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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Econ conditions & hard-landing inflation again in detail; was other stuff, insurance bundling ....
    We have excellent insurance and credit rating. 2 cars ,home and umbrella is what we have. Was with Metropolitan for 20 years with multiple discounts. For curiosity got multiple quotes 7 years ago. Erie came out on top and always cheaper than Amica, State Farm, Allstate , Liberty Mutual, when checking yearly since then. Have been satisfied with Erie but they have stricter underwriting than the big guys as noted above.
  • Econ conditions & hard-landing inflation again in detail; was other stuff, insurance bundling ....
    Heard a bit about AMICA for insurance. Comments?
    Amica has been rated by Consumer Report as the best insurance for decades now. I tried them several times. We have 3 insurance products auto, home, and umbrella and I need one company to handle all of them.
    We had State Farm for 10+ years but they wanted to triple our auto insurance when the kids started to drive. I changed to Liberty for "only" 50% increase. My kids had several accidents and 3 totals, and Liberty was great. Liberty raised my auto insurance only once for 6 months. Every 3-5 years my agent was able to keep it low by writing a new auto policy, but Liberty got rid of the local agents and I had to fight myself.
    Earlier this year, Liberty wanted to increase our auto insurance by 50%, after about 20 years I changed to Allstate at only a 20% increase.
    Every time I called Amica, they could match only the Umbrella(which is the simplest) but not the auto + home insurance (at least double +).
  • Barron's on Funds & Retirement, 11/18/23
    A deductible is the amount you have to pay before any insurance kicks in. The highest deductible a Part D plan is allowed to have is $545; some may have lower deductibles.
    https://www.medicare.gov/drug-coverage-part-d/costs-for-medicare-drug-coverage/yearly-deductible-for-drug-plans
    After you pay the deductible, then you are charged copay (fixed dollar amount) or coinsurance (percentage of the negotiated cost). This is called the "initial phase". Once you've paid $5030 for drugs (including the deductible) you enter the "gap coverage phase" aka the "donut hole".
    https://www.medicare.gov/drug-coverage-part-d/costs-for-medicare-drug-coverage/copaymentcoinsurance-in-drug-plans
    These are all 2024 figures. 2023 figures are a bit lower.
    Here's an inexpensive (50¢/mo premium) Part D plan in Honolulu. It has a $545 deductible; after that it charges 50% for non-preferred brand name drugs. Assuming you've met your deductible, then for a non-preferred brand name drug that cost $800, you'd pay $400 and the insurer would pay the rest.
    Wellcare Value Script S4802-164-0
    Another plan might have a $100/mo copay for non-preferred brand name drugs. In such a plan, once you met the deductible, you'd pay $300 for a 90 day supply of the drug.
    Is this extortion? That's an economic, a business, and a political question. If you have investments in pharmaceutical companies, you are getting some benefit from this system. Not nearly as much as it is costing you on the consumer side, but this is the system that was set up in 2003.
    In a poll taken in the week that President Bush signed the new Medicare law, 47 percent of senior citizens opposed the changes, and only 26 percent voiced their approval. Among people of all ages who said they were closely following the Medicare debate, 56 percent said they disapproved of the legislation, and 39 percent supported it (ABC News/Washington Post Poll 2003).
    ...
    Pharmaceutical manufacturers could now expect a higher demand from their best customers, and they prevailed on all three of their priority issues: no direct administration of benefits by the federal government, no explicit cost control measures, and no legalization of drug reimportation.
    A Political History of Medicare and Prescription Drug Coverage, 2004.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2690175/
    Only now, 20 years later, are we beginning to see changes. The $2K out of pocket cap doesn't become effective until 2025.
    image
    https://www.kff.org/medicare/issue-brief/how-will-the-prescription-drug-provisions-in-the-inflation-reduction-act-affect-medicare-beneficiaries/
  • Econ conditions & hard-landing inflation again in detail; was other stuff, insurance bundling ....
    Definitely need to look at the financial strength of the insurance company you go with....what is also whacked is that the insurance business is something like your cable company...the newer customers get the best deals (or so it seems?) You'd have to be naive that someone like me who has been with State Farm for over 46 years..you think they don't have algo's that know exactly how much they can raise me every year and I won't shop them/leave? They tell me I am grandfathered in with my type of coverage and wouldn't get the same policy if I started new with them today. Also as I own 3 homes in different states and 4 automobiles with a rather large umbrella policy, I do like that they have national representation/coverage. Always, always great service with State Farm.
    What I don't like is all the monies being spent on the sport ballers/commercials.
    What I do recommend, go to a high end body shop and ask the owner of what insurance company provides the best service, doesn't always push for offshore crap part replacement, pays right away etc, sometimes lowest price is not best value. The body shop in my major metro area that works on all the Ferrari's Porsche's etc..told me the best insurance companies were State Farm, Chubb and Amica. Chubb is for ballers/very high worth folks, not for the common folk...
    BTW, even more off topic...the guys who work there get to drive all the high end cars...best all time next level I am told is a 2005 Ford GT...blows everything else out of the water...
    My wife's ex boss who retired as a very high level executive for a Fortune 500 company always shopped for insurance every year and went with the top rated/lowest quotes every year...he prolly saved a bunch of money doing that...insurance companies must know that human nature has inertia built into it and take advantage.
    I do think I'm going to get a quote from Erie just out of curiousity...
    Best Regards,
    Baseball Fan
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Sold my 3 stocks yesterday. Too damned much volatility for this OF. Dumped the money into Franklin’s new conservative / moderate risk multi-asset ETF - INCM. .38% ER. Untested. But the 3 person team running it has had pretty good success operating FKIQX for several years.
  • Econ conditions & hard-landing inflation again in detail; was other stuff, insurance bundling ....
    Yeah. It’s a state by state issue. I like my local insurance agent with 5-day a week walk in or call service. Took great care of me after a big truck rear ended my rented car in Florida 10 years ago. (“No-fault” state). I never add the optional rental insurance. Was glad they stepped in and covered the full cost of the car which was totaled. If you wreck a rental, the company really inflates that “cost” thru various gimmicks.
    I was in the office with her as we walked through the various deductibles & savings. Struck a happy medium. Helped in my case. The ‘18 hybrid has higher rates due in large measure to: (1) being more expensive to repair and (2) higher incidence of pedestrian related deaths / injuries due to how quiet they are at low speeds. Goodness. Electric cars must have the same problem.
  • Econ conditions & hard-landing inflation again in detail; was other stuff, insurance bundling ....
    I increased auto deductible to reduce premium at the last big increase.
    I went from $1,000 to $2500 collision deductible to save when bought my last new car in 2018. The agent seemed to think that’s high.
    @Devo said “Cumulative inflation”. That’s how I look at it too. Similar to how interest compounds year to year. Didn’t Einstein call compound interest the 8th wonder of the world?
    I don’t want to pee rain on anybody’s parade. Views differ on this. @msf has documented very well the actual inflation rate based on the CPI index and has explained in past threads how that index is maintained / calculated. I wouldn’t argue with him.
    I think we do tend to react more to increases on prices of items we buy more than we do to reduced prices on what we buy. From what I hear there’s a glut of chicken & pork right now. Prices are down from a year ago. On the other hand, what in #@*# has happened to the cost of a bag of coffee? As an occasional scotch drinker, I’ve noticed that prices have remained very stable in my state for the past 5+ years. A bottle of JWB can still be had here for under $40, where it’s been for most of the past decade. Maybe drink more scotch and less coffee?
  • Econ conditions & hard-landing inflation again in detail; was other stuff, insurance bundling ....
    I am keen to have this lived experience and see how it works out over the next few years. Cummulative inflation has been huge, money has been debased by 20% and we are talking about fed rate cuts. Lots to learn.
  • Amazon to sell cars in 2024 starting with Hyundai
    @hank : I have to ask , did you get your toilet at amazon ?
    @Derf - You remember the toilet saga from about 2 years ago? Yes, after 2 arrived smashed up in boxes (one from Amazon and one from Lowe’s I drove to an area dealer and picked up an unbroken one. Amazon told me not to return theirs, but refunded the money. The UPS driver detected the sound of broken glass on the one from Lowe’s and returned it.
    @WABC - Yes. Have had good luck with EBay.
  • From the halls at Schwab
    @Baseball_Fan - Yep. Saw a bunch go over my home after dark 2-3 years ago. Just stunning. Never seen anything like it. That’s usually a day or two after launch when they’re relatively low and bunched together. Over time they disperse and, I believe, get higher up. Kripes - He sends up 60 or more at a time. Glad you got to see them.
    Lots of images on the internet. I’ve linked an especially brilliant one filmed over India. There’s also a thread running in the OT section on “Starship”, Musk’s latest technological amusement.

    Also - How to Buy SpaceX Stock
  • Amazon to sell cars in 2024 starting with Hyundai
    @hank, next time, give ebay a shot.
    Easier to read. Better user-protection. I don't work for ebay. And I have no idea if I own any of their stock. Just been shopping with them for years trouble-free.
  • From the halls at Schwab
    @Derf. Earliest now would be 8 AM Saturday. CNN and others should carry it. Or find a site on the web. (Postponed from Friday.)
    ”Update for 3 pm ET: SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says the second Starship launch is postponed to no earlier than Saturday, Nov. 18 to replace a grid fin actuator on the launch stack, according to an update Musk posted on X, formerly Twitter. It's been nearly seven months since SpaceX's first Starship megarocket exploded in a brilliant fireball over South Texas in a failed launch test, but the company is ready to try again. If you're hoping to watch SpaceX's second Starship test flight, you'll need to know when to tune in, and for that, we've got you covered.
    SpaceX's second Starship and Super Heavy booster test flight is currently scheduled to launch from the company's Starbase site near Boca Chica, Texas no earlier than Saturday, Nov. 18, at 8 a.m. EST (1300 GMT). It will be 7 a.m. local time at liftoff time. The launch was originally set for Nov. 17, but SpaceX delayed it by 24 hours to replace a grid fin actuator on the launch stack.”

    https://www.space.com/spacex-second-starship-launch-what-time
    @Derf - Apologies if I misunderstood your post. I thought you were seeking opinions on the fixed income matter and just tossed out what I’ve been taking in. Not surprised Schwab feels that way. It’s a pretty common theme now and the uptick in rates has been astounding the past 2 years, Thanks for clarifying that.
  • Amazon to sell cars in 2024 starting with Hyundai
    10-15 years ago that would have been heartening to hear. These days I try to stay as far away as I can from Amazon. But I digress. Somebody can start an OT thread if so inclined on the subject.
    Thanks for the story. No problem. Most of us own Amazon through 1 fund or another.
  • High Yearend Distributions
    @Observant1 mentioned this high CG distribution earlier - JPEAX, JPECX, JPDEX, JPELX (AUM $853 million)
    How can things go so wrong in a "Tax Aware" fund? Of course, heavy redemptions and/or manager incompetence.
    JPM is also mad and is just shutting down the fund, TwitterLINK
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1217286/000119312523277672/d372772d497.htm
    Edit/Add. Looking at fund data for JPDEX from Fido and M*, this Fund has been in redemption for years, and has distributed large CGs before. So, the question is, what took JPM so long to kill it?
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/view-all/4812A1654
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/jpdex/performance
  • The BOND KING says
    The why (Y) question. I had plenty when I started my Plumbing apprenticeship many years ago. As for starting to shave in the same spot, I don't fit the question.
    Why, Derf
  • Small Caps
    I also own NEAGX/NEAIX for SCG coverage. ER is high, especially for retail shares. Otherwise, no reservations. SCV is a head-scratcher. CALF has a lot going for it and Pacer Funds, which include COWZ, are exemplary in explaining their free-cashflow methodology. DSMC has a similar approach but with a screen to weed out companies that carry too much debt, a concern for SCs when interest rates are high. DSMC does not have as long a track record as CALF, but I've overlooked that factor in my personal choice. AVUV holds too many positions for my money.
    I like the funds following the cash these days. I'll add DSMC to my watch list, for as long as it might last at M*. But I generally like to see the thesis in action for at least five years in this up-and-down era.
    People can checkout DSMC's overlaps here. It's not what I expected.
    After years of bloated Vanguard indexes, I get what you're saying about too many holdings.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (11/12/23)
    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:16 The Tremendous Two (Apple & Microsoft)
    03:35 The Fantastic Four (Apple, Microsoft, Google & Amazon)
    06:41 The Enormous Eight (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Netflix, Tesla, Meta, & Nvidia)
    12:16 2023: The Inverse of 2022
    14:56 Rising Debt/Delinquencies (Credit Cards, Auto Loans)
    19:07 Next Inflation Report: Likely to Decline
    21:51 Higher Real Central Bank Rates (Today vs. 2 years ago)
    25:37 Spending on Experiences (Concerts, Travel)
    27:38 Is Housing Supply Starting to Normalize?
    30:41 From $47 billion to $0 (WeWork)
    32:40 Outpacing Inflation With I Bonds (updated rates)
    Video
    Blog
  • Small Caps
    @Investor Your last sentence, " In investing, perfection is the enemy of good enough returns. " What would you consider, good enough return, 5% , 10% & in what time space ? I'm sure age of investor would have something to be considered.
    Thanks for your time, Derf
    It is hard to pin a absolute value for the good returns. For different decades there has been different good returns. Sometimes 1% is a good return for a decade and 20% is a bad return for another.
    If you look very long periods say rolling 15-20 years, good returns have been around 7-9% range which include multiple crashes and booms. If your time horizon is not that long or you cannot accept the volatility of such long periods, then good returns associated with reduced portfolio risk will also be less.
  • TIAA outage
    ”Current account values are unavailable.”
    Not affected directly. But most interesting. I assume the problem involves simply pulling up the correct prices or NAVs for whatever you invest in? Similar to what sometimes happens with portfolio trackers?
    It it meant you were completely unable to view account holdings, that would be much more serious. Yikes - that could precipitate #@&#!
    (That computer lingo looks a lot like what appeared on one of my devices after one of its apps was hacked couple years ago.)
  • Small Caps
    What happens in 10 or 15 years?
    I like smalls, and always hold some. I wish I had owned FMIMX all that time. But it always looked so boring. M* calls it a mid-cap, but it's currently 67% small. I own some now, and I expect to buy more in the future.
    I own RWJ, and I am looking at CALF. Both are on the lower end of the debt/equity ratio, as is FMIMX for that matter.
    Keep in mind that any etf based on the S&P 400 will tick the small cap box for M*. In that space I own XMHQ. It also has a low D/E ratio, as do most things on my shopping list. Seems to me that the current environment encourages an eye on debt exposure.
    I am keeping an eye on GRPM to see how Invesco's GARP strategy works in that space. Until recently it was an equal-weight 400 fund. I have been pleased with SPGP, which has a longer track record, but in the 500.
    Buy now, or wait? I might do some early shopping in the taxable, but mostly I think I'll wait till the budget mess is settled.