market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024 "I don't need to mention the whole thing each time."
I've never seen you "mention the whole thing."
You stated "diversification is a protection against ignorance" omitting everything else.
"It is not ridiculous to compare every stock fund to the SP500 or VTI which is the standard and most held."
Regardless of your thoughts on this subject, it doesn't make much sense to benchmark certain funds
(e.g., small-cap value, EM equity, small-cap foreign, etc.) against the S&P 500.
"Your portfolio lags and why you don't agree."
Your statement is presumptuous since you don't know how my portfolio is constructed.
BTW, I agree that S&P 500 index funds are good investment vehicles.
"Since 2010, I have posted on several sites why LC tilting growth (SP500 is an easy choice) is where you want to be."
I've witnessed the following over the past 5 years or so.
You stipulated investors should have just owned an S&P 500 index fund or QQQ over the past xx years.
Looking in the investment rear-view mirror, this "analysis" is not very insightful or beneficial.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results...
This pablum included in numerous corresponding posts, frankly, is rather tiresome.
"And why a manager is as good as his/her last 6-12 months? this is how you avoid funds that lag for years and what I have done now since 2000."
As was mentioned previously, even the very best active fund managers will suffer bouts of underperformance. How did you determine 6 - 12 months is an appropriate evaluation period?
market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024 I d
Investing in SC or anywhere else is your choice.
When someone lags the most famous index in the world, the SP500, they pull out the DIVERSIFICATION card.
Buffett said the following: "Diversification is a protection against ignorance".
[snip]
A fund manager is good as his last 6-12 months of performance.
[snip]
There you go again - quoting Buffett out of context!
Warren Buffett talking to MBA students:
"If you are not a professional investor; if your goal is not to manage in such a way that you
get a significantly better return than the world, then I believe in extreme diversification.
I believe that 98 or 99 percent —maybe more than 99 percent—
of people who invest should extensively diversify and not trade.
That leads them to an index fund with very low costs.
All they’re going to do is own a part of America.
They’ve made a decision that owning a part of America is worthwhile.
I don’t quarrel with that at all. That is the way they should approach it."financinglife.org/learn-how-to-invest/warren-buffett-on-diversification/S&P 500 index funds have proven to be good long-term investments.
However, it's ridiculous to benchmark all funds against the S&P 500 regardless of investment styles
and objectives. It's interesting when someone who invests in a way which is diametrically opposed
to Mr. Buffett's approach periodically "quotes" Buffett nonetheless.
I strongly disagree that
"A fund manager is good as his last 6-12 months of performance."Even the very best fund managers will underperform from time to time.
Should investors move in/out of funds based on short-term performance?
These actions often lead to excessive trading and inferior returns¹.
Numerous studies have indicated frequent trading is hazardous to one's wealth.
¹ Skilled traders can generate excellent returns. They are few and far in between.
I don't need to mention the whole thing each time. I have said hundreds of times seen that that Buffet said "Diversification is a protection against ignorance" and his second choice is the SP500.
It is not ridiculous to compare every stock fund to the SP500 or VTI which is the standard and most held.
Your portfolio lags and why you don't agree.Since 2010, I have posted on several sites why LC tilting growth (SP500 is an easy choice) is where you want to be. Every year you hear from many experts and posters why not EM, SC, value? valuation is great...and almost every year their portfolio lags.
And why a manager is as good as his/her last 6-12 months? this is how you avoid funds that lag for
years and what I have done now since 2000.
Fidelity Rewards Signature Card? Regardless of mileage, engine oil should probably be changed at least once per year.
Can I change oil every two
years?
"No. Almost no automaker recommends that oil should be left in the crankcase for more than one year—no matter the mileage."
https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a26590646/how-often-to-change-oil/"It’s not just about miles: If you don’t drive your car a lot, your oil still needs to be kept fresh. Even if you drive fewer miles each year than your automaker suggests for changing the oil (say, 6,000 miles, with suggested oil-change intervals at 7,500 miles), you should still be getting that oil changed twice a year.
Why? Oil becomes less effective as it ages, and by not getting the engine warm enough, excess moisture that forms in the engine will not be removed, which can lead to shorter engine life."
https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-maintenance/things-to-know-about-oil-changes-for-your-car-a9532249359/
Fidelity Rewards Signature Card? @msf, I do not travel or drive much, even when I was working, though my job allowed one to live on planes. I drive so little that I have not changed oil in my car in 5
years. I bought a few plane tickets on the Costco Citi card in the past year. I misspoke about 5%; it was 4%; I have to carry the Costco Citi card as it works as a Costco membership card. I forgot which cards dropped CDW coverage; hopefully I will remember to check next time I need it but my car insurance covers CDW on rentals. I try not to use more than 2 CC of my own in a month as I am asked to manage other family members’ affairs.
Fidelity Rewards Signature Card? About a dozen years ago I had heard on the "Clark Howard" radio show that he thought the fidelity card was one of the best as you could have the 2% reward points automatically deposited into you fidelity roth ira. So that is what I have doing since then. Very happy with the results.
Applaud Good Service from service Reps Vanguard dropped personal reps (for those not paying for PAS)
years ago. Here's a 2021 Bogleheads thread discussing this.
There may be the oddball Flagship customer or two (see "Gill" in the thread) who continues to have a personal rep for unknown reasons. But generally the free service is long gone.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=363122
Capital Group (American Funds parent) getting into PE Capital and KKR are planning a series of hybrid funds that will invest in both publicly and privately traded assets. The first two strategies, expected to launch next year, will hold about 60% in public bonds picked by Capital managers, and 40% in direct and asset-based loans sourced by KKR.
These are likely the asset allocation or balanced funds. Really have to monitor these funds as they evolve.
TRP has a global allocation fund with 10% in private equity, and the fund is very average in performance for a number of years.
Description reads like a credit fund and not a hybrid allocation fund. May be the hybrid is public- private credit hybrid?
Capital Group (American Funds parent) getting into PE Capital and KKR are planning a series of hybrid funds that will invest in both publicly and privately traded assets. The first two strategies, expected to launch next year, will hold about 60% in public bonds picked by Capital managers, and 40% in direct and asset-based loans sourced by KKR.
These are likely the asset allocation or balanced funds. Really have to monitor these funds as they evolve.
TRP has a global allocation fund with 10% in private equity, and the fund is very average in performance for a number of years.
Yup. I didn't like the (then) 10-15% Blackstone Black Box they were promoting in RPGAX. I was interested in the fund to compliment PRWCX but I like knowing what I own!
Capital Group (American Funds parent) getting into PE Capital and KKR are planning a series of hybrid funds that will invest in both publicly and privately traded assets. The first two strategies, expected to launch next year, will hold about 60% in public bonds picked by Capital managers, and 40% in direct and asset-based loans sourced by KKR.
These are likely the asset allocation or balanced funds. Really have to monitor these funds as they evolve.
TRP has a global allocation fund with 10% in private equity, and the fund is very average in performance for a number of
years.
market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024 PVCMX made about half of the SP500 for 5 years, so it's not alright. :-)
Good established funds don't guarantee anything either, remember that over long time the SP500 beats most funds because it's formula is very efficient.
So are you mainly invested in a S&P 500 index fund then?
market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024 PVCMX made about half of the SP500 for 5 years, so it's not alright. :-)
Good established funds don't guarantee anything either, remember that over long time the SP500 beats most funds because it's formula is very efficient.
welcome to the discussion a/k/a help board for MFO's premium tools A very old thread!
But I will ask a question here.
Ulcer Index (UI by
Martin) is prominently featured and often discussed at MFO; there was even a feature on it in the monthly MFO by
@David_Snowball in May 2023. The typical definition of UI is over 14 days [e.g. StockCharts UI(14), Yahoo Finance Ulcer(14)]. Although
MFO Definitions don't indicate the time period, I assume that it's also 14 days. So, it just indicates the most recent drawdown behavior and shouldn't really be compared with other longer period parameters SD, Sharpe Ratio, etc (typically over 3, 5, 10, 15
years).
There is a related UPI that is a variation of Sharpe Ratio but its definitions vary - from just 14-days to averaging UI over longer periods.
Applaud Good Service from service Reps Apple. One of the biggest reasons why I’m a huge Apple fan is their customer service. Their staff in stores are friendly, helpful and knowledgeable. Over the years, I have sought assistance many times through the Apple help line by telephone, and they have unfailingly helped me solve whatever problems I’m having— at no cost. Their telephone service representatives are knowledgeable and friendly.
market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024 Investing in SC or anywhere else is your choice.
When someone lags the most famous index in the world, the SP500, they pull out the DIVERSIFICATION card.
Buffett said the following: "Diversification is a protection against ignorance". His second best idea is using the SP500.
But, as you know, it does not always work, during 2000-10 the SP500 lost money for 10
years...and this is when you should when to hold them and when to fold them (
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hx4gdlfamo)
Mr C. is not alone, in 2008-9 Arnott with PAUIX looked like a hero and was interviewed everywhere claiming he got the secret formula for VALUATION. I bought PAUIX + the Intrepid fund managed by C.
I sold both within months because valuation isn't an accurate indicator, never was, never will be...and markets can be irrational for a lot longer than you think. A fund manager is good as his last 6-12 months of performance.
Many great experts made the same mistake, read (
https://fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/13/wall-shame-worse-experts-predictions).