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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    Several Matthews Asia funds were mentioned.
    I personally would stay away from all Matthews Asia funds in the near-term (possibly long-term).
    There has been an exodus of talent at the firm over the past few years.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/152046
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/156101
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/159415
  • Infinity Q Capital Management Plans to Return $500 Million to Mutual-Fund Investors
    Excerpted from a CityWire article published on 04/07/2023.
    "James Velissaris, the founder, former CIO and lead portfolio manager of Infinity Q Capital Management, was sentenced to 15 years in prison and ordered to pay an unspecified amount of restitution by US District Judge Denise Cote on Friday afternoon in Manhattan."
    "Velissaris, 38, of Atlanta, pleaded guilty in November 2022 to one count of securities fraud in a deal with federal prosecutors in the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York that dropped several other felony charges and required him to forfeit $22m. The charges came about as a result of his role in a $1bn fund overvaluation scheme, with federal officials publicly levying their accusations in early 2022."
    Link (paywall)
    I'm glad that Mr. Velissaris received a lengthy prison sentence for the serious crimes he committed.
    Hopefully, this case will deter others in the financial industry from engaging in fraudulent schemes.
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    Interesting “Up & Down Wall Street” column this week written by Andy Serwer (whom I can’t recall ever reading before). Writes with a nice flair.
    Extended excerpt: “To my mind, Dimon is essentially making the point that no amount of regulation can ever anticipate or mitigate humankind's ability to make mistakes and get into trouble—intentionally or not. And that got me thinking about John Maynard Keynes and his notion of animal spirits:
    Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as a result of animal spirits—of a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.’
    In other words, we human beings act irrationally, which makes for bursts of creativity in the arts and, yes, even on Wall Street, but inevitably precipitates overexuberance in capital markets and bank runs. It also means that there is probably some limit on the marginal utility of incremental units of regulation, I suppose.” *
    -
    Put in that context, the recent bank run has the scent of the great toilet paper run of only a few years ago. Both an outgrowth of human irrationality. Now, which inflicted more hardship?
    *Source: Barron’s April 9, 2023 (Print Edition)
  • Anybody care to recommend a good natural resources ETF?
    @hank, only the precious metal funds may own physical commodities.
    Thanks. Guessing it’s a SEC limitation? I hadn’t thought about it, but any I’ve ever owned were based on derivatives. And I remember riding one into the ground at Oppenheimer during the last commodities bear market. The #**# thing (QRAAX) crashed and burned. Was finally shut down after 20 years in existence.
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    Excellent article by @LewisBraham.
    ————
    Addition: Similar thought process to LB for long term investment philosophy. Currently we invest in several funds mentioned for a number of years. We are fortunate to found Andrew Foster when he was running at Matthews Asia Growth & Income fund. Today we invest in both Seafarer funds. In April’s commentary @davidSnowball presented a detailed profile on Seafarer Oversea Value fund.
    We also invest with Patrick English’s team, FMIJX, a risk-adverse abd USD-hedged oversea fund.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Thanks for commenting @Observant1 - I appreciate links so much more when folks add a personal comment. Generally, the only time I’ll watch a linked video is if the poster has commented on it.
    Benz’s “Buckets” conjure up an image of somebody in a Bonanza - like western walking to and from the well. Prefer “allocation model” myself, although the label doesn’t matter much. In both personal and financial affairs I’m usually better off having a disciplined approach. So I’d be lost without my allocation model written down and securely stored among the digital archives. Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on viewpoint) mine is a whole lot more complex than Benz’s. It’s evolved over nearly 25 years in retirement as my knowledge base has grown, opportunities available have multiplied and age has advanced. I’d hate being still crammed into the same “bucket(s)” today as a quarter-century ago.
    Benz is no Einstein, but she appears generally well versed on the fund landscape as one would expect from Morningstar. I think 25-30 years back when I was in the process of ditching the Templeton assigned “advisor” (commanding a 4%+ front load) and developing my own self directed investment approach Benz’s advice would have been both stimulating and helpful. Today, not much. I think she’s appealing mainly to inexperienced investors.
    Some pertinent thoughts / observations:
    - Benz leads off characterizing bonds as a portfolio-wrecking “torpedo” in 2022. An interesting analogy, though I might have said “weighty anchor”. Equities could have have sunk your investment sloop even faster and driven it deeper than bonds last year, depending, of course, on which ones.
    - Benz suggests holding 1-2 years worth of cash reserve to “ride out” rough stretches of the market. Surely this is optimistic. While not one to hold a lot of cash myself, in reading others’ posts over the years it appears that her suggested 1-2 years worth of cash reserve is on the low end. Some well-versed investors here who subscribe to the “rainy day” approach have been known to hold anywhere from 3 to 5 years’ supply of cash to draw on in event of a prolonged bear market - a more realistic time frame. (Either you have religion or you don’t.)
    - Just 3 buckets seems rather basic - actually pretty simplistic.
    - The contents of Benz’s buckets appear to slosh around a bit. She mentions international funds “might be” an asset to include today. OK. Probably good advice. But a staunch “bucketeer” might well adhere to static allocations, periodically rebalancing. Adding / deleting components would appear tantamount to going off the reservation. She suggests some precious metals (now that they’ve appreciated significantly). Consider that there have been periods as brief as 2 or 3 years over which precious metals funds have fallen 50% or more. How many novice investors (to whom she seems to be appealing) would have the staying power to hold on to to an asset like that near the bottom?
    - She’s fond of index funds. If one has a 10-25 year time horizon that’s probably great advice. Over longer periods lower fees should translate into better outcomes. But it’s not that simple. First, today’s investors generally have shorter time horizons / are prone to hold funds for shorter periods than a generation ago. Timing decisions might well impact returns more than fees. Secondly, the advice to invest in indexes ignores the extent to which some of those may have become distorted / overpriced after decades of outperformance. For example, the cap-weighted S&P 500 might not be the best place to invest today. Some knowledgeable investors actually maintain small short positions on it, wagering, in effect, that other market areas will outperform.
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
    (Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2023/Q1 and YTD to 3/31/23)
    Pg L3: After lagging for several years, the INTERNATIONAL/GLOBAL funds are relatively cheap (value cheaper than growth) and may outperform. Use risk control strategies – lower SDs, favorable U/D CR, etc. For the US investors in foreign funds, a strong DOLLAR has been a headwind. OEFs: AIVBX, BISAX, FISMX, FMIJX, GQGPX, RNWOX, SGENX, SIGIX, TBGVX; ETFs: ACWV, EFA, EFAV, EFG, EFV, EEM, HDG, HEFA, VIGI. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Pg L8: The US-China DECOUPLING will take a while. China has also been tough on its big techs. But small-caps have escaped the watchful eyes of the Chinese government. OEFs: FHKCX, MCDFX, MCHFX, MCSMX, RNWOX, SIGIX, SGOVX; ETFs: ASHR, CHIQ, CNYA, CQQQ, CXSE, EWH, FXI, GXC, KBA, KWEB, MCHI, PGJ. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Pg L9: GROWTH funds are rebounding, but be selective. Some former big techs have fallen off the growth wagon and some energy companies have joined. Large-cap growth (IVW, MGK, RPG, SCHG) has been outperforming small/mid-cap growth (IJT, RZG). The OEFs mentioned are HCAIX, TRBCX, VWIGX.
    EXTRA: FAITH-BASED funds cover a wide variety and several are rebounding. Vatican published its investment guidelines in November 2022 that also included responsible ESG. Private direct-indexing is a growing area. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Fund news from elsewhere in Barron’s (Forthcoming Part 2).
    Pg 13, FUNDS. MUNI MONEY-MARKET funds (tax-exempt) with near juicy 4% yields are attractive. This is a tiny area with $130 billion AUM only vs $500 billion AUM pre-GFC-2008, and $5 trillion AUM for taxable money-market funds. These invest in floating-rate munis (VRDNs) that reset rates weekly according to the SIFMA rates. Typically, the SIFMA rates are 40-80% of (taxable) fed fund rates, but they are elevated now due to redemptions to pay taxes (so, these high rates may not last beyond April). These funds partner with BANKS to provide daily and weekly liquidity guarantees. By definition, their DURATION is considered to be the rate reset period regardless of the maturities of the underlying munis (so, don’t get alarmed when looking at their holdings and maturities). Mentioned are FTEXX / FTCXX, SWTXX, VMSXX, VTMXX. (Their overall structure and rate resetting process seem complicated and may have unknown risks)
    Pg 24, INCOME INVESTING. Selected REITs are attractive after their recent battering. Their earnings have been cut but the SP5500 earnings remain OK (so, the REITs client companies are doing fine). A FED pause will benefit the REITs, but RECESSION won’t, so it’s time only to nibble in REITs. Attractive REITs are industrial (PLD, ADC, GLPI), residential, self-storage, data-centers. Avoid REITs for offices and malls (big/regional or strip/local). Several publicly traded REITs are more attractive than private real estate (that suffer from lagging mark-to-market; negative news on monthly/quarterly redemption limits for several nontraded-REITs).
    Pg L33: In 2023/Q1 (SP500 +7.50%): Among general equity funds, best were LC-growth +13.52%, multi-cap-growth +11.35%, and worst were small-cap-value +0.77%, mid-cap-value +0.84%, equity-income +0.95%; ALL general equity categories were positive AGAIN. Among other equity funds, the best were sc & tech +18.80%, telecom +11.66%, global large-cap-growth +11.10%, and worst were financials -7.77%. Among fixed-income funds, domestic long-term FI +2.55%, world income +2.96%; ALL FI categories were positive too AGAIN (FI isn’t very refined in Lipper mutual fund categories listed in Barron’s). So, good 2022/Q4 (value shined) & 2023/Q1 (LC growth shined).
    LINK
  • Ecofin Sustainable Water Fund to be liquidated
    With EBLU drying up, can AQWA and IWTR be far behind?
    I have been treading water with FIW in the IRA due to when I purchased it. FIW and CGW are gurgling along in my wife's taxable, and slack in her IRA. Timing matters.PIO and PHO are two more main stems in the category that have been flowing fifteen years, or longer.
    We don't expect anything more than utility-like returns. From the start of the year Waterworks has been doing better than Electric Company. YMMV.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Started a position in OMFL. No good reason other than it has beaten the S&P500 for total return over the last 5 years.
    Interesting...OMFL has beaten the S&P 500 in each 1 of those 5 calendar years.

    Year
    OMFL S&P 500
    2018 -2.57% -4.52%
    2019 35.58% 31.33%
    2020 20.96% 18.25%
    2021 28.96% 28.53%
    2022 -13.97% -18.23%
    2023 (YTD) 8.78% 7.46%
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Started a position in OMFL. No good reason other than it has beaten the S&P500 for total return over the last 5 years.
  • Google cost cutting. Tape. Staplers.
    @Crash. Actually for a person with very little ambition becoming self employed was a bit awkward. But no more looking for another job and no more bosses made it work. For exactly 30 years. Of faking it.
  • TCAF, an ETF Cousin of Closed Price PRWCX
    +1
    In fairness, I don’t anticipate TRP doing that. What I see is investors chasing performance and the fund has been hot and attracting interest / money for a long time now. And Giroux, for better or worse, has claimed a lofty perch next to Gabelli, Cohen and other rock stars in Barron’s “Roundtable” two years running. I was a bit surprised he was invited back a second time in light of a couple of his early 2022 calls. Specifically a fondness for AMZ (which tanked shortly thereafter) plus a prediction the 10-year wouldn’t end the year above 3% - or some silly number. One wonders if that kind of fame and public scrutiny helps, harms, or has no effect on a manager’s psyche and decision making ability.
    Yeah Hank, I agree..... and don't forget his mea culpa on GE last year, too. But he strikes me as a fairly grounded person and not exactly comfortable doing interviews (TV, anyway) so we'll see.
    I suspect you're right that investors will see Giroux' name and rush into the ETF thinking it's a magic wand. Time will tell.
  • TCAF, an ETF Cousin of Closed Price PRWCX
    +1
    In fairness, I don’t anticipate TRP doing that. What I see is investors chasing performance and the fund has been hot and attracting interest / money for a long time now. And Giroux, for better or worse, has claimed a lofty perch next to Gabelli, Cohen and other rock stars in Barron’s “Roundtable” two years running. I was a bit surprised he was invited back a second time in light of a couple of his early 2022 calls. Specifically a fondness for AMZ (which tanked shortly thereafter) plus a prediction the 10-year wouldn’t end the year above 3% - or some silly number. One wonders if that kind of fame and public scrutiny helps, harms, or has no effect on a manager’s psyche and decision making ability.
  • Heading for Recession? Two WSJ Reports
    Also helping Europe is an accelerated shift to renewables as well as an offsetting return to coal.
    European Union leaders said the war has had a silver lining in terms of moving the bloc forward on targets for renewable energy. Countries that were previously reluctant to get on board with expanding renewables are finally doing so, and those on the wagon are investing more. As a result, as part of its REPowerEU package, the EU agreed to increase its targets for renewable energy to 45 percent by 2030 this week, up from a prior target of 40 percent. (The EU gets just over 20 percent of its total energy from renewables right now.) A new report from the International Energy Agency suggests the world could add as much renewable energy in the next five years as it did in the last 20 years.
    ...
    But you can’t make silver without getting some dross. In an effort to replace Russian oil and gas in the short term, countries like Germany are reactivating some old coal-fired power plants to fill the energy gap. Countries including France, Austria, the Netherlands, and Italy are putting mothballed coal plants back into service. And EU countries are negotiating long-term contracts for gas with countries like Qatar, which policymakers said could ultimately lock these countries into buying more gas than they hope to need by the time 2030 rolls around.
    https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/21/europe-russia-energy-climate-change-policy-renewable/
    See also World Economic Forum, Can Europe’s rush for renewables solve its energy crisis?, Feb 10, 2023.
    https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/02/eu-renewables-energy-crisis/
    Second, G7 recently issued an exception on G7-ban to Japan because it needs oil badly - so 6 more exceptions to go?
    Does Japan really need oil badly?
    [Japanese] Government data released on Thursday [Jan 19, 2023] showed that oil imports from Russia fell around 56% last year, while coal imports were reduced by 41%.
    But imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) were up more than 4% in 2022.
    Sakhalin-1 produces oil, while Sakhalin-2 produces both crude and LNG, and experts say access to Russian gas is what Japan is most concerned about protecting.
    Last year, 9.5% of Japan’s total LNG imports came from Russia, up from 8.8% in 2021 — most of it from Sakhalin-2.
    So when Japan joined a price cap on Russian oil last year with its G7 allies, the European Union and Australia, it obtained an exemption for Sakhalin-2.
    https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/sakhalin-exception-the-russian-energy-japan-cant-quit/
    Japan has almost no fossil fuel of its own and relies on imported natural gas and coal for much of its electricity.
    ...
    “It’s not as if Japan can’t manage without this. They can. They simply don’t want to,” said James Brown, a professor at Temple University’s Japan campus. Prof. Brown, who studies Russia-Japan relations, said Japan should move to withdraw from the Sakhalin projects eventually “if they’re really serious about supporting Ukraine.”
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-breaks-with-u-s-allies-buys-russian-oil-at-prices-above-cap-1395accb
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation
    My old ( 30 years) retirement account at VOYA has ITCSX ( TPR Capital Appreciation Pt SVC) open and available at least to existing accounts.
    I don't have a lot of money in this account, but might add to ITCSX at next market swoon.
    Still law of big numbers makes his previous outperformance harder to continue
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation
    There is also another means to start a position. An existing investor can transfer 1 unit into the account of a new investor and voila new investor can now build a position.
    I don't know if PRWCX or TRAIX have minimums on the retail side, the entry path I described worked a few years back for RIA managed accounts.
  • Will TikTok Ban Kill Tech M&A and Be a Patriot Act 2.0 ?
    An interesting take on the new Restrict Act opening a back door way of digital surveillance and prevent tech mergers https://salon.com/2023/04/02/patriot-act-on-steroids-left-and-right-unite-against-fear-mongering-tiktok-ban/
    An excerpt:
    That doesn't appear to square with the actual language of the bill. Although most of its legislative language is clearly geared toward controlling corporate mergers — and giving the president a new tool that can force a foreign company to divest itself of U.S. interests — there's no specific provision that protects individual users of banned websites or software. Instead, it would give an appointed presidential committee the power to make new rules and enforce them, with little oversight.
    How could those new powers pose a threat to individual users? First, there's a real possibility that, according to the current version, an individual user could face criminal charges for downloading or accessing banned content, such as through the use of a virtual private network. Depending on the appetite for enforcement, the penalties could include up to 20 years in prison for using a VPN to access a banned site — and, in some interpretations, up to $1,000,000 in fines.
    Another threat is the lack of transparency and accountability the bill grants the appointed committee that would decide which apps to ban. The lack of judicial review and reliance on Patriot Act-like surveillance powers could open the door to unjustified targeting of individuals or groups….
    ….Across its 55 pages, the Restrict Act offers a lot of winding, tricky language with room for broad interpretation. Concerns are emerging about how the bill could threaten civil liberties and First Amendment rights, especially considering its vague language, lack of oversight for sweeping new executive (not elected) authorities, and the secretive nature of the FISA courts, which rule on a range of intelligence and surveillance cases.
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation
    Just correct PRWCX’s asset base in dollar term, $47.6billion! Over the years many funds including Fidelity Magellan, Contra, and Low-priced stocks funds slowed down in their performance when their asset base gotten into billion $.
  • 30-year Tips Article by William Bernstein
    I agree with you on the illiquidity aspects as well as the complete destruction in 2008. Part of the problem then and up until last one or two years has been that Deflation has been the monster in the room. Even a month ago, as recession fears increased with the SVB fiasco and banking crisis, TIPS underperformed Nominals and breakeven were down to 2.03%. This time though, at least on the economic front, we might be dealing with Inflation, and not deflation. Yet, I fully agree, your points hold. No free lunch. It is part of a portfolio of bonds I carry - holding TIPS alone would be suicidal. The one reason I do tend to encourage a conversation on TIPS is because many folks have not generally held inflation linked bonds, find them complex to understand. These government bonds do deserve a deep look.
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation
    Great article that summarizes David Giruox’s many interviews he gave in last several years. In light of this large asset base ($47.4) fund, he manages to move and to execute very well in his portfolio in order to deliver this remarkable results over the tenure as the fund manager.
    [snip]
    PRWCX has generated exemplary performance (risk/reward) during David Giroux's tenure.
    Mr. Giroux seems to have an uncanny ability to deftly position the PRWCX portfolio
    to take advantage of opportunities that others overlook.