Commodities is THE ONE sector that stands high atop my investment No Fly Zone.
I've tried to gainfully invest directly in the sector a coupla times since 1980. I have NEVER outperformed the S&P with any commodities investment and I have usually LOST money. Sometimes, pretty BIG money.
My worst? Energy and Oil. Just Say No!
My best? Gold and Gold Miners. If you must, I kindly suggest using legendary poster uncleharley as your market timing guide.
Tough love here, so take my comments with a proverbial grain of salt and PLEASE do not be offended. Just trying to help.
Here goes: Your OP comments reek of the same type of crap that I used to spew to myself just before taking the commodities plunge.
STOP and look at your comments objectively, if possible:
You say:
"I have recently come to believe in a thesis that there is a substantial likelihood of a spike in commodities prices over a year timescale..."
I hear:
I have a new, bright investment idea but I'm pretty sure it's going to require unusual market timing abilities to be even reasonably successful.
You say:
"I have not invested much in commodities before..."
I hear:
I am a prime candidate for a cold call from a broker at one of the major commodities exchanges [ICE Futures U.S., the Chicago Board of Trade, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)] asking me if I would like to set up an account.
I will ask them how much it takes to open an account.
They will say, "Well first sucker, how much do you have to lose?"
Note that I had that very conversation (save the "sucker" reference!) several years ago with a broker at CME. I foolishly laughed it off at the time, and went on my merry way, investing instead in commodities ETFs and OEFs.
Here's hoping you at least consider NOT doing the same.

A current selection of article titles from M*'s earnings section:
Is Home Depot Stock a Buy Going Into Earnings?
Is Coinbase Stock a Buy After Earnings?
Is Palantir Stock a Buy After Earnings?
Roblox: Weakening Engagement Weighs On Growth
Energy Transfer: M&A Drives Guidance Increase
Arm: Shares Fall as 2025 Guidance Disappoints
Is Microsoft Stock a Buy After Earnings?
Is Alphabet Stock a Buy After Earnings?
Is Amazon Stock a Buy After Earnings?
Is ServiceNow Stock a Buy After Earnings?
Is Berkshire Hathaway Stock a Buy After Earnings?
These clickbaity titles are very Buzzfeed-y and not something I'd expect to see from a reputable investing site. Heck, not even SeekingAlpha is that bad .... and frankly I'm finding far more useful information/discussions/ideas over there (esp in the comments sections) than M*. Glad I only paid a tiny fraction of the regular price to see what had changed in recent years - frankly I'm not impressed w/them anymore; in perusing their content this past month, they seem to have strayed from the things that used to make them more unique/useful in my mind and become just another retail-oriented investing news site no different than anyone else.

In over 6 years, NICHX (interval fund) has only had 2 negative months of performance. Stale pricing may or may not be an issue with these types of funds (illiquid fund holdings).
I have access via Schwab PCRA acct and am liking the 9% per year average returns. Hate the withdrawal issues with interval funds, but can manage.
https://funds.variantinvestments.com/
Any other pitfalls here?

Whoa ! My car insurance jumped 60% from April 2023 to October 2023 ! From $50.18 to $94.32. For six months on a 1998 BMW M Roadster. It went up another $2 this April. I'm not going to complain. OK, I don't carry collision or comprehensive, but still.
Over the years, State Farm has done right by me on several occasions. I don't think about switching. (The Volvo only went up 13%, mainly due to Property Protection.)

May 5 & 11 Episodes:

Teresa Ghilarducci argues that working longer is not the solution to the retirement crisis. She explains why not and what is.

PIMCO’S Group Chief Investment Officer Dan Ivascyn also runs the world’s largest actively managed bond fund, PIMCO Income. He says bond returns are the most attractive they have been in years and even rival stocks.

I’ve had 12% of our portfolio in VWIAX for some time, but have paired it back by 1/3. With VWIAX invested in value stocks and intermediate bonds, its performance has lagged for several years.
When I first started investing, I had bought into the large and small value concept that they are the sweet spot of equity investing. This has not been my personal experience these last few years. This may still bare out over time, but my personal timeline is more limited than the market itself.
I’ve slowly been reallocating to more of a total stock market focus. There are so many interesting funds that are available, which I’ve dabbled in over the past few years. But once I’ve purchased a starter position, I ask myself if I’m willing to invest an amount that can make a difference in my total returns, and often the answer is no and I sell that fund. After being an investor in VWIAX for many years, the answer to that question has been shifting.

@Derf
We will shop insurance again in 2025, as we have seen how switching companies (quality) for the same coverage every several years may provide a price advantage. I will note, as has been written by others here; is for the consideration of quality and proper service, if and when needed. A few neighbors in the past 2 years have had minor auto damage claims with the company we now use, and a representative was at their home the next day to take a few pics of the vehicle and fill the paperwork for a most timely process of repairs needed. The neighbors were quite pleased.
A snippet: 'How much an umbrella policy costs depends on many variables. Many of the factors that affect your home insurance and auto insurance costs may affect the cost of your umbrella policy. These could include location, the features in your home, the types of cars you drive and your claims history. The underwriting criteria for an umbrella policy can be more restrictive than an auto or home policy. Those with occupations deemed too risky or who have had liability claims in the past may not qualify for coverage.'
A longer write regarding an umbrella policy from Bankrate.com.

Catch - I can provide an update when I know more. Possibly the quality & coverage of such policies varies by company?
I’ve long elected to have insurance payments come out of my bank account automatically on a monthly basis. In the early days of getting a handle on my finances (when I just learning how to run an annual household budget) I went with that option because recurring payments seemed easier to manage. Today, 30 years later, it wouldn’t make any difference. But I’ve stayed with the monthly auto-payment method.

FMSDX is a multi-asset fund that holds stocks, bonds and some alternatives. It is riskier than VWIAX. Although classified as conservative-allocation (CA), it is somewhere between CA and MA, taking into account its lower grade bonds.
VWINX / VWIAX is a classic stock-bond CA fund. Stocks are value/dividend oriented and bonds investment-grade. A very simple formula at very low ER. It's so cheap and simple that no one else has bothered copying it.

Thanks, yogi.
What bothers me about VWIAX is its poor return over the past three years.
I forgot about another moderately conservative allocation fund, PRCFX (T. Rowe Price Cap Apprec and Income), that is brand new but is run by the excellent and experienced manager of PRWCX.
Do you have an opinion about PRCFX?

I have lost al hope that most organizations can keep up with hackers. The only hacks we probably hear about seem to be health care institutions that are probably legally mandated to report.
Can you imagine the downside to Schwab's stock price if it admitted a multi-billion dollar hack?
Like Old Joe we have had credit freezes on all our accounts for years. Not fool proof but I think it helps

Thank you to everyone for their input, and especially @briboe69 to verify what we thought we needed to do.
We have started the process, as per the paperwork received. I will update this thread as everything progresses in the future.
One last 'complaint' about our wonderful world of all things online. We've had a 'home' online presence since 1997; and have fully enjoyed the experience. My 'work' career had me involved with technology for more than 40 years; and many more years of keeping 'up' with everything involved with technology at home.
While I understand the ongoing attacks and system breaches of data centers of all sorts; I keep my fingers crossed that all organizations are spending the money needed to hire the folks they need to attempt to stay ahead of the hackers.
We keep all of our home systems up to date and use VPN for online; and anti virus programs. The only periodic downside for VPN is that it has to be disabled for access to some online accounts. A small bother to deal with for some protection.

Doug Ramsey, LCORX portfolio manager, is cited today (but not quoted directly) as part of a daily market recap by Bloomberg Media. (subscription required)
“To Doug Ramsey at Leuthold, another 10% gain in the S&P 500 isn't out of the question, at least statistically. He analyzed 80 years of data on bull-market rallies, focusing on those that happened when unemployment was this low and the economic cycle this mature. If the current rally meets the prior records for length and height, the S&P 500 would end the year at 5,705.”
Sounds somewhat at odds with Leuthold’s take on the markets six months ago as capsulized by @David_Snowball in his November 2023 MFO Commentary :
”Leuthold: the lights have all turned red, time to lighten up on stocks“
Possibly Mr. Ramsey feels the lights have now turned from red to orange (proceed with caution)?
Or perhaps his reference is meant merely to reflect the irrationality of today’s market participants?
Or, more likely, Ramsey’s assessment may be intended only to characterize near term market sentiment and does not represent some fundamental change in Leuthold's longer term outlook.
Interesting nonetheless …

Positive vibes on this fund is for a couple reasons. Long term record going back 30 years with same strat is outstanding vs sp500. Up/ downside not even close. Very experienced fund MGMT, not just one star manager. Doesn't hold any of the glamour tech stocks
Negative vibes are doesn't hold any of the glamour stocks. Concentrated. Hope they don't get stuck so to speak in large positions ala AKREX.
Still my largest position but watching it like a hawk.
Best regards
Baseball fan

Thanks @hank. Amazingly, the statistics for these 2 funds are so close over the past 4 years (shown below from portfolio visualizer). You wouldn't know one invested in stocks and the other in ETFs. I hold LCR now, just because it's easier to buy ETFs on dips. At least in my mind. I intend to work the fund up to 5% of my portfolio. Once I do, I may convert to LCORX, or not. Based on the numbers it probably doesn't matter much.
ticker CAGR STD bestY worstY Sharpe Sortino
LCORX 7.34% 10.64% 15.2% -6.8% 0.52 0.78
LCR 7.23% 10.57% 13.8% -7.6% 0.51 0.79

If I had turned down all but 4-5% of the most attractive investments (or dates) in my lifetime I would have no nest egg today and I’d still be trolling dating sites instead of being married for 58 years. Sometimes it pays to accept some risk and the reality that some bets don’t pay off. The joke seems to be on the person who thinks he/she is as attractive as the top 5% of the datable market.

During the Covid lockdown, my wife received a letter from an IL Dept saying that an unemployment claim had been filed for her. Considering that she had been "retired" for several years, we found this strange. I called the number provided in the letter but it said to leave a message and somebody will call back.
SEVERAL DAYS later, somebody did call back. We were told that there was an ATTEMPT to file a fraudulent claim that was flagged and that's what prompted the initial letter. But they won't provide any other details - who filed, from what job, etc. We were told NOT to worry, except to watch for any unusual credit report activities. STRANGELY, we were also told that the IL system would keep generating some related follow up letter(s) that couldn't be cancelled, but to just ignore it. Thankfully, nothing unusual showed up on her credit reports.
We subscribe to free Credit Karma, as well as some additional free monitoring provided because of some other breaches in the news.
What concerns me in the OP is that the SBA loan was processed and proceeds sent so someone not @catch22.

How far does $1M go in to NYC (Manhattan)? Not very. A $50K salary elsewhere would need to be $150K in NYC. Use this Calculator (linked below) to compare costs to where you live now.
cost-of-living/index

Doesn't that figure really depend on where "elsewhere" is? Even Boise, Idaho would cost over 25% more than your base $50K, using the CNN calculator.
And for that matter it also matters where "here" is - Manhattan's population is less than 20% of NYC's; Manhattan's land area is under 8% of NYC's.
According to the same calculator, one would need "only" $87K to live in Queens (another part of NYC) - where 40% more people live than in Manhattan. While that's far from inexpensive, it helps to look at where "real" people live. Queens has the reputation of being NYC's bedroom borough.

Also welcome to extremes..some have...many have not. 25% are millionaire and 20% are below the poverty line.
...
cost-of-living-calculator/city-life/new-york-manhattan-ny

This NerdWallet site is similarly confused about NYC. The URL and the drop down city selector say "Manhattan", and its top line figure, "median salary in New York (Manhattan), NY is:$51,270. Yet in the detail data, it gives the population as 8M (all of NYC) and the average salary per person as $31,417. Hard to tell what "average" means, though I'm guessing it is calculated across the whole city, not just the 1/5 of people living in Manhattan.
Here are some "alternative facts". Directly from the US Census Bureau, the per capita income in NYC (8M people) is $48,066. Since not everyone works, that makes the mean (not median) salary higher than $48K. Another page (SmartAsset) claims that "According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2020 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, the average individual income in New York City is $107,000."
The level of poverty in NYC is not good, though it is lower than cities such as Detroit, Laredo, Cincinnati, Memphis, Baton Rouge (all above 25%), Richmond, Miami, Tuscon, Atlanta, Dallas, Columbus (all above 20%). The whole country needs to do better.
100 largest US cities ranked by poverty level (sourced from US Census Bureau)
US metro areas w/highest and lowest poverty rates - Madison Trust Co. analysis of Census Bureau data - percentage of households w/income under $35K (noting that HHS defines poverty line as $30K income).
That last source gives Albany, GA as the 6th poorest metropolitan area. I mention this because that is the baseline area used by CNN/Money (see above) for how far $50K would go in other areas.

Well, NY has about 4% millionaires, but it is still behind Tel Aviv which has about 10%.
https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/economy/1663172527-israel-nearly-1-in-10-tel-aviv-residents-is-a-millionaire-study

FD makes a different apples-to-oranges error. Consistent source (Henley and Partners) cited, but different years. The i24 News piece references the 2022 study which reported 42,400 millionaires in Tel Aviv (detailed data is in Middle East top 5), while the current study reports "only" 24,300. Over a 40% decline.
https://www.henleyglobal.com/publications/wealthiest-cities-2024

The most important is the total performance and for many the risk-adjusted performance. I can generate an income very easily.
Suppose you are at Fidelity and you have one million invested in FXAIX(SP500). You can set up in 2 minutes a monthly sell order, on a certain date, for $3K(or another amount) to go on for months-years until you stop it. You just created an income monthly stream.
Basically, a fund that generates double the income of the SP500 but lags by 1% annually is still inferior. It is just a math exercise that the income crowd refuses to admit.
Income VS TR(total return) is one of the oldest discussions that have led the income crowd to miss a lot of performance since 2010.
I'm not against income, I'm against people who go blindly after income.
==========
While a low expense ratio is desirable, there are plenty of exceptions.
PRWCX in the last several decades.
PIMIX from 2010 to 2018.

@larryB Yes, and so much more. The community is a tourist destination year around.
Events of all flavors are in place, dependent upon the time of year. Including, Bonner's; reportedly the worlds largest Christmas themed store. I suspect 'hank' won't chastise me too much for stepping in with this info. And yes, the insurance company noted is from this community; and has been in business since 1868 (156 years).
Frankenmuth

Hi yugo,
I began to appreciate PVCMX as an investment when I began to compare it to other funds with similar risk profiles, similar levels of commitment (there's that word again) to investing in equities, and so on.
I wouldn't pay what he's asking for, but I can understand why others might. And I wish y'all many hours of blissful slumber. It's a factor that deserves more appreciation than it gets.
It has been a tough row to hoe for small-cap value for many years. I would compare VSMIX to other SCV funds in that regard. It seems to have been quick out of the gate in relation to changing conditions these past few years.
However, calling PVCMX a SCV fund is like calling FAGIX a LCG fund. It just bugs me for some reason.
If Cinnamond seriously considers that vapid conversation between Jerry and Elaine as a useful analogy for describing any part of his investment philosophy, well, God bless him; I don't think he got the joke.