Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)

yogibearbull

Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly

(Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2023/Q1 and YTD to 3/31/23)

Pg L3: After lagging for several years, the INTERNATIONAL/GLOBAL funds are relatively cheap (value cheaper than growth) and may outperform. Use risk control strategies – lower SDs, favorable U/D CR, etc. For the US investors in foreign funds, a strong DOLLAR has been a headwind. OEFs: AIVBX, BISAX, FISMX, FMIJX, GQGPX, RNWOX, SGENX, SIGIX, TBGVX; ETFs: ACWV, EFA, EFAV, EFG, EFV, EEM, HDG, HEFA, VIGI. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)

Pg L8: The US-China DECOUPLING will take a while. China has also been tough on its big techs. But small-caps have escaped the watchful eyes of the Chinese government. OEFs: FHKCX, MCDFX, MCHFX, MCSMX, RNWOX, SIGIX, SGOVX; ETFs: ASHR, CHIQ, CNYA, CQQQ, CXSE, EWH, FXI, GXC, KBA, KWEB, MCHI, PGJ. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)

Pg L9: GROWTH funds are rebounding, but be selective. Some former big techs have fallen off the growth wagon and some energy companies have joined. Large-cap growth (IVW, MGK, RPG, SCHG) has been outperforming small/mid-cap growth (IJT, RZG). The OEFs mentioned are HCAIX, TRBCX, VWIGX.

EXTRA: FAITH-BASED funds cover a wide variety and several are rebounding. Vatican published its investment guidelines in November 2022 that also included responsible ESG. Private direct-indexing is a growing area. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)

Fund news from elsewhere in Barron’s (Forthcoming Part 2).

Pg 13, FUNDS. MUNI MONEY-MARKET funds (tax-exempt) with near juicy 4% yields are attractive. This is a tiny area with $130 billion AUM only vs $500 billion AUM pre-GFC-2008, and $5 trillion AUM for taxable money-market funds. These invest in floating-rate munis (VRDNs) that reset rates weekly according to the SIFMA rates. Typically, the SIFMA rates are 40-80% of (taxable) fed fund rates, but they are elevated now due to redemptions to pay taxes (so, these high rates may not last beyond April). These funds partner with BANKS to provide daily and weekly liquidity guarantees. By definition, their DURATION is considered to be the rate reset period regardless of the maturities of the underlying munis (so, don’t get alarmed when looking at their holdings and maturities). Mentioned are FTEXX / FTCXX, SWTXX, VMSXX, VTMXX. (Their overall structure and rate resetting process seem complicated and may have unknown risks)

Pg 24, INCOME INVESTING. Selected REITs are attractive after their recent battering. Their earnings have been cut but the SP5500 earnings remain OK (so, the REITs client companies are doing fine). A FED pause will benefit the REITs, but RECESSION won’t, so it’s time only to nibble in REITs. Attractive REITs are industrial (PLD, ADC, GLPI), residential, self-storage, data-centers. Avoid REITs for offices and malls (big/regional or strip/local). Several publicly traded REITs are more attractive than private real estate (that suffer from lagging mark-to-market; negative news on monthly/quarterly redemption limits for several nontraded-REITs).

Pg L33: In 2023/Q1 (SP500 +7.50%): Among general equity funds, best were LC-growth +13.52%, multi-cap-growth +11.35%, and worst were small-cap-value +0.77%, mid-cap-value +0.84%, equity-income +0.95%; ALL general equity categories were positive AGAIN. Among other equity funds, the best were sc & tech +18.80%, telecom +11.66%, global large-cap-growth +11.10%, and worst were financials -7.77%. Among fixed-income funds, domestic long-term FI +2.55%, world income +2.96%; ALL FI categories were positive too AGAIN (FI isn’t very refined in Lipper mutual fund categories listed in Barron’s). So, good 2022/Q4 (value shined) & 2023/Q1 (LC growth shined).
LINK

thundley459

Thanks for posting this summary.

Sven

Excellent article by @LewisBraham.

————
Addition: Similar thought process to LB for long term investment philosophy. Currently we invest in several funds mentioned for a number of years. We are fortunate to found Andrew Foster when he was running at Matthews Asia Growth & Income fund. Today we invest in both Seafarer funds. In April’s commentary @davidSnowball presented a detailed profile on Seafarer Oversea Value fund.

We also invest with Patrick English’s team, FMIJX, a risk-adverse abd USD-hedged oversea fund.

Observant1

Sven said:

Excellent article by @LewisBraham.

His article titled "It’s the Right Time to Invest Overseas..." was very good.
Link (Paywall)

hank

Interesting “Up & Down Wall Street” column this week written by Andy Serwer (whom I can’t recall ever reading before). Writes with a nice flair.

Extended excerpt: “To my mind, Dimon is essentially making the point that no amount of regulation can ever anticipate or mitigate humankind's ability to make mistakes and get into trouble—intentionally or not. And that got me thinking about John Maynard Keynes and his notion of animal spirits:

‘Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as a result of animal spirits—of a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.’

In other words, we human beings act irrationally, which makes for bursts of creativity in the arts and, yes, even on Wall Street, but inevitably precipitates overexuberance in capital markets and bank runs. It also means that there is probably some limit on the marginal utility of incremental units of regulation, I suppose.” *
-

Put in that context, the recent bank run has the scent of the great toilet paper run of only a few years ago. Both an outgrowth of human irrationality. Now, which inflicted more hardship?

*Source: Barron’s April 9, 2023 (Print Edition)

yogibearbull

Andy Serwer is a heavy hitter hired by Barron's in January 2023. Since then, he has already done several feature stories, 1 cover story, and, yes, this week is his shot at the Up and Down Wall Street.

Andy Serwer's Barron's Stories https://www.barrons.com/authors/andy-serwer?mod=article_byline

Press Release https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/01/30/2597513/0/en/Andy-Serwer-Joins-Barron-s-as-Editor-at-Large.html

hank

Thanks Yogi. Can’t confirm - but I get the impression Forsyth enjoys time away from that duty. It’s a demanding role. Must take a toll on one over time.

PS - The (alleged) comments Serwer attributes to NYC real estate magnates comparing their professional lives today as existing inside a “fishbowl” or “goat rodeo” are hilarious..

And then there’s Jack Hough: “My car seems to be beating the stock market.” - LOL

Hough’s whole article is a riot. Worth the price of the publication alone … Well, also somber if you’re in the market for a new car. New car prices are up 21% since September 2020. (Used car prices even more.) “Sub-$20,000 models” are “nearly extinct” - with those priced at under $25,000 “next in line” for extinction.

Agree with others - it’s an excellent article on International Funds by @LewisBraham. Very extensive and comprehensive look at opportunities in various corners of the international markets and the related trade-offs.

LewisBraham

Thanks everyone, for your kind remarks. One thing I’ve tried to do—though it’s not always possible—is think long-term. How a fund plays defense via risk control seems essential to me to think about if you’re a long-term investor.

MikeM

How a fund plays defense via risk control seems essential to me to think about if you’re a long-term investor.

Thank you, @LewisBraham. I enjoyed your article over coffee this morning. I agree totally with your sentiments above and I was happy to see a couple of the funds I own on your list that fit that bill for me, FMIJX which I've owned for over a decade and a more recent addition bought last year, RNWOX.