Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The New Math Of Saving For Retirement May Boil Down To This One, Absurdly Simple Rule
    FYI: “Eventually, I’ll stop working.” Most of us think that and know it will happen, but millions of us worry whether we’re saving enough to live on once we do. We want to know: How much of my earnings should I set aside? What’s the magic number? 3%? 5%? 10%? More?
    What your financial adviser won’t tell you:
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-new-math-of-saving-for-retirement-2019-05-22/print
  • Deb Walters
    Thanks @David_Snowball for letting us know.
    As I recall, Slick joined not long following the death of her husband, more accustomed to making the big financial decisions than she. She was a quick enthusiastic learner. Always most gracious in thanking each and every one who helped in the early going. And, as the years went on, she contributed greatly to the informed civil discussion that characterizes this board. Will be sorely missed.
  • Deb Walters
    Dear friends,
    With heavy heart, I'm passing along word of the passing of Deb Walters a/k/a Slick. She'd had a long fight against cancer, with good stretches and bad. Her executor, Bill Armstrong, reports that "she went peacefully and she was reasonably comfortable."
    Deb has been a constant champion of MFO, even as the events in her life made her less visible here. She was the first person to become an ongoing subscriber to MFO with a generous monthly contribution, she conceived of using year-end challenge grants to motivate support, she herself pledged two of those challenges, and she was working hard to help me find a path toward financial sustainability for MFO. Quite beyond that, she was calm and sharp, both cheerful and a cheerleader on particularly gray days.
    While comfort in her passing is hard to find, just now, I'll close with the words of the poet Jane Kenyon.
    Let the light of late afternoon
    shine through chinks in the barn, moving
    up the bales as the sun moves down.
    Let the cricket take up chafing
    as a woman takes up her needles
    and her yarn. Let evening come.
    Let dew collect on the hoe abandoned
    in long grass. Let the stars appear
    and the moon disclose her silver horn.
    Let the fox go back to its sandy den.
    Let the wind die down. Let the shed
    go black inside. Let evening come.
    To the bottle in the ditch, to the scoop
    in the oats, to air in the lung
    let evening come.
    Let it come, as it will, and don’t
    be afraid. God does not leave us
    comfortless, so let evening come.
  • CEFs - from all angles
    https://www.financial-planning.com/news/closed-end-funds-from-all-angles
    Given the wide range of complex financial options, clients need all the help they can get. That means financial advisors may need to brush up on some asset classes that aren’t currently in the spotlight.
  • Jonathan Clement's Blog: Say No To Mo: Momentum Investment Strategies
    If you continually monitor the M*, Lipper*, etc. charts and keep shifting money away from the poorer performing funds into the better performing ones in each “category” (as a good many do), than I’d say you are a “closet momentum player” - though probably unaware of it.

    I wouldn't call that momentum investing @hank. Jumping to the hotter fund is just a good way to reduce your returns over time. Momentum investing is, as I understand it, monitoring and playing trends in a disciplined manner, having a plan to enter and a plan to leave.
    Oh, and Hussman is far from a momentum investor. He uses a bunch of stock value and economic data to predict the financial markets are doomed. Polar opposite of letting the trend be your friend.
    Good stuff from @MikeM. :)
    But allow me to attempt to explain. The fund manager who boosts returns by buying hot stocks (let’s assume “systematically”) is the real momentum player. He / she knows full well what they’re doing. The individual investor who moves money to that fund because it’s been “outperforming” its peers is the unwitting victim of the momentum strategy - thus, a “closet momentum player”. Hussman is a hard one to explain - more like a loose cannonball on the deck of a rolling ship during rough seas I’d say. (No telling where it will go or what damage may result.) However, if folks flock to HSTRX six months from now because they see a “bond fund” that’s been whipping other bond funds by 5 or 6%, they will have bought the momentum kool aid, and likely won’t realize it.
    Just MHO. But you make good points. (Folks should be aware that both Mike and I invested with Hussman once upon a time and long ago)
  • Jonathan Clement's Blog: Say No To Mo: Momentum Investment Strategies
    If you continually monitor the M*, Lipper*, etc. charts and keep shifting money away from the poorer performing funds into the better performing ones in each “category” (as a good many do), than I’d say you are a “closet momentum player” - though probably unaware of it.
    I wouldn't call that momentum investing @hank. Jumping to the hotter fund is just a good way to reduce your returns over time. Momentum investing is, as I understand it, monitoring and playing trends in a disciplined manner, having a plan to enter and a plan to leave.
    Oh, and Hussman is far from a momentum investor. He uses a bunch of stock value and economic data to predict the financial markets are doomed. Polar opposite of letting the trend be your friend.
  • 3 Reasons Assets Are Flooding Into Bond ETFs
    @Old_Skeet - Thanks for commenting. One of the main problems with bonds is that virtually all of us own them either directly or indirectly. I know I do. Bonds are everywhere. If you own a balanced or asset allocation fund you likely own a great many. There’s a reason why the balanced fund came into existence. It relates to the conventional wisdom which says that when equities decline in value bonds appreciate in value, helping to compensate for the equity losses. However, with rates now so low, bonds wouldn’t seem to have the degree of offsetting value (vs stocks) they would have had 10 or 20 years ago.
    If you are investing in bonds for “income” than you (or your fund managers) are probably not holding a lot of U.S. government paper. My initial comment pertained to the U.S. 10 year, which if held 10 years to maturity should generate about 2% per year. I suspect you’re banking on a much healthier income stream than that 2%. There are bonds that produce much more than 2% of course. However, the lower you go on the credit scale the more closely linked to the fortunes of equities those bonds become. And the less immune to carnage during a steep stock market slide they become.
    No other single investment class that I can think of so permeates the financial markets as do bonds. They affect mortgage rates and thus the affordability of housing. They affect auto loans and thus the automotive industry. They’re intrinsically linked to the dollar’s value in the foreign exchange markets which affects the prices we pay for everything from clothing and smart phones to gas and oil. And, for older investors, bond rates affect the ability to grow their assets and maintain a decent standard of living during the retirement years.
  • M*: A Contrarian Masterpiece: (DODGX)
    The linked article reads like an Ad from D&C. While the praise is well deserved, it also strikes me as the anthesis of how they’ve always operated. They place no ads as far as I can tell. Despite their size, they offer only 5 funds. And all are team managed. No star managers. No interviews on CNBC, Bloomberg and the likes. Fund reports are detailed and analytical - but far from flashy or promotional. And they trade little. Some of the latter is due to having such a large footprint in the investment community that any significant buys or sells would drive the security up or down in price. And they offer no money market fund. They’re privately owned (though they seem to shun publicity). Fees are dirt low for active management. I suspect, but don’t know, that compared to other houses their investors are more stable, probably older, and less likely to flee on a downturn. And they’re headquartered in SF - about as far away as you can get from Wall Street and the big East Coast investment houses. In short, they operate differently from most of the fund managers we’re used to hearing about.
    I can’t think of DC’s operation but that some salient lines from A Tale of Two Cities come to mind. Here Dickens describes Tellson’s of London, the most trusted financial institution of the day:
    Tellson’s Bank by Temple Bar was an old-fashioned place, even in the year one thousand seven hundred and eighty. ... Tellson’s was the triumphant perfection of inconvenience. After bursting open a door of idiotic obstinacy with a weak rattle in its throat, you fell into Tellson’s down two steps, and came to your senses in a miserable little shop, with two little counters, where the oldest of men made your cheque shake as if the wind rustled it, while they examined the signature by the dingiest of windows .... Your money came out of, or went into, wormy old wooden drawers, particles of which flew up your nose and down your throat when they were opened and shut. Your bank-notes had a musty odour, as if they were fast decomposing into rags ...”
  • TRP vs Fidelity vs Vanguard vs Schwab
    @Art,
    Fwiw. Your mileage will probably vary.
    I have been with Fido for nearly 50y and have not had or found a reason to switch. (Owning both their funds and others'.) V good c/s at our levels, which by this time are nonsmall, I suppose. (As I have written before, with some non-Fido funds, once you hit a given (nonlow) $ level, you can move to a cheaper share class at no charge or fee. This may not be just a Fido thing, though.)
    We also are with Merrill, having been w/ BoA and its predecessors for almost 50y. Again at our nonsmall level their treatment is good, zero-commish trading and responsive c/s. Rinky-dink in some respects --- their fractional cleanup settlement is lame, general account sweeping likewise, cash holdings worthless as to interest, and finally they do not permit purchase of some desirable entities. There are often other amateur-hour signs as well. Low speed to their account events, sell then buy, that sort of thing. But convenient and of course integrated w BoA.
    Some family members are w Vanguard and Schwab and are not notably happy with either, and these are not picky financial people either. I have been w E-trade and a couple other places in the past, not as slick an experience.
    The happiest relative is one who has all her moneys w a UBS guy, I believe, and gets top-tier individual treatment, breaks and discounts, sound advice, management, planning, executions, etc., also sometimes free tickets and whatnot. I do not want to know what she pays for all this and am too cheap to do that kind of thing myself.
    Other happy campers have individual indy managers, CFP types, I think.
  • TRP vs Fidelity vs Vanguard vs Schwab
    I have no familiarity with Fidelity or Vanguard other than they have some pretty good fund and ETF options. But for the most part you can get any of those options through Schwab if you wanted. Same for TRP funds. But, that probably doesn't stand out as unique to other big brokerages, like Fidelity, Vanguard and TRP.
    All my experience is with Charles Schwab where I rolled most of my 401k and pension-lump to an IRA when I left my long time employer. That was about 5 years ago. At the time I wavered keeping everything in my employer's 401k at TRP or transferring everything to an IRA at TRP or transferring to CS. I chose CS for a few reasons:
    1- maybe the biggest reason was they had a local office. I much prefer a human, 1 on 1 sit down than phone or computer contact. I ended up being linked to a very nice guy who has gained my trust. He is often just my sounding board for ideas I have. He calls or emails about every 6 months or so to check in and see how things are going. And best of all, I don't pay a dime for the advice, feedback and help! Schwab does offer many different options for paid advisory including a very low cost advisory service linked to their robo portfolio. I do have money in the robo, but at this time I haven't gone the advisor route. They also offer the standard 1% fee where they manage everything in your financial life. Not for me but maybe for some.
    2- the product selection, everything from 1000's of funds, ETFs, banking products like MMs, CDs, credit cards, checking and savings accounts, numerous managed portfolio options.
    3- the option to have multiple accounts at one place. My mind tends to like "buckets" or separating money for different purposes. A separate 3 year retirement withdrawal account with MM, CDs, treasuries that is linked to my credit union checking account is an example.
    4- the online and local learning seminars to just hear new ideas or learn different skills and options (I'm not great at it, but I like to dabble or "play" in stocks and there was plenty of info on that along with a trading platform to manage buys and sells).
    Just some personal reasons for where I ended up. At 65 I'm still working full time but will probably go part time or quit altogether soon. Good luck Art.
  • Americans Lose Trillions Claiming Social Security At The Wrong Time
    Sorry
    I removed my misquote
    From the post:
    "Fellowes said the issue isn’t a lack of financial literacy. Indeed, affluent and educated retirees are more likely to make a mistake than are poorer and less-educated ones"
    Some lack reality and say SS wont be there if they wait to retire.
    It is a personal decision that does not need Monday morning quarterbacking.
    I'll leave it at that
  • Americans Lose Trillions Claiming Social Security At The Wrong Time
    Social Security benefits are guaranteed to keep up with inflation and last for life. That’s important when half of all 65-year-old American women can expect to live past age 86, according to Social Security estimates. The average life expectancy for U.S. men who are currently 65 is age 84.
    What about the half of women who don’t live that long? The most important number no one can know for sure is his/her life expectancy. If you are not physically healthy and/or longevity doesn’t run in your family taking Social Security early makes sense. Also many people don’t have the retirement savings to time their taking of the benefit perfectly like this story suggests, yet they may still be sick of working and not want to work till age 70 before retiring. In other words, the answer to when to take the benefit is complex and this constant assumption that Americans are stupid and don’t know how to maximize their retirement by the financial services sector is getting pretty old.
  • Alger Small Cap Focus Fund partial closing to investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3521/000119312519186064/d749776d497.htm
    497 1 d749776d497.htm TAF ALGER SMALL CAP FOCUS FUND
    THE ALGER FUNDS
    Alger Small Cap Focus Fund
    July 1, 2019 Supplement to the Statutory and Summary
    Prospectuses dated March 1, 2019, as supplemented to date
    The Board of Trustees of The Alger Funds has authorized a partial closing of Alger Small Cap Focus Fund (the “Fund”), effective July 31, 2019.
    The Fund’s Class A and C Shares will be available for purchase by existing shareholders of the Fund who maintain open accounts.
    The Fund’s Class I and Z Shares will be available for purchase by existing shareholders of the Fund who maintain open accounts and investors who transact with certain broker-dealers identified by Fred Alger & Company, Incorporated, the Fund’s distributor. Please check with your financial advisor regarding the availability of Class I and Z shares of the Fund for purchase at their firm.
    In addition, the Funds Class A, C, I and Z shares will be available to new investors that utilize certain retirement record keeping platforms identified by the Fund’s distributor.
    The Fund’s Class Y Shares will remain open to all qualifying investors.
    The Fund may resume sales to all investors (or further suspend sales) at some future date if the Board of Trustees determines that doing so would be in the best interest of shareholders.
  • RiverFront Asset Allocation Income & Growth and RiverFront Asset Allocation Growth to reorganize
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834419011143/fp0043536_497.htm
    497 1 fp0043536_497.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
    RiverFront Asset Allocation Income & Growth
    RiverFront Asset Allocation Growth
    SUPPLEMENT DATED JUNE 25, 2019 TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUSES AND PROSPECTUS
    DATED FEBRUARY 28, 2019, AS SUPPLEMENTED JUNE 25, 2019, AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION DATED FEBRUARY 28, 2019, AS SUPPLEMENTED FROM TIME TO TIME
    At a meeting held on June 11-12, 2019, the Board of Trustees of Financial Investors Trust (the “Trust”) approved Agreements and Plans of Reorganization providing for the reorganization of RiverFront Asset Allocation Income & Growth and RiverFront Asset Allocation Growth, each a series of the Trust (each, a “Target Fund” and collectively, the “Target Funds”) into RiverFront Asset Allocation Moderate and RiverFront Asset Allocation Growth & Income, respectively, each a series of the Trust (each, an “Acquiring Fund”) (each, a “Reorganization” and collectively, the “Reorganizations”).
    Shareholders of each Target Fund as of the close of business on July 12, 2019 will receive more information about such Target Fund’s Reorganization in a separate information statement. The Reorganizations do not require shareholder approval and therefore no action is being requested of shareholders. The closing date of the Reorganizations is expected to be on or about August 5, 2019 (the “Closing Date”).
    As a result of the Reorganizations, shareholders of each Target Fund will become shareholders of the corresponding Acquiring Fund. Shareholders of each Target Fund will receive shares of the corresponding Acquiring Fund with an aggregate value equal to the aggregate value of their shares of the Target Fund held immediately prior to the Reorganization. After the Reorganizations are complete, the Target Funds will be liquidated and terminated. Each of the Reorganizations is expected to be a tax-free, therefore shareholders should not realize a tax gain or loss as a direct result of the Reorganization. The expenses incurred in connection with the Reorganizations will be paid by ALPS Advisors, Inc.
    Purchases with respect to the Target Funds were permitted through the close of business on June 21, 2019.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • DSENX FUND
    When you graph PSTKX ($1M minimum; PSPAX is the investor class) vs IVV over periods shorter than the last 8-9y, the added value from the bond sauce sure looks tiny, sometime nonexistent, and also sometimes worsening rather than buffering dips and volatility.
    I wonder what its appeal is, really, when one would probably do better holding IVV and PONAX.
    Rather than getting deep in the weeds of the magic mechanisms and contents of these funds, I find it easier just to be empirical and look at performance: consistent tracking of SP500, plus sauce. Same as seeing Fido means a share swap is not a buy. Fascinating explanation from Parsec, @msf, thanks --- technically true, but essentially something else. Love it. Editing financial and other lawyers, and their legalese and lay translations of same, has always been among the funner parts of my career work.
  • New highs and all I read are negative articles
    IMHO The central banks, notably ECB and the U.S. Federal Reserve, have changed the playing field. We’ve gone in a few short months from a policy of interest rate “normalization” (Fed euphemism for raising rates) to “sustaining the expansion” (Fed speak for flooding the markets with easy money). Sudden shifts like this are uncommon. Many market timers were caught off guard. In my 50 years investing I can’t think of more than a half dozen or so such sudden and consequential changes in the playing field. The tight money policies of Paul Volker were one. The financial collapse of late 2007 was another.
    The eventual success of / consequences of the recent shift in policy are uncertain. Short term it seems to have inflated most risk assets. The downside if the policy “succeeds” may well be a weaker dollar and higher prices for goods and services in coming years. The turmoil Wednesday’s policy statement precipitated points, I think, to the importance of staying diversified and sticking to a plan rather than trying to outguess the markets.
  • Junk bonds at all time highs - S@P next?
    Glad I never subscribed to the “Sell in May ... Go Away“ method of investing.
    Looks like Ted linked a thread on that topic a month ago. Appears there were no responses from the board. https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/49979/what-to-throw-away-in-may
    The article is from Forbes and is titled : “What to Throw Away in May.”
    A few snippets from the linked column follow:
    - if the first half of May’s decline “gets legs” and is more a beginning than an end, don’t count on finding too many stock market areas that buck the downtrend. Utilities, REITs, and Consumer Staples stocks are typical outperformers when the market’s first knee-jerk reaction occurs. But as declines deepen, these tend to be treated not as conservative ways to still own stocks, but as part of the club…a club that is out of favor.
    - Gold and gold stocks, like Utilities and REITs, probably feel good for a little while amid the equity market carnage. But my chart work shows me that the upside is likely limited.
    - “Credit” Bonds – to paraphrase a famous movie line…I see dead asset classes. I have written to you for some time about my deep concerns for investors who have been “chasing yield” the past several years, trying to make up for paltry income returns from CDs, T-bills and Money Market Funds. This happens in every cycle, and it is happening again. High Yield Bonds, Convertibles, Bank Loan Funds, Closed-End Bond Funds (which are typically full of leverage) are all flirting with trouble right now.
    - U. S. Treasury Securities / This is a tool for traders and investment managers, but I fear that too many investors and financial advisors have shoved long-term bonds into portfolios to boost the yield, but are not considering how much risk they are taking if they view it as a “buy and hold” position.
  • Here Comes A New $160 Billion Asset Manager: Sun Life
    FYI: Insurer Sun Life Financial has created an independent business, bringing together its affiliated asset management firms and the investment capabilities of its general account under a new brand called SLC Management.
    This launch caps off six years of work. In 2012, Sun Life started building an asset management business to offer outside clients the strategies it uses for its own portfolio, such as commercial mortgages, liability-driven investing, and real estate.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1fx5y3rzwtmp2/Here-Comes-a-New-160-Billion-Asset-Manager
  • Which Annuities Offer The Best Inflation Protection?
    --- Inflation rate
    A common measure of inflation in the U.S. is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). From 1925 through 2018 the CPI has a long-term average of 2.9% annually. Over the last 40 years highest CPI recorded was 13.5% in 1980. For 2018, the last full year available, the CPI was 2.2% annually as reported by the Minneapolis Federal Reserve.
    --- Rate of return
    This is the annually compounded rate of return you expect from your investments before taxes. The actual rate of return is largely dependent on the types of investments you select. The Standard & Poor's 500® (S&P 500®) for the 10 years ending December 31st 2018, had an annual compounded rate of return of 12.1%, including reinvestment of dividends. From January 1, 1970 to December 31st 2018, the average annual compounded rate of return for the S&P 500®, including reinvestment of dividends, was approximately 10.2% (source: www.standardandpoors.com). Since 1970, the highest 12-month return was 61% (June 1982 through June 1983). The lowest 12-month return was -43% (March 2008 to March 2009).
    Hi @hank
    I don't underestimate or have a blind eye to inflation. B.O.L. CPI is a bit twisted with what is used for calculations.
    I don't allow the data in the above 2 displays to cause me to think that things won't change.
    Hell, I/we still keep a paper ledger for all expenses by category; a habit I've had since 1970.
    As I've stated here numerous times........this time is different. And so it remains, seeking a financial path since the market melt.
    Too tired to think or write more tonight.
    Good night.
    Catch
  • Calpers’ Dilemma: Save The World Or Make Money?
    You're already underfunded. Make money. There is a fiduciary responsibility to the participants. It's immoral to mortgage the future financial well-being of others.