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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    @Hank. I agree that people today seem way more bent out of shape over what is sort of mild and shorted lived compared to the old days. And inflation is what you make of it too. We bought an old boat, sailed to the sea of Cortez and lived on a small part of the interest our money market account was paying. After three years we had more than when we left. Hank. La Paz, was sure different than the northern suburbs of Detroit where I grew up.
  • Submitting CFPB complaints
    I filed an SEC complaint a couple of years ago when I sold a mutual fund at one NAV stated by Schwab and then days later the fund company lowered the price I recieved
    The paperwork was not much. I won and got about $500 back
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    Seems like a good time to build a replicating portfolio for LCORX. Devo describes the process at this dinky linky.
    Portfolio Visualizer gives us ten free years of data, and over that period of time LCORX shows a beta of .49. So we're going to test LCORX against a portfolio that is 51% cash and 49% SPY--I think that's the right breakdown.
    And here are the results: YADL (yet another dinky linky.)
    To get the betas to match over time I had to adjust the breakdown to 50/50/ And here is the result for that.
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    Thanks. No offense taken @WABC. Yours was a good question. Perhaps better put as: “What are the relative risks / rewards of Tactical Allocation approaches vs Options Based approaches? What could go wrong with either?”
    LCORX seems more “old school” to me. I understand what it means to sell a stock short or to go long. And, in years past I’d “jigger” my relative weightings up and down (ie stocks, bonds, metals) to conform to whatever market view I held. Options trading is harder for me to fully understand. Not sure that at my age I need or want to get “up-to-speed” on this type of approach.
    I hope no one has expressed disdain for another’s investment choices. Sorry if that has occurred. As I see it ….. It’s their money. They worked hard for it. If the investment fails, they are the one who suffers the loss - not me.
    Regards
  • Dave Giroux Explains TCAF's Portfolio Construction
    A recent article in The NY Times about an Iowa pig farmer converting his farm to mushroom production states that there are 4000 factory farms in Iowa. An Iowa farmer interviewed on CNN last night said it’s good for the earth to raise beef cattle. I suspect there’s a connection between the American diet and our obesity problem. I am not neutral on the issue: I think bacon is a carcinogen and avoid animal products, processed foods, and the like.
    Indeed. Having eaten beef in Europe, South America, and Asia, it tastes totally different than American beef which often has been fed all sorts of crap and given all sorts of drugs to help provide 'greater yield' compared to those other regions ... such Frankenfoods definitely play a role in the obesity problems, even if they're not necessarily processed. The same with wheat, which is engineered and grown more for 'yield' and 'cost savings' than nutritional value -- the wheat of today, especially in the USA is NOT the wheat from 200 or 1000 years ago.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    We also us JPMC as our primary bank- all of our SS and retirement income is channeled through them, and then automatically transferred to Schwab twice a month. Both JPMC and Schwab have offices one block away from our home, so dealing with either of them is very easy. I don't believe that our JPMC branch still offers deposit boxes, but they have maintained ours for many years.
  • Dave Giroux Explains TCAF's Portfolio Construction
    new medication will improve lives and reduce junk food consumption.

    What a strange world we live in that we have to buy expensive drugs to save us from consuming
    stuff that should rarely go into our shopping carts.
    I remember when 'Wheat Belly' was published 15 or so years ago and how the grain/junk food industry was playing dirty pool trying to discredit the author (a cardiologist) and plant seeds of doubt. Seeing how the industry was being so proactive in their nonsense, I presumed the book was probably on to something. But the book was eye-opening .... I went low-bad-carb for a year, lost a TON of weight, and haven't looked back. Since then i've learned the food industry will do ANYTHING to keep its customers hooked, and the pharma industry will do ANYTHING to address symptoms but not 'cure' the underlying causes ... both in the name of $$$$$$, of course.
    By contrast, a longtime friend is on a GLP-1. They were never a chronic junk or processed food addict, worked out regularly, and generally had a healthy lifestyle yet struggled with weight and major appetite issues for decades. She started on GLP-1s last year and (last I heard) is down 25# and says they're feeling/looking like a new person in ways "not since college." I think GLP-1s are game changers, plus I'm seeing studies about how they're showing promise for other conditions, too.....and if GLP-1s can help metabolic issues, that can have a follow-on benefit for patients who don't need as many drugs for conditons, new medical devices, replacement knees/hips, etc. So in that regard I think Giroux is spot-on in this assessment. But it's great for patients, but bad for some companies.
  • JPMorgan Hedged Equity
    I've been a happy owner of JHQAX for many years now and think of it's expected return and volatility the same as you stated, like a moderate balanced fund. But I also bought into the T.Rowe Price hedged fund, PHEFX, when it came out and have steadily increased the holding. PHEFX has actually returned more than JHQAX with what seems to be slightly more volatility. 1 year return for JHQAX=15.2%, PHEFX=22.7%. In comparison to a well known balanced fund, PRWCX=16.9% while the S&P 500 has returned ~22% in the past 1 year. FWIW.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    "Wire form UI to other brokerages is a mess"
    Please elaborate. I have not done a wire from Fido to other brokerages in a couple of years and I have a short memory for unpleasant things.
    Do not you need a Fido CMA account to use zelle?
  • Harbor International Growth Fund will be liquidated
    Good point, @sven, regarding Capital Appreciation. It appears that Segalas got some help from other Jennison Associates colleagues in the last few years of his service. These days, three of them are running the OEF while those three, plus a fourth, run the PGIM Jennison Focused Growth ETF (PJFG) and the Harbor Long-Term Growers (WINN). WINN has $500M under management, so no trading problems. Both are very aggressive sporting large positions in the Mag 7.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    "I didn’t sense as much angst among the public back then over rising prices as today. ... I think it came on gradually over many years and people got used to it. They say if you put a frog in a pot of cold water and heat it up to a boil slowly the frog will die of the heat rather than jump out."
    Inflation is expressed in annual change of price. If inflation goes up from 17% in one year to18% inflation the next year, people will know they are paying 18% more in price than what they paid the previous year. Not sure how people can get used to it.
    It is possible your memory is kind to previous generations or the current populations are more whiny - you have to figure that out for yourself.
  • Harbor International Growth Fund will be liquidated
    Spiros “Sig” Segalas who managed Capital Appreciation fund passed away several years ago. The fund is team managed today. Still very good but no where nearly as good as it used to be. Other Harbor OEFs are so so.
    Time have changed and BG’s investment style is clearly out of favor since the pandemic. Additionally, their higher EM exposure does not help.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Yes. 20% in a money market fund - Delaware Cash Reserves. The company is no longer existent.
    Wasn’t all happy. Especially shopping for groceries in the big stores in the northern (Detroit) suburbs. There were always several employees moving up / down the aisles marking items up by hand. No bar codes in those days. Things went up fast. The loaf of bread you paid 50 cents for became 60 cents a few weeks later and 75 cents by year’s end. On and on it went. Not only bread. Meats, staples, everything rising. Year after year. So, after paying federal income tax on your 20% “windfall” you were lucky to end up ahead. Fortunately unions were strong and protected workers with COLA wage raises. To some extent, non union workers benefited indirectly.
    This source shows annual inflation peaking around 18% in 1980 and remaining in double-digits for several years.
    I didn’t sense as much angst among the public back then over rising prices as today. But maybe I wasn’t looking or listening. I think it came on gradually over many years and people got used to it. They say if you put a frog in a pot of cold water and heat it up to a boil slowly the frog will die of the heat rather than jump out.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    @AndyJ- Yes sir, you are correct on that. Still, 50 years of damage ain't great.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Compare those chart events with Reagan years (1980-88) and Volcker years at the Fed, 08/1979* - 08/1983** - 08/1987.
    In 1987, rumor went both ways - one was that Volcker didn't want a 3rd term, and another that Reagan wasn't going to nominate him for the 3rd term, had a search setup for possible replacement that was headed by Greenspan. The politician that Greenspan was, he recommended reappointing Volcker, but Reagan nominated Greenspan instead.
    Two months into Greenspan's term, stock market crashed on 10/19/1987 (Black Monday). It had more to do with dollar and some harsh statements that the US Treasury Secretary Baker made about Germany and the US allies.
    BTW, as reported by various sources, it was Baker who said to Volcker that the President was "ordering" him to lower rates. Reagan (who was present) and Volcker didn't say anything. Volcker left the meeting without reacting to Baker's "order".
    *Nominated by Carter
    **Nominated by Reagan
  • Harbor International Growth Fund will be liquidated
    B-G's funds have been out of style for the past few years. It's not just with HAIGX and B-G's sleeve of VWIGX. M*'s automated analysis notes: "The parent firm's five-year risk-adjusted success ratio [is] 21%". See, M*'s quant analyses are not entirely useless. :-)
    HAIGX is a clone of B-G's BGCSX. 44 holdings overlap, all of which are in each fund's top 50 (M* portfolio tool). Same set of managers. And no management investment at BGCSX either.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    "Lived through 20% interest rates in the 70s or 80s."
    Made a killing on that... bonds out of Utah (Mormons) to build a huge electric generating facility at Four Corners. Terrific income until they were called a couple of years later. It wasn't until fairly recently that I became aware that I had helped build an enormous coal-fired generating complex. Who knew?
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    I am somewhat amused by all of the criticism regarding BofA. I came to the same conclusion over fifty years ago. When BofA took over the bank that held our mortgage I walked into our local branch, was granted an audience with the surly unfriendly woman who had replaced the former pleasant and helpful manager, handed her a check (on a different bank) and paid off the mortgage then and there. Haven't had any traffic with BofA since.
    When I was a youngster (1940s/50s) BofA was headquartered in San Francisco. It had taken over and replaced a historic and outstanding local bank: The Bank of Italy, started by A.P. Giannini, a revered local businessman. After the earthquake of 1906 Mr. Giannini loaded all of his customer's money into horse-drawn wagons and transported it down the San Francisco peninsula to his own home, where it was safe from the fire which later consumed his bank offices in San Francisco's North Beach enclave.
    image
    From Wickipedia:
    A. P. Giannini was an American banker who founded the Bank of Italy, which eventually became Bank of America. Giannini is credited as the inventor of many modern banking practices. Most notably, Giannini was one of the first bankers to offer banking services to middle-class Americans, mainly Italian immigrants, rather than only the upper class. He also pioneered the holding company structure and established one of the first modern trans-national institutions.
    My father, who was also Italian, had nothing but contempt for the BofA, which had turned a friendly and helpful local bank into what you folks are still observing today. Boy, was he ever right.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    WCPNX. 5.6 years duration. I like what I see there.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Long term bonds (treasuries or other) are often regarded as useful primarily for placing bets on interest rate movements, i.e. speculating. Most of the time long term bonds don't offer enough extra yield over intermediate term bonds to be worth the risk as investments.
    Currently, though the yield curve is largely inverted, at least you're getting a little risk premium with longs over intermediates.
    https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/
    Pushing on a string may not be the best metaphor, but the Fed pushes on the short end of the curve. That end has a lot of room to go down without long end yields necessarily dropping.

    10 year Treasuries are still under 4%, while their long term historical average is 4.25%. There's not much room for 30 years to drop in yield if they're going to stay above 10 year rates. 30 year Treasuries are now also below their historical average of 4.74%.
    We've already seen a drop in 30 year rates. Mortgages have dropped half a percent percent in the past month and are not expected to decline further this year, even with an anticipated Fed rate cut.
    https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/mortgage-interest-rates-forecast/
    All of this is not to say that long term rates won't drop a lot more. Or they might not. When and how much are also open questions.
    Me, I'm sticking with intermediates. Win a little, lose a little, they offer more stability as backup for cash in the 3-7 year timeframe.
    Side note: I suspect that cap gains on Treasuries are not state income tax exempt. While I have been unsuccessful in finding writing one way or the other, there are many sources documenting the fact that cap gains on muni bonds are state taxable. ISTM the situations are analogous.