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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How Did Members First Find MFO? IOW What Got You Here?
    FWIW, there are a few remaining free Usenet (nntp) servers (for text groups, not binaries). I still find misc.taxes.moderated one of the best places to go for arcane and not so arcane tax issues.
    As rono said, many of the unmoderated groups like misc.taxes and misc.invest.mutual-funds are worthless. Another good moderated group, misc.invest.financial-plan seems to have effectively vanished.
  • FPA New Income, Inc. limited availability to new investors as of August 1, 2020
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/99203/000110465920082874/tm2024548-1_497seq.htm
    ...Effective August 1, 2020, the following is added to the front page of the Prospectus:
    Fund shares are presently offered for sale only to existing shareholders and to directors, officers and employees
    of the Fund, the Fund’s Adviser, First Pacific Advisors, LP, and affiliated companies, and their immediate
    relatives, and certain categories of shareholders.
    Effective August 1, 2020, the section titled “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” on page 8 is replaced in its entirety with the following:
    Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares
    The Fund has discontinued indefinitely the sale of its shares to new investors, except existing shareholders, directors, officers and employees of the Fund, the Adviser and affiliated companies, and their immediate relatives. See the section entitled “Limited Availability to New Investors” for a description of shareholders eligible to purchase shares of the Fund. Investors may purchase or redeem Fund shares on any business day by written request, check, wire, ACH (Automated Clearing House), telephone, or through dealers as further described in this prospectus. You may conduct transactions by mail (FPA Funds, c/o UMB Fund Services, Inc., P.O. Box 2175, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53201-2175, or 235 West Galena Street, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53212), by wire, or by telephone at (800) 638-3060. Purchases and redemptions by telephone are only permitted if you previously established this option in your account. Eligible investors can use the Account Application for initial purchases.
    Eligible investors can purchase shares by contacting any investment dealer authorized to sell the Fund’s shares. The minimum initial investment is $1,500, and each subsequent investment, which can be made directly to UMB Fund Services, Inc., must be at least $100. However, as described herein, no minimum investment amount is imposed for subsequent investments in retirement plans. All purchases made by check should be in U.S. dollars and made payable to the FPA Funds. Third party, starter or counter checks will not be accepted. A charge may be imposed if a check does not clear. The Fund reserves the right to waive or lower purchase and investment minimums in certain circumstances. For example, the minimums listed above may be waived or lowered for investors who are customers of certain financial intermediaries that hold the Fund’s shares in certain omnibus accounts, at the discretion of the officers of the Fund. In addition, financial intermediaries may impose their own minimum investment and subsequent purchase amounts.
    Subsequent investments and redemptions can be made directly to UMB Fund Services, Inc.
    Effective August 1, 2020, the following is added at the beginning of the section titled “Investing with the Fund” on page 23:
    LIMITED AVAILABILITY TO NEW INVESTORS
    The availability of shares of the Fund to new investors is limited. The Fund has discontinued indefinitely the sale of its shares to new investors, except existing shareholders, directors, officers and employees of the Fund, the Adviser and affiliated companies, and their immediate relatives. Affiliated companies include: current and former directors, officers and employees of the Adviser (and its predecessor firm and such predecessor firm’s parent firms) and its affiliates; current and former directors of, and partners and employees of legal counsel to, the investment companies advised by the Adviser; investment advisory clients of the Adviser and consultants to such clients and their directors, officers and employees; employees (including registered representatives) of a dealer that has a selling group agreement with UMB Distribution Services, LLC and consents to the purchases; any employee benefit plan maintained for the benefit of such qualified investors; directors, officers and employees of a company whose employee benefit plan holds shares of one or more of the FPA Funds; and directors, officers and employees of the Fund’s custodian and transfer agent.
    In addition, the Fund will allow new investors to purchase shares if they fall into one of the following categories:
    1. Clients of an institutional consultant, a financial advisor, a financial planner, or an affiliate of a financial advisor or financial planner, who has client assets invested with the Fund or the Adviser at the time of the investor’s application;
    2. Investors purchasing Fund shares through a sponsored fee-based program where shares of the Fund are made available to that program pursuant to an agreement with FPA Funds or UMB Distribution Services, LLC, and FPA Funds or UMB Distribution Services, LLC has notified the sponsor of that program, in writing, that shares may be offered through such program and has not withdrawn that notification;
    3. Investors transferring or “rolling over” into a Fund IRA from an employee benefit plan through which the investor held shares of the Fund (if an investor’s plan doesn’t qualify for rollovers an investor may still open a new account with all or part of the proceeds of a distribution from the plan);
    4. Investors that are an employee benefit plan or other type of corporate or charitable account sponsored by or affiliated with an organization that also sponsors or is affiliated with (or is related to an organization that sponsors or is affiliated with) another employee benefit plan or corporate or charitable account that is a shareholder of the Fund; or
    5. Investors participating in an employee benefit plan that is already a Fund shareholder.
    The Fund may ask you to verify that you meet one of the categories above prior to permitting you to open a new account in the Fund. The Fund may permit you to open a new account if the Fund reasonably believes that you are eligible. The Fund also may decline to permit you to open a new account if the Fund believes that doing so would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders, even if you would be eligible to open a new account under these guidelines.
    The Fund’s ability to impose the guidelines above with respect to accounts held by financial intermediaries may vary depending on the systems capabilities of those intermediaries, applicable contractual and legal restrictions and cooperation of those intermediaries.
    The Fund continues to reinvest dividends and capital gain distributions with respect to the accounts of existing shareholders who elect such options.
    The Fund may recommence at any time the offering of shares to all investors if the Board of Directors believes it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders.
    Federal regulations may require the Fund to obtain your name, your date of birth (for a natural person), your residential street address or principal place of business and your Social Security Number, Employer Identification Number or other government issued identification when you open an account. Additional information may be required in certain circumstances or to open accounts for corporations or other entities, and certain information regarding beneficial ownership will be verified, including information about beneficial owners of such entities. The Fund may use this information to attempt to verify your identity and, for legal entities, the identity of beneficial owners. The Fund may not be able to establish an account if the necessary information is not received. The Fund may also place limits on account transactions while it is in the process of attempting to verify your identity and, for legal entities, the identity of beneficial owners. Additionally, if the Fund is unable to verify the identity of you or your beneficial owners after your account is established, the Fund, the Fund's distributor and the Fund's transfer agent each reserve the right to reject further purchase orders from you or to take such other action as they deem reasonable or required by law, including closing your account. If your account is closed for this reason, your shares will be redeemed at the NAV next calculated on the date your account is closed, and you bear the risk of loss.
    Effective August 1, 2020, the section titled “How to Buy Fund Shares” on page 25 of the Prospectus is hereby deleted in its entirety.
    PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    FPA New Income, Inc. (FPNIX)
    Supplement dated July 13, 2020 to the
    Statement of Additional Information dated January 31, 2020
    This Supplement amends information in the Statement of Additional Information (the “SAI”) for the FPA New Income, Inc. (the “Fund”), dated January 31, 2020. You should retain this Supplement and the Prospectus for future reference. Additional copies of the SAI may be obtained free of charge by visiting our web site at www.fpa.com or calling us at (800) 638-3060.
    Effective August 1, 2020, on page 50 of the SAI, the following language is added to the section titled “Purchase, Redemption and Pricing of Shares”:
    Limited Availability to New Investors. The availability of shares of the Fund to new investors is limited. See the section titled, “Limited Availability to New Investors” in the Prospectus for a complete description of categories of shareholders eligible to purchase shares of the Fund.
    The Fund continues to accept additional investments from existing shareholders, and continues to reinvest dividends and capital gain distributions with respect to the accounts of existing shareholders who elect such options.
    The Fund may recommence at any time the offering of shares to all investors if the Board of Directors believes it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders.
    PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • How Did Members First Find MFO? IOW What Got You Here?
    Like Old_Joe I found FundAlarm through WSJ. The 3-alarm was very useful to avoid the hits and miss approach I was using. The monthly commentary was always informative. I run across MFO being referenced in other financial articles.
  • The muni market overall is set for more gains, but some bonds are riskier than they appear
    While I generally try to take a longer view rather than be unduly influenced by (relatively) recent experiences, I admit upfront to being biased here by the 2008 collapse of the muni bond insurers.
    ISTM that insurers can provide a valuable service when they spread their risks and payouts are isolated. But results can be disastrous in the face of a systemic failure.
    ...[T]he low frequency of municipal bond defaults made the insurance business seem quite safe. Insurers responded by increasing their leverage—using less capital to insure more bonds—and diversifying into the more profitable business of insuring structured finance debt instruments such as collateralized debt obligations (CDOs).
    Structured finance proved fatal to most insurers during the financial crisis. Defaults on CDOs backed by subprime mortgages resulted in numerous claims on the insurance companies’ thin layers of capital, which (at least in the case of MBIA) was less than 1 percent of insured par. As a result, all insurers either became insolvent or suffered multiple notch downgrades. At the beginning of 2008, Moody’s rated seven bond insurers Aaa; none carried this rating by the end of 2010.
    Since 2012, only three insurers have been active, and none were rated higher than AA/Aa by the major rating agencies.
    https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/mercatus-kriz-joffe-municipal-bond-insurance-v1a.pdf
    Muni bond insurance appears to be in the throes of adverse selection. The market for coverage of new issues peaked at 57% in 2005 [ibid.], and is now at just 5-6%. Adverse selection occurs when the "healthiest" issuers opt out because they'd rather not subsidize the risk of the "sickest" (lowest rated) issuers.
    The insurers seem to be focusing more these days on their muni bond coverage. So while they don't have CDO exposure, a systemic problem in the muni market could sink them this time. Especially given the lower (still investment) grade bonds that they are likely insuring.
    For example, MMIN's top holding, Phenix City Alabama Brd Ed Sch Tax Wts 4.0%, due 8/1/2037T (CUSIP 717335CC5) has an underlying rating of A+ according to S&P. (See EMMA for ratings)
    I'm not knocking the value of the insurance for isolated defaults. I am wondering about the value if the concern is municipal risk in general.
  • Commentary: China has already peaked and faces economic stagnation
    The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that China has yet to break through the material science that goes into the latest microscopic chips, despite throwing money at the challenge of successive programs, the latest commanding over $ 20 billion of dollars. Its high-end chip industry is ten years behind, but in ten years the infrastructure for global cyber dominance will already be in place.In short, the United States controls the global semiconductor ecosystem, working closely with Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. All Washington had to do at the end of May was to move their fingers and TCMS of Taiwan instantly cut the chips to Huawei, suddenly condemning the company’s global G5 quest.
    Britain cannot stay with Huawei even if it wants to. US Congress Won’t Authorize Branch of Chinese State – Serving Xi’s Doctrine civil-military merger – acquire global control over a key technological break point.
    China is already in Germany...Any telecommunications group aiming to pursue Huawei’s G5 plans in these circumstances commits financial suicide. Deutsche Telekom internal documents speak of “Armageddon” if the German firm is forced to replace 3 billion euros of Huawei equipment already installed. Armageddon is what they are going to get.
    https://fr24news.com/a/2020/07/china-has-already-peaked-and-faces-economic-stagnation.html
  • Why Own T-Bills?
    Mr. Seed is able to provide interesting data and thoughts.
    With his knowledge of the bond world, he indeed should be a very wealthy man.
    'Course, this statement:
    "Summary: Don’t Listen to Bloomberg, Treasuries Aren’t for Everyone, at Least at These Rates."
    He does note the money that can be made during falling yields, but IMHO; he could have dedicated a few more words regarding this.
    I'm reminded of the period of falling yields after the melt in 2008. At the time, I also watched some CNBC tv. The commentators would mention falling Treasury yields and a fairly standard verbal statement would be, "you're not going to get much for your money with those." These folks, I presume; have enough financial wisdom to know what happens to bond pricing when the yields are falling. I watched numerous times expecting one of them to say that when yields are falling you may make good money from the price increases. Nope !!!
    And from where do folks think a lot of the price appreciation arrives for the more plain vanilla balanced funds, be they moderate or conservative, during these past decades. Sure........the bonds.
    Two and one half years chart of BAGIX v AGG v SPY . I used this time period, as 2018 had several bumps for equity, not counting the big bump on Christmas eve of 2018. So, if one held a decent bond fund or even the etf AGG, your holdings on those clunky bonds provided, eh? The point for the etf, is that these can provide, too; although I prefer a proven active managed bond fund at this time. Using sector etf's in bondland will allow one to build whatever mix you choose. Choices for a mixer are vast, as never before.
    Lastly, we've traveled this bond turf many times. If you feel that yields may continue to move lower, you'll make money with quality bonds. If the hot equity market is going to melt, you'll likely do well with Treasury issues. If you are sure yields are going to move higher, then time to assess whatever bonds you're invested. If one finds an alternate, long/short or other magic box fund that is of interest, compare its life span to say a, FBALX or even VWINX to discover the ability of the fund to provide for profits.
    Some of the investment grade bond funds have been flat for a few weeks (too much money after equity, I suspect). This week has found more positive moves (price). Perhaps the bond folks are buying on the cheap, or hedging that equity is a bit too hot.
    I don't know.
    The ultimate consideration for one's portfolio is capital preservation and that you are comfortable with your choices. More now, than ever before; one has every which way to customize a portfolio.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • what do you call T. Rowe Price?
    For us we have Vanguard 13 years, schwab 11 years, and merrilledge 7 years. All are easy to talk to representatives, low cost trading, good bonddesks, schwab offers excellence research for stocks/mutual funds. All maintenance fees extremely low (for instance merrilledge charge you 0.7% annually fees but you need only 100ks And 1%if less 100k in acct [rest can be self managed without financial advisor])
    Mama has Fidelity and we use it to buy etf and bonds, its reasonable but I heard they have best cd/ visa cards 2% cash back
    Which firms do you folks prefer
    A decade ago I looked fairly closely into different brokerages' bond services. What I found at the time was that while offerings were of course different, they tended to rely on third party services for inventory. So their offerings at any given time, while different, were similar. Fidelity would offer the same bonds at a lower price than Schwab.
    Things may have changed, but a very small spot check (1 bond) suggests that this pricing differential remains. Calif (Sacramento) muni, callable starting in two years, maturing in five, CUSIP 786073BG0. Schwab price: 118.636 (2.394% YTW), Fidelity price: 118.536 [sic] (2.407% YTW). Both charge a $1/bond commission. I've bought bonds at Fidelity. Because of the higher cost, I haven't at Schwab.
    If you're looking at keeping $100K at Merrill, BofA credit cards can come out better. Their cash rewards cards (with the $100K balance) pay 5.25% on the category of your choice (e.g. online purchases), 3.5% on grocery and warehouse purchases, and 1.75% on everything else. (The higher rebates are limited to $2500 in purchases/quarter). Of it you travel a bit (which can include mass transit, zoos(!) and other oddities), there's a cash back card that pays 2.625% on everything. The catch there is that the rebate must be used to cover travel costs.
    With respect to mutual funds, Merrill Edge is limited in its offerings. Essentially, just NTF share classes are available. So you can't buy lower cost institutional shares even if the total cost of ownership would be less for you. Fidelity and Schwab are better in this regard. Fidelity also enable you to buy additional shares of a TF fund for $5 while at Schwab it's still $50. Vanguard's advantage is that it offers some institutional shares with lower mins than at Fidelity or Schwab. My impression is that T. Rowe Price's third party fund offerings are slim, but TRP hasn't posted its "catalogue" for years.
    ETF and stock trading are free at Merrill, Fidelity, Schwab, and Vanguard. At TRP they can cost $20, unless the ETF is on their NTF list.
    IMHO where TRP shines is in it broad offering of fine mutual funds. Essentially what @rforno said. In addition, it offers a free individual 401(k) plan with Roth option, as does Vanguard. Schwab doesn't allow Roths, nor does Fidelity. Merrill doesn't offer a free individual 401k.
    I've found TRP's service to be on par with Fidelity and Schwab. I have found service at Merrill and Vanguard wanting.
  • what do you call T. Rowe Price?
    Is Trow better than Vanguard Fidelity? What are their best qualities
    For us we have Vanguard 13 years, schwab 11 years, and merrilledge 7 years. All are easy to talk to representatives, low cost trading, good bonddesks, schwab offers excellence research for stocks/mutual funds. All maintenance fees extremely low (for instance merrilledge charge you 0.7% annually fees but you need only 100ks And 1%if less 100k in acct [rest can be self managed without financial advisor])
    Mama has Fidelity and we use it to buy etf and bonds, its reasonable but I heard they have best cd/ visa cards 2% cash back
    Which firms do you folks prefer
  • what do you call T. Rowe Price?
    That's actually a question from one of their reps. In our TMSRX profile, I refer to them as "Price." They think of, and hence refer to, themselves as "T. Rowe" or "T. Rowe Price." They admit to seeing "Price" used occasionally in the financial media, but were wondering how investors thought of the firm.
    A funny side note: we publish in WordPress and if the WordPress software sees the freestanding letter "T" as the first character in a paragraph, it interprets that as a command to create a bulleted list out of the rest of the article. On whole, Chip would rather prefer that I not do that.
    Curious, as ever,
    David
  • Which TSP Fund Up 8.65% in 12 Months?
    I agree that @carew888 did a nice job of quickly summarizing what the F fund is and why it performed the way it did. The only thing I'd add to that (I'm not a TSP participant, so please correct me if I'm mistaken), is that divs, cap gains, etc. are already incorporated into the share prices. This is in response to @dstone42's question.
    In this regard, the TSP funds resemble variable annuity portfolios. The TSP funds are not mutual funds and are not required to distribute their earnings in the form of dividends. "The net earnings are reflected in the share price of the funds."
    https://www.tsp.gov/InvestmentFunds/FundsOverview/earningsComponents.html
    I’d be loath to criticize the content, but neither is the financial insight / information equivalent to what you’d find on this board generally, or at any mainstream financial information-based service like the WSJ, Bloomberg, Barron’s, etc.
    I'm not so loathe :-). The FedSmith content includes:
    With the large spending stimulus in 2020, there is a possibility of inflation returning as a new reality. If that should occur, bonds could turn out to be a wise investment.
    Fidelity (and virtually any mainstream financial service) writes:
    Inflationary conditions generally lead to a higher interest rate environment. Therefore, inflation has the same effect as interest rates. When the inflation rate rises, the price of a bond tends to drop, because the bond may not be paying enough interest to stay ahead of inflation.
    https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/fixed-income-bonds/bond-prices-rates-yields
  • Which TSP Fund Up 8.65% in 12 Months?
    I'm a federal retiree with a TSP account. The F fund is an index fund based on the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. IIRC, the duration is around 4.5. The 8.65 1 year return reflects capital gains from falling interest rates, similar to the gains recorded by core bond funds/intermediate bond funds.
    +1
    FedSmith is an advertising-based publication directed at Federal employees and retirees from what I can make out. It reminds me a bit of the publications sent free of charge to me from organizations like AARP and NEA / MEA (related due to prior employment). I’d be loath to criticize the content of any of these. They mean well. But neither do they provide the depth of financial insight / information you’d find on this board generally, or at any mainstream financial information service like WSJ, Bloomberg, Barron’s, etc. That may be because FedSmith (and the ones I cited above) are aimed at a broader, less financially astute population.
    Excellent point about the declining interest rate trend we’ve grown accustomed to. If you’re under 50 you may not even remember previous decades of generally rising interest rates (assuming you can only remember such things back to when you were 20). Some of us who lived through and were investing during the 70s and 80s can assure you that what you’ve lived through is somewhat of an aberration as interest rates go. Rates can and do go in either direction - rising or falling. Someone here recently mentioned paying a 12 or 14% rate on a mortgage for a first time home.
    The fund referenced in the article sounds a lot like the T Rowe Price U S Bond Enhanced Index Fund (PBDIX) which I happen to own. As bond funds go, its fairly “safe” holding all / mostly investment grade bonds having short-intermediate maturities. But in a serious ramp-up of interest rates it would certainly lose money,
  • How the Fed is driving savers to riskier investments
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/30/stocks-interest-rate-fed/
    How the Fed is driving savers to riskier investments
    The Federal Reserve’s efforts to buoy the economy and stabilize financial markets are working nicely for now — but we are in for a bumpy ride
  • MetWest Flexible Income Fund - MWFEX, MWFSX
    BigTom, I do see this fund as aggressive for a bond holding, but I think there is room for aggressive bond funds within an overall portfolio, especially when managers like Scott Minerd are saying stocks are priced for perfection but there is still value in certain sectors of fixed income.
    JayRock82,
    If you are comfortable with the risks associated with holding illiquid bonds in a MF than go ahead and purchase it. I will say that chasing enticing yields or returns in a bond fund can be detrimental to your portfolio. In certain financial conditions, these funds can drop 20% or more in a couple of weeks. Typically, bonds are used to stabilize a portfolio (less risk) and equity is used to increase risk and returns. It's a personal decision that only you can make if you want to add risk to the bond side of your portfolio.
    As for how mwfex/mwfsx fund can have such a high yield, only a portfolio manager can truly tell you how the portfolio is positioned to obtain that high yield.
    It's true that you can look at MF portfolio holdings to see where some of that yield may be coming from but those holding are usually a 3+ months old.
    Some funds use derivatives, leverage and/or high yielding/illiquid bonds to juice returns.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show - with Consuelo Mack
    The following episodes are all with David Rosenberg.
    June 12th Episode:

    June 19th Episode:

    June 26th Episode:
    From where I sit, there are things I do like even if I’m not a buyer of the Dow, S&P 500 or Nasdaq outright. I still like growth over value; I like essentials over cyclicals; I like “Big Safety”; I like the “homebody” stay-at-home stocks; I like the long end of the Treasury curve; I like Japan as a secular Abe-led turnaround story; I like secular themes tied to medical technology and cyber security investments; ESG is here to stay; and my strongest conviction is in gold and gold stocks (silver too — “ poor man’s gold”). While the Fed may be backstopping the outer limits of the corporate bond market, I wouldn’t touch it. They are so mispriced for the current and prospective default wave, it’s not even funny. If you’re that bullish, just buy stocks. If you want to invest defensively and seek yield, look at preferreds, or the solid dividend yields in selective REITs, telecom with financial depth, and utilities.
    Wealth-Track_Breakfast_with_Dave_2020_06_24.pdf
  • Will there 2nd wave..?
    Howdy folks,
    "will there be a second wave?". Of course there will be a second wave and just like in 1918/1919 it will be MUCH WORSE than the first wave that we're still experiencing. Even if preventative measures hadn't be politicized, we'd STILL be looking at a much worse second wave due to the nature of the beast when it comes to us humans and particularly to us American's. We've all got a huge civil libertarian streak and we just will not and cannot stay inside this long. We gots to get out. We gots to go to the bar. We gots to see our friends and family.
    Add in the politicization of the plague by DT and friends, and it's going to get very, very nasty next winter. Sorry folks, but looking around at all the people not wearing masks and not social distancing (and they probably don't wash their hands the lepers), we're well and truly screwed.
    Next winter in America is going to look like the Black Death. Literally, it will be with carts in the streets, 'bring out your dead'.
    Sorry. I wish I could be more positive, but look around . . .
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    rono
    Obama assembled a brain-trust of smart financial folks, including Tim Geithner, between election day and the inauguration. They met regularly and planned out actions they could take Day #1 to resolve the crisis. At that point the econ was on life-support. Their advance planning and the highly qualified team assembled helped turn things around. Inauguration Day - January 20. Beginning of greatest bull market in history - March 9. No doubt Biden will follow that model as concerns Covid 19 and be ready to hit the ground running.
  • T. Rowe Price 2020 Midyear Market Outlook: Path Ahead For Financial Markets Depends On How Quickl
    https://www.heraldmailmedia.com/news/state/t-rowe-price-2020-midyear-market-outlook-path-ahead-for-financial-markets-depends-on-how/article_356ab962-38a8-59d3-8fc8-91f3dd26301c.html
    T. Rowe Price 2020 Midyear Market Outlook: Path Ahead For Financial Markets Depends On How Quickly Global Economies Navigate Through Pandemic
    By T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. Jun 23, 2020
    BALTIMORE, June 23, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The longest equity bull market in history came to a sudden and shattering end in March as the Covid-19 pandemic killed hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, forced governments to impose a strict and prolonged quarantine of citizens, and plunged the shuttered global economy into recession. By mid-June, some countries began to emerge from quarantine, leading to concerns about a second wave, while some developing market countries continued to see a troubling rise in new infections. The global economy and markets are likely to remain volatile as scientists race to develop effective treatments and to deploy a vaccine in mass quantities, potentially sometime in 2021.
  • President Trump is great for your 401(k): strategist
    l will assert: regardless of financial ANYTHING: Donald Trump is a ball of pus, which deserves ZERO attention in any regard, about ANYTHING. He sucks pus from the penises of armadillos. The Trumpster eats bacteria from anything which can be sucked intentionally from creatures which offer the world semen-laden, dead and rotten pizzles, of various different species--- even of those who may not yet be classified and categorized. The TRUMPSTER does not deserve to LIVE.
  • Learn About The Many Types Of Retirement Income Generators
    helocs ... typically entail an initial draw as well in order to get best term
    With any of these financial "products" you're effectively buying insurance. There are a whole range of possible terms with different tradeoffs of costs, risks, benefits. How likely are you to draw on the line of credit? How long are you going to need that loan? How much sunk cost are you willing to spend to mitigate the risks, and how much risk (how large a draw, certainty that the line is there when you need it) do you want to "insure"?
    Do you want/need a higher line of credit that a proprietary reverse mortgage could provide above a HECM? Is it worth giving up some of the government protections that come with a HECM?
    So it's not necessarily simply opening a line and letting it sit idle for use much later on.
    Exactly.
  • Learn About The Many Types Of Retirement Income Generators
    @bee: Corrected Pfau link
    While I'm generally a fan ofr Dr. Pfau, ISTM he skipped over some details and created some misimpressions. The first is that he appears to use HECM and "reverse mortgage" synonymously. Rather, an HECM is but one of three types of reverse mortgages. Being the most common type, and the one backed by HUD and providing some government protections, it is the type I'd likely look at first. But different types do exist, with different benefits, costs, and risks.
    https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/articles/0192-reverse-mortgages#types
    "With a HECM, the home title is never turned over to the bank." Okay, but so what? One has the same risk of foreclosure regardless of who holds the title. When you buy a home, do you care whether you take out a mortgage (where you keep title), or you borrow the money using a deed of trust (where the trust gets legal title)? While foreclosure procedures differ, you're still subject to foreclosure either way.
    https://www.lendingtree.com/home/mortgage/deed-of-trust-vs-mortgage/
    FWIW, here's what the FTC says about title: "In a reverse mortgage, you keep the title to your home. That means you are responsible for property taxes, insurance, utilities, fuel, maintenance, and other expenses." Of course you'd expect that in any case.
    https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/articles/0192-reverse-mortgages#how
    "They need to have full equity in the home; there can’t be any other lien on the property." HUD begs to differ on HECMs: "You must ... Own the property outright or paid-down a considerable amount"
    https://www.hud.gov/program_offices/housing/sfh/hecm/hecmabou
    Dr Pfau gives four different approaches to managing sequence of return risk (I've cited this before). One is to use a cash buffer.. He describes three different ways of implementing that approach, one of which is to use a reverse mortgage line of credit. What I haven't seen him discuss (perhaps I have not looked hard enough) is why he advocates using a HECM over other types of reverse mortgages, let alone other types of credit.
    ISTM that if you're looking at this for use as a cash buffer - a line of credit for a temporary loan that you might never call upon - a HELOC with lower up front costs could have lower total costs. OTOH, if you're thinking of using a reverse mortgage for something else, then you might still expand your search beyond HECMs. The FTC writes:
    If you’re considering a reverse mortgage, shop around. Decide which type of reverse mortgage might be right for you. That might depend on what you want to do with the money.
    https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/articles/0192-reverse-mortgages#shopping.
    Dr. Pfau mentions using reverse mortgages as a SS bridge (to delay benefits). A 2017 "CFPB report found, in general, the costs and risks of taking out a reverse mortgage exceed the cumulative increase in Social Security lifetime benefits that homeowners would receive by delayed claiming."
    https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/newsroom/cfpb-report-warns-taking-out-reverse-mortgage-loan-can-be-expensive-way-maximize-social-security-benefits/
    Finally, the "gotcha" that concerns me with reverse mortgages (and I like the idea of reverse mortgages if obtained at reasonable cost and rates for a well defined purpose), is that you have to pay the money back when you move. How do you buy a new home if you have spent down your equity? It looks like there is a risk of being locked into your home for life, because you won't have enough equity left to move anywhere else.
    Consumer Financial Protection Bureau: What happens if I have a reverse mortgage [HECM] and I want to sell my home?
    https://www.consumerfinance.gov/ask-cfpb/what-happens-if-i-have-reverse-mortgage-and-i-want-sell-my-home-en-2095/
    HECM risks and disadvantages (citing CFPB): https://www.elderoptionsoftexas.com/article-reverse-mortgage-pros-and-cons.htm