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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • S&P 500 Concentration Risk
    Some in the financial industry warn of excessive concentration in the S&P 500 which may elevate risks
    to investors. Recent research by Mark Kritzman, chief executive of Windham Capital Management,
    and David Turkington, head of State Street Associates concludes you should not diversify out of
    an S&P 500 or total stock market fund to reduce concentration risk.
    “'Taking risk off the table every time the market gets more concentrated would have been
    very harmful historically,' Kritzman tells me. 'It may help you avoid some fraction of the selloffs,
    but you incur a huge opportunity cost in losing out on the run-ups.'”
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-big-scary-myth-stalking-the-stock-market/ar-AA1WhMcI
  • Mutual Fund Classes of ETFs
    The only OEF share class is Institutional.
    Institutional Class Shares are available only to institutional investors and certain broker dealers and financial institutions that have entered into appropriate arrangements with the Fund. These arrangements are generally limited to discretionary managed, asset allocation, eligible retirement plan or wrap products offered by broker-dealers and financial institutions.
    Prospectus:
    https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/831114/000139834426002657/fp0097506-1_485bposixbrl.htm
    The ER of 0.15% is the same as the ETF's. Generally if an OEF share class doesn't cost more than an ETF share class, and if I have access to the OEF class, I prefer it. I know that I will have paid exactly what the share is worth at 4PM. No intraday fluctuations, no tracking errors. And no SEC section 31 fee when selling (though that's currently $0.00).
    Unlike Vanguard funds where one can convert OEF shares into ETF shares (but not the other way around), one will not be able to convert between share classes of this fund.
  • ★ Top US medical body to review vaccine effectiveness as government ‘abdicates responsibility’
    Unfortunately, as @sma3's letters from last year make clear, this is nothing new. Though initial actions were directed more internationally, the anti-vaccine chickens are coming home to roost.
    The Trump administration intends to terminate the United States’ financial support for Gavi, the organization that has helped purchase critical vaccines for children in developing countries, saving millions of lives over the past quarter century, and to significantly scale back support for efforts to combat malaria, one of the biggest killers globally.
    ...
    Gavi is estimated to have saved the lives of 19 million children since it was set up 25 years ago. The United States contributes 13 percent of its budget.
    NYTimes, March 25, 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/26/health/usaid-cuts-gavi-bird-flu.html
    US has wasted hundreds of thousands of vaccines meant for Africa, health officials there say
    The U.S. has sent 91,000 out of the more than 1 million the Biden administration pledged, and 220,000 mpox vaccine doses have enough shelf life to ship if the Trump administration signs off, according to an Africa CDC spokesperson.
    The loss of the mpox shots comes after President Donald Trump cut back foreign aid programs and closed the U.S. Agency for International Development, which administered most of them.
    Congress this week passed a bill requested by Trump rescinding hundreds of millions of dollars in global health funding.
    Politico, July 17, 2025
    https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/17/us-has-wasted-hundreds-of-thousands-of-vaccines-meant-for-africa-health-officials-there-say-00460290
    On a personal note, I've been dealing with a mild bout of RSV over the past week. Except for one day, I've been pretty functional. My PCP attributes that to my having gotten an RSV vaccine. Like Covid vaccines, it may not give complete protection but does make the illness much less severe.
  • China continues to reduce holdings of U.S. Treasuries
    China is actively reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, continuing a long-term, multi-year trend driven by a strategy to diversify foreign reserves and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. As of early 2026, China has been a net seller for nine straight months, reducing its holdings to the lowest level since 2008.
    Key Details on China's Treasury Reduction:
    Declining Position: Once the largest foreign holder, China has fallen to the third-largest creditor behind Japan and the United Kingdom.
    Recent Sales: Reports in February 2026 indicate Chinese regulators instructed banks and financial institutions to curb their exposure to U.S. debt, citing high concentration risk and market volatility.
    Total Holdings: China's holdings dropped to approximately $683 billion as of November 2025, continuing a steady decline from its peak.
    Motivation: The reduction is part of a broader "de-dollarization" push to diversify into other assets, such as gold, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic strategies.
    While some of these sales might represent a transfer of assets to other custodians (such as in Belgium), the overall trend indicates a conscious effort to move away from, or at least hedge against, U.S. government debt.
    Major holders of U.S.T.'s, November, 2025
  • Hesgeth let Customs and Border Protection fire anti-drone laser near El Paso
    It's a stretch, but surely the arbitrary closure of El Paso's airport for ten days would have financial repercussions.
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The New York Times:
    Federal Aviation Administration officials said privately that the agency did not have enough time or information to assess the technology’s risk to commercial aircraft, according to people briefed on the situation.
    Federal Aviation Administration officials were forced to close El Paso’s airspace late Tuesday after the Defense Department decided to use new anti-drone technology without giving aviation officials ample time to assess the risks to commercial airlines, according to four people briefed on the situation.
    Those accounts, offered on the condition of anonymity because the officials were not authorized to comment publicly, challenge the official explanation from the Trump administration. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, along with representatives for the White House and the Pentagon, insisted on Wednesday that a sudden incursion of drones from Mexican drug cartels had necessitated a military response, which prompted the F.A.A. to close the airspace.
    The military has been developing high-energy laser technology to intercept and destroy drones, which the Trump administration has said are used by Mexican cartels to track Border Patrol agents and smuggle drugs into the United States. According to the people briefed on the situation, El Paso’s airspace was shut down when the Defense Department, operating out of Fort Bliss, a nearby Army base, decided to mobilize that new technology over the F.A.A.’s objections.
    According to two of the people briefed on the situation, military officials deployed that technology earlier this week against what they thought was a cartel drone, but which turned out to be a party balloon. That operation was carried out without proper coordination with the F.A.A., the people said.
    According to the four people briefed on the matter, at the time F.A.A. officials closed the airspace, the agency had not yet completed a safety assessment of the risks the new technology could pose to other aircraft. Two of the people added that F.A.A. officials had warned the Pentagon that if they were not given sufficient time and information to conduct their review, they would have no choice but to shut down the nearby airspace.
    Aviation and military officials had planned to meet on Feb. 20 to discuss the potential implications, three of the people said. But when the military decided to act sooner, without moving up that meeting, F.A.A. officials responded by imposing a rare, 10-day closure of the surrounding airspace up to 18,000 feet, out of concern for the safety of other aircraft in the region, citing “special security reasons.”
    The F.A.A. did not respond to requests for comment about the circumstances that led to the airspace closure, and a Pentagon spokesman repeated the military’s assertion that it had responded to a drone incursion.
    A senior administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to address the dispute, challenged the claim of a failure of communication, saying that the Pentagon and the Department of Transportation had been coordinating with the aviation agency for months and that it had been assured that there was no threat to commercial air travel.
    On Wednesday, many officials questioned why a particular drone incursion would have prompted such a sweeping response from the F.A.A. “There have been drone incursions from Mexico going back to as long as drones existed,” Representative Veronica Escobar, the Texas Democrat representing El Paso in Congress, said at a news conference. “This is not unusual, and there was nothing extraordinary about any drone incursion into the U.S. that I’m aware of.”
    Comment:   "there was nothing extraordinary about any drone incursion".
    • The use of the high-powered laser equipment wasn't "extraordinary??

    The F.A.A. and the Transportation Department did not offer an explanation as to why the airspace over El Paso was initially closed for 10 days. That is far longer than closures that are typical for any individual drone incursion, and not a standard length of time for an F.A.A. closure, according to people familiar with the protocols.
    Comments:   "The F.A.A. and the Transportation Department did not offer an explanation as to why the airspace over El Paso was initially closed for 10 days."
    • Maybe because the Defense Department had used the new laser equipment 10 days before the scheduled meeting to sort it out with the FAA???
    The FAA "10-day" closure notice evidently got the attention of whatever Trump uses for "management": the closure was cancelled after a few hours.
    I've been very critical of the FAA at times, but I submit that they decided to take no chances that they would be blamed if any incident occurred due to the military operations. And given the caliber of Hesgeth and other Trump administration officials I don't blame them one bit.
    To be fair, Hesgeth's people can take credit for destroying the "party balloon."

    Note: Text emphasis was added to the NYTimes report.
  • Wealth Manager Stocks Sink as Traders Flee Next AI Casualty
    Yahoo Link (Originally from Bloomberg)
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wealth-manager-stocks-sink-ai-172526640.html
    I'm wondering what will be left to invest in after AI has taken its toll? In search of answers, I asked AI to list 50 industries likely to lose business to AI. Here's the list generated at lightening speed:
    Here are 50 industries most impacted or disrupted by AI, as identified by DigitalDefynd Education and corroborated by other analyses:
    Manufacturing (due to industrial robots and AI-driven quality assurance)
    Retail Trade (self-checkout, AI inventory, chatbots)
    Transportation & Logistics (autonomous vehicles, drones, route optimization)
    Banking, Financial Services, and Insurance (BFSI) (fraud detection, robo-advisors, transaction processing)
    Customer Service (AI chatbots handling 80% of routine interactions)
    Healthcare Administration (billing, coding, scheduling automation)
    Legal Services (document review, legal research)
    Marketing & Advertising (AI-driven content creation, targeting)
    Education (instructional content, grading, tutoring)
    Journalism & News Reporting (automated news writing)
    Writing & Authoring (content creation, copywriting)
    Translation & Interpreting (AI language models)
    Data Entry & Clerical Work (automated data processing)
    Bookkeeping & Accounting (AI-driven financial reporting)
    Human Resources (resume screening, candidate matching)
    Real Estate, Rental & Leasing (property listings, virtual tours)
    Wholesale Trade (inventory management, forecasting)
    Telecommunications (automated customer support)
    Public Relations (content drafting, media monitoring)
    Technical Writing (manuals, documentation)
    Proofreading & Copy Editing (AI grammar and style checks)
    Market Research (data analysis, trend prediction)
    Archiving & Records Management (digital cataloging)
    Web Development (AI-generated code)
    Graphic Design (AI image generation)
    Music Production (AI composition, mixing)
    Film & Video Production (scriptwriting, editing)
    Photography (AI-generated images)
    Fashion Design (AI pattern generation)
    Travel & Tourism (booking, itinerary planning)
    Event Planning (logistics, vendor coordination)
    Insurance Underwriting (risk assessment)
    Supply Chain Management (forecasting, optimization)
    Retail Banking (customer service, loan processing)
    Compliance & Risk Management (regulatory monitoring)
    Corporate Training (e-learning content)
    Software Development (code generation, testing)
    Public Safety Telecommunications (call handling)
    Library Science (cataloging, reference services)
    Political Science & Research (data analysis, reporting)
    Economics Research (forecasting, modeling)
    Urban Planning (data-driven simulations)
    Agriculture (precision farming, crop monitoring)
    Mining & Quarrying (automated equipment)
    Oil & Gas Extraction (predictive maintenance)
    Construction (project planning, safety monitoring)
    Utilities & Energy (grid management, predictive maintenance)
    Government Services (administrative tasks, citizen support)
  • 3x Mag-7, anyone?
    "Can one bet on the min/hr/day outcomes on Draftkings or similar?"
    Yes @Mark. I looked this up for @Derf this morning (re different thread) with a Google AI query. DraftKings now facilitates betting on investing in financial assets:
    "DraftKings has introduced 'DraftKings Predictions,' a specialized platform allowing users to trade contracts on financial, entertainment, and sports events in 38 states, as reported in late 2025. This app functions like a prediction market, enabling users to take positions on financial outcomes rather than traditional stock market investing. The app allows users to trade yes/no contracts on real-world financial and sports outcomes. These events contracts are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), not as traditional gambling, allowing for broader availability in states without legalized sports betting."
    I'm waiting to learn how I can transfer my IRAs to DraftKings. Hopefully in time for the next Super Bowl. :)
  • The next Tulip or AI run-up?!
    @Derf - Have you considered placing a wager on rare earth at DraftKings? (From Google's AI):
    "DraftKings has introduced 'DraftKings Predictions,' a specialized platform allowing users to trade contracts on financial, entertainment, and sports events in 38 states, as reported in late 2025. This app functions like a prediction market, enabling users to take positions on financial outcomes rather than traditional stock market investing. The app allows users to trade yes/no contracts on real-world financial and sports outcomes. These events contracts are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), not as traditional gambling, allowing for broader availability in states without legalized sports betting."
    No word yet on how soon one might transfer their retirement accounts to DraftKings. Rest assured they're working on it.
  • Cohen & Steers Future of Energy Fund, Inc. reorganization into an ETF
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1580956/000119312526042013/d71792d497.htm
    497 1 d71792d497.htm 497
    COHEN & STEERS FUTURE OF ENERGY FUND, INC.
    CLASS A (MLOAX), CLASS C (MLOCX), CLASS F (MLOFX), CLASS I (MLOIX),
    CLASS R (MLORX) AND CLASS Z (MLOZX) SHARES
    Supplement dated February 9, 2026 to
    Summary Prospectus dated April 1, 2025,
    Prospectus dated April 1, 2025, as supplemented on August 29, 2025
    and Statement of Additional Information dated September 1, 2025
    At a meeting held on February 6, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Cohen & Steers Future of Energy Fund, Inc. (the “Fund”) agreed to consider in March 2026 the conversion of the Fund to a newly created exchange-traded fund (the “ETF”) (the “Conversion”). If approved by the Board, the Conversion is currently expected to occur during the second or third quarter of 2026.
    It is anticipated that after the Conversion, the ETF will maintain an identical investment strategy, continue to be managed by the same portfolio management team, and have the same investment adviser and subadvisors as the Fund.
    Cohen & Steers Capital Management, Inc. (“CSCM”), the investment adviser to the Fund, is communicating the proposed plans prior to Board approval in order to provide shareholders with ample notice of the proposed Conversion and allow them time to engage with CSCM and/or their financial advisors on the implications of the proposed Conversion, including the need for shareholders to have a brokerage account that can hold ETF shares prior to the Conversion.
    The Fund anticipates that, if the Board approves the Conversion, on a date to be determined and communicated to shareholders thereafter, it will waive any CDSCs or other sales charges and discontinue charging distribution (12b-1) fees. It is possible that the Conversion will not be approved or will not occur for other reasons, in which case, the changes described herein would not take effect.
    The Conversion generally would consist of (1) the transfer of the Fund’s assets, subject to its liabilities, to the ETF for shares of the ETF and (2) the distribution of ETF shares to Fund shareholders in complete liquidation of the Fund. If approved by the Board, no shareholder approval of the Conversion will be required. Prior to the Conversion, existing Fund shareholders will receive a combined information statement/prospectus describing in detail both the Conversion and the surviving ETF and summarizing the Board’s considerations in approving the Conversion.
    When considering the Conversion, the Board, including the Directors not deemed to be “interested persons” of the Fund pursuant to Section 2(a)(19) of the Investment Company Act of 1940 will need to determine whether the Conversion is in the best interests of the Fund and that the Conversion will not dilute the interests of the Fund’s shareholders.
    The ETF has not commenced investment operations, and its shares are not currently available to the public nor approved for listing on any exchange. Following the Conversion, it is expected that the ETF’s shares will be offered to the public and traded on an exchange.
    It is anticipated that the Conversion will qualify as a tax-free reorganization for federal income tax purposes and that shareholders will not recognize any gain or loss on the exchange of their Fund shares for ETF shares in connection with the Conversion, except to the extent that they receive cash from the Fund in connection with the Conversion (such as cash received from the liquidation of any fractional Fund shares held by a shareholder prior to the Conversion). Additionally, it is currently expected that Fund shareholders who do not have a brokerage account that can hold ETF shares at the time of the Conversion will not receive ETF shares in connection with the Conversion and will, instead, receive cash equal in value to the aggregate net asset value of Fund shares held on the closing date of the Conversion. Such liquidation and receipt of cash may be a taxable event.
    If the Conversion is approved by the Board, an information statement/prospectus that will be included in a registration statement on Form N-14 will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). After the registration statement is filed with the SEC, it may be amended or withdrawn and the information statement/prospectus will not be distributed to shareholders unless and until the registration statement is declared effective by the SEC. Investors are urged to read the materials and any other relevant documents when they become available because they will contain important information about the Conversion. After they are filed, free copies of the materials will be available on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov, on www.cohenandsteers.com or by calling (800) 330-7348.
    This communication is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer of any securities for sale. No offers of securities will be made except pursuant to a prospectus meeting the requirements of Section 10 of the Securities Act of 1933.
    PLEASE REATAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR YOUR RECORDS
    FOESPRO – 02.26
  • Christine Benz - Good Enough Financial Plan & Portfolio
    Benz suggests focusing more time setting financial goals and less micromanaging your investments.
    Save early and often in the short term... invest for the long term.
    Chrisitine Benz suggest:
    - Consider Target Date Funds
    - Keep Expenses Low - Under .5%
    - Auto Contribute... Auto re-balance
    - Hold Tax Efficient Investments in Taxable Accounts...Index Funds, Tax Free Munis, some individual Stocks
    - Match your many financial goals to your investment accounts
    - Determine your withdrawal strategy: when will SS be taken (Early, Normal, late), what will be your large one time expenses in retirement (weddings, healthcare events, vehicles, home purchase or renovation, etc), what are your financial goals in retirement (downsize home, relocate, travel,etc.)
    Sometimes perfection really is the enemy of the good. Christine Benz, Morningstar’s personal finance and retirement guru, has come up with some “good enough” solutions for portfolios and financial plans that work well for most of us.


    and,

  • MSFT and AMZN

    amzn shareholders had~$80m of their money spent on the movie , and $25m went directly to trump's 2nd financial chain immigrant.
    image
  • February issue is live
    The February issue of Mutual Fund Observer is live. With so little to keep your attention this weekend, we thought we’d launch on a Friday evening!
    I’m sometimes struck by our selective recall. Shakespeare’s Richard III opens with “Now is the winter of our discontent” (things suck, I nod), which everyone recalls. Somehow, the optimistic second line “made glorious summer by this sun of York” (better times are coming) gets missed.
    We’re keeping that hopeful thought for us all.
    Highlights of this month’s Observer include a short memorial to Doug Ramsey, CIO of the Leuthold Group, who passed away unexpectedly at the end of January. Individual pieces include:
    Our colleague Lynn Bolin shares The One Uncorrelated Portfolio to Rule Them All by Slaying Inflation and Market Corrections, tackles the challenge of building a portfolio that can weather both inflation and market corrections by searching through hundreds of alternative funds for options that zig when others zag. His "Grins and Giggles Portfolio" minimizes correlation between holdings over the past six years, while his "Last Laugh Portfolio" achieves 8.3% annualized returns with a maximum drawdown of just -6.3% over ten years. The secret? Read on!
    In Perpetual Motion Income Machine, Lynn pursues the question, can you build an income portfolio that generates steady distributions while beating inflation? Lynn believes you can, targeting 7% minimum returns to cover 4% withdrawals plus 3% capital appreciation. He divides nearly 100 income funds into four groups based on capital appreciation and yield, identifying funds with high risk-adjusted yields and consistent distributions. The key insight: balance funds that fluctuate with interest rate cycles against those tied to stock market cycles to reduce sequence-of-return risk.
    Given our ongoing interest in “quality” investing, we offer Quality Worked in 2025, and failed spectacularly, which looks at what “quality” investors did, and didn’t accomplish in 2025, and how to think about them in the years ahead.
    Our A Letter to Layla is directed to the young trainer who is trying to coax Chip and me into being fit. (I’m all about dead bugs.) Layla admitted that she would like to learn a bit about mutual fund investment so she can start moving in a healthy financial direction. This is my attempt to think about investing strategies for folks of Layla’s age – or my son Will’s – from the perspective of her work as a trainer.
    The Indolent Portfolio, 2025, is the latest installation in my annual portfolio disclosure. It offers suggestions for how to build a low-maintenance portfolio and a three-fund alternative to my admittedly sprawling collections. (PS, the portfolio itself did just fine last year: stable, cash-rich, and up 14%.)
    Our colleague The Shadow shares a wealth of industry news and foolishness, as ever, in Briefly Noted.
    And, as ever, we share it all in the lovely magazine layout https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/issue/february-2026/ and the inexplicably popular long-scroll version https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2026/2/.
  • Sell America Is the New Trade on Wall Street
    Note that the second largest economy to the U.S. is China.
    Why would one feel "safer" there than at home?
    Might be like leaping out of the kettle into the fire.
    The Chinese government has a history of capricious industry interference (e.g., tech, education).
    The communist government prioritizes its own goals which may not yield optimal financial results.
    Financial reporting veracity for Chinese companies has been repeatedly questioned.
    Profits for U.S. investors in China were negligible after the country was admitted
    to the WTO despite a subsequent considerable increase in their GDP.
    I won't get into all of China's unscrupulous activities against the U.S.—suffice to say
    the country's leaders would celebrate if the U.S. failed economically, politically, or militarily.
    I would be comfortable with zero exposure to Chinese markets regardless of the return potential.
    Edit/Add: Recently, one of my foreign equity funds had 7.8% allocated to China¹
    while my other foreign equity fund had no exposure to Chinese equities².
    ¹ Hong Kong equities: 2.10%
    ² Hong Kong equities: 4.7%
  • SpaceX trying to get into indexes sooner than usual
    Is Elon Musk Giving Index Funds FOMO - Spencer Jakab, WSJ
    "Membership Has Its Privileges

    Buying and holding index funds is one of the smartest things investors can do, but it’s hard. It’s even harder if they fear they’re missing out.

    Owning pieces of America’s largest companies via an S&P 500 fund isn’t exactly the same thing as owning “the market” because some rising stars haven’t qualified for membership yet. When it looks like they’re about to join, those shares can get a turbo boost right before index funds are forced to buy. Those rallies often cool after inclusion.

    It’s a small, invisible drag on returns most of the time because those rising stars usually aren’t huge weights in the index. Occasionally one is by the time it qualifies.

    With Elon Musk’s SpaceX preparing for the biggest initial public offering in history, The Wall Street Journal reported this week that its advisers are pushing to fast-track the index-inclusion process. The popular Nasdaq-100 Index might be amenable. The big prize would be using index-provider FOMO to get the S&P 500 to tweak its rules.

    The index companies wouldn’t be doing passive investors a favor, but they could be doing Musk and other insiders one. Inclusion would make it easier to sell the IPO and insider shares to the public at a potentially robust price.

    Musk’s existing big public company, Tesla, is a classic example of forgone gains. It had a market capitalization of about $2 billion at the time of its 2010 IPO, yet failed to qualify for the S&P 500 until 2020 when it could show enough profits.

    Tesla was the largest-ever addition to the index at the time, at about $600 billion. But investors had anticipated the wave of buying that would result and bid the stock up 250% in the six months before its S&P 500 inclusion. Then the shares fell 10% during their first six months as one of the top weights in the world’s most widely owned index funds.

    A similar pattern has repeated for other hot companies. Google (now Alphabet) returned seven times as much in the six months prior to inclusion as during the following six. Netflix’s return was double.

    Recent additions Robinhood and AppLovin rallied 182% and 105% before joining the S&P 500 in September, respectively. Each is down by 42% since then.

    Why push to fast-track the process for SpaceX? Because membership has its privileges when you need to sell huge quantities of stock.

    It could spare index-fund investors the frustration of watching SpaceX rally before they own it, but that won’t make it any cheaper once they do.

    And, with the typical insider seller being restricted from selling stock for a number of months, the end of their “lockup period” might coincide with the shares already being owned by index funds. Eager sellers and forced buyers who don’t even read the company’s financial statements are a bad combination.

    SpaceX could boldly go where no stock has gone before. Getting there at warp speed isn’t really necessary."
  • Another financial masterpiece: $16 Billion Hudson River Tunnel Halted unless renamed for Trump
    Following are edited excerpts from a current report in The New York Times:
    Nearly all of the work was scheduled to stop on Friday unless federal officials agreed to restore funding that had been halted last year or a court ordered them to.
    Workers were winding down their construction activity on the biggest transportation infrastructure project in the nation as the Trump administration’s prolonged suspension of its funding was scheduled to bring work to a halt on Friday. The project, known as Gateway, centers on a new $16 billion rail tunnel under the Hudson River between New York City and New Jersey. Nearly 1,000 people have been working at sites on both sides of the Hudson and in the river, and more than $1 billion has already been spent, according to the project’s planners, the Gateway Development Commission.
    Nearly all of that work was scheduled to stop on Friday unless federal officials agreed to restore Gateway’s funding or a court ordered them to. The commission sued the government for breach of contract in a federal court in Washington on Monday, contending that it was owed more than $200 million in expenses that had not been reimbursed. The states of New York and New Jersey filed a separate suit in federal court in Manhattan this week.
    “We’re just in shutdown mode,” said a shop steward of the Laborers’ Union, as he stood on a hushed construction site on the western edge of Manhattan on Thursday afternoon, surrounded by fellow workers who feared they could be out of work by Saturday. The workers were preparing for a pause of unpredictable duration, so they would not remove the cranes and other equipment from the sites just yet.
    Some of the workers facing layoffs were working on barges in the ice-filled Hudson River, driving hollow steel cylinders called “king piles” into the river’s bottom, but at least a few of them would have to remain, to protect the work that has been completed and to steer ships away from it.
    Federal transportation officials had said that the suspension would last until a review of the project’s contracts for compliance with new policies regarding diversity could be completed. The Gateway Development Commission said it had responded to all of the transportation department’s requests and that all of its contracts with disadvantaged businesses had been “appropriately certified.”
    Elected officials from New York and New Jersey held out hope that the Trump administration would relent before the end of the week. The White House gave a different reason for the prolonged suspension in a statement last month, pinning responsibility on Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York and other Democrats for refusing to negotiate and alluding to their stances on immigration policies.

    Comment:   The king of casino bankruptcies is in charge of our country. Your tax dollars at work. Good luck on that.
    See Below: Money would be released if the facilities named in Trump’s "honor"-
  • The Buffett Indicator - A Big Red Flag Warning
    • Do you believe that the present administration has the slightest idea where their various interests and beliefs are going to take the general economy?   @Mark, quoting Paul Krugman in another post:
    "ETTD: everything Trump touches dies."
    @JD_co, in another post, notes that: "A loser with 6 bankruptcies who has left a trail of destruction in his wake at every turn is steering us off a cliff."
    • Do you believe that anyone really has any idea where the evolution of AI is going to take the general economy?
    • Is your present financial situation such that you could be comfortable with it's present value?
    • Is your present financial situation such that it would be reasonably resistant to a major financial decline?
    • If not, is there a value that would be acceptable if you were to lock in some percentage of your present gains?
  • Some notes from Paul Krugman on crypto
    "I don’t normally post in the evening, but I thought I’d offer three quick notes on an … interesting day in the crypto market.
    First, today’s price action shouldn’t change your view about Bitcoin’s usefulness or lack thereof. If, like me, you consider the whole thing a delusion — BTC isn’t a medium of exchange, nor is it a reliable store of value — then you already knew that and the fact that we seem to be having a Wile E. Coyote moment isn’t information about the fundamentals. (There are no fundamentals.) If you have some story about why this aging financial innovation is actually useful — do tell — you should HODL through the panic.
    Incidentally, some readers insisted that HODL stands for “hold on for dear life.” No, it doesn’t. That’s a retcon intended to make it sound more respectable. The term comes from a post on a crypto message board from an investor so panicked that he misspelled HOLD. See link in this morning’s post.
    Second, the fact that BTC is now lower than it was before the 2024 election is significant in two ways. It shows the limits of political favor — all the boasts about making American a crypto superpower, all the deregulatory talk and pardons for cryptocriminals, in the end couldn’t defy gravity.
    But it also means that everyone who bought Bitcoin in the belief that Trump would make Bitcoin greater than ever has lost money, in many cases a lot of money. So this is another case of ETTD: everything Trump touches dies.
    Finally, this crash may have political consequences. At least some young men supported Trump because they believed that he would enhance their crypto investments, and have remained favorable because he seemed to be delivering. I don’t know how many bitterly disillusioned bros there will be now, but there will be some.
    And in general the whole “Say what you like about Trump, but markets are up” mindset must be under severe strain.
    Are we having fun yet?"
  • Precious Metals
    A tale of two stories. Any resemblance to another MFO poster is strictly on purpose.
    For the MFO "audience"-
    • Using my own fantastically accurate financial prediction formulation developed by my incredible STEM-quality brain I sold all of my silver position at the very high and took immense profits before the current market decline.
    For myself-
    Well, I still own my silver position, and it's way down from the "high", but what the hell, it's only a 7k purchase now down to 8.5k, so I'll just have to see what happens next.
  • Major Global and U.S. etf categories numbers,,,,,erratic markets, Jan. 29/30
    A tale of two stories. Any resemblance to another MFO poster is strictly on purpose.
    For the MFO "audience"-
    • Using my own fantastically accurate financial prediction formulation developed by my incredible STEM-quality brain I sold all of my silver position at the very high and took immense profits before the current market decline.
    For myself-
    Well, I still own my silver position, and it's way down from the "high", but what the hell, it's only a 7k purchase now down to 8.5k, so I'll just have to see what happens next.
  • Layoffs 2026
    Glad that you asked, I was about to search for that!
    https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/05/economy/us-jobs-data-layoffs-hiring#:~:text=Layoff announcements hit an unsavory milestone in January&text=The Spheres at Amazon headquarters in Seattle on January 29, 2026.&text=About 40% of January's layoff,and 30,000 job cuts, respectively.
    "About 40% of January’s layoff announcements can be tied to two firms: Amazon and UPS, which outlined plans for 16,000 and 30,000 job cuts, respectively. UPS’s plans to cut up to 30,000 jobs were tied to its ongoing wind-down of its delivery arrangement with Amazon, executives for the shipping giant said last week during an earnings call.
    The January layoff announcements tracked by Challenger were limited to five industries – transportation, technology, health care and health products, chemical and financial, according to the report."