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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Withdrawal Studies with Updated PV in 2 Steps
    Withdrawal Studies with Updated PV in 2 Steps
    This 2-STEP trick will work with the updated PV. This month is 05/2024 (May), so the free PV will run without issue from 5/1/2014 - 4/30/2024 (the new 10-yr limit). But the PV will also run without limit for start and end dates prior to 5/1/14 (i.e. no limitations on older data beyond the recent 10-yr window; this was found by experimentation with the updated PV). So, the current month provides the unique break point (10 years ago) for these 2 steps.
    In this demo, the PV run for Bengen-type 4% withdrawal with annual COLA will be from 1/1/1985 - 4/30/2024 (the maximum possible at PV) in 2 steps.
    STEP 1, PV Run 1/1/1985 - 4/30/2014 (dates beyond recent 10 years)
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=3qDAqcuhRZT8zHPzoUQlPT
    Initial Principal Amount $100,000, initial Monthly Withdrawal $333 (= 4,000/12 rounded).
    A limitation of PV is that these inputs must be integers; to reduce the effect of rounding errors, $100,000 initial was used instead of the default $10,000. 3 funds used were VWELX, FPURX, DODBX and 1 benchmark used was VFINX.
    STEP 2, PV Run 5/1/2014 - 4/30/2024 (recent 10 years), with VWELX only (asset % for FPURX and DODBX were cleared to avoid confusion). To start the 2nd PV run, use the VWELX balance and Monthly Withdrawal on 4/31/2014.
    “Initial” Principal Amount $1,264,742, “initial” Monthly Withdrawal $745 (=$2,979/4 rounded; this is the payment for 4 months in 2014 divided by 4).
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=6Hbd9noxhDMxTtlIuqR4ns
    On 4/30/2024, Final Balance $2,530,484, Monthly payment $978 (=$3,911/4 rounded; payment for 4 months in 2024 divided by 4).
    Step 2 can be repeated for FPURX (Step 3), DODBX (Step 4), VFINX (Step 5).
    This is more complicated and tricky than the old single-step PV runs. One can subscribe to PV to still have that capacity.
    LINK
  • The end of Portfolio Visualizer as we knew it
    @yogibearbull, I follow. Hmmm
    You can start and end before 2015... up to ten years
    You can start and end after 2015... up to today's date (almost 10 years)
    But you can not start before 2015 and end after 2015 without PV shortening your inputs dates.
    Hopefully they'll be a fix coming.
  • The end of Portfolio Visualizer as we knew it
    @bee, now try to run 10 years to 2020, i.e. 2010-2020 (i.e. 1/1/2010-12/30/2020 under Year-to-year), but you can not. The result is truncated to 1/1/2015-12/31/2020 (well under 10 years). Then see my post just before yours - my guess is that your 10-year test periods were all pre-mid-2014 except the full 2014/2015-2024.
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=1F7QzYmcVWRuBv5WmY6L5B
  • The end of Portfolio Visualizer as we knew it
    Playing around with the new version of PV and the Backtesting Asset Allocation Portfolio tool:
    1. I first select "Custom Portfolio" and eliminate the four funds that are preloaded as the "Sample Portfolio".
    2. I enter a single ticker for Asset 1 (I used PRWCX) for my purposes. Change this as you please.
    3. I keep SPY as the Specified Benchmark ticker. Change this as you please.
    4. I run "Analyze Portfolio".
    5. I then select the "Link" option and copy this link to a location such as an email to myself or as a hyperlink in a spreadsheet file.
    6. I now have my own personal link to PV backtesting and my personal "Sample Portfolio".
    Here's my Link to my personal "Sample Portfolio" that I could further customize.
    7. Eliminate or keep the Asset 1 as Portfolio 1, enter assets for Portfolios 2 & 3 as you have in the past.
    My PV Sample Portfolio
    note:
    Changing setting to stress test your Portfolios
    To Stress test Custom Portfolios, select individual 10 year periods. I have used 2002 - 2011 as one stressful investment period. To choose your 10 year period, click on the setting tab adjusting the start and end dates.
    To stress test your portfolio further (say by taking annual withdrawals), I set my withdrawal amount by selecting the "Cashflow" options . I use 4% withdrawals as my annual withdrawal.
    With only a 10 year look back period I segment my look backs into distinct time periods.
    One of most stressful decades (10 years) to have started retirement would have been the start of the Tech bubble followed by the GFC say, 2002 - 2011.
    I compare these withdrawal results to other 10 year time frames, including the last 10 years (2015- 2024).
  • The end of Portfolio Visualizer as we knew it
    It seems that PV runs for the RECENT YEARS can go back only 10 years from now (i.e. 5/1/2014 in Month-to-month and 1/1/2015 in Year-to-year in 05/2024), but longer than 10-year runs are possible for start and end dates before this 10-year window.
    If so, that seems an odd way to implement the 10-yr restriction.
    BTW, these issues (and loopholes, workarounds, tricks, etc) are for free PV only. The PV subscribers may have a different view of this update or streamlining. Unfortunately, there is free/$0, and then quite steep $360/yr and $660/yr. If there was a tier around $100/yr, I could consider subscribing. As a subscriber to M*, Stock Rover (SR) and MFO Premium already, I don't find additional value in PV to justify $360-660/yr, but it's good for what it does.
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/pricing
  • Vanguard's new CEO
    @msf said, Bogle built a solid money management firm. Once he left, Vanguard dabbled in expanding financial products. For the most part, it hasn't done this well. While still dabbling it has often retreated to its core business. Sticking to one's knitting does not mean that one is placing the bottom line ahead of shareholder interests.
    This is not to say that Vanguard shouldn't be spending more to support its huge number of investors. It can, and IMHO should, nudge people toward electronic trading and communication. But it also needs to improve its human communications as well. This is not a matter of shedding lines of business. This is a matter of providing decent service for its core businesses.
    How true. When I started invest with Vanguard 30 years ago, their phone service is very good. Then the internet came and online investing began and that human touch decline. Flagship clients have a special phone number but few perks. We are reconsidering our earlier decision to stay put.
  • The end of Portfolio Visualizer as we knew it
    @Observant, new limitation is for 10 years. But you have to change both the start and end dates to capture the older 10-yr periods. Some periods > 10 years do slip by randomly, but I haven't figured out any pattern.
    For example, these old 20-year periods ran,
    5/1/1994 - 4/30/2014 https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=5XAbTVqb4yt0BQuvbe9O3F
    5/1/1990 - 4/30/2010 https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=25WEYneHHRZLPu7sE6csqE
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    I searched for credit cards with good overall cash-back policies and minimal hassles.
    I didn't want to play games with rotating categories, travel rewards, or some other BS.
    Show me the money!
    I found two good cash-back credit cards years ago (newest is >6 yrs. old).
    I haven't had customer service problems with the corresponding card issuers
    and plan to hold these cards long-term barring any unforseen circumstances.
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    @FD1000
    Thanks. I’ve saved the link to penfed. Just wondered … Do they have 24-hour live phone support? Easy to call? How well do they treat clients who call with inquiries, issues, etc?
    I don’t think the live support at Elan is as good as it was a few years ago. I had a Citibank MC up until about 2005. Not only was the support lacking, but back then they besieged you with promotions. Can’t remember the exact nature of these. But it was annoying to call in. There may have been some “hard-sell” tactics by the phone reps trying to sell you unwanted services. Can’t remember the details. But that was the main reason I moved to Elan.
    I appreciate that many people are reaping profits in the form of cash back, bonuses, travel points, etc. Never been my goal. Just good service w/o pressure tactics is what I’ve always cared about. And, of course, I pay balance off at the end of each cycle.
  • The end of Portfolio Visualizer as we knew it
    One PV LOOPHOLE is that the 10-year periods don't have to be recent, so free PV runs can be made for successive 10-year periods. Following are the PV runs for Bengen-type 4% withdrawals with annual COLA for 3 10-yr periods covering 30 years. Of course, some additional calculations will be needed to consolidate the data for straight 30 years.
    5/1/1994 - 4/30/2004, PV Run 1 https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=3v2yQJiyMm7H7MVQ6KQQQM
    5/1/2004 - 4/30/2014, PV Run 2 https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=41iTQ6EPGl0IjDgu80T37C
    5/1/2014 - 4/30/2024, PV Run 3 https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=4DBz45FjX7qA3Lh3nfENnz
  • T. Rowe Price Technology ETF in registration
    Thanks for the heads up.
    Anyone interested in this one? Looks like an ETF version of PRGTX (TRP Global Technology fund), which hasn't done too bad since the manager change. I'm curious what the fee will be.
    The link says:
    Portfolio Management
    T. Rowe Price has established an Investment Advisory Committee with respect to the fund. The committee chair is ultimately responsible for the day-to-day management of the fund’s portfolio and works with the committee in developing and executing the fund’s investment program. The members of the committee are as follows: Dominic Rizzo, chair, Kennard W. Allen, Stephanie Beebe, Shawn T. Driscoll, Gregory Dunham, David J. Eiswert, Sam Johnson, Lu (Jacqueline) Liu, Ross MacMillan, Jennifer O’Hara Martin, Anna Nussbaum, Frank Shi, Joshua K. Spencer, James Stillwagon, Taymour R. Tamaddon, Anthony Bruce Wang, and Ari Weisband. The following information provides the year that the chair first joined the Firm and the chair’s specific business experience during the past five years (although the chair may have had portfolio management responsibilities for a longer period). Mr. Rizzo has been chair of the committee since the fund’s inception in [2024].

  • "It Could Happen To You." Make you laugh. Schwab.
    @Crash
    But there's a wall around wifey's Trad IRA.
    What does this mean?
    Hello, @catch22.
    There are a few angles going on. Neither of us has any earned income. Not officially, I mean. I don't think we are even eligible to put anything more into either of our Trad. IRAs. Years ago, you were recommending that we convert to Roths. We didn't, and it's worked out better for us.
    So... It's too early to withdraw anything from wifey's IRA without a penalty. She's not 59 and a half, yet. And we can't ADD, either. Neither can we add to my own IRA. No earned income. Which is why we created the taxable trading account.
    Here at MFO, we religiously don't speak in terms of raw dollar amounts. That's a good idea. So, in practical terms, we have erected our OWN wall around wifey's IRA, because it's premature to make withdrawals, and also because the whole thing is worth just a hair more than $11k. Kinda useless to be rearranging and "diworsifying," while dealing with only that much money.
  • WealthTrack Show
    October 2016 - The Next 10 Years Will be Ugly for Your 401 (k) https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/81779/#Comment_81779
    February 2021 - Waiting for the Last Dance https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/137072/#Comment_137072
    September 2022 - Pessimism is deepening as bellwether companies warn of worsening economic and business conditions. https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/153433/#Comment_153433
    October 2022 - WTO Sees Sharp Slowdown in Global Trade, Pointing to Possible Recession, Lower Inflation https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60122/wto-sees-sharp-slowdown-in-global-trade-pointing-to-possible-recession-lower-inflation/p1
    June 2022 - NY Fed Sees 80% Probability of Hard Landing https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/150603/#Comment_150603
    February 2023 - Jeffrey Gundlach says he’s preparing for a recession and it doesn’t matter what you call it— ‘In eit https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60716/jeffrey-gundlach-says-he-s-preparing-for-a-recession-and-it-doesn-t-matter-what-you-call-it-in-eit/p1
    March 2023 - Could First Republic’s collapse trigger a recession? https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/161473/#Comment_161473
    November 2023 - Leuthold: the lights have all turned red, time to lighten up on stocks https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2023/11/
  • Bonds in La-La Land
    Interesting Barron’s story about the Southern California bond ecosystem.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/you-ll-never-trade-bonds-in-this-town-again/ar-BB1mzDel
    Nice story, very little what to do in bondland.
    "Gross, now 80 and as irascible as ever, continues to opine on the market (he dislikes bonds now) and manages a good chunk of money."
    Gross lost it years ago.
    IMO, finally bonds look better. BND, the most recommended index made 0.2% average annually for 5 years and 1.3% for 10 years
  • paying property tax with a CC
    I have been paying property taxes with a credit card for years.
    In my case, county charges 2.5% fee.
  • "It Could Happen To You." Make you laugh. Schwab.
    Transferred the Bruce money into Schwab via indirect rollover with a Bruce cheque. It sat as "cash" for ONE day in the account. That one day generated 13 CENTS of interest. After a chat on the Schwab website, there is clearly nothing to be done except to let that 13 cents ride, like a flea on a hippopotamus, for 438 years until it grows to be at least $1.00. THEN, it can be used to buy shares in the chosen mutual fund.
    Truth is stranger than fiction. I shit you not.
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    I have the Fido 2% cash back for many years. The first time I did a dispute was last week, what a pain in the A$$. You must talk to a rep and it took 30 minutes for a simple dispute.
    I joined Penfed 15-20 years ago, (anyone can) and have 2 cards
    1) 5% cash back on all gas stations, you must fill at the pump. I use it only for gas. It also pays 3% for supermarkets, food and more. But Walmart and Aldi where I shop are not included.
    2) 2% cash back worldwide on everything.
    Both cards have a real zero fee worldwide and good customer service. You can dispute online in minutes.
    Last year they helped me with a tough case against a car rental in the Netherlands, I got all the money, they canceled the card and got me a new one so the merchant could not charge me again.
    Wow, I just talked myself out of using the Fidelity CC.
    See it at https://www.penfed.org/credit-cards
    Other than that I'm not interested in points and/or limited cards and/or gradually increasing cards. Give it to me simple.
  • Rising Auto & Home Insurance Costs
    @Old_Joe : "
    After a couple of expensive episodes of emergency sewer line cleanout due to clogs snagged on that we switched to the thin stuff, and all has been well since. "
    After being a plumber for a number of years, first I've heard of this. I'll run this by others at the next retirees luncheon.
    Good for you, Derf
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    Oh, I wasn't talking about Fidelity/Elan. I was thinking, perhaps of one of the AAA cards, though they are provided by Bread Financial/Comenity Bank. That is not well regarded either. So a AAA card may not be a better alternative.
    I'm looking for a backup card for foreign travel. Backup means it won't be used frequently but reliability is important. It seems that QuickSilver (Capital One) changed from Visa to MC a couple of years ago. It checks all my boxes.
    It pays only 1.5% cash back, but for an infrequently used card a half percent difference isn't important. What does matter is that it has no annual fee or foreign transaction fee. And MC means it complements the Visa card I use for foreign travel. A modest signup bonus ($200) is a small plus. Not to mention half off coffee drinks in their cafes.
    Obviously, each person's criteria are different. The Fidelity card works nicely for many.
  • MRFOX
    BIVRX gained 61.2% in 2021, and then followed that up by rising 49.5% in 2022. This "long-short" fund has 6 positive calendar years of gains, 0 negative.
    However, in 2024 it is down YTD..... close to (-9%) thus far. It's worth a small allocation to me. Long-short funds are so funky.