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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • PRMTX - Comapring recent 6 months to QQQ/XLC
    Thanks @Mark. I looked at the SAI for PRMTX. Just a bunch of legal gibberish and the same SAI is applicable to approximately 200 different TRP funds.
    Next I looked at the (most recent) June 2025 Semi-Annual Report for PRMTX and it was devoid of commentary from what I could see - just some pretty cut and dry reporting.
    So I went back to the (older) December 2024 Annual Report and did somewhat better. Here's the most enlightening portion of the commentary I located in the (December 2024) PRMTX annual Report:
    "What drove fund performance during the past 12 months?
    U.S. equities posted strong returns, lifted by by favorable economic data and corporate earnings reports alongside easing inflationary pressures and interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve. The results of the presidential election ended a lengthy period of uncertainty, further boosting stocks into year end. Large-cap and growth stocks performed best with notable strength from technology leaders at the forefront of artificial intelligence innovation. Streaming video service provider Netflix and semiconductor company NVIDIA were top absolute contributors for the fund in 2024. Netflix posted record subscriber growth, capitalizing on the competitive retrenchment of legacy media peers faced with over-levered balance sheets and deteriorating pay TV cash flows. Shares of NVIDIA advanced on strong graphics processing unit demand as large-cap technology platforms accelerated their investments behind AI model development. Advances in frontier model capabilities coupled with progress on AI monetization intensified the arms race unfolding at the infrastructure layer, benefiting NVIDIA as the leader in AI compute and networking solutions. Telecom services holdings in Comcast and American Tower detracted on an absolute basis. Comcast’s cable broadband unit faced ongoing share loss to fixed wireless and fiber competition. Muted macro tower demand pressured American Tower shares with U.S. mobile carriers having completed the bulk of their initial 5G network deployments. The portfolio reflects our focus on digital disruptors and the infrastructure operators enabling digital disruption. We aim to invest behind durable secular trends in the technology, media, and telecommunications space, balancing high conviction with responsible concentration when sizing positions in the portfolio."

    The above is followed by a roughly page-long section having graphs and some limited commentary. But it's more cut & dry, basically explaining how the fund's performance compared to benchmark(s).
    ISTM - The reports and what passes as "commentary" in recent years have become very dry & generic sounding where they once were colorful, witty and even speculative about what lie ahead. Perhaps this fund is an exception? But I doubt it.
  • Investing in Precious Metals - a Primer - redux
    Barron's STREETWISE. GOLD had a spectacular rally in 2025 (+69% YTD), but who beat gold? Silver +140% YTD, platinum +133% YTD, palladium +95% YTD. Precious metal ETFs are GLD, SLV, diversified DBP, etc. Next may be Dr Copper +36% YTD. The whole metals complex, “precious”, “base” or “other”, woke up. One “other” metal with potential is uranium +11% YTD only. Fit cobalt wherever you like, it was +115% YTD. Supply of some of these metals takes years to change, so prices react fast when there are sudden changes in demand due to economic, technological, and geopolitical changes. A diversified metals ETF is XME.
    High debt and currency debasement is the story for precious metals (for US and global). Gold:silver ratio fell to 57.28 (11+ year low) indicating that silver may have outrun gold too fast. Price targets for both gold and silver are wild. Goldminers (ETFs GDX, GDXJ, etc) figuratively have license to print money as their all-in average production costs are $1,569/troy oz (2025) and $1,715/troy oz (2026 est) – no wonder they are beating AI & tech. And unlike in the past, goldminers aren’t rushing to add capacity, but are paying off debt, doing buybacks, paying dividends (GDX yields 0.49%, GDXJ 1.02%).
    Open https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/975/weekly-business-digest-december-2025
    Open https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/silver-topped-gold-in-2025-it-s-copper-s-turn/ar-AA1T5wd6
    Subscription https://www.barrons.com/articles/silver-gold-copper-prices-fa6736e1
  • Investing in Precious Metals - a Primer - redux
    Thanks Rono!
    I've owned gold, platinum, and silver eagles for many years. But now I am wary of a correction and look to the ETFs for quick trades.
    Funny story - Working at Walmart, I visited the "coinstar" kiosk daily to see what people left in the return slot. The coinstar machines rejected silver coins and people left them in the return slot. Thus, I have several shoe boxes of silver coins too. Once, somebody left me a 5 peso Mexican gold coin in the return slot!
  • Investing in Precious Metals - a Primer - redux
    Syzygy,
    Wanted to get back to you with a bit more time. First of all, I do NOT like paper bullion. I invest in it because it allows me greater exposure than I might otherwise have and I'm riding this bull. It's been an artificial device for some 50 years and created a bifurcated market with paper price vs. physical (street) price. Many are saying that this parallel universe is coming to an end as I write. I know that Shanghai closed over $80 an ounce while the 'paper price' set by COMEX, et al. was $71. Normally, the players would arbitrage the living stuffing out this but at this point in time, there isn't the physical silver available to ship. That devolves to the whole demand/supply issue but we can talk about that later. The issue is that if paper price and street price converge, what happens to the paper bullion investment products? This is why you want to be careful playing this bull market with only paper bullion ETFs.
    Again, far better for countless reasons, to invest in hand-on physical bullion. Second best way is with mining stocks. Historically, silver trails gold and the miners trail both. The miners have been lagging. Who benefits if they ramp up production to meet the skyrocketing demand?
    Explore mining ETFs. Bunches.
    Be damn careful with any bullion ETF.
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    rono
  • Investing in Precious Metals - a Primer - redux
    Hi rono. Glad you are doing well and have enjoyed your post over the years including this one. My best to you in the coming years. Old_Skeet
  • Seven Investment Types M* Portfolio Strategist Does Not Own
    Article length too short to allow a really deep dive into any single area. Is "does not own" same as "has never owned"? Doubt that. Perhaps this is intended as some type of disclaimer since she's a M* employee and feels a need to come clean ...
    I haven't owned any gold / miners funds the last couple years, and prior to that in only small quantities. (She doesn't own any). Not something I'd care to brag about as it has trounced everything else I know of for the past 3 years.
    Alternatives get beaten up a lot. Such a wide and hard to define area. I'd say 80-90% not worth owning. But if very old and very risk averse there are some decent L/S funds that could possibly keep you from getting completely taken to the cleaners in a market wipe out. I don't think M* includes those under alternative in their schematics.
    Thanks for posting @Observant1
  • Seven Investment Types M* Portfolio Strategist Does Not Own
    Interesting indeed for a M* employee to publish this and for M* to post this on their site. Note the date cherry picking across the different asset classes -- 10/15/20 years
    Two points
    - Bug looking for a windshield
    - Data torture will produce whatever one desires.
  • 2025 Performance For 10 Largest Active Funds
    I don't know how many years ago I decided to exchange my large (for me) positions in Contra and Ponax (too big, too risky, too something else) for more-conservative ETFs. Sigh.
  • Investing in Precious Metals - a Primer - redux
    Howdy folks,
    I posted this originally on this board back about a dozen years ago during the PM bull market that ran from 2002 to 2011. Seeing that gold is up about 71% YTD and silver +147%, seems it might be appropriate to post an update. I've collected coins for 70 years and this is my third bull market in the metals. In that late 70s, during the Hunt Bros bull, I was finishing my degree (finally) in Econ on the GI bill augmented by a stash of 90% silver coinage I had bought out of change during a restaurant gig. The big bonanza from 2002 to 2011 was easy as I was working with self-manage retirement accounts. It was fun. Now, I'm retired and normally have our portfolios on cruise-control, but good golly, the bull is running.
    As a qualifier, I've been suggesting a PM holding of 3-7% for decades as an investment. More than that is speculation, which is fine, but different.
    First of all, physical bullion in your possession is the best of all possible ways to invest. Cripes, a roll of American Gold Eagles is about 2" tall and the size of a quarter in diameter. It's worth about $95,000 right now and you can stash it in the oatmeal box. A 100oz bar of silver is about $7700 and you can paint it black and use it as a door stop. Or you can buy bling, but not designer stuff. You don't want to pay a premium for the name.
    Many of you, myself included, use self-managed retirement funds and taxable monies to invest and speculate. With the PMs, there are two ways of playing them - bullion and mining stocks. There are bullion ETFs but keep them tax-deferred or exempt as gains get hit at 28%. For myself, I will only deal with Sprott ETFs for bullion because they must have possession of the bullion before they can sell you shares. This is unlike most of the bullion ETFs which do not have this rule and can take your money and then go looking for physical bullion with which to back it up. Right now, acquiring physical bullion is an international problem, particularly silver.
    The other way of investing is with the mining stocks. The gold and silver miners. Kitco has the best listing.
    https://www.kitco.com/mining/mining-equities
    Of note is that over 70% of silver comes as a by-product of other mining - lead, zinc and copper. This is why it's hard to increase production to meet skyrocketing industrial demand. Some of these penny stocks are serious nosebleed stuff. That said, you can make a killing if you do your homework. While I own a few individual stocks [I just can't help myself], I choose to use ETFs that specialize in gold, silver, both, large cap, small cap miners, etc. Right now I'm riding SILJ, SGDJ, SLVR, PSLV, AND CEF.
    Bias? Sure, I prefer silver to gold, although I am riding both. Silver has always exhibited much greater leverage than gold. In the Hunt Bros. bull, gold rose 3x, silver rose 10x. Same thing in the 2002-2011 bull and it's happening again right now. Why is this? I believe it involves that Gold Silver Ratio being artificial due to bullion having a paper price and physical price. Originally, I thought it was bullion ETFs, but now it seems to trace back to the 70's. There is also the supply issue which in the face of increased demand is huge. You've got Central banks and sovereign states buying and industrial usage has gone nuts. Feh, all this puts a bottom under the price.
    BTW, an ounce of silver is now worth more than a barrel of oil.
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    rono
  • regional trade thematics

    even though flip-flopping via trump's EO tariffs may go away (he will ignore or try another route if self-beneficial), regional trade will grow as a foundation against american instability beyond the next 3 years.
    nations that distrust america and\or china will steadily, if informally, stick more to local block of partners that are less outsized.
    e.g., i expect europe to minimize longterm contractual dependence on the american defense sector, getting more value internally and via countries like s.korea.
    ...tariffs are beginning to backfire as the global trading regime gradually reduces reliance on the US as a trading partner. Rather than suffering damage, China’s annual trade surplus as of November surpassed US$1t for the first time, with December figures set to grow as Beijing found more salubrious trading partners.
    ...with projections suggesting more than US$1t in costs for businesses and consumers due to new US tariffs, affecting key sectors like auto, steel, and wood products, significantly increasing effective rates for major partners like China and developing nations, and contributing to inflation and trade tension globally. But once nations acquire new trading partners, they are likely to become permanent...'
    https://www.asiasentinel.com/p/trump-tariffs-secondary-global-damage
  • Jim Beam Halts Production as Whiskey Market Struggles
    And @hank has stopped buying it:
    @hank said,
    40-50 years ago I couldn't get enough JB. Can't stand it today.
    One wonders - Has Beam's quality diminished over the last half century? I did pick up a few samplers a month or so ago. One "on the rocks" was enough to dissuade me from indulging further.
    On another note, Hank Williams JR mentions Beam in a song:
    "Lordy, I have loved some ladies
    And I have loved Jim Beam
    And they both tried to kill me in 1973"
  • Jim Beam Halts Production as Whiskey Market Struggles
    And @hank has stopped buying it:
    @hank said,
    40-50 years ago I couldn't get enough JB. Can't stand it today.
  • Dictator Trump Halts Five Wind Farms Off the East Coast- Imperils Billions of Dollars of Investments
    Court disputes may now move from contract pauses/cancellations to long-term lease pauses/cancellations.
    Some land-leases are for 50-100 years and if they can be pauses/cancelled on short notice, many businesses will be affected.
  • Jim Beam Halts Production as Whiskey Market Struggles
    It could be that Americans are drinking less and so have become more discerning and less price conscious in what they buy. Good scotch will run you 3X as much, if not more. 40-50 years ago I couldn't get enough JB. Can't stand it today. Some of the decline in alcohol consumption is probably related to aging "boomers".
    Mitch McConnell can't be pleased with the news.
  • Jim Beam Halts Production as Whiskey Market Struggles
    Following are edited excerpts from a current report in The New York Times:
    The bourbon giant is closing its flagship distilling operation for all of 2026.
    Jim Beam, the country’s largest maker of bourbon, has announced a one-year pause in production at its flagship facility in Clermont, Ky., a stunning move that underlines the immense challenges facing the American whiskey industry after more than two decades of rapid growth. The decision is the latest in a series of production cuts, layoffs and financial crises across the wine, beer and spirits sector, which has seen sales drop by about 5 percent over the past year.
    The situation will likely get worse as 2025 draws to a close: At the end of October MGP Ingredients, which distills whiskey on contract for other brands, reported a 19 percent drop in sales for the third quarter. In September, the global drinks company Diageo paused distillation at its Cascade Hollow facility in Tullahoma, Tenn., which produces George Dickel Tennessee whiskey. In January, Brown-Forman, the maker of whiskeys like Jack Daniel’s and Old Forester, announced it was laying off about 650 employees, or 12 percent of its work force, in the face of declining demand. And over the last year several large whiskey companies have gone into receivership.
    The sudden, steep decline in bourbon sales comes after more than 20 years of expansion in American whiskey, which proved especially popular during the pandemic. Much, but not all, of that whiskey came from big legacy producers like Jim Beam. But it also came from a relatively new category of distilleries that produce on contract for customers and investors, who saw the quick growth in whiskey as an easy and fun way to make money.
    Analysts cite recent economic challenges related to President Trump’s tariffs. A backlash from Canadian consumers and provinces, which control alcohol sales, has virtually stopped the sale of American whiskey in what was once among the industry’s biggest export markets. Overall, exports of American whiskey are down about 9 percent from 2024. At the same time, the president’s unpredictable approach to tariff policy has made it difficult to expand into new markets, especially South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, three regions that major American whiskey distillers had once hoped to turn into reliable destinations for millions of bottles a year.
    Given the continued economic and cultural headwinds, the pause at Jim Beam is both a sign of how bad things have gotten for the industry and a harbinger of more shutdowns to come.
    “It’s a sad day for bourbon, to be honest with you,” Mr. Minnick said. “For this to happen is a real punch in the gut.”

    Comment:   Yet another smart move. Trump, as always, thinking ahead and taking care of the American workers. I wonder how many of those losing their jobs voted for this repulsive person?

  • Dictator Trump Halts Five Wind Farms Off the East Coast- Imperils Billions of Dollars of Investments
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The New York Times:
    The Interior Department said the projects posed national security risks, without providing details. The decision imperils billions of dollars of investments.
    The Trump administration on Monday said it would pause leases for five wind farms under construction off the East Coast, essentially gutting the country’s nascent offshore wind industry in a sharp escalation of President Trump’s crusade against the renewable energy source. The decision injected uncertainty into $25 billion worth of projects that were collectively expected to power more than 2.5 million homes and businesses across the Eastern United States, according to Turn Forward, an offshore wind advocacy group. The five wind farms were projected together to create about 10,000 jobs.
    It left intact just two operational wind farms in U.S. coastal waters — one small project off Rhode Island that has been complete since 2016 and a larger project off New York that has been fully operational since 2023.
    The five wind farms targeted on Monday had all obtained leases from the Biden administration. But citing unspecified national security concerns, the Trump administration said it would freeze those leases, effectively blocking construction or operations and jeopardizing billions of dollars that have already been invested. One of the projects, Vineyard Wind 1 off Massachusetts, is already partially running, with about half of the project’s 62 turbines sending power to the electric grid.
    But in announcing the pause, Doug Burgum, the secretary of the interior, said in a statement that “the prime duty of the United States government is to protect the American people.” He said the decision “addresses emerging national security risks as well as “vulnerabilities created by large-scale offshore wind projects with proximity near our East Coast population centers.”
    Mr. Trump has repeatedly called offshore wind turbines ugly, costly and inefficient. He has disparaged the clean energy source ever since he failed 14 years ago to stop an offshore wind farm visible from of one of his golf courses in Scotland.
    In addition to Vineyard Wind 1, the other projects affected by the pause are Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind off Virginia, Sunrise Wind and Empire Wind off New York, and Revolution Wind off Rhode Island and Connecticut.
    Jeremy Slayton, a spokesman for Dominion Energy, called the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind Project “essential for American national security and meeting Virginia’s dramatically growing energy needs.” The company argued that stopping the project for any length of time would threaten grid reliability “for some of the nation’s most important war fighting, A.I. and civilian assets.”
    Mr. Slayton also dismissed the administration’s unspecified national security concerns, saying the wind farm was developed “in close coordination with the military.” He also noted that the project’s two pilot turbines have been operating for five years without causing any impacts to national security.
    The Interior Department’s description of its decision "said the Pentagon had produced classified reports" that found the wind farms posed national security risks and that an unclassified report from the Energy Department had found that wind farms could interfere with radar systems.
    Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York, said in a statement, “Trump’s obsession with killing offshore wind projects is unhinged, irrational, and unjustified.” He said New York would “keep fighting” the administration’s stop-work orders on Empire and other offshore wind projects.
    The financial consequences for the developers of the five offshore wind farms could be dire. When work on Empire Wind was initially paused in April, Equinor said it was losing $50 million a week because of idled equipment and workers. Delays to Revolution Wind were estimated to cost its developer, Orsted, approximately $15 million per week. In October, Orsted said it would cut about 2,000 jobs, or around 25 percent of its work force, over the next two years, a decision fueled by the Trump administration’s actions as well as tariffs, high inflation and interest rates.
    On the first day of his second presidential term, Mr. Trump issued a sweeping executive order halting all leasing of federal lands and waters for new wind farms. His administration has since gone after wind farms that had received permits from the Biden administration and were either under construction or about to start. The administration’s approach has suffered some legal setbacks. A federal judge this month struck down the halt on leasing mandated by the January order, saying it was “arbitrary and capricious,” violating federal law.
    Attorney General William Tong of Connecticut, a Democrat, said in a statement that the new order to pause Revolution Wind is “even more lawless and erratic” than the first. “We went to court over this before,” Mr. Tong said, noting that a court order is in place blocking the administration’s previous attempt to stop the wind farm. “Every day this project is stalled is another day of lost work, another day of unaffordable energy costs, and other day burning fossil fuels when American-made clean energy is within reach,” he said.
    Retired U.S. Navy Cmdr. Kirk Lippold disputed the Trump administration’s claim that offshore wind projects threaten national security. He noted all five projects halted on Monday had undergone rigorous reviews, including by the Defense Department. “Ironically, these projects will actually benefit our national security by diversifying America’s energy supplies, providing much-needed reliable power for the grid and helping our economy,” Mr. Lippold said.

    Comment:   "said the Pentagon had produced classified reports"
    Trump knows that he would lose this in court on purely legal grounds, so he had Hegseth produce "classified reports" that found the wind farms posed national security risks. Big Oil is certainly getting their money's worth.
    "We are led by the most loathsome human being ever to occupy the White House."

    Note: Text emphasis added to above report.
  • 2026 S&P 500 Predictions
    "Now, we have another year of data, and this is how the forecasts of equity analysts (bottom-up)
    and equity strategists (top-down) fared in 2024. At the start of 2024, equity analysts expected the S&P 500
    to rise by 7.9%, while strategists were outright bearish with an expected increase of 1.9%.
    The true return in 2024 was – checks notes – 23%."
    Forecast returns vs. actual outcome for the S&P 500
    image
    "Well done everyone. Now back to the drawing board and let’s do this all over again.
    Never mind that strategists and equity analysts got it wrong practically every year.
    Indeed, over the last 20 years, the correlation between forecast returns and actual returns
    the following year for bottom-up forecasts was 0.2 for bottom-up forecasts and 0.0 for strategist forecasts."
    https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/let-me-fix-those-forecasts-for-you?
  • 2026 S&P 500 Predictions
    "Strategists have lots of interesting things to say, but index targets are mostly a marketing exercise.
    They usually call for a gain in the high single-digits because that’s a pretty safe guess—the 50-year
    average change in the S&P 500 has been 8.9%."
    "Just know that average isn’t typical: There have only been two years in the past 30
    when the S&P 500 actually rose by between 5% and 10%."
    image
    https://marketsam.cmail20.com/t/d-e-gilnlt-duklntldl-r/
  • Regional Fed Bank President Reappointments by Federal Reserve
    Regional Fed Bank President Reappointments by Federal Reserve
    The significance of early reappointments of Fed Bank Presidents on 12/11/25, the day after the FOMC rate announcement on 12/10/25, was largely missed. But it's becoming clear in the hindsight.
    There had been speculation that the routine February annual reappointments of the Regional Fed Bank Presidents by the Federal Reserve may be disrupted. Federal Reserve acted, in hindsight, preemptively by (i) early reappointments in December 2025 & (ii) the new reappointments are for 5-years (02/2026-02/2031), not annual. So, no drama this February, or the next February, or the next... Unless this is somehow overturned.
    12 regional Federal Reserve Banks are private entities with their own boards but operate under the overall supervision of the Federal Reserve. That's what makes them lightly semi-public & makes FOMC semi-public: 7 Federal Governors nominated by the President & confirmed by the Senate, & 5/12 regional Fed Bank Presidents selected solely by their boards.
    Facebook post LINK
    LinkedIn post LINK
    Federal Reserve press release https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20251211a.htm
  • Your experience using Fidelity's portfolio analyzer?
    I used to think this pretty reliable. For years there seemed to be a 1-2 day lag after major buys / sells in updating, but not a problem. Then one day last week my equity allocation increased by 10% virtually overnight for no apparent reason. Enough to cast doubt on this analyzer. Albeit, I had long suspected the lower equity reading was incorrect. Wonder about others' experiences if you typically use this feature?