ratios over the entire market cycle
    Interesting. I had opened a position in YACKX about 10 years ago for the reasons listed above, with the intention of moving more of my IRA into it as I approached retirement. However, Fidelity or Yacktman placed a hard close on the fund, preventing me from buying any more shares. So, I settled on PRBLX as a suitable replacement and it has far exceeded my expectations. I’m actually glad that YACKX closed because I’ve done better in PRBLX and their investment philosophy is more aligned with my preferences.
  • How to avoid or hedge rollover limbo?
    About half of our retirement savings is still sitting in the 401K accounts for my wife’s and my former employer. It’s a good 401K plan with a range of index funds, low expenses and a decent stable value fund. We’ve been rolling over some of the funds each year to Roth IRAs, at a rate that doesn’t bump us up to a higher tax bracket. Eventually, I would also like to transfer the remaining funds to our existing Rollover and Roth IRAs.
    Here’s the rub. Every time we do a transfer or rollover, the money is out of the market for up to two weeks. The markets often make big moves in two weeks time, and I prefer to stay invested. In almost every case in which I moved funds, the markets went up, so I essentially lost money by being out of the markets. So far, the amounts haven’t been huge because I’ve transferred amounts ranging from $5,000 to $20,000. However, if I decided to move my entire 401K accounts, the amounts could be sizable.
    Of course, the transfers could work in my favor if the markets dropped during the time that my 401K funds are sold and reinvested two weeks later — but it never seems to work that way.
    Does anyone have any ideas for speeding up the rollover/transfer process or hedging the potential losses?
  • why it’s about to become much harder to save for retirement
    https://www.businessinsider.com/retirement-saving-advice-2020-from-blackrock-bond-cio-rick-rieder-2019-12
    BlackRock’s $1.7 trillion bond chief explains why it’s about to become much harder to save for retirement — and shares his best advice for doing it successfully
    Safe, high-yielding investments are shrinking in availability at a time when retirement savers need them the most, according to Rick Rieder, the global chief investment officer of BlackRock’s $1.9 trillion fixed income business.
    He estimates that 1.8 million people in the US will hit the retirement age of 65 every six months — double the pace from 20 years ago.
  • *
    Found this old post by Junkster concerning HOBEX concerning MLPs in retirement accounts:
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/110225/#Comment_110225
  • *
    Bobpa: "Any opinion on LALDX or HOBEX? Thank you for all your input." .
    Bobpa, I owned LALDX for years through an employment retirement menu--I considered it a good, relatively low risk, fund, with a large AUM (likely due to its being marketed through company retirement plans). I think Lord Abbot is somewhat more aggressive in their asset management approach for this fund, compared to funds like DBLSX and DHEIX. I think it can be a good fund for ballast portfolio roles, and for a conservative bond oef investor, it looks like a very viable option.
    Regarding HOBEX, it is a relatively new fund (about 3 years old), generally looks to be a High Risk/High Return fund for its category. Focuses heavily on Corporate bonds, and with a bit higher volatility than most of its peers. I don't like its very high Expense Ratio (1.81) and I don't care for a relatively steep peak to trough loss in 2018 for this category of funds. It would not fit my criteria for investing, but certainly has had a high return for its category in its 3 year existence. It is not a fund I follow, not a company I am familiar with, so I personally would be careful with what I know.
  • You May Need a Different Kind of Financial Professional for Retirement
    " For retirees who rely on their investments for retirement income, [the time at which one starts drawing on investments] is also one of the riskiest, if not the riskiest, time in an investor’s life."
    If you agree with that (I do), then it must follow, as the night the day, that your later years of retirement are less risky times. Thus it makes sense that you invest most conservatively when you begin retirement, and more aggressively as you move through retirement. In part that is to make up for the very conservative portfolio you start with.
    That's the point and conclusion of work by Pfau and Kitces on rising equity glidepaths in retirement. There have been many reports and refinements of that work. I offer just one link below for the basic idea.
    https://www.onefpa.org/journal/Pages/Reducing Retirement Risk with a Rising Equity Glide Path.aspx
  • You May Need a Different Kind of Financial Professional for Retirement
    From the AAII Journal, January 2020. Written by Julie Jason.
    "For those who are soon to retire or have recently retired, there is an inflection point between receiving a paycheck from an employer and a paycheck from your portfolio. For retirees who rely on their investments for retirement income, it is also one of the riskiest, if not the riskiest, time in an investor’s life. After all, you won’t go back to work for 45 years to recover from mistakes.
    What type of financial service is best for the retiree who needs to “live off of” their investments?"
    ARTICLE
  • 529 Account Question
    In NYS your tax bracket won't be that much lower in retirement - the first dollar of taxable income is taxed at 4%, and it doesn't take much ($23K for couples) to see that go up to 5.25% or even 5.9% (at $28K).
    Of course NYS doesn't tax SS, so let's say that you'll be saving around 2% on the difference in rates between now and when you retire. (NY recaptures the deduction by taxing the past contributions when you make nonqualified withdrawals. See IT-201 Line 22.)
    Assuming that the excess contributions earn a cumulative return of at least 20% over the years, the 10% penalty on the earnings will more than wipe out any savings on the NYS side.
    Beyond that, what you've got is essentially a non-deductible IRA. The money goes in post-tax (federal), the earnings are sheltered, and then taxed as ordinary income rather than cap gains/qualified divs when withdrawn.
    Post-tax contributions can make sense if you're planning to invest in very tax-inefficient funds, like the 529 Income Portfolio. But if you're planning on investing in something more tax-efficient, I don't think that nondeductible contributions pay off.
    Here's another way to ask the question: are there readers who would contribute to a nondeductible IRA if they could not convert it to a Roth? If this is not a winner, and if the 10% penalty consumes any benefit you get from the (temporary) NYS tax deduction, then there's not an obvious benefit in making the excess contributions.
  • Roth or Trad IRA rollover?
    Here's a page related to the Michigan Retirement/Pension page that Hank linked to. It focuses specifically on Withholding Taxes.
    At least for Michigan employers, "Every Michigan employer who is required to withhold federal income tax under the Internal Revenue Code must be registered for and withhold Michigan income tax."
    This is the concern I was voicing. Direct Roth rollovers from 403(b)s to Roth IRAs are not subject to mandatory federal withholding. But some employer administrators get this wrong and withhold at the state level anyway, viewing the state withholding as mandatory.
    With respect to whether employer (public or private) pensions (including defined contribution plans) are subject to taxation based on age in Michigan vs. IRA taxation rules, all I can say is: good luck! That looks like a full employment act for Michigan CPAs.
  • Roth or Trad IRA rollover?
    Hi @hank
    Thank you for your added information.
    NOTE: this conversation is not fully in line with this post subject,except to the point of current and/or future taxation regarding the tax status of retirement monies, as to how variations exist within state jurisdictions, aside from whatever personal taxable status may exist at the federal level.
    A few pieces of info from 2012 regarding the "new pension tax" in Michigan. Hank, the below item 1 is part of what did cause confusion, from wording within the new tax code, with some pertinent wording in bold by me.
    --- 1. Payers Subject to the New Withholding Rules, Michigan (note: there was a last minute scramble to provide payers with withholding instructions for the new calendar year 2012, as the Michigan Supreme Court had just ruled on the Constitutional status of taxing pensions for a narrow portion of the population (read, those born between 1946-1952
    )
    Only those subject to Michigan jurisdiction are required to withhold Michigan income tax under the new rules. Other payers need not withhold, even though the payee resides in Michigan.
    The Withholding Guide refers to the pension “administrator” as the person responsible for withholding. If the administrator is registered with Michigan Department of Treasury only for reasons other than withholding, the administrator must register again as a “pension administrator.” It is not entirely clear whether an administrator who administers payments to one person from more than one plan would have to aggregate the payments for withholding purposes. Analogy to federal law would indicate that aggregation is allowed but not required.
    Mandatory Use of the MI W-4P
    As mentioned above, the State of Michigan's current position is that an administrator must withhold at the prescribed rate unless the participant provides different instructions on a MI W-4P. We understand that a number of payers are disregarding that position and are continuing to use their own version of the W-4P.
    Next for item 2, is a short reply to friends and family at the time (2012) asking what the hell is going on with this new pension tax. Do not imply I retain a bias favoring one political party over another. This is not the case. However, at the time; this form of tax legislation was a strange path for a Republican controlled state government. Thus, the words to help identify the pathway of the legislation for those asking the questions of me (as in, who the hell promoted and favored this legislation?).
    --- 2.
    I had several email exchanges with legislators, including the Lt. Governor and the state Treasurer during the beginning of this process.
    The tax came to birth when the Republicans decided to reduce some business taxes.
    The overview:
    1. Reduce some business taxes and companies will hire more people and/or new companies will move to Michigan.
    2. Michigan's budget is required to be balanced.
    3. So, if one is reducing business taxes by $1.6 billion dollars, this needs to be offset from some other source.
    4. Thus, the tax the pensions came to be as a source to recover the lose revenue to the state.
    The legislation was introduced by a Republican, the final passage was supported by enough Republicans, with the exception of a tie vote in the MI senate, with the tie breaking vote being cast by the Lt. Governor and signed by Gov. Snyder.
    The legislation was challenged in court as unconstitutional and eventually traveled to the MI Supreme court for a final decision. The court at the time was Republican dominated. The legislation was passed with a 4-3 vote as not violating the constitution.
    Summary: many republicans were not in favor of this tax, but enough voted in favor to set up the tie breaking vote by the Lt. Governor and of course, favored by Gov. Snyder.
    My main points in email exchanges (my opinions,2011) with legislators from both political parties were:
    1. that whatever amounts would be taken away from retirees in tax, would be monies not spent locally to support those businesses.
    2. the tax was targeted at a specific group (baby boomers) does violate tax code by age discrimination
    3. those voting in favor are targeting their own retired parents and/or grandparents...duh!
    4. a number of Michigan residents will indeed retire to a state that does not tax pensions......this has take place to some extent, so the tax money is forever gone from Michigan, as these "snow birds" stay long enough in another state to claim residence in that state as a taxpayer; although they may return to Michigan during the warmer months. (2019 update, this indeed has taken place in larger numbers; so Michigan has lost this tax base from pension monies)
    This link takes you to the legislation path:
    https://votesmart.org/bill/13363/35098/tax-exemption-and-pension-bill#.XgiijGYyeM_
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------
    Lastly, Hank; wife and I both receive defined pensions from payers not domiciled in Michigan. We have taxes "only" withheld from 1 pension for federal taxes, so as to not "hit" the federal underpayment penalty box at tax time. No Michigan taxes are withheld from either pension. Generally, we pay the remainder of federal and state taxes owed when filing taxes in the next year, without underpayment penalty. As noted in my previous post, Fidelity only asks; for my IRA RMD, as to whether I choose to have any federal or state tax deducted (tell us how much or none).
    Take care,
    Catch