Baseball_Fan, I have been doing pretty well using the big picture + T/A for decades..(link).
You can also see what I think of many experts over the years, including Tom Lee (link).

Is today’s market rational and so relies on the Magnificent Seven stocks ? Equal weight RSP, lagged S&P 500 by a wide margin last several years. Will the tide turn this year but I hope so?
@Art, NDNA NVDA, NVIDIA is one of the Magnificent Seven stock. At least you did not pick TSLA.

The following is a heavily edited extract from a current NPR report:
Diana Choyleva is a senior fellow on China's economy at the Asia Society. She and others see the potential for deflation ahead as the Chinese economy struggles with a number of issues going forward. In November, consumer prices in China fell at their fastest rate in three years.
China "should be on American's radar because, first of all, China is a huge economy," Choyleva says. "If China is having severe deflation at home, pretty much the only choice left would be [for it] to export deflation."
At first glance, that would seem to benefit consumers buying Chinese-made goods. Instead, it's more likely to mean that U.S.-based competitors will need to lower their prices to compete with a flood of ever-cheaper Chinese products.
"That translates into businesses closing, jobs being lost and consumers being worse off," Choyleva says.
Dexter Roberts, director of China affairs at the Mansfield Center at the University of Montana sees similar concerns. The U.S. and China, he says, "are deeply entwined," and most top U.S. multinationals "secure a significant portion of their revenues and profits from the China market or their supply chains start there."
Meanwhile, China is pumping money into manufacturing to try to offset its slowing economy.
"Ultimately, [China] is going to be producing a lot of goods that they need to sell somewhere, and they're going to be selling them on the cheap. So I would imagine [that] could be a deflationary force."

Note: Text emphasis was added

@davfor, yes, I can think of all those reasons why people might wish for cuts. How many of them have anything to do with the Fed's legal mandate?

The Federal Reserve System has been given a dual mandate—pursuing the economic goals of maximum employment and price stability.
Its my sense this fed has succeeded in establishing its inflation fighting credentials. And, the feds goal is to achieve both maximum employment and price stability and to thereby keep the economy growing. There are fairly strong signs the inflation rate may be sustainably trending downward after experiencing a strong spike caused by supply/demand imbalances during the the pandemic. The aggregate supply and demand of workers is also moving towards a balance point. With a sustainable path to achieving the price stability coming into view, it is reasonable for the fed to start shifting more of its focus to reducing the strains and imbalances caused by the interest rate spike (including those noted above). Doing that will help it continue to achieve the maximum employment part of its mandate. Waiting longer than necessary increases the risk of unnecessarily weakening the economy and of increasing the unemployment rate. Will it take 3, 6, 12, or 24 months worth of additional favorable data to provide the fed enough time to confirm that reducing the fed funds rate is prudent? My expectation is that 6 months or less will be enough. But, I am not yet making any significant investment decisions based on that expectation. (What was once the bond sleeve of my portfolio was renamed to be the ballast sleeve several years ago.)

The Nov-Dec huge performance is over.

Looking forward into 2024 has me considering what is likely to happen if the federal funds rate begins to decline this spring as I think it probably will. By then, the forward looking bond market may well be pricing in rate cuts in addition to those priced in during the latter part of 2023. For the first time in several years I am fairly optimistic about multisector bond fund prospects for the current year as it begins. (PIMIX is a fair weather fund and will likely do well if 2024 turns out to be a bullish year for multisector bond funds. But, 2021 clearly showed it to be too volatile to include among my bond fund holdings.)

The Nov-Dec huge performance is over.
YTD is what counts now. My "gamble" right now is on funds with low SD + bigger yield, think 8+%, and excellent performance YTD.
There are 4 funds on my short list, I own 2.
https://schrts.co/TeIaWmPu
Definitely not PIMIX and its higher SD and lower yield. I used to own PIMIX at 50+% for years until 01/2018. The magic has been gone since then. For investors who hold, I prefer RCTIX.

again, FD and others, could you make the comparison not to, say, TUHYX, but specifically to JAAA, since it is far more like the others: good yield, good performance and fairly low volatility (at least for the last 1.5 years). thanks!

Had TRP accounts for 25 years...the site sucks!!! Way harder to research and navigate that site than Fidelity!!! Glad I made that move!!! Consolidation is big help!

Glad your experience was what it was.
My experience of Fidelity's website is: Run away! Run away, and be very afraid!
Complicated, clunky.

Had TRP accounts for 25 years...the site sucks!!! Way harder to research and navigate that site than Fidelity!!! Glad I made that move!!! Consolidation is big help!

My main debit card that I use all over the world for cash only is Schwab. It has everything I need, see
https://thetravelfolk.com/no-atm-fees-the-charles-schwab-debit-card/
In the last several years, I hardly use cash because I can use Google pay + credit cards + Zelle, Paypal, and Venmo for the rest.

@stillers
We have alerts set at one cent on all our accounts with emails and texts. Works great. Texts come in before you leave the store.
It is funny because years ago we got a second credit card to use "only online" with a lower credit limit than our primary card, thinking online transactions were more risky.
In the decade plus since, that "online only" card has never been compromised but our primary card gets a fraudulent transaction at least every couple of years. I guess from skimmers. The Visa people don't care, just send us a new card.
Once I bought some wine at a local store with another card I use only a couple of times a year and then within 24 hours there was a fraudulent charge.
Thinking it had to be an employee at the store, I called Visa and told them to investigate and call the cops. They said it was cheaper just to send me a new card.

I sold all of the muni funds in our taxable account last year and reinvested in CDs and Treasuries, as well as an ultra-short bond fund, FCNVX. My CD- Treasury ladder goes out five years, with more issues on the short end. The yield on munis is so much lower than taxable bonds that they don’t seem worth it unless you’re in a higher tax bracket.
Since we have so much money in CDs, Treasuries and short term bonds, I’m taking a little more risk with several moderately conservative allocation funds — namely FMSDX, PRFCX and TAIFX. As long as the yields on CDs and Treasuries remain fairly high, I will probably keep my ladder going as issues mature. I prefer Treasuries over CDs when the yields are comparable because they are more tax efficient and easier to sell if needed.

Glad to see several others recognize the high risks of debit cards.
Bottom Line per my nephew who was a VP of a local bank:
"The riskiest card by far you will likely ever carry in your wallet is a bank debit card."
Along with ONLY using a debit card for ATM transactions, one very effective control we've used for them for many years (and I HIGHLY recommend to all readers here) is an email (or text I would guess) notification of ALL debit card transactions immediately upon occurrence. The bank we use allows customers to set a dollar limit for that control, which we set at $1. It has been our experience that our bank has never missed one of these notifications - I go to an ATM and w/d $200, an email pops into my Inbox. After the fact, but at least immediate notification!

Is it reasonable to call PVCMX a tactical allocation fund, rather than an equity fund?
I have liked HFSAX in the tactical allocation category for a while. I spoke with the fund personnel a few years ago but never got around to pulling the trigger because I was not sure how long the manager will work in asset management (single manager fund). Does anyone here by any chance know? He does not need work. I am not sure anyone else can replicate his skill. I think 2022 and 2023 performance is an anomaly relative to the fund's long history.

In reading all of the above commentary I still find myself wondering what payment method is really "safe"?
We have never used a debit card, except on European vacations for local cash withdrawal. Lucky there- never had a problem.
All credit card debt is paid in full each month. Over the years we have had a couple of instances of credit-card fraud/theft, which were caught quickly and caused no loss on our part.
Some entities have recurring permission to bill to a credit card account. No entities have permission to withdraw directly from a bank account.
Being very old-fashioned, my wife still pays virtually everything by credit card or checks, mailed directly from within the post office. If a check was stolen, at would have to be at the delivery end, which at least cuts the theft location opportunity in half. Checks are written with gel pen, as recommended by security organizations. The checks themselves, from Schwab Bank, have a security indicator which changes color if exposed to at least some types of tampering.
Given the fact that the value of the checks can vary so dramatically from month-to-month, I need to keep a substantial amount of money in the Schwab checking account, which would seem to be our most vulnerable point for fraud/theft. Not too sure what can be done about that, though. I do check the Schwab checking account balance every few days just to keep an eye on things.
It seems as if every permutation of payment systems has some sort of potential weakness.

Taking dividends is a lot easier than figuring out total return. The money just shows up if you aren't reinvesting. No doubt there's lots of academic arguments over this.

Not really.
Example: you can use a simple index = SP500 = FXAIX at Fidelity to sell shares every month for a specific amount ($2-4K) on a certain day and let it run for years, problem solved and you know exactly how much you get every month.
The only thing that matters is total returns which include the distributions.

@hank
You noted: Seriously … I’m convinced that moving from TRP to a Fido brokerage account several years ago took 2-3 years off my life. Horrendous experience.
Horrendous regarding which organization? Thank you.

-
Thanks for the ”catch” Catch. Some may remember the episode from about 3 years ago. In fact, you were one of the members who answered technical questions and provided encouragement.
- In the first half of 2021 I initiated a transfer of assets from TRP to Fidelity (cash method).
- A paper check from TRP arrived at Fido after about 2-3 weeks.
- Fido opened an account and deposited credited the proceeds from this check.
- I than purchased several different funds.
- 1-2 days later TRP cancelled the check (refused to pay).
- I learned of this only after Fido had sold the funds I’d purchased (at a loss to me).
- Fido notified me I was in violation of SEC rules (“free-riding”) and their own policies as well.
- I struggled for answers with a number TRP’s (mostly inept) phone reps over several days.
- 15-20 minute phone “holds” in the middle of discussions were common over this period.
- TRP admitted error, apologized and said they would rectify it.
- After 7-10 days another check from TRP arrived at Fidelity.
- All 4 of my accounts (Roth, Trad, 2 TOD) were placed on 90 day probation.
- Being on probation prevents using / reinvesting / proceeds from sales of investments for a number of days (until after Fido receives the funds). Further “infractions” could lead to being bared from trading.
Arrrgh!

@hank
You noted: Seriously … I’m convinced that moving from TRP to a Fido brokerage account several years ago took 2-3 years off my life. Horrendous experience.
Horrendous regarding which organization? Thank you.

I seldom write checks anymore.
My average annual number of checks has been ~6 the past few years (property tax, vehicle registration, dentist).
An online bill payment platform is used to make the vast majority of payments.
I purchased Uniball "207" gel pens several years ago but am disappointed with their performance -
they do not write as smoothly as I would like.
I've already implemented most of the practices suggested in the article with the primary exception
being taking pictures of checks.