Thanks for making me aware of TCIFX! Giroux is equity and Shuggi is an equity quant and allocation guy...
[snip]

Jeff Ptak from M* asked David Giroux: "With the benefit of hindsight, what do you think you might have urged your younger self to do and conversely, warn the younger you to refrain from doing, given all that you’ve learned along the way?"
David Giroux's partial response:
"Second, I think I would tell myself to work more closely with the quantitative resources at T. Rowe earlier in my career. I really didn’t do anything on that front really until late ‘09. I joke with people internally. There was a BFS era, before Farris Shuggi, and AFS, after Farris Shuggi, period at CAF. I’ve worked very, very closely with Farris Shuggi and the rest of the quant team at T. Rowe on so many proprietary projects over the last 14 years that have really meaningfully, positively contributed to CAF’s performance. Honestly, it changed the way I managed CAF for the better over time."
https://www.morningstar.com/podcasts/the-long-view/2fc42364-3773-4020-94f4-02d6b1f4e551

10-15 year time frame? But thinking of making what amounts to a tactical decision? If you have a long range plan in place you shouldn’t have to make this type of decision. Rather, you’d be considering rebalancing and possibly adding to beaten-up small caps - or perhaps slightly overweighting those that you already own.
To quibble a bit, I consider 10-15 years intermediate term , but not long term (20-30 years). To wit - it’s largely a matter of semantics. There’s been some discussion of small caps on the board. I’ll try to link something. Truth is - it all depends on the economy and the direction of interest rates. If rates continue to decline small caps should benefit as they need easy access to the borrowing trough and tend to borrow at higher rates.
I’d have about 3-5% of my money tilted toward small caps myself. The thing is - When they jump … it’s often by a lot. So, if you feel like gambling, throw a little that way and let it ride. But check what you already own and make sure you’re not already exposed to the sector through some existing funds.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/61579/it-s-almost-time-to-buy-small-caps#latest

Is it too early for a long term (10-15 yrs) investor to reallocate to small caps? The SCG landscape has been beaten down and some of the most reputable MF/ETFs have fallen to the middle of the pack (performance-wise). I've owned BCSIX for over 10 years and looking back, glad I took profits when I rebalanced (several times). Also, own PRNHX and the recent 3 yrs has been tough due to the Fund's aggressive nature.
Any MF/ETF's that you are considering or own?

Nov 10 Episode

James Grant, Founder and Editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, joins us to discuss the history of bond market cycles and why the dramatic rise in interest rates that began in March of last year might have ushered in a prolonged bear market in bonds.
Grant argues that bond yields have trended in generation-length periods, with each cycle lasting at least 20 years. He believes that the bull market in bonds that began in the early 1980s has now come to an end, and that we are now embarking on a long-term period of rising interest rates.

Audio Version:
https://on.soundcloud.com/3cNTh

There are more generous INHERITED IRA rules for a spouse 10 years, or even younger, than the deceased.
You may be confusing the RMD rules for a regular (as opposed to inherited) IRA. Here are the rules for spousal inherited IRAs as described by Chuck. The only place "10 years younger" appears is for IRAs inherited by someone who is not a spouse.
https://www.schwab.com/ira/inherited-and-custodial-ira/inherited-ira-withdrawal-rules
If while you and your young spouse are alive you are subject to RMDs, you use Table II to compute your RMDs. This table is based on both your age and that of your spouse and results in smaller RMDs based in part on the longer life expectancy of your spouse.
https://www.irs.gov/publications/p590b#en_US_2022_publink100090077

@MikeM. @yogibearbull.
On second thought, Mike is correct. It might make sense to gift my son some money. We have a joint account back in California, but he has his own individual account, too. Might I send it THERE? I understand that there will need to be taxes paid on T-IRA withdrawals. Except for the fact that our taxable income never meets the threshold. We never pay federal income tax. As long as I don't pull out too much each January from that IRA....
Also, unrelated: Month by month, in baby steps, I'm growing the joint taxable brokerage account. And some of the January annual withdrawal ends up in there, too. There are more generous INHERITED IRA rules for a spouse 10 years, or even younger, than the deceased. But what I try to teach her about all of this goes in one ear and out the other. She can get at the taxable account without worrying about ANY IRA rules, and that's what she prefers. And she has one totally crazy schedule that she keeps. I don't complain.
Thank you both.

Since this post has been bumped . . .
Prof. Snowball's thesis in his column:

in every measure of returns, more equity is better. In every measure of risk and of risk-adjusted returns, less equity is better. Several earlier MFO essays on the discreet charm of stock-lite portfolios found the same relationship is true for periods dating back 100 years. Lightening up equity exposure reduces your volatility by a lot more than it reduces your returns, so it always seems like the best move for risk-conscious investors.

And he chose four "Great Owls", which included FAGIX and FPACX as well as OSTIX and RSIVX, as great alternatives to only equities. All four buy more, or less, junk. I chose to run PV against FAGIX because I am not comfortable buying most bond funds whether they're buying junk, or agencies.
If David Giroux wants to buy junk, well, that's why I bought his fund. Let him worry about it. I don't need to pay above average fees to FPA.I can load up on cash myself. YMMV.
In this PV I'm looking at GLFOX versus FAGIX and FPACX. I think of GLOFX as a global version of Electric Company, Waterworks, and the railroads. So, Widows & Orphans take a ride on The Reading . . .
For those that don't follow links, GLOFX has the better standard deviation, Sharpe, and Sortino numbers, a better compound growth rate, lost less money in the worst year of holding, has less correlation to the market, and the lowest beta and highest alpha.

And here is the original W&O versus FPACX. Since July 1993 FPACX is the winnerin returns, while W&O beat FAGIX.
Here are some runs against what MFO Premium calls The Great Normalization (TGN), which they date from January 2022

First: W&O versus FPACX and FAGIX. My take away is that the fund with the best SD, Sharpe, and Sortino numbers also had the worst CAGR, worst yearly loss, and highest market correlation. YMMV
And here is W&O Ride the Rails. And it looks to me like the fund with the worst Sharpe and Sortino numbers has lost the least amount of your money. But I don't always spot things correctly. Let me know if you see something different.
Why did I run these numbers? It's the kind of thing I like to do when people say things like every. I like to dig a little deeper.

Getting back to my prior posts here about playing in the Seconday Issues sandbox in case anyone is interested...
FWIW, I will rolling over some CDs starting in the next two weeks as some rungs mature. There are still a coupla New Issues left in the Fido inventory (after last week's shake out) that meet my respective hurdles for their maturities. But there are also a coupla Secondary Issues that I just might BUY instead. I will be massaging those numbers in detail and will provide a summary of my decisions.
@Jan: There are NO commissions (fees) charged to the BUYer of a Fido or VG New Issue CD. They both charge the same % fee on Secondary Issues BUYs. As noted previously, for example, on the BUY of a $50K Secondary Issue CD, the fee at both is $50. That fee of course needs to be accounted for in determining which BUY is better, New or Secondary Issue. FWIW, I have never and would never pay a fee for a New Issue CD. I have however many times over the past 15 years happily paid the (IMO) nominal fee on Secondary Issues in order to increase my effective yields over those then offered by New Issues.

I think that list includes acquirers as well as acquired and bankrupt banks.
I had an a/c at NetBank when it failed. Its buyout by EverBank had fallen through. As part of the FDIC rescue, it was acquired by ING Direct (anyone remember that?), and that was acquired by Capital One when Dutch rescue of ING required its withdrawal from most foreign operations. That is how I got a Capital One a/c.
EverBank itself was acquired by TIAA a few years ago and was renamed TIAA Bank. TIAA had 2nd thoughts and has now spun off EverBank, so it exists again.

Gee, this sounds strangely - and disturbingly- familiar.....as the coda to 'The Big Short' notes, even as the dust was settling from the GFC, banks already were exploring the sale of CDOs under different names like "bespoke debt tranche instruments." History may not repeat, but it sure does rhyme, which also suggests the WSJ is being somewhat disingenuous in calling this a 'new' thing.
Big Banks Cook Up New Way to Unload Risk
Banks are selling risk to hedge funds, private-equity firms through so-called synthetic risk transfers
U.S. banks have found a new way to unload risk as they scramble to adapt to tighter regulations and rising interest rates.
U.S. Bank and others are selling complex debt instruments to private-fund managers as a way to reduce regulatory capital charges on the loans they make, people familiar with the transactions said.
These so-called synthetic risk transfers are expensive for banks but less costly than taking the full capital charges on the underlying assets. They are lucrative for the investors, who can typically get returns of around 15% or more, according to the people familiar with the transactions.
< - >
The deals function somewhat like an insurance policy, with the banks paying interest instead of premiums. By lowering potential loss exposure, the transfers reduce the amount of capital banks are required to hold against their loans
< - >
Banks started using synthetic risk transfers about 20 years ago, but they were rarely used in the U.S. after the 2008-09 financial crisis. Complex credit transactions became harder to get past U.S. bank regulators, in part because similar instruments called credit-default swaps amplified contagion when Lehman Brothers failed.
Regulators in Europe and Canada set clear guidelines for the use of synthetic risk transfers after the crisis. They also set higher capital charges in rules known as Basel III, prompting European and Canadian banks to start using synthetic risk transfers regularly.
U.S. regulations have been more conservative. Around 2020, the Federal Reserve declined requests for capital relief from U.S. banks that wanted to use a type of synthetic risk transfer commonly used in Europe. The Fed determined they didn’t meet the letter of its rules.
< - >
https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/bank-synthetic-risk-transfers-basel-endgame-62410f6c

https://www.medicare.gov/plan-compare/?utm_campaign=20231101_oep_mpf_pfa_mamc&utm_content=english&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery#/compare-plans?plans=2024-H5521-323-0&plans=2024-H9615-019-0&plans=2024-H2775-106-0&fips=36117&year=2024&lang=en
Try this from the medicare site. I'm in NY state and have had Aetna for 3 years going on 4 in 2024. Each year I compare options and they are as good or better than others. I have the zero pay plan because I have no health concerns or prescriptions other than a statin to control cholesterol.
edit: I do self-medicate with beer, but Aetna won't pay for that on any of their plans :)

Monday Bloomberg posted, lowest export of wheat in 20 years due to low water in the rivers. My thought , use the railroad.

Just finished reading Prof. Snowball's piece on junk bonds in which much is made of the virtue of investing in junk, as opposed to "equities."
Just for fun ("Gonna turn this mother out.") I decided to back-test FAGIX versus an equal-weight widows-and-orphans portfolio of FSUTX and FDFAX not subject to rebalancing. I had no idea how this would turn out.
The Vanguard 500 is included as the benchmark. Results since 1986 in this link. Junk has the lower standard deviation. But how many people pay attention to SD versus "Worst year I spent with this portoflio?" Junk had the worst year versus W&O at 31.9% to 27.36%. I also notice that W&O lead on Sharpe and Sortino numbers. They also made twice as much money for you, and beat the 500 index just for fun.
How about other time periods? Prof. Snowball looks at 15 years. FAGIX pulls slightly ahead of W&O, but still has the worst year.
And 20 years. W&O are back in the money lead, but FAGIX pulls ahead on Sharpe and Sortino numbers.
Prof. Snowball also runs through numbers from all the periods of The Great Distortion, which I am too lazy to run. But I will run two of my favorites from MFO premium: Since COVID, and TGN. Portfolio Visualizer does not account for monthly starts, so the first test dates from 202001, and the second from 202201.
Since COVID, W&O eke out a win in money, Sharpe, and Sortino numbers. And they do much better in the worst-year category.
Since TGN, W&O have lost less of your money. And there is something to be said for that in a period of rising rates.
A person can have more fun with this PV by adding 100% VWELX or PRWCX as the third portfolio entry.

@hank Just for the heck of it....although not look-a-like investments, the chart covers 2 years for LCORX v FBALX v SPY, beginning in June, 2007; through 2008 and into mid 2009. This, of course; includes the full bottom of this time frame in March of 2009.

I've subscribed to Credit Karma for a few years. You get a lot of current info on your credit score, hard inquires, any new accounts opened and info on accounts active and closed. It will send you an email if anything about your credit score changes. Again, quite a bit of monitoring and info for free.

@Mona, I used annualcreditreport.com for years. It required accessing the credit bureaus from annualcreditreport.com portal only. It provided credit reports but not the credit scores - I could pay some to get those. Then, 1/yr restriction. As my wife & my reports are almost identical, I had a system going where I could check my credit report somewhere every 3 mo.
But I got tired of this tracking.
Things may also be a bit different now.
On the other hand, I can log into Credit Karma anytime for FREE full reports & Vantage Scores (similar to FICO Scores). It also has a monitoring system to send alerts for changes. I use it only few times a year. Of course, I get ads for Intuit products - TurboTax, Mint (in the past), etc.

The Fidelity site now has no CDs available for terms 2 years or longer. This is probably just a temporary repricing in the market, but I expect available yields will drop. Fortunately, I purchased my latest 5-year ladder just before the changes. Unfortunately, I have a lot of CDs and Treasuries maturing in the next few months, so I may need to reinvest at lower rates (or return to bond funds).

@FD1000, way to go digging those. @Baseball_Fan: Great term "confidently wrong"! I love it!

Mr. G isn't the only "expert" that has been wrong but still keep predicting. I collected over the years many of these for other experts.
Why would anyone predict the future?

Great question!
I dunno.
But many former M* participants will likely remember a couple of years ago when you presented YOUR projections of TR and SD for THE NEXT FIVE YEARS (sic) for a long list of bond OEFs.
Do you still have those projections? Would love to see them again!
Given your "bond OEFs are better than sliced bread" mentality at that time, and the last coupla years of bondland disasters, gotta think (read, "know") YOUR projections were off by miles!
But I trust (in your world) not as far off as your former bond god, now monthly punching bag, Gundlach!

@FD1000, way to go digging those. @Baseball_Fan: Great term "confidently wrong"! I love it!

Mr. G isn't the only "expert" that has been wrong but still keep predicting. I collected over the years many of these for other experts.
Why would anyone predict the future?

Sincere props and congrats to you @FD1000, glad to see someone doing well in the markets, they are challenging and tricky for sure....
What makes me go hmm, when I read your posts is why does a guy who is comfortably retired make huge moves in and out into various markets when you obviously "have enough"...kinda like an old Harley, if its running good, don't F*#K with it, leave the wrenches in your tool box.
Your models/strategy has obviously worked well but say what the heck would happen if y Iran launches a barrage of missles that overwhelm the missle defenses...what happens if Biden takes seriously ill or worse and we get Kamala in as president (I am intentionally NOT trying to bait anyone into a political kerfuffle) just saying that would jerk the markets limit down, no? You'd likely lose several years of profit in your investments, so why expose yourself to that possiblity?
Good Luck to you and ALL,
Baseball Fan