Rforno, I believe the software companies that will win the AI race are not household names yet. As viewed from a % gain perspective over the next 15 years.

I’ve been a regular M* user for 25 years, although I’ve never paid for it. I mainly use it now to track various funds and portfolios. However, portfolio view no longer works for me. M* converted all of my portfolios into watchlists. No big deal, except it defaults to the “wrong “ watchlist every time I open the app now. The watchlist I primarily follow tracks a group of ETFs that approximates my primary investment portfolio. It is a simple way to track my investments at any given time. M* has essentially ruined that simple utility for me, so I am using their app less and less.

- For income, stability, safety the short to intermediate part of the curve (1-5 years) is easier to ride. Much less volatile. Not a lot of difference now in rates.
-There may be reasons to go further out if you believe rates will be lower than. Plain vanilla bonds might work better however, than a fund.
- I sometimes use longer term bond funds as a volatility hedge - but only the highest quality ones. Depends on a lot of factors like how volatile your portfolio is, what current interest rates are, how much growth you are willing to exchange for the reduction in volatility.
- I am surprised by the extent WEA has served to dampen equity volatility on down days. Might just be freakish exception. Have only owned it a couple months.
- I have my eyes on JMBS - mortgage backed bonds. High quality. Actively managed. Reasonable fees. It does tend to rally on big equity down days. But the flip side that it can fall quite a bit on solid equity days - much more than a short term bond fund typically does. Expected growth is low unless we enter another 2008 during which only the highest credit quality bonds held up.

reduced rates: gummint can spend less buying back its behemoth debt, right? A dollar that's TOO strong vs. other currencies would be a problem. But we are a world away from THAT right now. Universal tariffs on imports is a yucky idea. Ever-expanding gummint spending gets us nowhere in reducing the debt-beast. Facilitating and streamlining LEGAL immigration, and therefore expanding the pool of labor, would be a great thing. Need more Immigration and Customs workers. Is that stuff being farmed out to the private sector, like TSA?
Hank's got it. And msf offers that intermediate term bond funds are as far out on the curve as seems prudent to him.
PRSNX. 4.46 years (global, USD hedged.)
WCPNX 5.6 years
DODIX 6.22 years. Stretching things, eh?
DLFNX. 5.95 years
I own none of them--- yet. I'm thinking that when rates go down, my junky stuff will throw a party in the streets. Eh?

Apologies @bee. Will stop screwing around. ”Preparing for Rate Cuts”
- Well, the conventional wisdom is to lengthen out maturity bit. If I wanted to put a lot of $$ into bonds I’d aim for around 3 years maturity. Farther out is a gamble if inflation reignites.
- Two short term ETFs: I use LSST for a short term bond fund. There are lower fee options if that’s critical to you. On my radar is TDTT which adds an inflation-protection component - also about 3 years maturity. Very low fees.
- For more conservative folks an ultra-short might get you a bit extra as rates fall. TBUX looks excellent in that category.
- I’d say keep your inflation hedges up. Lower rates may eventually push it higher.
- There’s an old expression: “Buy the rumor. Sell the news”. The presumption is that stocks will go even higher if the Fed cuts rates. Maybe yes. Maybe no.
- The financial world may look much different following the November election. Enjoy the fun for now. Hope it lasts a couple more months. But don’t get too giddy.

@Hank. I agree that people today seem way more bent out of shape over what is sort of mild and shorted lived compared to the old days. And inflation is what you make of it too. We bought an old boat, sailed to the sea of Cortez and lived on a small part of the interest our money market account was paying. After three years we had more than when we left. Hank. La Paz, was sure different than the northern suburbs of Detroit where I grew up.

I filed an SEC complaint a couple of years ago when I sold a mutual fund at one NAV stated by Schwab and then days later the fund company lowered the price I recieved
The paperwork was not much. I won and got about $500 back

Seems like a good time to build a replicating portfolio for LCORX. Devo describes the process at this dinky linky.
Portfolio Visualizer gives us ten free years of data, and over that period of time LCORX shows a beta of .49. So we're going to test LCORX against a portfolio that is 51% cash and 49% SPY--I think that's the right breakdown.
And here are the results: YADL (yet another dinky linky.)
To get the betas to match over time I had to adjust the breakdown to 50/50/ And here is the result for that.

Thanks. No offense taken @WABC. Yours was a good question. Perhaps better put as: “What are the relative risks / rewards of Tactical Allocation approaches vs Options Based approaches? What could go wrong with either?”
LCORX seems more “old school” to me. I understand what it means to sell a stock short or to go long. And, in years past I’d “jigger” my relative weightings up and down (ie stocks, bonds, metals) to conform to whatever market view I held. Options trading is harder for me to fully understand. Not sure that at my age I need or want to get “up-to-speed” on this type of approach.
I hope no one has expressed disdain for another’s investment choices. Sorry if that has occurred. As I see it ….. It’s their money. They worked hard for it. If the investment fails, they are the one who suffers the loss - not me.
Regards

A recent article in The NY Times about an Iowa pig farmer converting his farm to mushroom production states that there are 4000 factory farms in Iowa. An Iowa farmer interviewed on CNN last night said it’s good for the earth to raise beef cattle. I suspect there’s a connection between the American diet and our obesity problem. I am not neutral on the issue: I think bacon is a carcinogen and avoid animal products, processed foods, and the like.

Indeed. Having eaten beef in Europe, South America, and Asia, it tastes totally different than American beef which often has been fed all sorts of crap and given all sorts of drugs to help provide 'greater yield' compared to those other regions ... such Frankenfoods definitely play a role in the obesity problems, even if they're not necessarily processed. The same with wheat, which is engineered and grown more for 'yield' and 'cost savings' than nutritional value -- the wheat of today, especially in the USA is NOT the wheat from 200 or 1000 years ago.

We also us JPMC as our primary bank- all of our SS and retirement income is channeled through them, and then automatically transferred to Schwab twice a month. Both JPMC and Schwab have offices one block away from our home, so dealing with either of them is very easy. I don't believe that our JPMC branch still offers deposit boxes, but they have maintained ours for many years.

new medication will improve lives and reduce junk food consumption.

What a strange world we live in that we have to buy expensive drugs to save us from consuming

stuff that should rarely go into our shopping carts.

I remember when 'Wheat Belly' was published 15 or so years ago and how the grain/junk food industry was playing dirty pool trying to discredit the author (a cardiologist) and plant seeds of doubt. Seeing how the industry was being so proactive in their nonsense, I presumed the book was probably on to something. But the book was eye-opening .... I went low-bad-carb for a year, lost a TON of weight, and haven't looked back. Since then i've learned the food industry will do ANYTHING to keep its customers hooked, and the pharma industry will do ANYTHING to address symptoms but not 'cure' the underlying causes ... both in the name of $$$$$$, of course.
By contrast, a longtime friend is on a GLP-1. They were never a chronic junk or processed food addict, worked out regularly, and generally had a healthy lifestyle yet struggled with weight and major appetite issues for decades. She started on GLP-1s last year and (last I heard) is down 25# and says they're feeling/looking like a new person in ways "not since college." I think GLP-1s are game changers, plus I'm seeing studies about how they're showing promise for other conditions, too.....and if GLP-1s can help metabolic issues, that can have a follow-on benefit for patients who don't need as many drugs for conditons, new medical devices, replacement knees/hips, etc. So in that regard I think Giroux is spot-on in this assessment. But it's great for patients, but bad for some companies.

I've been a happy owner of JHQAX for many years now and think of it's expected return and volatility the same as you stated, like a moderate balanced fund. But I also bought into the T.Rowe Price hedged fund, PHEFX, when it came out and have steadily increased the holding. PHEFX has actually returned more than JHQAX with what seems to be slightly more volatility. 1 year return for JHQAX=15.2%, PHEFX=22.7%. In comparison to a well known balanced fund, PRWCX=16.9% while the S&P 500 has returned ~22% in the past 1 year. FWIW.

"Wire form UI to other brokerages is a mess"
Please elaborate. I have not done a wire from Fido to other brokerages in a couple of years and I have a short memory for unpleasant things.
Do not you need a Fido CMA account to use zelle?

Good point, @sven, regarding Capital Appreciation. It appears that Segalas got some help from other Jennison Associates colleagues in the last few years of his service. These days, three of them are running the OEF while those three, plus a fourth, run the PGIM Jennison Focused Growth ETF (PJFG) and the Harbor Long-Term Growers (WINN). WINN has $500M under management, so no trading problems. Both are very aggressive sporting large positions in the Mag 7.

"I didn’t sense as much angst among the public back then over rising prices as today. ... I think it came on gradually over many years and people got used to it. They say if you put a frog in a pot of cold water and heat it up to a boil slowly the frog will die of the heat rather than jump out."
Inflation is expressed in annual change of price. If inflation goes up from 17% in one year to18% inflation the next year, people will know they are paying 18% more in price than what they paid the previous year. Not sure how people can get used to it.
It is possible your memory is kind to previous generations or the current populations are more whiny - you have to figure that out for yourself.

Spiros “Sig” Segalas who managed Capital Appreciation fund passed away several years ago. The fund is team managed today. Still very good but no where nearly as good as it used to be. Other Harbor OEFs are so so.
Time have changed and BG’s investment style is clearly out of favor since the pandemic. Additionally, their higher EM exposure does not help.

Yes. 20% in a money market fund - Delaware Cash Reserves. The company is no longer existent.
Wasn’t all happy. Especially shopping for groceries in the big stores in the northern (Detroit) suburbs. There were always several employees moving up / down the aisles marking items up by hand. No bar codes in those days. Things went up fast. The loaf of bread you paid 50 cents for became 60 cents a few weeks later and 75 cents by year’s end. On and on it went. Not only bread. Meats, staples, everything rising. Year after year. So, after paying federal income tax on your 20% “windfall” you were lucky to end up ahead. Fortunately unions were strong and protected workers with COLA wage raises. To some extent, non union workers benefited indirectly.
This source shows annual inflation peaking around 18% in 1980 and remaining in double-digits for several years.
I didn’t sense as much angst among the public back then over rising prices as today. But maybe I wasn’t looking or listening. I think it came on gradually over many years and people got used to it. They say if you put a frog in a pot of cold water and heat it up to a boil slowly the frog will die of the heat rather than jump out.

@AndyJ- Yes sir, you are correct on that. Still, 50 years of damage ain't great.

Compare those chart events with Reagan years (1980-88) and Volcker years at the Fed, 08/1979* - 08/1983** - 08/1987.
In 1987, rumor went both ways - one was that Volcker didn't want a 3rd term, and another that Reagan wasn't going to nominate him for the 3rd term, had a search setup for possible replacement that was headed by Greenspan. The politician that Greenspan was, he recommended reappointing Volcker, but Reagan nominated Greenspan instead.
Two months into Greenspan's term, stock market crashed on 10/19/1987 (Black Monday). It had more to do with dollar and some harsh statements that the US Treasury Secretary Baker made about Germany and the US allies.
BTW, as reported by various sources, it was Baker who said to Volcker that the President was "ordering" him to lower rates. Reagan (who was present) and Volcker didn't say anything. Volcker left the meeting without reacting to Baker's "order".
*Nominated by Carter
**Nominated by Reagan