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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Small/mid cap ETF
    DSMC Distillate Small/Mid Cash Flow ETF not much volume, still pretty new, but the strategy is a few years old & has some pretty decent stats.
    https://distillatecapital.com/u-s-small-mid-cap-quality-value/
  • Do stocks outperform Treasury bills?
    A few, but most will not...It all about the mode...
    HOW has the stock market returned 8-10% per year? — is a whole another question.
    And the mode (i.e. the most common data point), rather than the average, tells that story. And answering HOW means looking at characteristics of individual stock performance through time.
    Hendrik Bessembinder did that research. He has looked at the history of about 29,000 stocks in the United States, over the 90 years worth of good data we have for empirical stock analytics. He's also looked, on a slightly shorter time horizon because of available data, at about 64,000 stocks outside the U.S.
    The mode is -100%.
    The most common outcome from buying a stock is that you lose all your money.
    Mind blown? Great. But read on, because it has implications for portfolio design, especially if you're a long-term investor.
    just 86 stocks have accounted for $16 trillion in wealth creation, half of the stock market total, over the past 90 years.
    do-stocks-outperform-treasury-bills
    research paper
    Study
  • Small/mid cap ETF
    Invesco has XMHQ and SMHQ. XMHQ was something else until five years ago. I'm not sure how long SMHQ has been operating with a quality mandate. So just fair warning when you look at their track record.
    Another fund I have been following is CWS.
    I own XMHQ in the IRA and taxable, It's a bit of an E-ticket ride. So far it has bounced back quickly. It has also drifted out of the blend category since I first bought it.
    With a rules-based ETfund you're going to get whatever fits the rules, which may include financials.
    At this link, click on the Comps tab to see other ETfunds that overlap with XMHQ. That should give you a few more ideas.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    For five or six years prior to 2023, CAT bonds (index) returned a total return of 4% or less per year on average. That is not enough return for the risk over such a long period of time. I am guessing the risk premium had to change, increasing the yield (not counting the higher risk free rate) for market to continue to exist for these bonds. Keep us posted so we know when the next cycle starts.
    I am just a bystander on this investment.
    Yes, terrible plight for the people going through hurricane.
  • Was the 401(k) a Mistake
    Promised are "great" until you realize someone else must pay for it, and why businesses stopped offering pensions.
    IMO, all State/Gov/Education pensions should be eliminated over several years
    If a private company offers a pension, it's the company's problem.
    No one should save any pension(Gov,State,Eduaction,Private) that can't support itself. The less money it has, the less they should pay.
    401K is a good idea. You need to take care of yourself. A small monthly amount grows substantially over 3-4 decades. It's called compounding
  • BLNDX On Fire This Year
    @hank, I have watched and analyzed ALT funds, especially AQR funds, for about 15 years. I'm not impressed, and I explained why.
    The only way to avoid big losses is to do timing using special bond funds (PIMIX, IOFIX in the past and others in the last several years), and why it took me many years to master it. I also never play short because markets usually go up.
    I know, you already heard it many times; sorry for that.
  • Extended performance by Morningstar
    Thanks @alban. I don't think the picture would fundamentally change in that situation, as the new share class's 5-year return (pro forma) should approximate the 5-year return of the other share classes, any difference explained by fee differences. So the 1-year returns of all share classes would look good and the 5-year returns of all share classes (including the new one which inherits four of those five years from the older share class returns) would look bad. Apologies if I'm misunderstanding.
    Kind regards,
    Jeff Ptak
    Morningstar Research Services
  • BLNDX On Fire This Year
    Looking at Charles’ fund performance chart, I can not help but ask myself,
    You buy QLEIX at the beginning of 2018 at the then peak performance (just like in 2024) and hold because everyone tells you about its past performance. How did it make you feel over the next 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years?
  • Extended performance by Morningstar
    Thanks folks! Could it be possible that funds time the introduction of new share classes when the markets are doing well. So then extended performance could help avoid buying a share class, which might look good based on its record, but is part of a fund that has had terrible performance, say over the last 5 years or so.
  • BLNDX On Fire This Year
    The 3 years for QLEIX looks good because of 2022. This is where ALT funds excel.
    Then, you have years when they trail and way in the back.
    BY the time most investors realize markets are going down and load on these funds, they miss most of the meltdown, then, they miss the beginning of the uptrend of the regular funds, which is the strongest period.
    It takes discipline to hold funds like that.
    @FD - Have you looked at M* performance numbers? QLEIX +20.71%YTD / +23.75 1 YR. Albeit, it may not have moved much the past 6 months. Since when has 6 months become an appropriate time horizon to measure anything’s performance - except perhaps cash?
    L/S funds come with varying risk profiles. Tough to analyze. But scanning past performance over a number of years may give an indication how much market risk the managers are willing to take.
    QLEIX presently is essentially neutral domestic equities (per *M) showing only 0.69% net invested. It is just slightly positive non-U.S. equities with a net 7% invested. Suggests to me they have gone very defensive nearer term.
    They have a significant net short cash position (about 25%) indicating substantial borrowing to fund the short equity positions. So, interest on loans is eating up some potential gain while they remain essentially neutral on equities.
    I’m here to learn. Have never owned QLEIX. Held two L/S funds going back to ‘21 / ‘22. Sold one off recently in an effort to reduce risk & volatility in an overheated market. Personal factors also played a part in the decision.
  • BLNDX On Fire This Year
    The 3 years for QLEIX looks good because of 2022. This is where ALT funds excel.
    Then, you have years when they trail and way in the back.
    BY the time most investors realize markets are going down and load on these funds, they miss most of the meltdown, then, they miss the beginning of the uptrend of the regular funds, which is the strongest period.
    It takes discipline to hold funds like that.
  • Extended performance by Morningstar
    M* extended methodology is used for many reasons. The second on the list is changing its legal structure.
    Last year, QRSIX was moved from one trust run by FPA to another trust run by FPA. Certainly you would not want M* to drop all performance info prior to mid-2023 simply because of a change in legal structure.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1170611/000110465923062212/a23-16089_1497.htm
    Consider the CREF funds. They launched their cheapest share class, R4, on April 29, 2022. Should M* should ignore all performance prior to two years ago? Certainly people who own the shares could look at the R3 shares and mentally calculate the difference in performance due to costs. But why? M* can do the same thing with virtually no effort.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/qcstfx/performance
    If we can learn nothing from past performance, then why expect M* to report it at all, for new or old share classes?
  • BLNDX On Fire This Year
    QLEIX Flows and Return Last 10 Years
    image

    Just extraordinary case of massive inflows followed by massive outflows. But AQR may find some (anti) redemption this time, looks like.
    While I remain a Cliff fan, I grew skeptical of AQR funds. M* says they've flattened their management structure, reduced size of firm (with attendant outflows), and Cliff is again involved in daily ops.
    I noticed too that the AQR has slowly migrated from middle to top on our fund family score card ... 90% of their 22 funds have beaten their peers last 3 years.
  • Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 10/1/24
    @Sven Would you mind telling where you moved to ? I'm thinking I'll keep rolling CD's & T-bills , while adding to some of the MF's I own. Looking a few years back & I can remember collecting 3% on a two year CD.
  • Was the 401(k) a Mistake
    @mskursh, you have done your fellow employees a great favor to find a decent 401(k) provider, especially form smaller companies with limited resources.
    Last company I worked for has a pension plan but it was poorly managed so that the $ grew very slowly even in the 90’s bull market. Whereas the 401(k) plan was much better in terms of choices (anctive annd passive managed funds) and company matching. Through the years we managed to obtain respectable returns. Near the end of our tenure with the company, they eliminated their contribution to the pension plan and increased their company matching %. Fortunately, it worked out in our favor. Today, there are few pension plan in the private sector unless you work for the state or federal government.
    Is 401(k) worth it? Absolutely, one can do well navigating their future and investment. If you are fortunate to have a good pension, congratulations! AlsoI agree with you that 401k is responsible for more millionaires today.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    There is dirty energy and then there is dirtier energy; and "clean" and renewable energy; and then there is energy which comes from a source which produces waste which will have to be juggled and dealt with for 90,000 years into the future. There's only so many useful glass receptacles you can create in order to make the lethal, dangerous fallout inert.
    Everyone's invited into my fraternity: MUTANTS FOR NUKES.
    Our logo: a Happy Face with one ear.
  • Rondure New World Fund will be liquidated
    From an email that I received from Rondure ("Final Shareholder Letter"):
    September 25, 2024
    Dear Fellow Shareholders:
    It is with heavy hearts and thoughtful consideration that we inform you that the Rondure New World Fund (RNWOX/RNWIX) will be liquidated on October 18, 2024, and with this closure, we will also be closing Rondure Global Advisors.
    The economic landscape of our emerging markets-focused strategies has been challenging for some time. Our entire team has been dedicated to facing those challenges with the constant objective to achieve long-term positive returns for our clients and investors. Unfortunately, recent unforeseen developments within our business have forced us to reevaluate our ability to continue. It is a painful outcome and certainly not a decision we anticipated ever having to make, particularly when we think emerging markets remain such an interesting and compelling long-term investment. We did not make this decision lightly, but ultimately, consideration of the economic and operational realities of continuing the firm have led us to realize closing is the best outcome for our clients.
    As an investor in the Rondure New World Fund, you have two options: a) redeem your account prior to October 18, 2024, or b) receive a check for the value of the account shortly after October 18th. Note: If you hold the New World Fund in a taxable account, the IRS will consider either option to be a taxable event.
    We would like to thank you for all the years together. It was truly a pleasure serving you; we wish we could continue. We are proud of Rondure and the contribution we’ve made to international investing and diversity within our industry. If you, like us, remain intrigued by the long-term opportunities in the emerging markets space, we have talked with Grandeur Peak Global Advisors about allowing Rondure clients to invest in their soft closed Grandeur Peak Emerging Markets Fund (GPEIX). If you’re interested in exploring this option, please reach out to [email protected] to discuss their Fund and a purchase waiver.
    Please let us know if we can be of assistance through this transition, or feel free to call the Rondure Funds shareholder services team at 1-855-775-3337.
    Thank you for your understanding and support.
    Best regards,
    The Rondure Global Advisors Team
    Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. An investor should consider investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. To obtain a Rondure Fund prospectus, containing this and other information, visit www.rondureglobal.com or call 1.855.775.3337. To obtain a Grandeur Peak Funds prospectus, containing investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses, visit www.grandeurpeakglobal.com or call 1-855-377-PEAK (7325).
    Rondure Funds and Grandeur Peak Funds are distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC (Member FINRA / SIPC). Northern Lights Distributors, LLC, is not affiliated with Rondure Global Advisors or Grandeur Peak Global Advisors.
    20240911-3842017
  • First Eagle Global Equity and First Eagle Overseas Equity ETFs in registration
    I have owned their mutual fund SGIIX for many years. The ETF would work better for me as Fidelity charges $49 for each buy and zero for stock transactions.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    Blog - https://bilello.blog/2024/the-week-in-charts-9-25-24
    These got my attention -
    The 20% gain in the S&P 500 is the best start to a year since 1997 and 17th best in history.
    Retail sales grew 2.1% over the last year, well below the historical average of 4.6%. And if we adjust for higher prices, they actually fell 0.5% versus the typical inflation-adjusted gain of 2%.
    The Personal Savings Rate in the US has moved down to 2.9% . . .The average savings rate over the last 30 years is 5.8%.
    The months’ supply of Existing Homes has moved up to 4.2
    [If I remove from the chart the 2005 to 2012 years supply skewed by housing fraud, 4.2 months supply looks pretty normal to me on the chart. Existing home supply seems pretty good and if there is not enough demand, then watch for prices to come down.]
  • Was the 401(k) a Mistake
    Hi @mskursh Welcome to MFO. I think you'll find this forum of value.
    And 'hats off to you' for helping co-workers have a better understanding of investing.
    401k's and/or 403b's are surely not perfect depending on the plan sponsor and the amount of support by the employer; but I saw too many over many years who wouldn't have saved a dime if not for having a 401k/403b plan available. And, of course; some will never learn or have prudent spending/saving habits.
    I operated an investment club within a small office and convinced 15 of 25 people to place $100/month into the account and I would manage the money. I also provided a monthly report of all values and totals; and where and why the money was invested. The club operated from 1985 to about 1992, until disbanded by vote. But, the $100/month formed good habits for many; and this helped them later when a 401k plan became available.
    Remain curious,
    Catch