January MFO is live Thank you,
@Hank, for the kind words. This month, in "
Patriotic Millionaires and the Uncertainty of Taxes", I show that the rich borrow and invest the money in stocks much as you described in ”
New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)”. The tax system allows the rich to withdraw their money at the lower capital gains rate which are not incurred until the stock is sold, and the "Stepped Up" basis benefits heirs.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2024/02/patriotic-millionaires-and-the-uncertainty-of-taxes/Those of us not in the "rich" category can still benefit. I have about 15% of my portfolio in after-tax accounts in a long-term investment bucket. In
"No, The 60/40 Portfolio Is Not Dead", I show that stock valuations are high so now is a good time to be more conservative.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2024/02/no-the-60-40-portfolio-is-not-dead/When valuations fall in the next one to three
years, I plan on increasing the allocations to stocks in these after-tax accounts to maybe even 100% to take advantage of the lower capital gains that are not occurred until the stock is sold. I will use a variable withdrawal strategy to withdraw extra from Traditional IRAs (Bucket #2) when market conditions are favorable and put the funds in a short-term Bucket for living expenses for when market conditions are unfavorable.
My article last month did not include taxes in some of the analysis. Having pensions and Social Security allows me to be less dependent upon withdrawing from savings. I will be adjusting my strategy based in part on the thoughtful insights in the MFO Discussion Board, and the research behind these articles.
Emerging Markets Anyone?
MS-Mike Wilson MS should have been fired
years ago because he has been wrong for
years.
(
link)
There are many strategists that have been wrong. Too bad they are rarely held accountable. Investor's memories are shorter than one would think!
GMO: the quality anomaly There was an argument in M* that moat is better than quality. And indeed, MOAT beats FUQIX, QUAL since its inception, though FUQIX is better during last 5 years, and especially during the last year: MOAT does not contain any of Mag 7 companies.
YTD - how is your portfolio doing "After all these years of doing this" (thanks Jimmy Buffett, RIP) easily the best (looking and potential upside) portfolio we've ever had.
SAFE component of FZDXX/VMRXX and 5-yr CD ladder with 5+% APY.
80/20 stock/bond portion of about a baker's dozen OEFs (70% Active/30% Passive) and (recently added) GOOGL UP in aggregate ~3% YTD, lead by FSELX (Atta boy, NVDA!), FDSVX and PRWAX. PRWCX currently underperforming (partner in crime) FBALX but Giroux will do that on brief, interim bases.
Bottom Line? As Jimmy B once said,
"Well, I'm still here. Didn't have to go to rehab, and I'm not broke."
Best Biotech Fund? @Graust, great posts and so good to see you posting here. I always learned a lot from you on M* forum.
Fully agree with your notions in first post. I marveled at FBIOX in its heyday
years and always considered buying it. In retrospect, glad I didn't.
I too would group biotech, international, emerging markets, and small caps as categories that demand active mgmt and would add, that are so hard to find consistently worthy funds to hold LT. That said, we recently added GSIHX for FLCG as a possible LT, core holding and are looking at two actively managed SCs as possible BUYs.
Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum. @stillersGSIHX (
stillers corrected for quoted poster) is 17% US and 6% Novo Nordsik and 5% NVDA 2% META and 2% TSCM
May explain a lot of recent out performance
May, yeah.
10%-20% Domestic is however not uncommon in FLG funds. See SSIFX, a worthy competitor in the category with ~16% (and 9% Novo). Meanwhile, BUFIX currently has 8% Domestic.
But you'd have to look back at its holdings and its competitors for the past 3+
years as it has outperformed its peers regularly, starting in 2021:
Year_Rank in Category
2021 30
2022 2
2023 7
2024 2
MS-Mike Wilson MS should have been fired
years ago because he has been wrong for
years.
(
link)
MS-Mike Wilson Mike Wilson has had opportunities in fall 2023 to adjust his views as more data became available. He struck to the inverted yield curve narrative too long. One would think there are ample resources at MS that he can lean on in order to see other more balanced views over a longer time horizon.
Recent interview with David Giruox mentioned that TRP evaluate stocks on a 5-years investment horizon, not short term. Their longer view pans out nicely in a number of TRP funds.
Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum. Hopefully the link worked. if not just put in your browser.
Marshfield equity composite from 2007-2020
might give you a longer track insight as to performance....note cash levels at 23% in 2007...
I've been following the fund a long time, did see Denis Baran's article a few
years back and then invested when it became available on the Schwab platform..
https://issuu.com/biglehart2016/docs/marshfield_associates_for_rbc_june_2020_equity_bro
Neuberger Berman AMT Funds liquidates two funds Thanks guys. Not real familiar with this firm. But have held NLSAX a couple
years. At $6.6 Bil AUM no reason to worry. Yes, those AUMs
@msf cites for the affected
funds portfolios in the $30-40 Mil range are very low.