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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • What To Do With Excess Cash
    I disagree vehimently with the thesis here. Perhaps it’s because I remember back a decade ago when the prevailing question on financial discussion boards wasn’t “Why do people hold so much cash?” but rather “Are money market funds safe enough to invest in?” I’m afraid current investment climate affects our perceptions of what’s safe / appropriate for different individuals and what is not.
    Here’s an interesting line: “If a client has US$100 million, why would they need US$15 million or US$20 million in cash?” Bailin asks. “They should have it fully invested ....
    I’d turn that question around and ask: “If an investor has $100 million, why would he/she expose that nice fortune to any market risk at all?”
  • Best Banks In America For Savings, CD's & Mortgage Rates 2018
    This has been a paid advertisement, brought to you by ...
    1.85%, is that really the best one can do on a Savings/MM account? Missing from the list is Salem Five Direct, which yields 2.05%. The site also omits a couple of well known banks, Ally and Syncrony, that offer the same 1.75% as the second best yielding bank of those that are listed.
    Nor does it show the superior savings account rate of 1.90% of a bank that even advertises on the site: PurePoint Financial. Maybe PurePoint only paid to be listed with CD rates. Or maybe the banks shown on the savings account page paid to keep the higher rate off.
    (It's not PurePoint's $10K min that's the problem, because the savings account page lists Capital One, that also has a $10K min. Nor it is that PurePoint is not included in BankRate.com's site, which is the source of the data.)
    It doesn't even get the comparisons with TBTF banks correct. It shows them all yielding 0.01%. BankRate reports Citibank at 0.04% and BofA 0.03%.
  • Large corrections ahead on !? Stock Markets a Bomb Waiting to Go Off – Gregory Mannarino
    Thank you John. However, you failed to cite the best part:
    Mannarino expects war to come into play. Mannarino predicts, “This is going to lead to another world war. . . . I have said this many times, and that is this has the potential to be Biblical. It will be a worldwide event or a correction to fair value is really what it is. We might be seeing the opening salvos already. Governments around the world are building up their militaries just like the U.S. . . . We are unfortunately going to clear this out and lose a large percent of the world population through this financial correction and war. We will rebuild, but the world will not be what we are seeing now.”
    @JohnN - . What is your opinion on this? Have you sold off your stock holdings in anticipation of a market crash or world war?
    @Mark - Radiation gear
  • How To Invest Your Nest Egg? Here’s Advice From Two Rich Guys.
    FYI: Puritz and a business partner are putting their financial IQs to work advising middle-income savers how not to blow their nest eggs. They are doing it through a firm called Rebalance-IRA that is disrupting the staid world of boutique investing and stock picking by putting (almost) everything in the cloud.
    Its conceit is long-term, low-cost indexing, mostly through Vanguard Group’s exchange traded funds (ETF). (I have been a client of Vanguard for decades but do not own an ETF. I have index and managed funds.)
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/what-to-do-with-your-nest-egg-heres-advice-from-two-rich-guys/2018/07/06/734cd87e-7e26-11e8-bb6b-c1cb691f1402_story.html?utm_term=.b12a495e8ed6
    Rebalance IRA Websitde:
    https://www.rebalance-ira.com/
  • Vanguard Isn't Taking In As Much Money; Neither Is Anyone Else: Podcast
    A quick search turned up this Financial Adviser Mag article from 2014. It cites a Vanguard figure saying that 20% of RMDs were reinvested there.
    Of course that's only Vanguard investors, and may only count the RMD money that they reinvested at Vanguard, as opposed to moving it to an outside taxable account. Still, good for a ballpark sense.
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/what-if-your-client-doesn-t-need-the-rmd-19538.html
  • TCAPX (TRP)
    Capital Appreciation is Closed. Income is open. Capital Appreciation And Income is necessary why?
    This is why I hate(d) Royce. They allege(d) to be on the side of the shareholder and closed funds only to open near clones, some of them of course where ground to the dust in the wake of the financial crisis.
    I really think TRP has enough funds. I can understand if they want to start TRP Energy Fund or TRP Materials Fund since they also have some other sector funds. But THIS?!
  • 10 Mutual Funds Worthy Of July Fourth Fireworks
    2 funds in above list weren't around at the time of the financial crisis. As per MFO, these are there DD numbers
    ETIHX -37.7%
    DMCRX -28.9%
    DD's for the rest...
    AOFIX -49.9%
    LAGWX -54.5%
    WAMCX -62.6%
    MPEGX - 63.2%
    PHSKX -77.8%
    PTSGX -49.5%
    PXSGX -46.5%
    BIOPX -48.8%
    Recently, Dr Snowball in his running commentary hinted about the amount of information overload we get on daily basis. I'm adding to that overload. Hopefully, I'm actually improving it.
    The point of the article beats me. If I want fireworks knowing I can lose 77.8% of my principal, might as well buy Bitcoin at these levels.
    SPAM is SPAM. Doesn't matter if it's on MFO. I do not need to have EVERY single link on the internet posted on MFO. Every google search from my finger tips is going to end up on MFO.
    NOT!!!
  • Why Aren’t Most Americans Rich? These Theories May Help Explain It
    Isn't being rich a moving relative target? So if most Americans had $2.4 million in personal net worth, wouldn't that amount cease to be the one necessary to be rich? Then being rich would be $62 million. The article also of course--like most financial propaganda pieces--doesn't mention that wages for the poor and shrinking middle class have stagnated when adjusted for inflation for over 35 years, especially for the poor who have seen wages decline when adjusted for inflation. Invariably these pieces blame people for spending too much on avocado toast, lattes and cell phones when the situation is far more complex and also inequitable than that.
  • Wise Quotes
    Another Samuelson quote:
    What then is it that, since 2007, has caused Wall Street capitalism's own suicide?At the bottom of this worst financial mess in a century is this: Milton Friedman-Friedrich Hayek libertarian laissez-faire capitalism, permitted to run wild without regulation. This is the root source of today's travails. Both of these men are dead, but their poisoned legacies live on.
  • Bond Managers Eyeing Rising Volatility, Recession Potential
    I am gonna trademark 'recession on horizon'
    Possibly, similar to putting-off a hangover by drinking more? :)
    OK - I’ve now complied with your request for more sophisticated posts and have read the article. It’s very technical in its approach to analyzing current attitudes of credit managers and other financial gurus. Suspect this is the kind of research based analysis of current financial opinions money professionals, including fund managers, get paid to digest.
    Relevance to ordinary investors? Negligible. However, the excellent comments from several board members makes this thread of value.
  • The GAMCO Mathers Fund to liquidate
    Fascinating fund. About the best investment you could possibly have made over its first 17-18 years of life (1965 onward) as it profited from one financial disaster after the next. After that, not so sweet as the stock of disasters dried up a bit. The fund has now posted a net loss over the past 3, 5, 10, 20 and 30 year periods.
  • Bond Managers Eyeing Rising Volatility, Recession Potential
    Related. Bonds market
    Despite surge of market volatility, ‘junk’ corporate bonds are beating high-grade debt. What gives?
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/despite-surge-of-market-volatility-junk-corporate-bonds-are-beating-high-grade-debt-what-gives-2018-06-27
    Another financial writer who doesn’t take into consideration total return when computiing performance for ETFs. Far from being down (1.9%). YTD, HYG is actually positive YTD on a total return basis, albeit barely. . A fairly large discrepancy for those of us who are into attention to detail. The other large junk bond ETF is down YTD to the tune of 0.61%. The YTD total return for LQD of a negative 5.8% is also inaccurate. The gist of the article was correct however in that junk is outperforming investment grade.
  • Almost Half Of U.S. Couples Say Financial Health 'Very Good,' Fidelity Finds
    @DavidMoran
    OK, you're right- I (we?) didn't read down to that part. Note that it states that each couple "have a minimum household income of $75,000 or at least $100,000 in investable assets". Well hell, that's your average American "couple" for sure.
    Here's some of what Fidelity actually said:
    "Fidelity® Couples Study Uncovers Disconnects on Retirement Expectations"
    "43 percent, up from 27 percent in 2013) couldn't correctly identify how much their partner makes—and of that, 10 percent were off by $25,000 or more. Which begs the question: if so many couples can't get this most basic item in their financial lives correct, what other disconnects exist that are unknowingly causing cracks in their financial foundation"
    "When asked how much they will need to save to maintain their current lifestyle in retirement, nearly half (48 percent) have "no idea"—and 47 percent are in disagreement about the amount needed. This level of disagreement is highest among those who are closest to retirement—Baby Boomers (born 1946-64)."
    "74 percent say they worry about being able to afford unexpected health care costs in retirement, up from 70 percent in 2013. More than half (51 percent) worry about outliving their savings in retirement, a number that is significantly higher than what was reported in 2013."
    "Despite these concerns, only 21 percent have developed a retirement plan to ensure they do not outlive their savings"

  • Almost Half Of U.S. Couples Say Financial Health 'Very Good,' Fidelity Finds
    It's going to be interesting when their "feeling" that "their financial health is in good to excellent shape" meets reality.
    Yep - Those working class stiffs are making out just fine. Retire on Social Security alone (if it’s still there) and then live another 30 years. What could possibly go wrong?
  • Almost Half Of U.S. Couples Say Financial Health 'Very Good,' Fidelity Finds
    It's going to be interesting when their "feeling" that "their financial health is in good to excellent shape" meets reality.
    You just know that this was a well-designed survey, right? Thanks Ted, for more worthless garbage.
  • Almost Half Of U.S. Couples Say Financial Health 'Very Good,' Fidelity Finds
    FYI: Most American couples feel their financial health is in good to excellent shape, according to the Fidelity Investments Couples & Money study released Tuesday.
    The strong economy of the last few years may be the reason 47 percent of those surveyed said their household’s financial health is very good and another 22 percent went even further to say it is excellent.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/couples-say-they-re-feeling-good-about-their-finances-39431.html?print
  • Having Too Much Employer Stock In Your 401(k) Is Dangerous. Just Look At GE
    FYI: Average on Tuesday, many participants in its 401(k) retirement plan were likely in shock. Over one-third of the plan’s assets have been invested in the shares of General Electric, as shown by the company’s federal filings. Its share price has fallen by 60% since the end of 2016, as the S&P 500 has risen by over 25%.
    Similarly, participants in the 401(k) retirement plan at Scana—a natural gas company in Georgia—have suffered heavy losses from inadequate diversification. Over 60% of the plan’s assets were invested in Scana stock, as shown by the company’s federal filings. Its share price fell by nearly 50% since the end of 2016.
    As these examples illustrate, holding a large portion of your retirement assets in your employer’s stock is dangerous for your financial health. Such a large concentration undermines the risk-reducing benefits of a diversified securities portfolio. Indeed, a large holding in employer stock doubles your risk: If your company runs into major problems, you may lose your job and your retirement security.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://fortune.com/2018/06/20/general-electric-dow-jones-401k-retirement/
  • Here are your best choices in holding cash
    I've found an AT&T (T) make whole note, coupon 6.5%, maturing 3/15/29, with an asking YTW of 4.991%. (Other maturity bonds are also available; longer ones with higher yields and shorter ones with lower yields.) CUSIP 001957AW9.
    On the page you cited is a link to a Bloomberg article from ten days ago:
    AT&T Cut by Moody's as Time Warner Deal Adds Billions of Debt
    The purchase made the company the most indebted in the U.S., excluding financial companies. AT&T’s debt load will force it to refinance large amounts of debt every year, "making the company beholden to the health of the capital markets," Moody’s said as it lowered the company’s unsecured debt rating one level to Baa2, two levels above speculative grade.
    IMHO it's reasonable to hold a ten year corporate bond like this as part of one's diversified bond portfolio. Good cash flow (especially since it's a premium bond). So it does what a bond is supposed to do. Whether it's a good vehicle in which to hold cash is less clear. I suppose that depends on what one's requirements are for cash.
  • Portfolio Robustness Test
    Hi Guys,
    I have said this before and I will surely say it again and likely again over time. Monte Carlo simulations are a terrific tool to challenge the survival robustness of a portfolio. What portfolio? Any you own or are likely to own.
    There are now many free Monte Carlo simulators available on the Net. I especially like the one offered by Portfolio Visualizer. It provides many options, is comprehensive, is easy to use, and is fast. I have referenced it on earlier posts. Here is a Link to that useful financial tool:
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/monte-carlo-simulation#analysisResults
    If you want to explore the probability odds of a portfolio's survival, please give this tool an examination. I think you will be impressed with it. Give it a few test runs. You can use it to improve the survival odds of your portfolio. Enjoy and prosper.
    Best Regards
  • Vanguard Wins Over E*Trade With ETFs Despite 'No Payment' Policy
    FYI: Vanguard Group won a victory of sorts when E*Trade Financial Corp. added 32 of its exchange-traded funds to its commission-free platform. The arrangement allows prospective Vanguard buyers to avoid the $6.95 fee that E*Trade charges to trade funds that don’t make the cut, the online brokerage said in a statement this week.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/vanguard-wins-over-e-trade-with-etfs-despite--no-payment--policy-39370.html?print