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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    @BenWP, US-style capitalism has favored shareholders (not necessarily an equitable division of profits), but EM firms have funneled the dough into the hands of corrupt officials, founding families, and antidemocratic governments.
    I couldn’t agree more. I have to hold my noise investing in 529 plan that have Total International market index fund that has 20% EM. There are limited choice available. These days investing in EM is much worse than 20 years ago.
    Buffet said that “there are few better place to invest than America” and he is spot on.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    If there is an EM fund to be in, GQGIX has been the one. India has been on a tear and Brazil morerecently is doing well after many years of not. Good job and good luck @PRESSmUP.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    As long ago as 2021, J. Rekenthaler of M* wrote:
    "Ten years ago, many pundits foresaw a rebound in emerging-markets stocks, on the theory that they were worthy investments that had temporarily lost popularity. This "fashion argument" has failed the test of time. Such stocks have languished for good reason. Emerging-markets countries have treated their insiders much better than they have their outsider shareholders. For their stocks to appeal to long-term U.S. investors, that habit must change."
    US-style capitalism has favored shareholders (not necessarily an equitable division of profits), but EM firms have funneled the dough into the hands of corrupt officials, founding families, and antidemocratic governments.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    My experience with emerging markets has been along the lines of submerging markets and sunk costs. :(
    Yes. Right out of Disney Studios - “A tale as old as time ...”
    EM as an investment has not lived up to expectations. My first experience owning one was in the mid-80s. A “no-go” even then. The fund folded a decade later. @sfnative is spot-on with the reasons. Maybe we fickle investors play a small part too by moving money in and out of these funds and handicapping the managers. And fees are high.
    I was being just a bit “tongue-in-cheek” referencing “speculative” opportunities. Yes - get the timing right and you can make money. I’ve had some luck in the past with PRLAX (Latin America) and DODEX. But speculative ventures by their very nature tend to be relatively small. So you’re not going to move the needle very much. Global / international funds that include EM are fine. However, in recent years I’ve moved away from plain vanilla equity funds into L/S and other types that can better hedge downside.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    Many brokerages post bullish forecast on EM for many years. Relationships between China and US have deteriorated in recent years and many firms are moving their supply chains to other countries.
    Also foreign investment is drying up in China. There are ample evidences of splitting the global economy into two. So where are the opportunities for investors?
    Like other posters said, many developed market funds already have some % of EM exposure. Even big tech companies have sizable revenue from China, Why increase the risk?
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    Before I was blocked from reading it further, I think I saw the OP linked article state EMs have the best growth opportunities over the next 5-10 years, and if it doesn't all start now, it will within the next 1-2 years. Say what? Not quite the ringing endorsement I'd need to jump off the EM plank!
    Anyone considering EMs needs to study the Callan Chart (below), and unless they are the amongst the world's best market timers, think again, and Just Say No!
    Click on the 2023 PDF Chart at
    https://www.callan.com/periodic-table/
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    Hard pass, no thank you.
    Said it on here a couple years ago, stated back then I wouldn't invest a dime in China and that was the right call.
    Why would you risk moving monies and investing in places where most couldn't pick them out on a map, don't have the same governance related to capital markets and rule of law and what exactly are you investing in other than some of kind of view on currency rates that you cannot invest in an American company and get the exposure that you are looking for?
    Maybe, just maybe I would invest in an overseas holding company like Jardine to get exposure to a large and growing population but even then, nah, probably not..
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    EM has been nothing but a black hole for me. Sold my two funds with relatively high EM holdings last year, and I’m sleeping better. My best performing EM fund (SFGIX) gained scarcely more than a mediocre bond fund in more than a decade of owning. Others fared even worse. (Eg, MAPIX) Mind you, various “experts” have been touting EM for many, many years — and they’ve been wrong. I don’t need to own any more investments that I might not live long enough to see gains.
  • GMO: the quality anomaly
    As SAI (Statement of Additional Information) already had a meaning, the SEC shouldn't have allowed Fidelity to use SAI for another purpose (really, made up, because it doesn't even follow from Strategic Advisors LLC).
    BTW, over the years, some info that used to be in prospectus is now relegated to SAI. And some firms like Price/TROW have a combined SAI for most of its funds and that SAI is several hundred pages (most firms SAIs are for multiple funds, but TROW over did that).
  • January MFO is live
    Thank you, @Hank, for the kind words. This month, in "Patriotic Millionaires and the Uncertainty of Taxes", I show that the rich borrow and invest the money in stocks much as you described in ”New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)”. The tax system allows the rich to withdraw their money at the lower capital gains rate which are not incurred until the stock is sold, and the "Stepped Up" basis benefits heirs.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2024/02/patriotic-millionaires-and-the-uncertainty-of-taxes/
    Those of us not in the "rich" category can still benefit. I have about 15% of my portfolio in after-tax accounts in a long-term investment bucket. In "No, The 60/40 Portfolio Is Not Dead", I show that stock valuations are high so now is a good time to be more conservative.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2024/02/no-the-60-40-portfolio-is-not-dead/
    When valuations fall in the next one to three years, I plan on increasing the allocations to stocks in these after-tax accounts to maybe even 100% to take advantage of the lower capital gains that are not occurred until the stock is sold. I will use a variable withdrawal strategy to withdraw extra from Traditional IRAs (Bucket #2) when market conditions are favorable and put the funds in a short-term Bucket for living expenses for when market conditions are unfavorable.
    My article last month did not include taxes in some of the analysis. Having pensions and Social Security allows me to be less dependent upon withdrawing from savings. I will be adjusting my strategy based in part on the thoughtful insights in the MFO Discussion Board, and the research behind these articles.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    What are people's views on Emerging Markets for the next 5 years? Lazard and AQR are very bullish. Is it always a tough sell with the BATNA being the S&P500/magnificent 7?
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-15/quant-fund-aqr-doubles-down-on-bullish-call-for-emerging-markets?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy
  • MS-Mike Wilson
    MS should have been fired years ago because he has been wrong for years.
    (link)
    There are many strategists that have been wrong. Too bad they are rarely held accountable. Investor's memories are shorter than one would think!
  • GMO: the quality anomaly
    There was an argument in M* that moat is better than quality. And indeed, MOAT beats FUQIX, QUAL since its inception, though FUQIX is better during last 5 years, and especially during the last year: MOAT does not contain any of Mag 7 companies.
  • YTD - how is your portfolio doing
    "After all these years of doing this" (thanks Jimmy Buffett, RIP) easily the best (looking and potential upside) portfolio we've ever had.
    SAFE component of FZDXX/VMRXX and 5-yr CD ladder with 5+% APY.
    80/20 stock/bond portion of about a baker's dozen OEFs (70% Active/30% Passive) and (recently added) GOOGL UP in aggregate ~3% YTD, lead by FSELX (Atta boy, NVDA!), FDSVX and PRWAX. PRWCX currently underperforming (partner in crime) FBALX but Giroux will do that on brief, interim bases.
    Bottom Line? As Jimmy B once said,
    "Well, I'm still here. Didn't have to go to rehab, and I'm not broke."
  • Best Biotech Fund?
    @Graust, great posts and so good to see you posting here. I always learned a lot from you on M* forum.
    Fully agree with your notions in first post. I marveled at FBIOX in its heyday years and always considered buying it. In retrospect, glad I didn't.
    I too would group biotech, international, emerging markets, and small caps as categories that demand active mgmt and would add, that are so hard to find consistently worthy funds to hold LT. That said, we recently added GSIHX for FLCG as a possible LT, core holding and are looking at two actively managed SCs as possible BUYs.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @stillers
    GSIHX (stillers corrected for quoted poster) is 17% US and 6% Novo Nordsik and 5% NVDA 2% META and 2% TSCM
    May explain a lot of recent out performance
    May, yeah.
    10%-20% Domestic is however not uncommon in FLG funds. See SSIFX, a worthy competitor in the category with ~16% (and 9% Novo). Meanwhile, BUFIX currently has 8% Domestic.
    But you'd have to look back at its holdings and its competitors for the past 3+ years as it has outperformed its peers regularly, starting in 2021:
    Year_Rank in Category
    2021 30
    2022 2
    2023 7
    2024 2
  • MS-Mike Wilson
    MS should have been fired years ago because he has been wrong for years.
    (link)
  • MS-Mike Wilson
    Mike Wilson has had opportunities in fall 2023 to adjust his views as more data became available. He struck to the inverted yield curve narrative too long. One would think there are ample resources at MS that he can lean on in order to see other more balanced views over a longer time horizon.
    Recent interview with David Giruox mentioned that TRP evaluate stocks on a 5-years investment horizon, not short term. Their longer view pans out nicely in a number of TRP funds.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.

    Hopefully the link worked. if not just put in your browser.
    Marshfield equity composite from 2007-2020
    might give you a longer track insight as to performance....note cash levels at 23% in 2007...
    I've been following the fund a long time, did see Denis Baran's article a few years back and then invested when it became available on the Schwab platform..
    https://issuu.com/biglehart2016/docs/marshfield_associates_for_rbc_june_2020_equity_bro
  • Neuberger Berman AMT Funds liquidates two funds
    Thanks guys. Not real familiar with this firm. But have held NLSAX a couple years. At $6.6 Bil AUM no reason to worry. Yes, those AUMs @msf cites for the affected funds portfolios in the $30-40 Mil range are very low.