I noticed nobody has proposed for consideration a portfolio solely made up of ETFs...kind of surprising as there are many model portfolio's like that floating out there..."The Lazy Portfolio", the three ETF portfolio, etc...
Also find it interesting that some are looking at past results as a comparison...last 15 years relatively low inflation until recently...also tremendous fiscal and monetary stimulus. Who knows that the future holds...some of you might remember a few years ago when I mentioned high grade rubies, you can fit a million dollar of them in your sock and no one would know..also interesting that no one has mentioned bitcoin...are we just a bunch of older dudes fighting the last war or are we going to open our minds and skate to where the puck is headed not where it is and has been?
Looking forward for this exercise, I am considering "continuity of fund managers", what are their ages and what is the bench strength and financial soundness of the fund company? Maybe need some international exposure as what if dollar weakens substantially?
What other inputs are folks pondering that maybe haven't been discussed yet?

Excellent topic @JD_co
As you realize, PRPFX wasn’t a recommendation. But I was struck by how close that +6.98% was to your hypothetical 7% goal. Like you, I prefer to diversify well beyond a single fund - no matter how good it is. The biggest problem, I think, is that shorter term (5-10 years) anything can happen, and so trying to extrapolate future return armed only with a decade’s historical performance is tough and might not lead to your desired result.
As a very conservative investor, I use 3 funds only for trying to gage daily volatility and yearly return. They are not benchmarks. They are not goals. They are simply markers for what I think a conservative investor might reasonably expect to earn over time with very limited volatility. I do not own any of these.
AOK - Globally diversified. 30% equity / 70% fixed income. Relies on index funds. Low ER
TRRIX - A fund of funds from T. Rowe Price. 40% equity / 60% fixed income. Moderate ER
ABRZX - An “alternative” style investment from Invesco. Stocks, bonds, commodities (including precious metals). Attempts to hedge market risk using derivatives. ER exceeds 1%
Over the past 15 years the 3 have averaged +5.40% annually. TRRIX led the pack with a slightly better 6.07% return over that period. Sound bad? For some perspective I compared that number to T. Rowe’s short-term bond fund PRWBX. It has returned +1.86% annually over the same period.
*** I should have checked VWINX, arguably the gold standard, for conservative funds. True to form VWINX has topped all three of my afore mentioned tracking funds with a +7.06 15 year average return. However, not that much better thanPRPFX’s +6.98% return over the same period. Personally, I’d pick PRPFX over VWINX, being willing to sacrifice the 0.08% advantage enjoyed by VWINX for better inflation protection.

Would you settle for only 6.98%? That’s the annualized return of PRPFX over 15 years according to M*. If I were going to own just one fund, that would be my choice. Over that 15 year period the fund’s worst year was 2008 when it lost -8.36%. Its best year was 2003 when it gained +20.45%. (These numbers came from Yahoo Finance.)

My son just opened TRP acct. Everything went smoothly until attempting to link his credit union acct with TRP. Sorry, we are unable.... Feces.
He STILL refuses to get a credit card. Prefers cash and debit card. Dunno if that factors in.

An entire generation has been conditioned to think debit cards = credit cards. I would never use a debit card for everyday purchases primarily since the consumer protections are not as strong as they are on credit cards.
People forget that if you responsibily pay your credit card bills off every month, it's no different than using a debit card (from our perspective) ... but that means banks are paying more for interchange fees and consumer protections, plus they're not making $$ from you on interest or potential overdraft fees and stores hate paying banks to accept credit cards. So it's no wonder why banks (and stores) prefer people use debit v credit.

I have a CC and debit card. Here's something I read online years ago, that I never thought of, and why I NEVER use my debit card for online purchases:
When using a CC, if there's some problem -- no matter who's at fault -- you have plenty of time to dispute it, and you don't have to pay it until it's settled.
With a debit card the purchase comes out of your bank account immediately. If there's some problem with the purchase and even if it's in your favor, you have to get the money BACK from the vendor -- which may or may not be a PITA.

The best thing is to not get a debit card at all to avoid any and all risk to the attached account. While a debit card is typically the default, most banks will, upon request, issue a plain vanilla ATM card. It can only be used to withdraw cash (with a PIN) and cannot be used to make purchases.

[...]
3. Status of M* Discussions - it's nowhere on the new M* Home, but does continue as a separate site hosted by Salesforce under the M* label.
So, the new M* website rollout was fine and there were no problems as were feared just a few days ago.

Regarding the current status of M* Discussions, I say good riddance. Until a few years ago it was a terrific site, but its now become the primary domain of a single poster.
More or less totally useless to serious investors, unfortunately. Excepting, of course, yogi's contributions.

@hank, I would hesitate to call any duration bond fund as a "hedge." It is a volatility damper or ballast, but IMHO only cash or T-bills or a skilled execution of a puts/shorts/options strategy constitutes a true "hedge".

It’s probably age showing. We old folks have a tendency to live in the past. However, in 2008 I was happy to hold Price’s GNMA fund (PRGMX). It rose +5.62% that year while the S&P tumbled about - 38%. PRGMX also posted returns in the vicinity of 6% in the year before (2007) and the year after (2009). I don’t have the fund’s duration at the time, it’s typically about a 5-7 years. Even better was Price’s Long-Term Treasury Bond Index (PRULX) which rose +23% in 2008. Tell me longer dated high quality bonds aren’t a good equity hedge.
If you’re wondering how cash performed back then, 2008 began with the FOMC overnight lending rate at 3.5% and ended with the rate at 2.0%.

My son just opened TRP acct. Everything went smoothly until attempting to link his credit union acct with TRP.
Was he trying to link his CU account to TRP (i.e. have the TRP account recognize the CU account), or was he trying to link TRP to his CU account (i.e. have his CU recognize the TRP account)?
While I haven't tried linking accounts at TRP in many years, I do know that at Vanguard you generally cannot link Vanguard accounts to outside institutions. The one exception is Vanguard Cash Plus, that's specifically designed for moving cash.
Even with that account (from VG): "***Some third-party institutions may not accept the Cash Plus Account routing number for transactions. If you have any issues using the routing number on a third-party website, contact the provider." I've had that problem, though Fidelity (the institution I was trying to link to) handled it manually.
TRP may be similar.

Thanks for the note, msf.
Yes, he was just doing what all businesses these days prefer that we do: to have the ability to electronically send $$$ by ACH. It would have been easier if TRP could have directly grabbed the money from his account at the credit union, eh? So, my son gave TRP his checking acct. number and the routing number for the CU. That particular CU is GASCU, out of Glendale, CA. They dropped the customary "F" (federal) some years ago. Privately insured deposits now. Dunno if that enters into the snafu. So, Sean (son) will just have to write a check from his account and send it to TRP in Balto. But I told him last night that I'd love to know what the problem was. So, I'm going to push him to find out, once his account is funded. The entire sign-up process went smoothly apart from that.

@ rfono I know of three credit bureaus most usually mentioned but are there two others?
I have had a credit freeze for years. When I called the provider offering credit monitoring from one my many hacks, they said a credit freeze prevents them from monitoring your account.
We have had our data hacked so many times I have lost count.

We have changed banks about every five years, driven away by some disaster or another. Once it was data related, ie they lost an unencrypted data file with all our info on it. Usually it is bad customer service, usually with a national bank, or our cute local bank gets bought out.
BOA was the worse. We stuck with WF because of decent local branch staff in CT, but now are down to $3000 in account.
Currently we use a local bank with only regional footprint, still mutually owned. They have notary, easy access and locations. Of course they pay zip on account but it is easy to move money there when needed.

My son just opened TRP acct. Everything went smoothly until attempting to link his credit union acct with TRP. Sorry, we are unable.... Feces.
He STILL refuses to get a credit card. Prefers cash and debit card. Dunno if that factors in.

An entire generation has been conditioned to think debit cards = credit cards. I would never use a debit card for everyday purchases primarily since the consumer protections are not as strong as they are on credit cards.
People forget that if you responsibily pay your credit card bills off every month, it's no different than using a debit card (from our perspective) ... but that means banks are paying more for interchange fees and consumer protections, plus they're not making $$ from you on interest or potential overdraft fees and stores hate paying banks to accept credit cards. So it's no wonder why banks (and stores) prefer people use debit v credit.

I have a CC and debit card. Here's something I read online years ago, that I never thought of, and why I NEVER use my debit card for online purchases:
When using a CC, if there's some problem -- no matter who's at fault -- you have plenty of time to dispute it, and you don't have to pay it until it's settled.
With a debit card the purchase comes out of your bank account immediately. If there's some problem with the purchase and even if it's in your favor, you have to get the money BACK from the vendor -- which may or may not be a PITA.

My son just opened TRP acct. Everything went smoothly until attempting to link his credit union acct with TRP.
Was he trying to link his CU account to TRP (i.e. have the TRP account recognize the CU account), or was he trying to link TRP to his CU account (i.e. have his CU recognize the TRP account)?
While I haven't tried linking accounts at TRP in many years, I do know that at Vanguard you generally cannot link Vanguard accounts to outside institutions. The one exception is Vanguard Cash Plus, that's specifically designed for moving cash.
Even with that account (from VG): "***Some third-party institutions may not accept the Cash Plus Account routing number for transactions. If you have any issues using the routing number on a third-party website, contact the provider." I've had that problem, though Fidelity (the institution I was trying to link to) handled it manually.
TRP may be similar.

Patelco CU has been in the news for a while - check X/Twitter.
There have been previous posts on data breaches - MOVEit data transfer, Inforsys/MacCamish, etc.
A typical deal offered is 2-3 years of credit monitoring by one of the credit agencies or 3rd parties like Kroll.
The biggest breach of all may be the NPD - National Public Data breach that will affect almost everybody. NPD is a national database used for background checks & fraud prevention and it most likely has your data too.

No, not that particular one. I was at a physical rehab hosp 3 years ago. Scumbag criminal pig hackers breached the files. I was offered ONE year protection with IDX out of Portland. There have not been any Alerts. Hackers: The slimiest of criminal creatures. I'll stop here before it gets obscene. I'd say it's definitely worth signing-up for the protection.

Just as we were extolling the services of credit unions, I received an email today informing me (see the quoted text below) that my information was compromised. I closed the account a couple of years ago and that was the last of the small financial institution relationship I had.
"What Information Was Involved?
The information in the accessed databases included first and last name with Social Security number, Driver’s License number, date of birth, and/or email address. Not every data element was present for every individual."
That is an extensive breach which makes me think their data segregation was not proper.
"[W]e contained the threat by proactively disabling all unauthorized access to our network, restoring all data, and immediately commencing a prompt and thorough investigation. We also notified law enforcement. As part of our investigation, we worked very closely with external cybersecurity professionals experienced in handling these types of incidents. The investigation revealed that an unauthorized party gained access to our network on May 23, 2024, leading to access to the databases on June 29, 2024. Following the investigation and a thorough review of the data involved, we confirmed on August 14, 2024, that the accessed databases contained your personal information."
Patelco does not say if they paid the attackers but they say they restored all the data. I think in most cases the Ransomware attackers delete the information accessed if they are paid. How can I find out if they paid the Ransomware attackers?
"What You Can Do
To help protect your information, we are offering a complimentary two-year membership of Experian IdentityWorksSM Credit 3B. This product helps detect possible misuse of your personal information and provides you with identity protection services focused on immediate identification and resolution of identity theft."
I already have credit frozen at all three credit unions (Experian calls it "security freeze"). Experian had said that they send you an alert every time someone tries to access your credit file. I recently opened a B0A account and evidently BoA checks your credit file but I have not received any alert.
Does anyone have experience with "Experian IdentityWorksSM Credit 3B"? Any negatives in signing up for this service?
Thanks.

Well, we also started investing in our early 30's. If he's persistent he should be fine in 30 or 40 years. As John Templeton said: "The power of compounding..."

I thought there are websites that give you odds to wager. (I used to check a site for this information four years ago.) After the market close each day someone can post the change in closing price and change in odds to wager to see if there is any correlations.

Watch a movie like

Network. It's clunky to watch these days, but yeah, people were "mad as hell" about a lot of things, including inflation.
Growing up through that era is the main reason I'm not convinced we're out of the woods yet.

Thanks. That makes sense. The tricks our minds play! 40-50 years is too soon for a different reaction to similar events.

Bought a small slug of FLO - a small cap baked foods distributor. Have followed it for years. Has gone nowhere. Please don’t ask me why I bought it (but they do make delicious bread). Also - opened very small positions in PSQ (1 X inverse QQQ) and SDS (2 X inverse S&P). Together worth about the cost of a first class R/T ticket to LGA. Will trickle more in if the hoot continues.

Rforno, I believe the software companies that will win the AI race are not household names yet. As viewed from a % gain perspective over the next 15 years.

Agreed. But I'll bet most of 'em will get snapped up by the tech companies that *are* household names ... I always keep my ears pinned for interesting AI opportunities, but don't plan on doing a deep-dive to try and find them.

"I didn’t sense as much angst among the public back then over rising prices as today. ... I think it came on gradually over many years and people got used to it. They say if you put a frog in a pot of cold water and heat it up to a boil slowly the frog will die of the heat rather than jump out."
Inflation is expressed in annual change of price. If inflation goes up from 17% in one year to18% inflation the next year, people will know they are paying 18% more in price than what they paid the previous year. Not sure how people can get used to it.
It is possible your memory is kind to previous generations or the current populations are more whiny - you have to figure that out for yourself.

Watch a movie like Network. It's clunky to watch these days, but yeah, people were "mad as hell" about a lot of things, including inflation.
Growing up through that era is the main reason I'm not convinced we're out of the woods yet.