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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • MRFOX
    Hi @Dennis,
    MRFOX down today 1.41% which is unusual. Do you by any chance know the fund's 2023 annual distribution date? In prior years, based on M* info, it distributed in mid December. Why can not I locate prior year distributions at the fund site?
    I also noticed that the fund website has a lot of tabs but the info is sparse / stale. Most funds' websites readily show expense ratio and I just realized that one has to go the prospectus document to know this fund's expense ratio. Am I not looking in the right place?
    https://marshfieldfunds.com/fund-facts/
    P.S.: the fund total return since the beginning of April is 1%. I can not find an investment or money market in my account with that total return!
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    “I also posted … why high-rated funds were terrible in the last 10 years
    @FD / Wouldn’t it help people more if you posted what different investments will do in the next 1, 5, 10 years rather than what they did in the past?
    You seem to be inventing your own definition of “trader” vs “investor.” I’m not sure if there exists a rigid definition of “trader.” You are entitled to your own like anyone else. For day trading the SEC does have a definition. But it’s several times weekly, not yearly.
    Here’s a legal definition of frequent trading
    Here’s some SEC definitions of day trading
    Of course, various mutual fund providers also have definitions for frequent trader. These can vary from one provider to the next.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    @MikeM, I did understand you pretty well. Racqueteer's answer was excellent, explaining it further. There are so many styles between traders to B&H for ever.
    You could have constructed a very nice portfolio in 2010 just to find out that your decent VALUE or EM funds have lagged SPY/VOO by a big margin.
    On the other hand, the same funds above lost money for 10 years.
    I also posted how PIMIX did great and then ICMUX did much better + why high-rated funds were terrible in the last 10 years.
    The above examples are not monthly or even yearly trades, these are at least 3 years in the same fund. It shows it would be difficult to construct a portfolio that works well in all markets.
    So, when someone says she is not a trader on these boards, it's hard for me to believe it.
    Did you trade 2-3 times per year? You are a trader.
    Did you trade only 30% of your portfolio? You are still a trader.
    There are not many posters who bought 10 funds 5 years ago and created their "perfect" portfolio and haven't done 3-5 and more changes.
    Most of the ones who owns their funds for years are indexers and or Bogleheads.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    The SP500+QQQ has been great since 2010. From 2000 to 2010, the SP500 lost about 10% and QQQ lost almost half.
    FAIRX was a great fund during 2000-10 but has been far behind since 2010.
    ICMUX made more than PIMIX for 3 years (chart)
    But PIMIX made more from 2015 to 2020 (chart) and PIMIX management is pretty good.
    Based on my history of following many funds, I hardly ever found a fund that stays at the top every 2-3 years. Maybe PRWCX is the exception.
    @FD1000, you totally didn't understand or ignored what I said. My opinion is that, for most investors (not traders), it's the portfolio construction that matters more so than individual funds. Of course no fund stays in the top tier of category year in and year out. But there are plenty of funds that stay consistently good over time and fill that portfolio segment, like ICMUX.
    Your comparative selection of funds above is all in hindsight and therefore irrelevant to portfolio construction IMHO.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    It's my perception that people who move in and out of funds are "fund" investers, maybe even collectors, not over-all "portfolio" investors. My hope is having a portfolio that trends upward with the least amount pf volatility I can obtain. The portfolio is, hopefully, made up of managers and a mix of fund type with a winning long-term history. Not the best fund that month or year. If ICMUX has a so-so year, I don't jump out to get into the hot fund at the time. ICMUX, and I'm just using this fund as an example, has history of good management and returns and a risk level that fits the portfolio.... Is there better funds at this precise time? Probably. Just another 2-cents.
    Good management is not guaranteed to be good every year or even several years and in every situation and/or market.
    I never believed in diversification either because it led to lower performance for years.
    BTW, in very high risk markets, you learn pretty quickly that most funds sink together. You even learn that bonds don't always save you, think 2022.
    The SP500+QQQ has been great since 2010. From 2000 to 2010, the SP500 lost about 10% and QQQ lost almost half.
    FAIRX was a great fund during 2000-10 but has been far behind since 2010.
    ICMUX made more than PIMIX for 3 years (chart)
    But PIMIX made more from 2015 to 2020 (chart) and PIMIX management is pretty good.
    Based on my history of following many funds, I hardly ever found a fund that stays at the top every 2-3 years. Maybe PRWCX is the exception.
    In bondland the exceptions are so much better and can last for months, sometimes years.
    An extra of 3% in bondland annually for many retirees is so good that you can own a small % in stocks (or none) with a much lower volatility portfolio.
    The investors who believed in B&H; in the last 10 years, the most recommended bond fund, BND (US Total index) made just 1.7% average annually, far behind inflation.
    In the last year, I owned 2 bond funds for most months and hardly traded. Not every trader changes funds every week/month. I always admitted I'm a trader but I see many who trade so much more than me and claim they don't.
  • How To Manage (Early) Retirement
    Early retirement passed me by years ago :) At 70, I still work 2-3 days a week. But alas, that ends at the end of this year.
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2024/Q3–October 7, 2024)
    Some posters here may remember that years ago, Vanguard tried to be disruptive in the market for variable-annuities (VAs) with income-riders (GMWB, GLWB). People thought that was odd for a major low-low-cost indexer to jump into a product with the highest ERs. VG was disruptive all right for a while - its ERs were about half of the industry norms, but still high. However, as its losses grew, it first increased the ERs of these VA-GLWB, and eventually, got out of that business.
    Then, years later, it dumped its entire VA operation on to Transamerica, and now only manages the VA funds for fees.
    So, the talk of being disruptive is easy, but stamina and staying power are something else. I am glad that it has chosen active bond funds for its first big disruptive push (should Pimco be concerned?). Hopefully, nothing much can go wrong there. But as it goes into other areas such as private markets, RIA business, things may not go as easy.
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    How far does anyone think this reversal on the 10 year may go? I understand the “bond vigilantes” taking control of longer rates out of the Fed’s hands (not that they ever really had it) but am surprised by the speed and magnitude of the reversal. Friday’s hot jobs report really blew the lid off the rate structure. Just a temporary bump - or are we heading a lot higher? The damn election throws a whole lot of monkey wrenches into the equation too, with several possible outcomes. I think the Fed is being a little restrained right now due to the election. At some point afterward (assuming it ever ends) they might decide to clamp down harder if the economy keeps running hot. And, counterintutively, that could cause the short end to spike and longer rates to drop.
    Maybe too off topic - But does anyone think as I do that the big gains in equities the past 2 years (and to a lesser degree bonds and cash) are helping keep the economy hot by providing consumer spending stimulus - mostly for the people who already have enough? So to a degree it becomes a virtuous circle with spending propping up stocks and stocks propping up spending. What could possibly go wrong? Just some far out thoughts. You won’t hear this on Bloomberg.
    Anybody know what’s coming? Is that light at the end of the tunnel a locomotive heading our way? I don’t pretend to know. Just throwing some crazy questions out there for the smarter board members.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    Observations:
    1) fred495 is a good trader. Every investment board have different traders. The ones who buy and hold years, the ones who switch every 2-3 years, and others who change when they see better funds than what they have.
    So, when someone posts about a fund I own now and says, Well, in 2022, it lost more than another fund or in the last 10 years, this fund was better than another, I don't care, what matters is what the fund is doing now.
    2) We discussed PVCMX several months ago and I said why own it now. YTD is made only 4.2%. Does anyone own this fund and feel great?
    3) ICMUX made YTD 8.5%(there are better bond options). Retirees who have enough and want low SD performance should be very happy to make it in bonds. I know fred is in this camp.
    Where can I sign for 3-5% annually over inflation and I keep the money?
    4) What about QQMNX? I have tested so many ALT funds, especially AQR funds, and was never impressed about their LT. It is also very difficult to hold them when the market is running away. ALT funds can do a better job in more volatile markets, but remember, if the managers make 1 mistake every year, it can be costly.
    In 2022 QQMNX did well, but in 2023 it made 5% while SPY made 26%. Would you hold that long?
    5) Retirees who have enough can avoid the big losses easier than accumulators who must stay invested all the time.
    6) Someone who can't time markets and wants to own 10%, maybe 20% in ALT funds and hold LT? why not.
    BTW, I don't love or hate any fund/manager, I dislike laggers, especially the ones that lag for 1-2 and more years while many hang on.
  • Income Producing Assets - How do they Impact Your Net Worth?
    Let say I buy a annuity, own rental property, apply for Social Security, and receive a pension along with any other income producing asset. I have often wondered how these income producing (in periodic payments) assets are calculated into my net worth and my overall portfolio asset allocation.
    Annuity:
    The annuity pays individuals differently, but for the sake of the discussion let's say you buy a 5% fix annuity. You won't actually know what you lifetime payout will be (until you die), but you would expect ($300K*5%) periodically ($15K/yr for example). Eventually, a annuity dies with you. Does annuity income add to your net worth while alive? Is it subtracted when you die (not that you care, but your heirs might).
    Social Security:
    Social Security seems to be set up in a similar manner (plus a COLA rider), but your payout is determined instead your work income history. SS goes away upon death and so does its net worth value. Does it have a net worth value while alive.
    Rental Property:
    If you bought a $300K home and rented it for income, you might hope to net 10% ROI or $30K/yr. The property has to be managed and maintained. Upon death, the property has value. While living, a rental asset provides rental income. Both seem to be additive to one's net worth in life and death.
    Pension Income:
    From the linked article:
    For example, if your pension pays out $40,000 a year, you expect to live 30 years, and your discount rate is 4%, then your pension would be worth around $692,000 today. You can get this value by plugging all of these values into a financial calculator [Payment = $40,000, Future Value = $0, Interest/Year = 4%, Periods = 30, Periods/Year = 1] and then solving for the Present Value. In other words, if you had $692,000 today (Present Value) that was earning 4% per year, you would be able to withdraw $40,000 per year for 30 years before running out of money.
    This article might lend itself to help determine how these income producing assets impact net worth.
    how-much-is-my-pension-worth/
  • Small/mid cap ETF
    You might consider CPAI (Counterpoint Quant Equity ETF, a multi-cap growth fund. Age 0.8 years; 11.96 financials (not heavy); YTD return 33.4% through September beats SP 500 by 5.7%; ER .75.
  • James D. Oelschlager, Founder of Oak Associates Passes Away
    I seem to recall that many years ago, White Oak and Pin Oak were popular and highly touted funds.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    For the past two months, I have been following two "Market Neutral" funds, QQMNX and VMNFX, which held up very well and provided some protection during recent market downturns. New managers have been at the helm of both funds since 2021.
    As MikeM said: "I have to admit, QQMNX is a tempting alternative in this alternative field for a less bumpy ride and, so far, excellent returns."
    ..............QQMNX....VMNFX
    YTD.........15.6%.......8.9%
    3 YRS.......14.4........14.8
    5 YRS.......10.3..........8.2
    2022..........9.5.........13.5
    Std. Dev....8.6%.......7.3%
    As a retired investor who doesn't need a lot more money, preserving capital is more important to me than seeking sizeable returns on capital. While both funds have excellent risk/reward profiles, I have decided to add QQMNX to my portfolio at this time of fairly high equity valuations.
    A couple other market neutral funds you can consider: BDMAX and JMNAX. BDMAX has outperformed QQMNX over the last 1 and 2 year trailing periods, and has a higher Sharpe ratio and lower standard deviation over the last 3 years according to Morningstar data. JMNAX has had lower returns, but has a smooth ride. I use a combination of BDMAX and JMNAX, but I might consider adding QQMNX. Thanks for bringing it up.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    I drive cars till they quit. We have had great luck with Prius V. Almost 200,000 miles ten years old
    Not as fun to drive s others but best deal I ever made in a car
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    If your sample size is 3 years, fine. Over 10 years BGHIX outperformed QQMNX with a CAGR of 8.18 vs 7.24 and a sharpe ratio of .84 vs .61 and max drawdown of 13.29 vs. 18.27 (it's this last number that's most concerning). All that being said, I've decided to take a chance on this one.

    The reason I picked 3 years is because a new management team took over QQMNX in 2021. So far so good. But, "Past results are not a guarantee of future results....".
    Good luck.
  • East Coast Dock Workers Strike Ends … But Might Resume January 15.
    While the government said it won't interfere by ordering workers back under Taft-Hartley, my guess is that it used that power to pressure both sides to come to a temporary resolution.
    1. Management was at +$3/hr increase each year for 6 years, but the union was asking +$5/hr. So, they were probably told to split the difference and settle for +$4/hr wage increases NOW.
    2. Both sides will continue to haggle on other aspects until 1/15/24.
    A long port strike could be very disruptive for the supply-chains and the economy. Pictures of people already hoarding supplies weren't good. Powell probably took note of these wage increases that were multiple times of his +2% average inflation target.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    That's my worry with QQMNFX. Is the risk/reward that much better than a solid bond fund particularly if rates fall as "expected"?
    BGHIX would be one example that I've been in since before the managers joined BrandywineGlobal.

    Sorry, but a quick glance at BGHIX's Standard Deviation of 7.7% and a 3-year total return of only 4.2% doesn't qualify the fund to be on my personal watch list. If I invest in bond funds, I prefer funds like ICMUX or CBLDX, for example, that have significantly better risk/reward profiles than BGHIX.
    By the way, QQMNX, which has a slightly higher SD than BGHIX, 8.6% v. 7.7%, has a 3-year total return of 14.4%, a difference of over 10%. That's "much better" than any solid bond fund I am familiar with.
    If your sample size is 3 years, fine. Over 10 years BGHIX outperformed QQMNX with a CAGR of 8.18 vs 7.24 and a sharpe ratio of .84 vs .61 and max drawdown of 13.29 vs. 18.27 (it's this last number that's most concerning). All that being said, I've decided to take a chance on this one.
  • East Coast Dock Workers Strike Ends … But Might Resume January 15.
    Inflation isn’t just increasing prices. It’s also increasing wages. The two may not move in perfect harmony. Longer term it tends to even out. But it can appear herky-jerky on either side of the coin. The old adage / warning about the hazards of living on a fixed income during retirement ring true today. Over decades you’d be swamped by price increases without having either a good COLA adjustment or alternative sources of income (ie investments). Likely, the one area seniors probably need most as they age - health care - has increased more than the rate of inflation in recent years.
    I’m wondering if the short strike affected the cost of imports and hurt foreign based companies that import to the U.S. - if only briefly. And unconfirmed media reports suggest shoppers had begun to hoard necessities again with some Costcos running out of paper towels and toilet tissue. Amazing how everything is interconnected.
  • CrossingBridge Nordic High Income Bond Fund in registration
    Located another fund that invests in Nordic HY going back a few years - they are located in Finland. Nice returns....
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