Bringing & ringing in the New Year 5 years late! Gotta love it!

YBB,
I received the same email notification.
I've been waiting five years for this! :-)

Everything is political. Particularly when an Orange Criminal Clown Car regime is in charge. The reputational damage to the U.S. gov't is not a thing that can be repaired, particularly after 4 years. The rest of the world can see that U.S. voters TWICE put an Orange grifting, conscience-less, Crime Syndicate in charge. And I just learned that Big Orange is selling pardons. And the Majority on The Hill sit back and spectate.

i suspect today's broad dumping of precious metals is a play to capture 2026 equity gains.

The precious metals have rebounded to 80% of yesterday 5.6% loss.
The circular investment and concentrated AI stocks may present challenges to hit new high. 2022 was the turning point of new lows for both stocks and bonds simultaneously. And that was only 3 years ago.

Edit: . Seriously doubt that he made outstanding gain in 2022. Even for those who were 100% in cash, money market yield was only about 1%. The yield curve did not invert until the FED raised the interest rate. Very few bond funds had positive gain.

i'm no fd fan but i'd guess he made 10% plus or minus for the year, assuming he was actually invested in the bond funds he sometimes-long-after-the-fact said he was in, which i know to be spurious in at least 2 instances. so, in brief: who knows?

Seriously, I mentioned several funds last May on my site. All you have to do is use a chart and see what they have done.
I already made over 11% YTD. You can also see since retirement as of today, using about 97% bond OEFs.
https://ibb.co/SDcTzkhd

i suspect today's broad dumping of precious metals is a play to capture 2026 equity gains.

The precious metals have rebounded to 80% of yesterday 5.6% loss.
The circular investment and concentrated AI stocks may present challenges to hit new high. 2022 was the turning point of new lows for both stocks and bonds simultaneously. And that was only 3 years ago.

Edit: . Seriously doubt that he made outstanding gain in 2022. Even for those who were 100% in cash, money market yield was only about 1%. The yield curve did not invert until the FED raised the interest rate. Very few bond funds had positive gain.

i'm no fd fan but i'd guess he made 10% plus or minus for the year, assuming he was actually invested in the bond funds he sometimes-long-after-the-fact said he was in, which i know to be spurious in at least 2 instances. so, in brief: who knows?

Interesting that a supposed "bonds only" investor comes here to pound the table on the S&P and tell us how stupid we all are.

Let me respond to the point above: just because I haven’t invested in stocks over the past several years does not mean I don’t have an opinion, or that my views are any less valid than those of any other poster. If you don’t find my perspective useful, feel free to move on.

It’s also time to separate politics from investing.
Investment forums routinely discuss bonds, stocks, alternatives, long-term care, Medicare, healthcare, savings, taxes, annuities, withdrawal strategies, risk/standard deviation, and more.
Do you have to be a certain age to discuss Medicare, LTC, or withdrawal rates? Of course not. I had well-formed opinions on these retirement issues years before they personally applied to me.
Does someone who owns stocks right now automatically have better knowledge than someone who doesn’t? Of course not.
For context, since 2010 I’ve posted hundreds of times explaining why a portfolio primarily invested in U.S. large-cap stocks with a growth tilt made sense. In 2025, I began emphasizing the importance of diversification, including international exposure and gold.
Finally, for what it’s worth, I’ve helped several family members and friends, at no charge, on all of the topics mentioned above.
Lastly, and more importantly, if you have any substantive comments about my first post, please address those directly.

Some high active share funds
90%+
Note on Data: Performance is based on data available as of late 2025. "Active Share" data is typically reported quarterly.
| Fund Name | Ticker | 5-Year Return (Ann.) | 10-Year Return (Ann.) | Sharpe Ratio (5-Yr) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baron Partners Fund | BPTRX | 11.33% | 21.60% | 0.41 |
| Oakmark Select Fund | OAKLX | 14.26% | 9.77% | 0.66 |
| Dodge & Cox Global Stock | DODWX | 13.06% | 10.77% | 0.72 |
| Baron Focused Growth | BFGFX | 11.87% | 19.13% | 0.51 |
| Ariel Fund | ARGFX | 10.40% | 8.65% | 0.44 |
| AMG Yacktman Focused | YAFFX | 9.58% | 10.82% | 0.49 |
| Oakmark Int'l Small Cap | OAKEX | 9.24% | 7.52% | 0.41 |
| Fairholme Fund | FAIRX | 9.04% | 7.92% | 0.35 |
| Miller Opportunity Trust | LGOAX | 8.16% | 10.28% | 0.32 |
| Mairs & Power Small Cap | MSCFX | 7.90% | 8.06% | 0.34 |
The Baron Partners Fund (BPTRX) demonstrates the classic "high active share" profile. It has crushed the market over 10 years (21.60% annualized) but has a relatively low Sharpe Ratio (0.41) over the last 5 years, indicating that the returns came with significant volatility.
Consistency vs. Concentration: Dodge & Cox (DODWX) and Oakmark Select (OAKLX) have the highest Sharpe ratios on this list. While they are concentrated, they have managed to dampen volatility better than the hyper-concentrated growth funds like Baron.

Howdy folks,
Doc here's an article about the supply and demand of silver. New metal has lagged demand by over 1 million ounces a year for 5 years running. 70% of new metals comes as a by-product of lead, zinc and copper mining. China processes about 60% of the raw silver coming out of the mines. Adding a new mine is years in the making.
Demand is nuts and the industrial demand is what separates silver from gold. Gold is a store of value monetary item. Silver is both that AND an irreplaceable industrial metal. It's the most reflective and best conductor, anti-microbial, and used in photography. What is crazy is that it's crucial in every solar panel, electric vehicle, date centers, etc. None of them gives a rat's ass about the price as without it, they plants shut down.
So add in the demand like gold by central banks and sovereign wealth funds in the debasement trade, and for good measure throw in the 'going to the mattress' group like I did when that Cheeto SOB was elected.
The divergence is between the paper price of silver and the physical price. Right now it's around $10 between Comex and Shanghai. That is not going to continue. This is a schadenfreude moment as the London and New York silver pricing groups are being handed their asses.
I don't know where bitcoin is going. I've owned COIN since the onset but never bought a coin. Hell, I have a tough time remembering my name let alone a wallet ID.
More the question is where is the dollar going and where is all fiat currency going? The Fed started the printing presses and they're going to continue to drop rates.
Physical bullion and mining stocks - Oh my.
https://online.kitco.com/fundamentals/silver-investment?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=22167131403&gbraid=0AAAAADsHY8_SR9g2tB5ByD017dhNc_yck&gclid=CjwKCAiAjc7KBhBvEiwAE2BDOVZmOgmsc12V2-rd3L8sBrZx36kbbphkiZaibjO3GcfyJZK3vLyIWxoCNmsQAvD_BwE
and so it goes,
peace,
rono

What it was like 15.5 years ago. Wayback Machine
Don't expect the conversation links to work. Many may not have been archived.

Howdy Mark,
That is so cool. Thanks. BTW, I've got my black eyed peas out to soak tomorrow. If I didn't eat them on New Years, my mom would come back to haunt me.
stay safe,
rono

Very good summation and history lesson. Thanks @rono
A few thoughts, wrong or right: Now that many here do not need basic background or education, they just seek to hear potential trends, the rare new thought, and seek affirmation/refutation of ideas relevant to the current environment. Some other boards with old timers, keep repeating things that everyone knows well. Investing 101. Here, there is more random discussion. More actual camaraderie. And only the occasional strategic economic memory refresher. Apologies, if non sequitur.

Howdy Doc,
That was Gary's rule 1 - look for the divergences and study them for trends. That's why I came out of retirement to play the precious metals bull and ring the bell around here. It's a Peter Lynch thing - everyone has some bit of knowledge that if applied can make money. I've collected coins for 70 years. If they start of move, it wakes me in the middle of the night.
We're all so fortunate to have this discussion board. Best advice ever and free.
take care,
rono

What it was like 15.5 years ago. Wayback Machine
Don't expect the conversation links to work. Many may not have been archived.

i suspect today's broad dumping of precious metals is a play to capture 2026 equity gains.

The precious metals have rebounded to 80% of yesterday 5.6% loss.
The circular investment and concentrated AI stocks may present challenges to hit new high. 2022 was the turning point of new lows for both stocks and bonds simultaneously. And that was only 3 years ago.
Edit: . Seriously doubt that he made outstanding gain in 2022. Even for those who were 100% in cash, money market yield was only about 1%. The yield curve did not invert until the FED raised the interest rate. Very few bond funds had positive gain.

Statistics show that the S&P 500 has been positive in over 80% of the years since 1980. Despite this, most, or even all so called “experts” have been wrong repeatedly (see link). The takeaway is simple: being consistently bearish is a losing strategy most of the time.
Given this track record, it’s hard to understand why people continue to read or post market predictions when history shows they are largely unreliable.
Warren Buffett famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” While catchy, this advice is often overstated. If you had sold at any point over the last 15 years because “others were greedy,” you would likely have underperformed the market, unless you had near-perfect timing.
Markets have been labeled “overvalued” for years (= greedy investors), yet they continued to deliver strong returns. Even Buffett himself has been accumulating cash over the past three years, during which the S&P 500 gained roughly 90%. For most investors, that cash-heavy positioning would have resulted in significant underperformance.

Ah yes, MGJ- our "Monte Carlo" advocate. And Ted. Enough about him.
@rono said, "What I treasure is the knowledge I gained on this board from so many people over so many years.
Absolutely.

@rono said,
"What I treasure is the knowledge I gained on this board from so many people over so many years."
+1
A few names remembered ... Maurice, MJG - and Flack, the technical analysis fella, who often confronted him.
Ted ("The Linkster") was a huge presence for a long time - whether you agreed with him or not.

@Sven said,
- "These days we rebalance when the opportunities present themselves."
Agree with ya there. Lock-in gains - especially the nice ones.
- "Picked up few shares of SLVR and GDX to increase the alternative bucket."
I won't touch precious metals with a 10-foot pole. But do own a few investment grade Morgans.
Also have some limited exposure to the precious metals through more broadly diversified funds.
- "Congrats to @Old_Joe who made similar move."
Ditto @Old_Joe / Just remember: "It ain't over 'til the fat-lady sings."
- "Sold some VOO"
Generally speaking I don't invest in S&P index funds or similar.
- "Bought some EM mid-cap value funds."
Sounds like a smart move. However, I've somewhat backed off on the midcaps. Did pick up a little BATRA today, an indirect play on real estate and internet sports betting. EM? Prone to streaks of under and overperformance
- "Goal is to shift US equity more to oversea that have more attractive valuation."
A worthy goal. I'd be a little careful as many overseas markets have had a nice run-up.
- "Sold some PRWCX"
It's been a great fund. I owned it many years ago.
- "Bought some international value funds"
I do think there's value in value. About all I look at any more.
- "Increased oversea bond allocation using DODLX and NRDCX"
Agree with having a toe-hold on international currencies & bonds. But use care. Many foreign currencies have had a nice run up.
- "$ 38 trillion national debt and $950 billion annual interest worry us."
Yes. Worries many. Simplest (and most likely) solution is to monetize the debt by allowing the dollar to erode in value. Short term they'll try to reduce interest expense by holding rates down, but likely to backfire long term.
- "Maintaining 5-10% in cash and cash equivalent as we approach retirement."
My direct cash holdings are around 20% of portfolio. Toss in in what's held thru diversified funds and it's closer to 30%.
- "Our annual gain is modest with our globally diversified and conservative portfolio.'
- "Risk mitigation remains our main goal ... "
Agree with both of above.
- Like @hank bucket approach and the naming nomenclature.
It helps me to think more clearly to have a structured portfolio plan. Lots of different concepts and terms can be utilized - with names like: buckets, sleeves, ranges, subsets, targets, limits and nominal positions.
Thanks for the mention @Sven Very nice summary by you.

Howdy folks,
This is not about funds directly but about the history of this discussion group and some of the people who blazed the trail. Please help me out with corrections and additional names.
The roots are in the UseNetNewsGroups, particularly MutualFundInvesting. When the WWW came about in the early 90's several folks tried to set up a discussion board. The one I remember as a direct ancestor of MFO was FundAlarm by Salil Gangal. Back then we had Ed as a regular and Art. I remember Art always saying, 'no one ever went broke taking profits '. Then there was Maureen. We figured she died in the Twin Towers. Never knew for sure, but she was so informed and savy and after 9/11 she disappeared. Alas. That said, we still have some old timers around.
What I treasure is the knowledge I gained on this board from so many people over so many years.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono

Court disputes may now move from contract pauses/cancellations to long-term lease pauses/cancellations.
Some land-leases are for 50-100 years and if they can be pauses/cancelled on short notice, many businesses will be affected.

Really cogent point. Why ever enter into long-term investment, if the government can toss a wrench into the gears on a whim? SCOTUS better seriously consider exactly which precedents they want to ensconce for future elected officials.
Oil leases cancelled across the board? Throttled to the bare minimum. There is a reason that prior administrations, of either flavor, have avoided setting wild precedence - they had actual understanding and vision.

"The Interior Department’s description of its decision "said the Pentagon had produced classified reports" that found the wind farms posed national security risks and that an unclassified report from the Energy Department had found that wind farms could interfere with radar systems."
They actually said that our radar systems are fooled by fan blades? This is what we have produced after 100 years of militrary-grade R&D, plus $50 billion in taxpayer funding?
If that were true, we just informed our enemies how to evade our systems.

Take it as you will, but imo it probably at least warrants some caution. Per BBG:
At the big banks and the boutique investment shops, an optimistic consensus has taken hold: the US stock market will rally in 2026 for a fourth straight year, marking the longest winning streak in nearly two decades.
< - >
But after three years when the equity market’s rip-roaring run made a mockery of any bearish calls, sell-side strategists are marching in lockstep optimism, with the average year-end S&P 500 forecast implying another 9% gain next year. Not a single one of the 21 prognosticators surveyed by Bloomberg News is predicting a decline.
< - >
“The pessimists have just been wrong for so long that people are kind of tired of that schtick,” said veteran market strategist and longtime bull Ed Yardeni. He expects the S&P to finish next year at 7,700 — up 11% from Friday’s close — yet even he finds the lack of dissent a little concerning.
“That’s where my counter instincts come out: Things have been going my way for so long that it is kind of worrying that everyone else seems to have become optimistic,” he said. “Pessimism is on the out right now.”
< - >
Full article @ https://archive.ph/7it02