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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The end of Portfolio Visualizer as we knew it
    One PV LOOPHOLE is that the 10-year periods don't have to be recent, so free PV runs can be made for successive 10-year periods. Following are the PV runs for Bengen-type 4% withdrawals with annual COLA for 3 10-yr periods covering 30 years. Of course, some additional calculations will be needed to consolidate the data for straight 30 years.
    5/1/1994 - 4/30/2004, PV Run 1 https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=3v2yQJiyMm7H7MVQ6KQQQM
    5/1/2004 - 4/30/2014, PV Run 2 https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=41iTQ6EPGl0IjDgu80T37C
    5/1/2014 - 4/30/2024, PV Run 3 https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=4DBz45FjX7qA3Lh3nfENnz
  • T. Rowe Price Technology ETF in registration
    Thanks for the heads up.
    Anyone interested in this one? Looks like an ETF version of PRGTX (TRP Global Technology fund), which hasn't done too bad since the manager change. I'm curious what the fee will be.
    The link says:
    Portfolio Management
    T. Rowe Price has established an Investment Advisory Committee with respect to the fund. The committee chair is ultimately responsible for the day-to-day management of the fund’s portfolio and works with the committee in developing and executing the fund’s investment program. The members of the committee are as follows: Dominic Rizzo, chair, Kennard W. Allen, Stephanie Beebe, Shawn T. Driscoll, Gregory Dunham, David J. Eiswert, Sam Johnson, Lu (Jacqueline) Liu, Ross MacMillan, Jennifer O’Hara Martin, Anna Nussbaum, Frank Shi, Joshua K. Spencer, James Stillwagon, Taymour R. Tamaddon, Anthony Bruce Wang, and Ari Weisband. The following information provides the year that the chair first joined the Firm and the chair’s specific business experience during the past five years (although the chair may have had portfolio management responsibilities for a longer period). Mr. Rizzo has been chair of the committee since the fund’s inception in [2024].

  • "It Could Happen To You." Make you laugh. Schwab.
    @Crash
    But there's a wall around wifey's Trad IRA.
    What does this mean?
    Hello, @catch22.
    There are a few angles going on. Neither of us has any earned income. Not officially, I mean. I don't think we are even eligible to put anything more into either of our Trad. IRAs. Years ago, you were recommending that we convert to Roths. We didn't, and it's worked out better for us.
    So... It's too early to withdraw anything from wifey's IRA without a penalty. She's not 59 and a half, yet. And we can't ADD, either. Neither can we add to my own IRA. No earned income. Which is why we created the taxable trading account.
    Here at MFO, we religiously don't speak in terms of raw dollar amounts. That's a good idea. So, in practical terms, we have erected our OWN wall around wifey's IRA, because it's premature to make withdrawals, and also because the whole thing is worth just a hair more than $11k. Kinda useless to be rearranging and "diworsifying," while dealing with only that much money.
  • WealthTrack Show
    October 2016 - The Next 10 Years Will be Ugly for Your 401 (k) https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/81779/#Comment_81779
    February 2021 - Waiting for the Last Dance https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/137072/#Comment_137072
    September 2022 - Pessimism is deepening as bellwether companies warn of worsening economic and business conditions. https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/153433/#Comment_153433
    October 2022 - WTO Sees Sharp Slowdown in Global Trade, Pointing to Possible Recession, Lower Inflation https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60122/wto-sees-sharp-slowdown-in-global-trade-pointing-to-possible-recession-lower-inflation/p1
    June 2022 - NY Fed Sees 80% Probability of Hard Landing https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/150603/#Comment_150603
    February 2023 - Jeffrey Gundlach says he’s preparing for a recession and it doesn’t matter what you call it— ‘In eit https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60716/jeffrey-gundlach-says-he-s-preparing-for-a-recession-and-it-doesn-t-matter-what-you-call-it-in-eit/p1
    March 2023 - Could First Republic’s collapse trigger a recession? https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/161473/#Comment_161473
    November 2023 - Leuthold: the lights have all turned red, time to lighten up on stocks https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2023/11/
  • Bonds in La-La Land
    Interesting Barron’s story about the Southern California bond ecosystem.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/you-ll-never-trade-bonds-in-this-town-again/ar-BB1mzDel
    Nice story, very little what to do in bondland.
    "Gross, now 80 and as irascible as ever, continues to opine on the market (he dislikes bonds now) and manages a good chunk of money."
    Gross lost it years ago.
    IMO, finally bonds look better. BND, the most recommended index made 0.2% average annually for 5 years and 1.3% for 10 years
  • paying property tax with a CC
    I have been paying property taxes with a credit card for years.
    In my case, county charges 2.5% fee.
  • "It Could Happen To You." Make you laugh. Schwab.
    Transferred the Bruce money into Schwab via indirect rollover with a Bruce cheque. It sat as "cash" for ONE day in the account. That one day generated 13 CENTS of interest. After a chat on the Schwab website, there is clearly nothing to be done except to let that 13 cents ride, like a flea on a hippopotamus, for 438 years until it grows to be at least $1.00. THEN, it can be used to buy shares in the chosen mutual fund.
    Truth is stranger than fiction. I shit you not.
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    I have the Fido 2% cash back for many years. The first time I did a dispute was last week, what a pain in the A$$. You must talk to a rep and it took 30 minutes for a simple dispute.
    I joined Penfed 15-20 years ago, (anyone can) and have 2 cards
    1) 5% cash back on all gas stations, you must fill at the pump. I use it only for gas. It also pays 3% for supermarkets, food and more. But Walmart and Aldi where I shop are not included.
    2) 2% cash back worldwide on everything.
    Both cards have a real zero fee worldwide and good customer service. You can dispute online in minutes.
    Last year they helped me with a tough case against a car rental in the Netherlands, I got all the money, they canceled the card and got me a new one so the merchant could not charge me again.
    Wow, I just talked myself out of using the Fidelity CC.
    See it at https://www.penfed.org/credit-cards
    Other than that I'm not interested in points and/or limited cards and/or gradually increasing cards. Give it to me simple.
  • Rising Auto & Home Insurance Costs
    @Old_Joe : "
    After a couple of expensive episodes of emergency sewer line cleanout due to clogs snagged on that we switched to the thin stuff, and all has been well since. "
    After being a plumber for a number of years, first I've heard of this. I'll run this by others at the next retirees luncheon.
    Good for you, Derf
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    Oh, I wasn't talking about Fidelity/Elan. I was thinking, perhaps of one of the AAA cards, though they are provided by Bread Financial/Comenity Bank. That is not well regarded either. So a AAA card may not be a better alternative.
    I'm looking for a backup card for foreign travel. Backup means it won't be used frequently but reliability is important. It seems that QuickSilver (Capital One) changed from Visa to MC a couple of years ago. It checks all my boxes.
    It pays only 1.5% cash back, but for an infrequently used card a half percent difference isn't important. What does matter is that it has no annual fee or foreign transaction fee. And MC means it complements the Visa card I use for foreign travel. A modest signup bonus ($200) is a small plus. Not to mention half off coffee drinks in their cafes.
    Obviously, each person's criteria are different. The Fidelity card works nicely for many.
  • MRFOX
    BIVRX gained 61.2% in 2021, and then followed that up by rising 49.5% in 2022. This "long-short" fund has 6 positive calendar years of gains, 0 negative.
    However, in 2024 it is down YTD..... close to (-9%) thus far. It's worth a small allocation to me. Long-short funds are so funky.
  • Rising Auto & Home Insurance Costs
    Just bought a 2013 Odyssey with cash. Won't be paying much more for insurance than we've been paying on the 2002. With any luck, it will be our last van.
    Wouldn't be buying umbrella insurance if we had spent the last 45 years buying cars on credit.
    Great post by @catch22 immediately above this post. I wasn't driving in the 60's. but we ended up driving several cars from that era.
  • Rising Auto & Home Insurance Costs
    @Crash You noted:
    Remember when dents could be hammered out and sanded smooth again? Check out the solidity of a 1958 DeSoto vs. a compact 2023 Suzuki sedan.
    Note: dents can still be 'worked' out, just adjust for inflation.
    Generally, we're talking more than fender dents, eh?
    I was auto driving in 1963, in no seat belt cars. No 'new' safety glass in windshields, etc.
    When I bought my first new car in 1966, some advertising mentioned the 'new' safety glass windshields, being: 'Beginning in 1966 cars came equipped with improved laminated windshields that could withstand nearly three times the impact of earlier versions. In the 60s and 70s Federal Motor Vehicle Safety standards were set for the strength and clarity of laminated windshields (FMVSS 205); windshield retention strength during accidents (FMVSS 212); roof rigidity in rollover accidents (FMVSS 216); and limits on windshield penetration (FMVSS 219). 'The car also had 'lap' seat belts.
    My graduating class lost several classmates from auto accidents. They likely would have survived had they been driving a vehicle built in the last 10 years.
    Three weeks ago, 5 local high school kids were returning from a morning STEM class and the driver lost control of an Equinox. The SUV crossed the two lane road center line, dove into the ditch and then rolled about 6 times. Only one passenger had a broken leg, with the others having bangs and bruises. The photo of the SUV looked really nasty.
    An add:
    Auto Crumple Zones, a brief article. These zones are intended to protect the passenger compartment and the folks within.
    Anyway, things aren't always simple, eh?; without knowing more. You've watched the 'crash tests?
  • Rising Auto & Home Insurance Costs
    The CPI index this morning (May 15) was down a bit, which is good; but Bloomberg cited that the very large increases in auto insurance (which is a portion of the index) had an affect on the CPI not being lower. So, as has been discussed here; auto insurance rates are being noticed by others, too.
    From NYTimes:
    two years ago ... [t]he Covid pandemic disrupted supply chains... making spare parts hard to get; out-of-practice drivers emerging from lockdowns caused more severe wrecks; and technological advancements like motion sensors made even the simplest parts, like a fender or a rim, expensive to replace.
    ... Car insurers are still raising prices steeply: The price of motor vehicle insurance rose more than 22 percent in the year through April. ...
    That has made car insurance a prominent factor preventing overall inflation from cooling more quickly, ...
    A key reason car insurance costs are rising so fast right now has to do with how the industry is regulated. ... [A combination of insurers not having been able to set rates intelligently because of skewed historical driving patterns during the pandemic and because of regulatory backlogs when all the insurers finally filed for increases all at once.]
    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/15/business/car-insurance-cost-inflation.html
    FWIW, I just got my quote and it's about 25% above a year ago (I'm on a 6 month cycle but I'm looking back to the mid 2023 bill). It's in line with the industry but it still stings.
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    I’ll have to confess … in several hundred flights over 50+ years I’ve never found myself ordering pizza delivery at 2:30 AM from some outfit in a Chicago suburb. Flight was more than 7 hours behind schedule. Missed a connection home. Booked a room near O’Hare. All 4 of my cards were declined the first try. One local bank debit card went through the second time. I had called the bank before leaving and left travel notes. The pizza was great. I never eat it except under the most stressful travel situations. Last one was 4 or 5 years earlier when got stranded in NYC an extra night. Which was better? I’d give a slight edge to NYC pizza.
    Sorry to deflate your balloon @msf. Go ahead and use your “special offer.” I don’t think I want any part of this. :)
  • Td acquired by schwab
    Two of my remaining active accounts (and a few dormant ones) migrated over the weekend and so far smooth as silk. Began placing trades first thing Monday morning. I received my checks for my taxable account as promised a few days before the transfer. I do not embrace change much but so far no trauma attached with this changeover. I had a dormant account move over last year and I transferred monies from TD to that account to familiarize myself with their platform. Also Schwab had access to more funds than what was available to me at TD. My only remaining concern is receiving my accumulated dividends from the funds held before the transfer.
    I thoroughly enjoyed my years at TD Ameritrade (after they absorbed Scottrade) Can’t say there was ever a problem. A few observations. The private client service department at TD was heads above that of Schwab. The reps far more friendly and down home at TD. Fortunately most of the TD reps have migrated to Schwab too. Most annoying is at TD I could get a rep after one or two rings. At Schwab have to dance through more hoops. But what are my options. I had a couple problems when I was at Fidelity in years past and would never return there. E*trade doesn’t have the fund selections needed. And at least from what I read - like everywhere - Vanguard has had deteriorating customer service over the years.
  • Vanguard's new CEO
    And they don't tell you much about how much they get paid. Most "directors" are listed as directors for dozens of funds
    You may be confusing executive management (full time job) pay with the compensation given to The Vanguard Group's board of directors and/or the compensation given to each Vanguard Fund's board of trustees.
    It's not unusual for companies to keep secret their executive (management) compensation. According to Bloomberg (via Investment News) "Vanguard hasn’t reported figures on pay to senior officers since the 1990s."
    https://www.investmentnews.com/industry-news/archive/vanguard-keeps-its-own-management-pay-under-wraps-70402
    But that doesn't seem to be what you have in mind. You describe what some people get as "Not bad for what, a few hours work a month or so!". Those are not full time senior officers, those are directors or trustees.
    AFAIK, The Vanguard Group's directors receive no compensation for their work on that board. (I'm interested if anyone has concrete information on this.) Rather, they receive compensation for working on trustee boards of individual Vanguard funds. Each board pays a rather modest amount, but when you add up 200 funds, that does come to a pretty penny.
    This compensation is public record, easily accessible.
    Jeff DeMAso of Independent Vanguard Advisor says that Deana Mulligan got $1.5 million as a director in the six years she was on the Board
    Actually, it was about 20% more than that. It's all in SEC filings:
    Total compensation from all Vanguard funds (not The Vanguard Group) for Deana Mulligan was:
    2023: $330 K
    2022: $330 K
    2021: $330 K
    2020: $287.5K
    2019: $287.5K
    2018: $287.5K
    Total:$1852.5K
    Perhaps Jeff DeMaso disregarded the 2023 compensation because Ms. Mulligan chose to defer that compensation. I would still consider her compensated for that year.
    FWIW, I used Wellington's SAIs. This data is available in all Vanguard funds' SAIs.
  • More Americans are falling behind on their credit card bills.
    Following are excerpts from a current NPR report:
    About 8.9% of credit card balances fell into delinquency over the last year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York — a sign that a growing number of borrowers are feeling the strain of rising prices and high interest rates.
    "Everything is more expensive. Debt is more expensive. Rent is more expensive. Food, gas, everything," says Charlie Wise, senior vice president at TransUnion, the credit reporting firm. "Even with relatively healthy wage gains we've seen over last several years, many consumers just aren't keeping up with the price pressures."

    Maxed-out borrowers are a big concern-

    The New York Fed's report shows the pain is not evenly spread. While many households are on solid financial footing, almost 1 in 5 cardholders is "maxed out," using at least 90% of their credit card limit. That's worrisome, the report says, because maxed-out borrowers are much more likely to fall behind on their bills.
    People under 30 and those who live in low-income neighborhoods were particularly likely to be maxed out, according to the report. Among Generation Z borrowers, about 1 in 6 was close to exhausting their credit, compared with 4.8% of baby boomers.
  • Vanguard's new CEO
    And they don't tell you much about how much they get paid. Most "directors" are listed as directors for dozens of funds
    Jeff DeMAso of Independent Vanguard Advisor says that Deana Mulligan got $1.5 million as a director in the six years she was on the Board
    Not bad for what, a few hours work a month or so!
  • Dow 40,000
    IOW, the usual once a decade (or more) unexpected shocks.
    https://www.ft.com/content/5148cd1e-cf01-11e4-893d-00144feab7de
    At least we made it to 36,000, also predicted in 1999.
    https://www.amazon.com/Dow-36-000-Strategy-Profiting/dp/0812931459
    The Glassman [Dow 36,000] thesis was that investors had somehow, for all of history, misunderstood how truly risk-free investing in stocks was, and that they would within a few years come to this realization.
    ...
    No one could have, in 1999, perfectly anticipated that there would be a crash in tech stocks, the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, two major wars and a global financial crisis over the subsequent decade.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/03/08/the-author-of-the-spectacularly-wrong-dow-36000-has-some-new-thoughts-on-the-stock-market/