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A key concern with generic quality strategies is that they use poor definitions, which are
sometimes even blended with other factors. For example, quality is often measured by
financial leverage or earnings stability, which are actually more related to the low volatility
factor. Other quality definitions – such as growth in profitability or earnings growth, but
also an oft-used measure like return on equity (ROE) – have weak or no predictive power for
future returns.
As shown in Figure 7, our research 9 also shows that measures based on academic studies
(blue bars) outperform industry-based measures (magenta bars) in global markets.
‘Academic’ measures are accruals, gross profitability and net stock issues, while ‘industry’
measures include ROE, margins, ROE growth, leverage, and earnings variability.
And with respect to that 90% who most likely are not MFO readers-Many Americans are pinching pennies, exhausted by high prices and stubborn inflation. The well-off are spending with abandon. The top 10% of earners—households making about $250,000 a year or more—are splurging on everything from vacations to designer handbags, buoyed by big gains in stocks, real estate and other assets.
Those consumers now account for 49.7% of all spending, a record in data going back to 1989, according to an analysis by Moody’s Analytics. Three decades ago, they accounted for about 36%. All this means that economic growth is unusually reliant on rich Americans continuing to shell out. Moody’s Analytics has estimated that spending by the top 10% alone accounted for almost one-third of gross domestic product.
Between September 2023 and September 2024, the high earners increased their spending by 12%. Spending by working-class and middle-class households, meanwhile, dropped over the same period.
Taken together, well-off people have increased their spending far beyond inflation, while everyone else hasn’t. The bottom 80% of earners spent 25% more than they did four years earlier, barely outpacing price increases of 21% over that period. The top 10% spent 58% more.
The buying power of the richest Americans, who tend to be older and more educated, stems in part from the swelling values of homes and the stock market over the past several years. Rising asset prices are widening the gap between those who own property and stocks, and those who don’t.
During the pandemic, Americans across the spectrum saved at record levels. Then inflation struck, and prices rose sharply. Most Americans turned to their extra savings to keep up with their rising bills. But the top 10% of earners kept most of what they had saved up.
Comment: So here we have yet another disconnect: the majority of voters are not in that lucky top 10%, and many within the Trump party that they voted for would cut their Medicaid so as to transfer even more wealth from the 90% to that top 10%.President Trump cautioned lawmakers earlier this month about making cuts to Medicaid. But just after Trump left the room, one budget hawk remarked: “We could get $2.5 trillion if we cut Medicaid.”
House Republicans are deeply divided on Medicaid, split between spending hard-liners who want big savings and pragmatists who warn against angering voters. Steve Bannon recently warned about the dangers of cutting Medicaid. “A lot of MAGAs on Medicaid,” he said. “Just can’t take a meat ax to it, although I would love to.”
House Freedom Caucus members and other budget hawks successfully pressed for an amendment that directly ties $2 trillion in spending reductions over 10 years to the party’s tax-cut effort. Under that provision, the more the GOP pulls from Medicaid and other programs, the more financial room Republicans have.
States help fund and manage the program, which provides health insurance for roughly 72 million people, or about one in five Americans, including children and people with low incomes or disabilities. The federal government spends about $600 billion annually on Medicaid.
Republicans aren’t allowed to touch Social Security in the fast-track legislative process they are using, and Trump has said he opposes reducing Medicare benefits, leaving Medicaid as one of the remaining ways to significantly shrink spending. Within a 24-hour period, Trump stated that Medicaid shouldn’t be touched but also posted on X that he backs the House-led package that is likely to rely on cuts to Medicaid to meet its targets.
White House spokesman Kush Desai said that the Trump administration is “committed to protecting Medicaid while slashing the waste, fraud, and abuse within the program—reforms that will increase efficiency and improve care for beneficiaries.”
Some House Republicans say keeping Medicaid intact is essential if they want to hold the House majority in 2026. Some are privately warning party leadership that there are scores of members—including some in safe GOP districts—who oppose deep cuts. Rep. David Valadao (R., Calif.) argues that the Trump coalition now includes many Medicaid recipients.
The program is popular. A recent poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation found nearly 80% of respondents—and 65% of Republicans—think the federal government spends about the right amount or not enough on Medicaid. But budget hawks believe now is their best chance to address deepening federal deficits, which have ballooned the U.S. debt to $34 trillion.
@Mark - To the extent I’ve attempted this in the past (under the guise of ”speculation”) it quickly became very time consuming. Got to the point where it wasn’t worth the time and effort.While I thought at one time that I was smart enough to do that successfully I learned that it takes a lot of time and more financial skills and knowledge than I had. I also spent a lot of time second guessing my choices. I now let the folks at Avantis take care of that for me using AVGE. I do hold certain CEF's, BDC's and dividend paying bluechips but they're more for the income produced than any other reason.
https://youtu.be/A3DmGfXgDggSocial Security guru Mary Beth Franklin discusses the program’s financial challenges and outlook, plus individual strategies to maximize its benefits.
But "as we know", the more uncertain people feel about the future, the more they save. Rather than allocate a fixed amount of money (as in the cited study) between savings and investing, people increase the size of the pot - save more - when they are worried.this study shows that if more people are in a financially precarious position ... the more they will stay away from investing in risky assets .... and instead remain invested in bonds and savings accounts. But as we know, this means that over time, these people can save less
Juelsrud, Ragnar E. & Wold, Ella Getz, 2020. "The Saving and Employment Effects of Higher Job Loss Risk"Policymakers and academics have linked the increase in savings to higher economic uncertainty often pointing to ... increases the volatility of expected future income, while at the same time lowering the level. Both of these effects may induce people to save more ...
Right. Dare I assert that most of us here are NOT spring chickens anymore? I'm having repeat surgery coming up in March.... As Leonard Cohen said: "I ache in the places where I used to play." (Tower Of Song.)”We've heard over and over, do not let the political environment sway your investing decisions.”
@Crash - That’s probably great advice for 80-90% of investors - mostly younger and employed - who research shows are usually better off letting it ride. I’d still give that advice to a 25 year old just starting out with maybe 40 years to retirement.
But take a look at the “Buy Sell” thread. ”Set-it- and-forget-it” ? Huh? ISTM most who frequent financial forums like this one do alter their investments quite a bit year-to-year. So, of course, political climate affects their decision making and is worth discussing.
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