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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Do You Really Need 'Private' Investments? (Independent Vanguard Adviser, 05.27.2025)
    I don’t trust most fiduciaries. Just because someone holds that title doesn’t guarantee they’ll act in your best interest—or that their advice is good. Yes, it’s better than working with someone who isn’t obligated to prioritize you, but it’s far from a safety net. Some fiduciaries still charge high fees, push unnecessary products, or underperform.
    This is what I feel about financial advisors. See (link).
    I always remind people. that while its better than nothing, keep in mind that all lawyers technically have a fiduciary responsbility to you as well.
    but the catch 22 in that link is correct. most people have 0 idea how well their financial advisor is doing.
  • AI could be capable of managing financial accounts autonomously within approximately five years.
    How is using AI any different than the "Robo Advisors" people sign up for at Robinhood or Schwab "Intelligent Advisors"
    They might be more responsive and able to learn your investing behavior by watching what you do as oppose to what you say you will do.
    this is likely going to mostly affect folks that mange smaller account for 0.3% for example.
    But maybe it will put cost pressure on the higher end fees too!
    People who depend on "financial Planning" will be most affected I think.
    It is hard to get an answer about IRMAA and income levels for example but AI could automate this easily. Of course anybody with minimal Excel knowledge can write a spreadsheet too; it is hard to understand why more are not avaliable
  • AI could be capable of managing financial accounts autonomously within approximately five years.
    Investors should be wary of giving discretion to their brokers or financial advisors.
    Double that for futuristic AI-Advisors.
    The best I can see is to use AI financial tools to generate alerts that I can review & then decide to do something or not.
  • AI could be capable of managing financial accounts autonomously within approximately five years.
    Hard pass. I'm perfectly capable of messing up my financial situation enough on my own TYVM.
  • AI could be capable of managing financial accounts autonomously within approximately five years.
    @Catch22- Hello there. Glad to see you posting a lot more. A question about the above- so much of financial success comes at the expense of the party on the other side of a trade. Assuming for the sake of discussion that everyone has the same AI advantage, how is that going to work out? Granted, financial success doesn't always require a "loser", but it sure seems that a lot does.
  • AI could be capable of managing financial accounts autonomously within approximately five years.
    I'd still be asking questions here for real world, brain power resolutions.
    Enjoy.....
    --- Based on statements from MIT researchers and experts, there's a strong belief that AI could be capable of managing financial accounts autonomously within approximately five years.
    Specifically:
    Andrew Lo, a finance professor and AI expert at MIT, believes large language models (LLMs) could have the technical ability to make real investment decisions for clients within five years. He envisions a future where AI can meet fiduciary standards, understand human emotions, and learn from feedback.
    He also emphasizes the importance of human-machine collaboration, suggesting that combining human intuition with AI's capabilities could lead to optimal financial strategies.
    Other MIT Sloan researchers highlight the increasing use of AI in finance, particularly for research, automation, and personalization of financial strategies, making insights more accessible and affordable.
    While there's enthusiasm, it's also recognized that implementing AI in this context presents challenges, including reliability in high-stakes decision-making and ethical considerations, according to Bloomberg AI.
    In summary, MIT experts like Andrew Lo foresee the potential for AI to autonomously manage financial accounts within the next five years, emphasizing the crucial role of AI meeting fiduciary standards and the benefits of human-machine collaboration in this evolving landscape.
  • PDT rule getting revamped - and significantly loosened
    Per BBG:
    US regulators are finalizing plans to replace a controversial rule that would dramatically lower a threshold for retail investors to trade equities and options more often.
    The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority is looking to rework the “pattern day trading” rule that limits investors with less than $25,000 in their margin account from borrowing to trade four or more times in a five-day period. In a proposal being prepared for Finra’s board to eventually vote on, retail investors would need to have only $2,000 in their accounts for such trades.

    Full archived article @ https://archive.ph/cUNhk
  • CrossingBridge’s 2Q25 Investor Commentary entitled “United We Stand, Divided We Deal”
    Please find the link for CrossingBridge’s 2Q25 Investor Commentary entitled “United We Stand, Divided We Deal”: https://blog.crossingbridgefunds.com/blog/q2-2025-commentary-united-we-stand-divided-we-deal
    Feel free to share widely – it’s not just for financial folks.
  • Dollar Concerns
    I have had no interest in cryptocurrency because of fraud and theft. Stablecoins are growing in popularity. I have concerns over them becoming a shadow banking system and increasing financial instability. At my age, I don't expect to use them during my lifetime, but they warrant following for their potential impact on the global financial system.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/are-stablecoins-a-threat-to-the-us-dollar-dominance-what-it-means-for-your-wallet/ar-AA1IFgDU?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=DCTS&cvid=9a2830067523446cb167f6888e00dc4c&ei=25
    "Dollar-backed stablecoins could help reinforce the U.S. dollar's dominance in global finance, but their rapid growth brings new risks to financial stability, consumer protection, and monetary sovereignty.
    For everyday users, stablecoins offer speed and access, but also expose them to new forms of uncertainty. “The big risk is that people will get to feel comfortable holding wealth in stablecoins under the assumption they are secure and well-regulated," Baker [co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research] warned. "They may then find that their specific stablecoin was not stable and they are suddenly holding a near-worthless asset.”
  • Morningstar Digest July 17 top story is about politics and the markets,,,, Is that OK to talk about
    At Hank. My point,, if I failed to explain it correctly, was the an outfit like M* which is not part of the lunatic left,,, was clearly linking political action to market risk. Today, another non lunatic left source, CNBC has a similar story about the same possible market risks. So my point is was simply that the mainstream, establishment financial media is now warning of increased market risks driven by political action. If they can consider this non normal risk, shouldn’t we on MFO do the same? We talk about interest rates, we talk about valuations. These aren’t normal times and political risk is something investors of all three parties should consider.
  • Do You Really Need 'Private' Investments? (Independent Vanguard Adviser, 05.27.2025)
    I don’t trust most fiduciaries. Just because someone holds that title doesn’t guarantee they’ll act in your best interest—or that their advice is good. Yes, it’s better than working with someone who isn’t obligated to prioritize you, but it’s far from a safety net. Some fiduciaries still charge high fees, push unnecessary products, or underperform.
    This is what I feel about financial advisors. See (link).
    I also distrust fiduciaries and absolutely don't trust state-appointed pension/investment board. Which is why I opted for the 403b instead of the state pension -- if I'm going to make or lose my money, I want to be the one responsible.
  • Do You Really Need 'Private' Investments? (Independent Vanguard Adviser, 05.27.2025)
    I don’t trust most fiduciaries. Just because someone holds that title doesn’t guarantee they’ll act in your best interest—or that their advice is good. Yes, it’s better than working with someone who isn’t obligated to prioritize you, but it’s far from a safety net. Some fiduciaries still charge high fees, push unnecessary products, or underperform.
    This is what I feel about financial advisors. See (link).
  • Morningstar Digest July 17 top story is about politics and the markets,,,, Is that OK to talk about
    First, where’s the link to the article? I don’t see it. Did I miss it?
    Second, most investors should ignore politics, headlines, and constant media noise. You don’t invest based on emotion or ideology—you invest based on your financial goals and what the markets are actually doing. That part is simple.
    I’ve shared my thoughts. Earlier in the year Value, International, and CEFs (like PDI). After the bear market bounce in mid-April, US Large Cap tilting Growth (VOO, QQQ).
    With my own portfolio and not recommended to anyone. I never diversify since 1990. I’ve always focused on top-performing wide-range categories with strong risk/reward profiles. I’m a trader and a timer—used to own a very high percentage in stock funds, but since retirement, I mostly own bond OEFs.
    Examples:
    I sold PIMIX in Jan 2018 and never looked back.
    I closely track Crossbridge funds.
    In 2024, I used HOSIX, CLOZ, and CBYYX for the first time ever.
    In 2025, I allocated a huge percentage to international bonds—also a first—and I lightened up lately. I don’t forecast—I just follow the data and what the market is showing.
    Constant complaining and trashing others doesn’t help anyone get better results.
  • Dollar Concerns
    Hi @yogibearbull Thank you for you reporting on the serious piece(s) of legislation. I'll add with some redundancy.
    The GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins), signed into law by President Donald Trump on July 18, 2025, establishes the first federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins in the United States. The Act aims to provide regulatory clarity and foster innovation in the stablecoin market while safeguarding consumers and bolstering the U.S. dollar's position in global finance.
    Here's a summary of the key provisions and their implications:
    Payment Stablecoins Defined: The Act specifically defines "payment stablecoins" as digital assets designed for payment or settlement, with a stable value pegged to a fixed amount of monetary value, typically the U.S. dollar.
    Dual Regulatory Framework: The Act establishes a dual federal-state system for regulating stablecoin issuers, allowing for both federal and state-level oversight under substantially similar standards, according to a fact sheet from the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. Smaller issuers, with under $10 billion in outstanding issuance, may choose state regulation, provided the state's framework is certified as comparable to the federal standards by the Stablecoin Certification Review Committee.
    Reserve Requirements: The GENIUS Act mandates 100% reserve backing for payment stablecoins with high-quality liquid assets, such as U.S. dollars and short-term Treasuries. These reserves must be held in segregated accounts and cannot be commingled with other assets. Issuers are also prohibited from rehypothecating reserves or using risky assets like corporate debt or equities as backing. Issuers are also required to provide monthly public disclosures of their reserve composition, according to WilmerHale, and larger issuers must submit annual audited financial statements.
    Consumer Protection: The legislation emphasizes consumer protection through various measures:
    Prohibiting misleading marketing: Issuers are barred from claiming their stablecoins are backed by the U.S. government, federally insured, or legal tender.
    Ensuring clear redemption policies: Issuers must publicly disclose redemption policies with clear procedures and transparent fee structures, according to Paul Hastings LLP.

    Prioritizing stablecoin holders in insolvency:
    In bankruptcy, holders of permitted payment stablecoins have priority over other claims regarding reserve assets.
    Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Sanctions Compliance: The Act subjects stablecoin issuers to the Bank Secrecy Act, requiring them to implement robust AML programs, including customer identification, transaction monitoring, and compliance with sanctions regulations. Foreign issuers seeking to operate in the U.S. must meet comparable non-U.S. regulatory standards and comply with U.S. sanctions orders.
    Reinforcing the U.S. Dollar: By requiring stablecoin reserves to be held in U.S. dollars and Treasuries, the Act aims to reinforce the dollar's role as the global reserve currency and potentially increase demand for U.S. government debt.
    Limitations on Stablecoin Activities: Permitted issuers are restricted to activities directly related to issuing, redeeming, and managing stablecoins and their reserves, according to Gibson Dunn. The Act also prohibits the offering of interest or yield on stablecoin holdings.
    Impact on the Crypto Market: The GENIUS Act is expected to pave the way for greater adoption of stablecoins in mainstream financial services. Banks, nonbanks, and credit unions may now more confidently explore issuing their own stablecoins. The Act aims to bridge the gap between traditional finance and the digital asset ecosystem by providing a clear regulatory environment.
    Extraterritorial Reach: The Act asserts U.S. regulatory authority over foreign stablecoin issuers that offer or sell stablecoins to persons located in the United States.
    Effective Date and Rulemaking: While the Act was signed into law on July 18, 2025, many key provisions will not take effect immediately. Federal and state regulators are tasked with issuing implementing regulations within a specified timeframe, and full implementation is anticipated to unfold over several years.
    Overall, the GENIUS Act is a significant step towards integrating stablecoins into the U.S. financial system. While supporters hail it as a move towards innovation and consumer protection, critics express concerns about potential risks and loopholes within the framework.
  • Do You Really Need 'Private' Investments? (Independent Vanguard Adviser, 05.27.2025)
    For the curious. The information is presumed accurate.
    Investing in private equity through a 401(k) plan is a relatively new and evolving concept that has generated discussion among investors and industry professionals.
    Here's what to know:
    Potential Benefits:
    Higher Returns: Private equity has historically shown the potential for higher returns compared to public markets, according to SmartAsset. Private equity funds have delivered an average annual return of 13.1% over the previous 25 years, compared to the S&P 500's average return of 8.6% during the same period. This outperformance is often attributed to private equity's focus on undervalued companies, real estate, and infrastructure, which may be less exposed to market volatility.
    Diversification: Adding private equity to a 401(k) can provide diversification beyond traditional stocks and bonds, potentially mitigating risk and offering exposure to assets less correlated with public markets.
    Access to previously inaccessible assets: For individual investors, private equity investments have traditionally been limited to institutional and high-net-worth investors due to high entry barriers and complexity. Expanding 401(k) options could provide access to these alternative investment vehicles.
    Potential Risks:
    Illiquidity: Private equity investments are illiquid, meaning they are difficult to sell quickly or easily, often requiring capital lock-ups for several years. This can be a concern for individuals needing quick access to their retirement savings.
    High Fees: Private equity funds typically charge higher fees compared to traditional mutual funds and ETFs. These fees can erode returns, especially over the long term. Private equity funds often charge a management fee (around 2%) plus a share of the profits (around 20%).
    Complexity and Lack of Transparency: Private equity involves complex investment strategies and less regulatory oversight and transparency compared to publicly traded assets, making it harder to assess and value these investments.
    Volatility: While long-term returns may be higher, short-term fluctuations in private equity valuations can be significant.
    Regulatory Landscape and Future Outlook:
    The Department of Labor (DOL) has issued guidance regarding private equity investments in 401(k) plans, allowing their inclusion within professionally managed funds like target-date funds.
    However, the DOL also emphasizes the need for fiduciaries to carefully consider the risks and ensure appropriate safeguards, including disclosure, valuations, and addressing liquidity concerns.
    Recent reports suggest potential further loosening of regulations, potentially allowing more direct access to private equity within 401(k)s. This has generated debate about the appropriate balance between expanding access to potentially higher returns and protecting retirement savers from undue risks.
    Some major investment firms, including BlackRock and Empower, are already planning to offer private equity options within target-date funds or other professionally managed 401(k) options in the near future. BlackRock estimates that adding private assets could boost returns by approximately 50 basis points per year and increase the total value of a 401(k) by 15% over 40 years.
    Important Considerations for Investors:
    Consult a Financial Advisor: It is crucial to seek advice from a qualified financial advisor to understand the complexities and risks involved before considering private equity investments in your 401(k).
    Risk Tolerance and Time Horizon: Private equity is generally suited for younger investors with a longer time horizon and a higher risk tolerance, as it involves greater volatility and illiquidity.
    Fees and Liquidity: Carefully evaluate the fee structure and liquidity terms of any private equity fund before investing.
    Diversification and Allocation: Consider a limited, strategic allocation to private equity within a diversified retirement portfolio, as advised by financial professionals. Some experts suggest limiting private market exposure to 5-10% for most investors.
    AI responses may include mistakes. For financial advice, consult a professional.
  • Dollar Concerns
    I just finished part one of "Our Dollar Your Problem" by Kenneth Rogoff which looks at dollar dominance and the future of the dollar. The dollar is used in about 90% of global trades, but the US economy has declined to about 25% of the global economy. Counties have historically had the dominant "safe asset" for about 200 years, so the US is past the mid-point.
    Gross Federal debt now stands at 119% of GDP which is the highest level since WWII. All three rating agencies have lowered the rating on Federal debt. Clearly, there is room for some concern that the US will continue the current slow trend of losing dollar dominance, but the timing is uncertain.
    The price to earnings ratio of S&P 500 is currently 29.5 which puts it at the highest 95th percentile since WWII. The S&P500 has returned 7% in 2025 compared to 17% for large cap international core funds while the P/E of international stocks is about a third lower than the S&P 500. Being overweight international stocks has really helped diversified portfolios this year.
    The purported role of stablecoin is to have a more stable currency backed method of reducing the cost of global trade. The global financial system will look dramatically different fifty years from now. The dollar has declined 10% year to date. Purchasing agents often have the ability to purchase goods in other currencies in addition to the dollar.
  • Morningstar Digest July 17 top story is about politics and the markets,,,, Is that OK to talk about
    The Schwab recommendation is pretty close to what we have done, although we didn't rely on Schwab or any other specific input for our decisions.
    Now in our 80s, at the moment our "reserve savings" are 57% MMKT and 43% fixed income. The fixed is divided into 53% short & medium term Treasury, and 47% CDs. All of the reserve savings are for income, and all will be held to maturity, so the daily valuation gyrations are not really a factor for us.
    We are able to forgo the stock exposure because our SS & pension income is sufficient to cover our normal expenses, with a bit left over to increase the reserve savings and help offset inflation. I guess that you could call our category "Ultra Conservative".
    Being in our 80s we do wake up a number of times from sleep, but it's not because of financial worry.
    :)
  • Do You Really Need 'Private' Investments? (Independent Vanguard Adviser, 05.27.2025)
    I have seen reports that there is one Executive Order coming to allow private-equity in 401k and another to just call soccer football (may be the other could be called American football).
    FIFA gave the prez a trophy and a medal. I wonder what he's getting out of the financial industry?
  • Westinghouse Nukes
    I'm not aware of any significant safety problems with the Westinghouse reactors, and a quick DuckDuckGo came up with nothing relating to safety concerns, but plenty with respect to financial misadventure.
    With respect to RCA, it's parentage was actually pretty motley:
    The RCA Corporation (RCA), founded in 1919 as the Radio Corporation of America, was a major American electronics company during most of the 20th century. Initially RCA was a patent trust owned by a partnership of General Electric (GE), Westinghouse, AT&T Corporation and United Fruit Company. It became an independent company in 1932 after the partners agreed to divest their ownerships in settling an antitrust lawsuit by the United States
    (From Wikipedia)