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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 7 Twelve portfolios using NTF network mutual funds and ETF's
    Hi Everyone here,
    Recently I came across Online 7 twelve portfolios &
    got interested due to its Brokers specific Fidelity 7Twelve Portfolio with NTF network funds & Etf's.
    They also have Vanguard or Schwab network portfolios.
    Have you heard or Used The 7Twelve Portfolio before?
    How's Performance & tracking with Fidelity in 2019 to April 2020?
    http://www.7twelveportfolio.com/Downloads/7Twelve-Model-Intro.pdf
    It's by Craig L. Israelsen www.7TwelvePortfolio.com
    and with12 NTF mutual funds, utilized in the 7Twelve design can be index funds or actively managed funds.
    You can build the 7Twelve model in an IRA account, 401(k) account, regular investment account.
    All 12 funds are equally weighted in the “core” 7Twelve model (each with an allocation of 8.33%).
    The equal- weighting is maintained by periodic yearly rebalancing.
    'There are also three “Age Based” versions of the 7Twelve model that progressively reduces the risk of the portfolio.
    Anyone familiar here or have implemented it using Fidelity's NTF funds?
    What Do you think
    Thanks.
    Majick
  • DSEUX / DLEUX
    I must have missed something. What sequential? (What was the sequence?) How much developed foreign? Where more than his wee sliver? Quantify and specify the risk reduction you say is taking place with their addition. Or do you just mean some volatility reduction / smoothing? I found only the 7Twelve stuff of interest, not the other equivocal articles, which actually seemed to mildly make Waggoner's point. What have I missed?
    Also, go to M* and put in TWEIX, OAKIX, and LV. Compare the three from 1994 (max) and then 15y-14-13-10-5-3-1y. Note that only the 01-02-03 start points (= Israelsen) show foreign outperformance. Maybe there are other mfunds or etfs that would make the case better? I somehow doubt it. I guess this too is superficial, though.
  • DSEUX / DLEUX
    Thanks. Kinda weak articles and arguments, seemed to me, except the middle Israelsen one that starts in 01, bad case for US LC.
    But sure for the 7Twelve. He is like Merriman and his Lazys.
    Not sure how much deeper most need to go than this, though (Waggoner updated, from 2015):
    ... do international funds help your portfolio? In terms of return, it's hard to argue that they have, at least within most investors' experience. The past 25 years, large-cap U.S. funds have gained an average 691%, vs. 338% for international funds. U.S. funds have beaten international funds the past five, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years.
    You could argue that European stocks are cheap, relative to U.S. stocks, which is quite true. But then again, they nearly always are, because they don't grow as rapidly. You could also argue that there are more foreign companies than there are U.S. companies, and that investing in them gives you broader market exposure. That's also true. Then again, companies in the S&P 500 get 46.2% of their earnings from overseas, and that's enough international exposure for anyone.
    Why have U.S. investors rushed to international funds? In part because much of U.S. mutual fund purchases are controlled by financial advisers, and conventional wisdom is that a stock portfolio should have about 20% of its assets in international stocks. As of the end of November, about 25% of all garden-variety mutual funds were in international stocks, up from about 8.6% in 2000. Advisers have been doing their jobs.

    Israelsen is one of those advisers, and his 01-15 data do look compelling. But who do you know (and who here?) who would want the same small amount in US LC as in REIT, cash, commodities, or NR?
    Much less stick with it.
    Not I.
    And his is really an arg for very broad diversification, not for foreign, which is 17% of total (and note that that total = 93% of egg) and half of that foreign is EM.
    (Trying to think what EM, NR, and commod vehicles there were in 2001.)
  • DSEUX / DLEUX
    @davidrmoran,
    I reread the Waggoner Article, and I think that one must dig a little deeper than he does.
    Ferri's Take
    Israelsen's Quantitative View (1970-2006)
    Israelsen's Analysis 2001-2015

    Forbes Article on the Israelsen Model
    From the Israelsen data, I'm inclined to believe that it is beneficial to own foreign developed and EM equities.
    Kevin
  • Believing what Isn’t So
    I don't think any "distinguished MFO'er" did not appreciate the advantages of an allocation plan, or that it should have equally weighted components.
    The problem he might have had is why does someone have to open a 7Twelve gas station, when we already have 7Eleven?
    Typically at 6Fifteen every Thursday evening he fills gas, drives around a bit and is safely in bed by 8Thirty. All numbers his life in work like a charm. Then 7Twelve comes along and throws a spanner in the works and he starts wondering if the person who's suggesting 7Twelve is a 4Twenty. That's the issue.
    I'll see if Double07 is available to help crack this case...Thanks for the Four-1-1. 4Twenty is not my style...much prefer 6packs.
  • Believing what Isn’t So
    I don't think any "distinguished MFO'er" did not appreciate the advantages of an allocation plan, or that it should have equally weighted components.
    The problem he might have had is why does someone have to open a 7Twelve gas station, when we already have 7Eleven?
    Typically at 6Fifteen every Thursday evening he fills gas, drives around a bit and is safely in bed by 8Thirty. All numbers his life in work like a charm. Then 7Twelve comes along and throws a spanner in the works and he starts wondering if the person who's suggesting 7Twelve is a 4Twenty. That's the issue.
  • The 7Twelve fund Portfolio
    @bee. It is not about him being a quack. It is about us swallowing what he is doling. I still don't see ANYTHING about his 7Twelve portfolio. If he is simply going to use past performance of some allocation and use percentage returns, then his having a PhD, and me not having one with my 6Fifteen portfolio gives Israelsen no credibility. Furthermore I'm not misspelling my last name :P
  • The 7Twelve fund Portfolio
    From Link:
    "Unlike a traditional two-asset 60/40 balanced fund, the 7Twelve balanced strategy utilizes multiple asset classes to enhance performance and reduce risk.
    image
    The 7 of 7Twelve represents the suggested number of asset classes to include in your portfolio. The Twelve represents the 12 separate mutual funds or exchange traded products to fully represent the 7 asset classes in your 7Twelve portfolio. Our portfolio has approximately a 65/35 allocation: approximately 65% of the portfolio is invested in equity and diversifying assets and about 35% invested in bonds and cash."

    image
    Link:
    7Twelve-Model-Intro
  • Process and Luck over Outcome
    Hi rjb112,
    Thank you for the kind words and your trust in asking help from me. I am hesitant that I can profitably satisfy your request..
    I struggle with giving specific investment advice. Please know that I am an amateur in the investment jungle. I truly believe that a number of MFO members are far more qualified than I am to give such advice. It has been my consistent policy not to make specific portfolio recommendations here at MFO and elsewhere. I fear I might do more harm than good.
    There is another reason that giving and accepting internet advice is a dangerous thing. That task requires a careful and continuous interchange between the parties involved. That’s difficult to do well with only e-mail exchanges.
    Direct contact with professional advisors could be useful. An advisor who uses Index products to implement his approach might serve your needs. There are just too many variables to integrate into final decisions when exchanging posts on the internet.
    Since I’m a self-taught investor my financial education has developed in a haphazard manner. Therefore, there are likely some holes in my knowledge base that could compromise the performance of my portfolio as well as any that I choose to help construct with others.
    Therefore, I choose to abstain. But I have no reservations about suggesting generic sources and approaches.
    For example, I do admire some of the Index portfolios that have been documented by Paul Farrell in his Lazy-Man portfolios. I am especially drawn to several portfolios because they include elements that academic and industry research suggests can modestly increase expected returns while simultaneously reducing portfolio volatility. These portfolios have been frequently discussed on MFO, but here is the Link to Farrell’s ongoing scorekeeping:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/lazyportfolio
    I am attracted to David Swensen’s Yale U’s Unconventional portfolio. It seems to touch most of the necessary bases with a small number of Index products. Here is the sub-link that presents Swensen’s Index choices:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/lazyportfolio
    I also like Bill Bernstein’s slightly more complex Smart Money portfolio as follows:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/lazyportfolio/portfolio/bernsteins-smart-money
    Using the Farrell Lazy portfolios as a point of departure you get to pick from a bunch of respectable options. I know you recognize that this listing gets you to a reasonable starting line. Adjustments in holdings and percentages should be made to accommodate your special circumstances: Your age, wealth, education, experience, risk profile, and end objectives.
    Along that line of thought, I have been recently introduced to some mutual fund research conducted by Professor Craig Israelsen. He has expanded his work to formulate an Index-based fund strategy that exploits study findings. For example his portfolios are age dependent. His work is called the 7twelve approach.
    The 7twelve approach uses 12 fund groups to execute 7 fund asset classes. Eight diversifying fund groups are assigned to 4 equity classes while four fund groups flush out 3 fixed income classes. Here is a Link to this attractive portfolio organizational option:
    http://www.7twelveportfolio.com/Downloads/7Twelve-Model-Intro.pdf
    I suggest you explore the Lazy and the 7twelve candidate portfolio options. These might satisfy your requirements.
    Please understand that I still own a substantial mix of active and passive funds (50/50 at this juncture). I do plan to convert to a more passive portfolio (probably like a 20/80 mix) within the next year. That’s a task that awaits execution.
    At this juncture, I directly own no gold products, but I just might diversify a little more following general guidelines extracted from the references that I provided..
    By now you realize that I am a plain vanilla, meat and potatoes type investor. I believe that simplicity works best, and that complexity kills. My portfolio reflects that philosophy. It works for me; it might not be your cup of tea. This thinking goes a long way to explain my reluctance to participate in specific mutual fund recommendations.
    Other very qualified MFO Board participations will enthusiastically fill my void.
    Good Luck and Best Wishes.