Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    Delivered food? Never. Many years ago, I recall getting into Louisville (Galt House, downtown) way too late in the evening. I had to walk over the Ohio River Bridge in the freezing cold just to get some munchies. Everything was already closed in the city. The 7-11 type place at the other side of the bridge in Indiana was open all night. I just about froze and died. But there was no Door Dash or any sort of animal like that, back then.
    My Galt House room, I remember, was appointed like a French whorehouse. Holy Jaypers.
    https://galthouse.com/our-hotel/
  • Six Global Balanced Funds That Make Sense for This Market
    RMDs, I'm sure you intended. Those are gonna hurt, but the $$$ can be reinvested in taxable. 2 more years to age 73. Born in '54. No escaping it. Death, taxes, winter. Well, not much winter here. Sometimes, however....
    Yeah. Minimum required distributions. :D
    Whatever they're called, it won't be a giant event for us.
  • Six Global Balanced Funds That Make Sense for This Market
    Have you attempted to ease the RMDs with backdoor Roth conversions?
    *********************
    Backdoor Roth is only for $7K / $8k new contributions in 2025, $7.5K / $8.6K in 2026. That too requires clean T-IRA (i.e. without deductible/pretax contributions).
    But to reduce future RMDs, consider QCDs from T-IRA and regular Roth Conversions from T-IRA and/or 401k/403b.
    Hardly anyone uses MRD now. The standard usage now is RMD
    .
    *************************
    *************************
    I have been reducing future RMDs in a back-handed way, withdrawing X amount from the T-IRA in January each year, for several years--- depending on portfolio performance and need.
    I have investigated and tried to implement a Deferred Charitable Annuity (under my wife's name) at the local church where I attend; but the Business Manager confesses ignorance about the Deferred part. She recommended I call the "God Box" in NYC where several denominations have offices, and talk to our Foundation people.
    ...I did so, and had a pleasant conversation. The employee in NYC promised to send me some tables, charts, statistics, options, information. And she did.
    But they were the wrong ones. No one is making this easy. So...
    I'll just do what I want to do in my own way.
    Reducing 1040 tax is not a concern in our case. I'll simply write checks in a few tranches as donations and label each one as "legacy giving" items, each time. That'll "git 'er done."
    I DO appreciate your thoughtfulness. I'm still a member, officially, of the (other) denomination I retired from, but they're not going to get any of my money. Period. ;)
  • Six Global Balanced Funds That Make Sense for This Market
    RMDs, I'm sure you intended. Those are gonna hurt, but the $$$ can be reinvested in taxable. 2 more years to age 73. Born in '54. No escaping it. Death, taxes, winter. Well, not much winter here. Sometimes, however....
    Have you attempted to ease the RMDs with backdoor Roth conversions?
  • Vanguard Securities Lending Program
    The following info is from the Nov. 12, 2025 "Weekly Brief" published by The Independent Vanguard Adviser.
    If you participate in Vanguard's Fully Paid Lending Program, what has been your experience with this program?
    "In 2023, Vanguard opened the door to individual investors through its Fully Paid Lending (FPL) program,
    which the email is promoting. Here’s how it works: If you own individual stocks and enroll, Vanguard may lend some of them. You’ll earn a bit of income—split 50/50 with Vanguard—and when the loan ends, your shares
    are returned. You’ll keep 'economic ownership,' meaning you can sell the stock at any time."
    "So again, what’s not to like?
    First, while your shares are on loan, you lose your voting rights. The shares also aren’t protected by SIPC
    during that period. If the stock pays a dividend, you’ll still receive it—but the payment may be taxed differently.
    Finally, there’s no guaranteed payout. The income is variable and unpredictable."
    "Those are manageable trade-offs. The big question is: What’s the risk?
    Securities lending involves multiple moving parts—the lender (you), the borrower, a lending agent
    sitting between the two, collateral management and more. The main risk is that the borrower defaults,
    and the collateral isn’t enough to make you whole."
    "That’s unlikely, but not impossible. Vanguard has extensive experience lending securities,
    and the industry has tightened oversight over the years. Still, as with most 'extra income' offers,
    there’s no free lunch."
    https://www.independentvanguardadviser.com/weekly-brief-dont-mistake-noise-for-trouble/
    https://investor.vanguard.com/wealth-management/fully-paid-lending
  • Six Global Balanced Funds That Make Sense for This Market
    RMDs, I'm sure you intended. Those are gonna hurt, but the $$$ can be reinvested in taxable. 2 more years to age 73. Born in '54. No escaping it. Death, taxes, winter. Well, not much winter here. Sometimes, however....
  • The K-Shaped Economy
    Off topic - But one wonders how the popularity of online gaming of every sort (dice rolls, roulette wheels, sports events) is affecting the finances of these lower income workers? I was briefly addicted on an off-shore site several years before it became legal in the U.S. Wasn’t the $$ so much (probably lost $300 over 2-3 years) but the waste of time being glued to 2 or 3 contests daily that drove me to quit. Some stressed out workers facing higher prices for food, insurance, everything else may see online gambling as a “solution”. Nothing could be further from the truth.But I’m haunted by that possibility.
    Airlines? They are adding more and more first-class seats. On an A-320 /321 there might have been three or 4 first-class rows a few years ago. Now it’s 5 or 6 rows. Rarely did smaller short-haul flights offer first-class. Now most do. But I noticed on one recent flight that the legroom afforded first class flyers had shrunk a bit.
    (Most of my recent flying has been on American.)
  • Six Global Balanced Funds That Make Sense for This Market
    I happened to buy a slice of PMAIX earlier this week as mentioned in the BSW? thread. It's yearly returns aren't always as high as the funds mentioned above, but it does lead on the yearly Ulcer Index number going back eight years--the age of the two Vanguard funds. PMFYX, it's cheaper sibling, is an MFO P "Great Owl" over it's 13 year life span.
    It's currently about half the size of my position in PRWCX, and will likely go higher before MRD's start by 4/1/2030 at the latest.
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    Speaking of Epstein and jail... here's this via The Guardian-
    Trump refuses to rule out pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell

    Donald Trump just took questions from reporters for the first time since Monday, and refused to rule out a pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell, his former associate who was sentenced to 20 years in federal prison in 2022, for her role in a scheme to sexually exploit and abuse multiple minor girls with Jeffrey Epstein over the course of a decade.
  • Sentiment & Market Indicators, 11/12/25
    "The newsletter also highlights a survey by the American Association of Individual Investors.
    Stocks’ six-month return was highest when the spread between self-professed bulls
    and bears was most sharply negative—in other words, when respondents were most-pessimistic."
    "If you’re feeling almost envious of those buying opportunities, have a look at last week’s Michigan
    sentiment number. It came in well below expectations at 50.3, the second-lowest result ever.
    And the AAII survey just had a bull-bear spread in its most-pessimistic decile."
    "And when they respond to surveys, their feelings about the person in the White House skew their opinions.
    Low sentiment today is relative to our recent, gentle experiences and also more politicized than ever."
    "With stocks near the highest valuation ever, it’s also extremely unlikely they’ll more than double
    in the coming years. Are sentiment indicators broken as an investing cue?
    No, but they need to be recalibrated."
    https://marketsam.cmail19.com/t/d-e-gjdkykl-duklntldl-r/
  • Uncle Warren signs off....
    "It’s the end of an era for Berkshire Hathaway as Warren Buffett prepares to step aside as CEO.
    Investors shouldn’t worry about the change—in fact, they should welcome it."
    "Buffett fans might not like to hear it, but the CEO transition is coming at a good time.
    Buffett has slowed down in recent years and grown increasingly cautious.
    Berkshire’s massive cash holdings have been a drag on performance; Buffett has been selling stock,
    when he should have been buying; and recent acquisitions have left much to be desired.
    Berkshire stock has risen 13% in 2025, lagging behind the S&P 500’s 16% gain,
    and it has underperformed the index over the past three, 10, and 15 years.
    It’s a very un-Buffett-like performance."
    "Abel will need to articulate a vision for a post-Buffett Berkshire. It could be something like this:
    'I plan to build on the platform that Warren Buffett created and use Berkshire’s durable and ample earnings
    for investments, acquisitions, share repurchases, and dividends. Berkshire will be a more focused company
    under my leadership, with greater financial transparency, and maintain a Fort Knox balance sheet.
    I realize I can’t be Warren Buffett.
    But with the help of our talented managers, I pledge to improve our subsidiaries
    and turn what is the largest conglomerate in the world into the best-run conglomerate.
    My goal is to attract a new generation of investors to Berkshire and position the company
    to produce market-beating returns over time.'”
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/berkshire-without-buffett-what-s-next-for-the-company-and-the-stock/ar-AA1QoHzR
  • Alternatives to core bond funds
    MGOIX is classified as an intermediate core bond fund by M*. However, it's 93% taxable munis, which is not a mix you see all the time.
    I ended up buying a slice just to take a little risk on longer duration. The IRA is still under two years overall.
    According to MFO P, the correlation of MGOIX to VOO is .25 over the life of the youngest fund. MFO P defaults to MGAVX, which is the oldest share class.
    Needless to add that this is not a recommendation. It's only about 6% of my IRA.
  • Common concerns in shopping for funds and for health insurance
    our health insurance is provided through the City of San Francisco contract with Blue Cross of California.
    I sort of guessed that from your description of SF insurance company changes. For additional "fun", take a look at how NYC has been trying to change its retirees coverage for years. If you're not experiencing the plan yourself, it's hard to understand the current plan let alone the replacement plan. ISTM that both sides (city and retirees, with unions in the middle) are hyperventilating, exaggerating the problems with the other side. For the moment the status is: no change.
    https://www.thecity.nyc/2025/06/20/medicare-advantage-unions-eric-adams/
  • Common concerns in shopping for funds and for health insurance
    For someone who is 70, 80, 90, or 100, especially if their health isn’t great, receiving calls and bills from the hospital, even though they are not legally responsible for payment, can be confusing, frustrating, and stressful.
    True enough. Sometimes knowing some magic words can help. A few years ago I helped someone who was billed an extra $1/2M by a standby surgeon. I suggested that they ask the surgeon's office for papers where the patient signed off on the potential charges. Otherwise the patient would file a balance billing complaint. That seemed to do the trick - the surgeon's office went silent.
    Nevertheless it still creates a lot of stress for the person who thinks they are on the hook or is getting hounded for something they know they don't owe.
    Let's say that you choose a financially unstable insurer that offers a low premium for a Medigap Plan N policy to attract business. A year later, on your birthday, the insurer sharply increases premiums, perhaps by 50%, to cover losses, well above what a highly rated, stable insurer charges.
    This is a good example of where I see similarities between selecting investments and selecting insurers. Either way, you can pay up a bit for peace of mind: higher premiums to established insurer for more stable rates; lower return asset class for less volatility.
    In some states, there are state regulators that watch out for rate manipulation and protect residents. Georgia does not seem to be among them.
    State insurance departments review and approve all Medigap rate increase requests, but approval standards vary dramatically between states. California requires extensive justification for increases above 10%, while states like Florida approve most reasonable requests without extensive review. Some states like New York prohibit age-based increases entirely, while others allow companies to implement both inflation and age-related adjustments simultaneously. These regulatory differences explain why identical Medigap plans from the same company can have completely different rate increase patterns based on your location.
    https://davesilverinsurance.com/how-to-compare-medigap-insurance-rate-increases/
  • Common concerns in shopping for funds and for health insurance
    @msf Over the past few years, I have tried to track the pricing of community rated, issue age rated, and attained age rated Medigap Plan N policies, but I haven’t found any pattern I can understand. It seems nearly impossible to determine definitive reasons for the differences in pricing.
    For example, I have a friend on Medigap Plan N who is 70 years old. For most of 2025, she paid $116 per month. Recently, Aetna announced a new premium of $142, a 22.5% increase. After going through underwriting, she was able to switch to Cigna for $114 per month.
    You wrote:
    "True it can even be annoying to have to wait months for the EOBs to arrive. Other than that, what difference does the quality of the Medigap insurer make? They don't determine whether a service is covered. Medicare does that. They just fill in the gaps."
    For someone who is 70, 80, 90, or 100, especially if their health isn’t great, receiving calls and bills from the hospital, even though they are not legally responsible for payment, can be confusing, frustrating, and stressful.
    Let's say that you choose a financially unstable insurer that offers a low premium for a Medigap Plan N policy to attract business. A year later, on your birthday, the insurer sharply increases premiums, perhaps by 50%, to cover losses, well above what a highly rated, stable insurer charges. If you’ve had high medical usage or are in poor health, you may not be able to pass underwriting with another insurer for a Medigap Plan N. What options do you have then?
    Of course, this isn’t to suggest it couldn’t happen with a financially stable insurer (as my Aetna Plan N example shows), but it is likely less common.
  • Market timing is just gambling:
    I just won top ranking in 15 year ranking list from Hulbert Market Timing. I sold some stocks in April 2000 and April 2025. Oh, I won the worst market timer award.
    My return was 8%, against 15% from SP500. Could be driving a Ferrari in many colors if I just kept 100% in SP500.
    If I just left it TQQQ with 42% annual return, I’d have my own jet airplane - a little used Gulfstream 5.
    $1,000 a month in TQQQ for last 15 years would have cost $190,000, but ending value of $22M. If I didn’t waste my money on Starbucks lattes and Avacado Toast…$22M…
  • Common concerns in shopping for funds and for health insurance
    Comments below on Medigap are from what I remember from helping someone a couple of years ago. Little time to check all of the details now, so not everything may be spot on:
    IMHO what is most important is type of pricing, attained age, issue age or community pricing. It's hard to control for age because you don't know how quickly attained age policies will increase rates for each extra year of age. OTOH if you ever switch policies, I think you reset your issue age with the new policy.
    As I recall, plans get around community rating by offering discounts based on age. Sort of like saying: here's the price of a gallon of gas, but we'll give you a discount if you pay cash. So you really have to dig into the pricing details.
    Regarding excess charges, terms of art to know are "participating", "nonparticipating", and "opt out". Providers who "opt out" have opted out of Medicare and cannot provide service. While that sounds the same as "nonparticipating", nonparticipating means that they are allowed to impose excess charges. In all but 8(?) states nonparticipating providers can charge, as Mona wrote, 15% extra. Some of those eight forbid any excess charges, while others allow a smaller amount. For example, NYS allows 5%.
    https://nyassembly.gov/write/upload/req/physician_charges.pdf?v=1726590590
    While Medigap policies are standardized, for the past several years they have been allowed to offer extra benefits similar to Medicare Advantage plans. Gym memberships, vision care, etc. All Medigap Plan Gs are equal; some are more equal than others.
    See, e.g. https://www.commonwealthfund.org/blog/2021/small-share-medicare-supplement-plans-offer-access-dental-vision-and-other-benefits-not
    https://www.goodrx.com/insurance/health-insurance/medigap-gym-membership
    Since I've no experience with using Medigap plans, I'll phrase this as a question. What difference does the quality of the insurer make to you? Some insurers are particularly slow and that can put a burden on the provider waiting for payment - that affects the provider, not you. True it can even be annoying to have to wait months for the EOBs to arrive. Other than that, what difference does the quality of the Medigap insurer make? They don't determine whether a service is covered. Medicare does that. They just fill in the gaps.
  • Common concerns in shopping for funds and for health insurance
    Plan G Medigap plans have different prices because although the benefits are standardized by the government, the premiums are set by private insurance companies. These companies use various factors to determine costs, including your age, location, gender, and tobacco use, and they have their own pricing methods, such as attained-age, issue-age, or community-based ratings. Other factors like company expenses, health underwriting, and discounts also cause price variations.
    Some Medigap insurers can stop offering coverage in your state. If that happens, you can switch to another Plan G policy without medical underwriting.
    When I researched this years ago, most agents advised choosing a reliable, financially strong company that:
    * Has offered Medigap for decades and is likely to stay in your state long-term.
    * Has a larger policyholder pool, which often leads to smaller annual rate increases.
    * Offers coverage in multiple states, so your policy travels with you if you move.
    I couldn’t find any reliable resource that tracks the historical rate increases for Medigap policies over the years.
  • Common concerns in shopping for funds and for health insurance
    Comparing pricing on medicare.gov for Plan-G Medigap. We will not be signing up until late 2026 at earliest.
    If all Plan-G cover exactly the same by law (I am told), why would anyone choose other than the cheapest plan? (Attained age and community pricing held constant.)
    I see plans from ~$140/mo all the way to $600+ per month. What is the practical difference?
    some plans are from insurers that I have never heard of, that does make me uneasy.
    @DrVenture Medigap Plan G is the Cadillac. The only thing that it does not cover is the Part B deductible, which in 2025 is $240. Once you pay that, Plan G covers the rest of your approved Medicare costs for the year.
    Medicare Plan N is good. Again, you pay the $240 Part B deductible. Plan N has what is called Part B Excess Charges (providers can bill excess charges (up to 15%), though in practice, most don’t. Over 95% of U.S. doctors who see Medicare patients accept assignment). Some states do not allow Excess Charges. I know someone who resides in a state that does allow Excess Charges and in 10 years, she has never been billed for these charges. Also with Plan N, you are responsible for a $20 doctor visit and up to $50 for an ER visit if you are not admitted (25% - 30% less than G?).
    High-deductible G has the same benefits as G, but you must first pay an annual deductible before the plan begins paying. For 2025, that deductible is $2,800. The monthly premium for HD-G is considerably less than G (65% Less?).
    Yes, by law, each companies G must provide the same benefits. Same with N, HD-G and so on. My opinion is to stay with a name brand company. You want one that has good customer service, has a good reputation for processing claims, is financially strong, etc. You will find a name brand company that will be very competitive. Ask your doctors/hospitals which insurance companies they like best (the ones that pay claims promptly!). What you don’t want to happen is to end up with a “bad” company, you have a bad year medically, and you have to go through underwriting to change carriers. You may be stuck with the bad company.
    Post and/or read some threads on the Bogleheads forum. Very knowledgeable people regarding Medicare and these three different plans.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @WABAC: Bloom Energy for one reason.
    (gulp)!! Meteoric! Years and years of gurgles and sniffles...then bam! I'll track it. Thx.
    PBD and TAN are also ahead of SMH, YTD, and for the past twelve months. I know this because my spouse wanted some of that in her taxable portfolio a while ago. It hasn't paid off yet, because timing.
    I don't remember PBD or TAN having much of a stake in Bloom. Foreign activity, and the decline of the dollar, play their part in what you're seeing.
    Being behind in AI may not be the worst result of our mercantilist binge.