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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Starting Yields Are Predictive of Bond TR...

    That's what I was thinking
    Next week, rates may go up, and the explanation will not look great. These articles explaining stuff can be generated by AI. Over the years, I have seen a reversal in explanations based on the new markets. I stopped listening to these articles many years ago.
    This is why I follow prices, charts, and trends that tell me in real time a lot more.
    Read (this).
  • the July / post-Morningstar issue of MFO is live
    "Artisan Partners used to have an Artisan International Small Cap Fund for several years in which it was closed (I believe it was opened in 2001)."
    I owned this fund years ago.
  • the July / post-Morningstar issue of MFO is live
    Artisan Partners used to have an Artisan International Small Cap Fund for several years in which it was closed (I believe it was opened in 2001). It was later renamed to the Artisan International Small-Mid Fund in 2018. Originally, Mark Yockey used to be one of the co-managers of the International Small Cap Fund.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935015/000119312518294501/d598864d485apos.htm
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935015/000119312518021833/d513085d485bpos.htm
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    Not currently. At one we time owned PRPFX. We also previously traded GLD and GDX. There are just so many more reliable and less volatile ways to make money.
    EDIT: We owned them back when we traded more. We currently (and likely from here on out) only like to own funds that outperform the S&P over LONG periods. GLD, GDX, SDLV and/or PRPFX do not. Over the past 10 years, it ain't even close. If you want diversifiers and/or intend to trade them, have at it. Otherwise, be prepared for their LT underperformance.
  • the July / post-Morningstar issue of MFO is live
    Just in passing, we should note that the Artisan International Explorer strategy existed before the fund launched. The strategy initiated in November, 2020. The fund launched in May, 2022. The strategy, as a whole, has over $350 million in assets.
    Mr Zhou was an analyst under Mr Samra for 7 years before leaving to become a portfolio manager for Matthews. He returned to Artisan in 2020 but, I would guess, he returned bearing a non-compete agreement. And so he was able to run private but not public money.
    Since inception, the strategy has returned about 13.7% annually while it's benchmark index has returned just under 8%. It has outperformed in both up and down years with an active share of 99.3%.
    I've spoken with Mr Zhou twice. The first time was in person and I was deeply impressed. The second time was a weird video call with him and his co-manager in a conference room with a robo camera. The danged camera kept pivoting and refocusing. I think it was ceiling mounted. It did not engender a good conversation. Perhaps I should try again.
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    If so, what is your rationale, and what has your experience been?
    I have some limited indirect exposure. But I do not hold any gold / precious metals funds or stocks at this time..
    My experience: Gold / PC miners are explosive (no pun intended). There is a string of 5 consecutive years (2011-2015) where most gold / precious metals mining funds lost money every year, losing about 90% of value over those 5 years. Breathtaking. But gold is prone to sharp “up” years as well. A mining fund can gain 50% + in a good year.
    Performance / Yahoo / Click the “show more” tab to pull up longer term performance for both OPGSX and the broader fund category.
    I won’t touch the miners at my age. They are more volatile than the metal. (Albeit - those in the know say the miners are currently undervalued relative to the metal.) Like @Derf I own PRPFX. One of my CEFs has a bit of exposure to the miners. When I feel like gambling I buy a little GLTR. It combines gold bullion with some silver and platinum using derivatives. Don’t feel like gambling right now. Prices look rich to me.
    Rationale for owning / not owning? When rising sharply gold is cited as a hedge against inflation and a “safe haven” during times of war or social upheaval. Also as a way of diversifying. When falling, critics say it hasn’t done nearly as well as equities longer term, does’t generate any income, can be difficult to trade (very narrow market) and is expensive to store.
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    We haven't held any gold/metals related since 1979 - early 1980's. The below charts are gold miners, gold and SPY for a reference.
    GDX vs GLD vs SPY chart 2006 to present
    Chart August 2008 - August 2010, 2 years during 2008 market melt
    Chart COVID period, January 2020 - January 2022
    Chart Ukraine invasion, January, 2022 - July, 2024
    Chart YTD
    NOTE: a fellow I worked with for 30 years was/is a guns and gold kinda person.
    He became so freaked out with the market melt in 2008, that he cashed out a portion of his T-IRA to purchase physical gold at a local coin dealer store. That wasn't a good plan.
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    I never had a problem with Schwab MM and I'm a trader. I always trade funds/MM on the same date, just make it a habit. MM is just another fund for me. I have had both Fidelity and Schwab for over 20 years.
  • Savita Subramanian: large cap value is the place to be for the next five years
    Studies have indicated exploiting the momentum factor can generate alpha.
    Skilled traders who use momentum may be able to harvest some of this alpha.
    Numerous studies also indicate active trading often leads to poor performance.
    I contend the vast majority of individual investors should create a sensible investment
    plan and then strive to minimize trading activity.
    I agree with the above and what I have been posting for many years.
    On the other hand, I also posted that most investors should use up to 5-7 funds and rarely trade.
    What I have seen on several sites for over 15 years is the worst of both. Too many funds and too many trades without any consistency, and many times trading at the worst time.
    Remember, create a system, test and retest, make changes until it is worth it, and stick to it. Trading is like swimming; practice makes you better, but trading randomly doesn't make sense.
    Hint: valuation and low fund expense ratio should not lead your trading and why there are investors who have been holding Value and EM in the last 15 years.
  • the July / post-Morningstar issue of MFO is live
    @sma3: ARDBX is predominantly small and micro cap. It holds only 22 positions representing 60% of AUM and still has a lot of cash, despite trading for more than 2 years. Quite a different animal compared to the Artisan LC international and global funds. The managers apparently spent a long time after their hiring date to prepare their new fund for business. One hopes that patience will be rewarded.
  • Investing in 'Rule of Law' countries
    @crash
    i worked at the VA for 8 years. The most frustrating experience in my life, based on quality of care. But I got paid. In private practice I would gladly have taken care of veterans ( and Title 19) if they had a system set up to pay me. The VA never did. Title 19 even in CT offered us 20% of our usual fee and then couldn't understand why we would not accept their patients with open arms.
    Unfortunately there is enough blame for everybody. The bureaucracy paints all doctors as money grubbing creeps so wont pay them. The private sector is willing to abandon their principles if there is cash involved.
    a number of NE states have reduced the Veteran homeless population to very low numbers. It can be done if you are willing to spend the money.
  • New Stock ETFs Offering ‘100%’ Downside Protection Are Coming
    Thanks @Devo. if we are to earn the dividends, that is another 1.4%, for a total of 12% return if we the full cap is realized at the end. I will take that.
    @equalizer,
    "Long term 100 year 1 year rolling returns shows market up about 75% of time and probably up 80% of time using last 40 years."
    Looks like you did not complete your thought or at least you did not say all of what you were thinking. Please elaborate / expand / conclude.
    Thanks.
  • New Stock ETFs Offering ‘100%’ Downside Protection Are Coming
    For MAXJ, looks like on June 28 they started fund with IVV at 547 and bought July 2025 puts at 547 and sold July 2025 calls at 608, which is about 11.1% upside minus the 0.5% fee and we get the 10.6% upside. Would have to check prices for this strategy over last 20 years to determine if 10.6% is at top of range. Suspect that during 2008 timeframe this strategy would pay out 2-3%?
    Seems like a reasonable strategy at todays prices…
    Long term 100 year 1 year rolling returns shows market up about 75% of time and probably up 80% of time using last 40 years.
    .
  • Investing in 'Rule of Law' countries
    @crash
    We lived in CT, run as a one party state for decades. Budget deficits, huge government worker ( all unionized) pension and retiree health care deficits ( over $65,000 per person with a declining population). The only thing that saved them was iron clad "Guard rails" requiring a rainy day fund and any surplus to be put into deficit. Now Unions want to remove both.
    Initially MA seemed much better with a moderate GOP Governor Baker ( who won by 33% margin in 2018) , although the dem controlled legislature is ranked as the least transparent in the US.
    Baker stepped down. Trumpites took over GOP in 2022 and their candidate lost by 30%! so the Trumpites lost 60% of the electorate in 4 years!
    Now we have a one party state. Taxes have doubled. New income tax surcharge 4% over $500,000. Mansion tax 2% on sales of over $1,000,000. People are talking about Taxachusetts again
    A one party government is bad no matter who it is
  • Savita Subramanian: large cap value is the place to be for the next five years
    @WABAC and BenWP I've added to two other performance charts for different time frames when Value could have provided some 'head fakes'.
    --- Chart line colors likely vary by device type; but my laptop, for my very good eyes show red, a lime green and blue. Also, one may hover a pointer over the graph line at any point to 'see' the name of the fund/etf.
    VUG vs VTV vs SPY (a reference choice) This chart is for 2 years and covers the full years of 2022 and 2023.
    This chart is for the beginning of the COVID period and covers the full years of 2020 and 2021.
    'Course, I'm showing these as time frames for various periods which can cause any of us who may want to make decisions in 'real time'. A tough road, for sure. Being, is this investment area really a solid 'trend' and/or rotation?
    BIAS NOTE: We've been mostly U.S. centric investors for many years and fully since the melt of 2008. This includes equity and bonds. We obtain small pieces of international exposure via U.S. fund holdings. The 'other' bias is that we've been oriented to growth. 'Course there have a few scary periods for growth investors.
  • Investing in 'Rule of Law' countries
    ahh...so the lawfare didn't work...Orange Man still standing (ya, I'll give you so far anyways)...and how come no one on this board is writing about how Biden does not have the stamina nor cognition for the role...and who is really running the country..the Bolshie Ron Klain, Jill Biden? and their diversity pick for VP is obviously not competent either so therefore all the angst, no?
    Biden's presidency has been a total and complete flop...everything from intentionally opening the border to illegals consisting of who knows whom, a disaster re foreign policy, wars, emboldening Iran, not negotiating effectively prior to Putin marching into Ukraine, inflation up the wazoo which continues, using lawfare against his political opponents, out of control crime (don't BS me with false statistics, reporting of serious crime has been downgraded for the optics and many blue cities don't even report to the FBI stats anymore), freebies on the taxpayers dime, reducing school debt for many who make decent monies, what about the plumbers who didn't go to school to chase skirts and drink beer and screw off for 5 years?...and watching the debate...who in their right mind would think he is capable of holding office right now, let alone in the future?
  • "Markets have false sense of security"
    Sure, take out the engine of the world, and things will look different.
    Value has been lagging for about 15 years now.
    But one day.... :-)
  • Savita Subramanian: large cap value is the place to be for the next five years
    It represents one form of relative performance of USA growth vs value stocks. Growth has trounced value as we all know but in market sell offs value holds up better. Where are we now in that growth vs value cycle? Not at the bottom.
    Now that I can see all three lines, it looks to me like one Vanguard index has trounced another Vanguard index over five years spanning rapidly changing market conditions.
    If I had bought VSMIX or GQEPX five years ago I would be ahead of VUG. There may be other examples of funds that have performed better over the last five years. Those are just two that are on my watch list. I'll admit that only one of those is a value fund.
    If we were to look at the last three years, during which growth has been digging itself out of a very large hole, a number of funds in my watch list outperform VUG. Only two outperform IWY.
    I spent the last year ditching Vanguard index funds.
    Edit to add:
    Did a larger search at MFO Premium. Add HIMDX to the list of three funds that beat VUG over five years. The interesting thing about HIMDX is that it is a quant fund. Wouldn't we like to see the inside of their black box?
    But what if we went back three years? There are 20 value, or equity income, funds that are beating VUG.
    What if we went back to the start of "Normalization 2" which is 202112? Then we get a much larger number of value and equity income funds that are still beating VUG's return of 7.5 over that time period. (Lipper categorizes some funds as value that M* sees as blend.)
    People assume that growth will continue to beat value just because. But, as with comedy, timing is everything.
  • the July / post-Morningstar issue of MFO is live
    A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away two young Jedi fought side by side against ...
    Oh, right. Focus. Messrs. Samra and O'Keefe were fast rising stars analysts under David Herro at Harris Associates (i.e., the Oamark funds) together. They left Harris in 2002 over a disagreement concerning when they would be named partners. (Ed Studzinski, who was there at the time, sort of chronicled it in a 2018 essay.) They joined Artisan Partners and posted spectacular numbers running International Value together. They launched Global Value and put up spectacular numbers, all of which led to huge inflows. They were nominated six times as Morningstar's International manager of the year, and won the award twice. In 2018, they made a management decision to separate teams ... Mr. Samra would lead International Value, Mr. O'Keefe would lead Global Value.
    Over the past five years, both have done well. It's just that in both absolute and relative terms, International has done a lot better. (Top 3% versus top 30%, with a several hundred bps lead in absolute returns at a time when international, broadly speaking, trailed.) Oddly, Global was held by against its peer group because it had less exposure to hot US stocks than its average peer.
    One might conclude that Mr. O'Keefe is good and Mr. Samra is great. In any case, Morningstar just upgraded Global to a Gold analyst rating, arguing that the team is becoming deeper and more cohesive.
    For what that's worth.
  • Savita Subramanian: large cap value is the place to be for the next five years
    VUG vs VTV vs SPY chart total returns. 5 years.
    Value may remain value for good reasons and not yet ready for 'prime time'.