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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • This Day in Markets History
    From Markets A.M. newsletter by Spencer Jakab.
    On this day in 1929, Yale professor Irving Fisher, one of the nation’s foremost economists, said:
    “The breaks of the past few days have driven stocks down to hard rock.
    I believe that we will have a ragged market for a few weeks
    and then the beginning of a mild bull movement that will gain momentum next year.”
    The Great Crash was days away and stocks stayed ragged for years.
    Note: Mr. Fisher famously stated that "stock prices have reached 'what looks like a permanently high plateau.'"¹
    ¹ Fisher's quote appeared in the October 16, 1929 edition of the New York Times.
    He made the comment in a speech at a monthly dinner for the Purchasing Agents Association.
  • Any Permanent Portfolio heads here?
    @rono dates back to Fund Alarm 20 years or more ago (and I think he participated in a predecessor to that fine board). Yes, he’s been a proponent of PRPFX since those days. And knows the metals better than anyone here. Wrote a daily column ”Asia and the metals” for a long time on the FA site.
    Re PRPFX - I no longer own, but watch it daily. Thought it would lose more than it did yesterday. Not only gold & silver, but also the Swiss Franc which it holds were down. Interestingly, real estate has held up very well the past few days. Might have helped the fund yesterday, along with some of the tech giants it owns.
  • Debt Bubble???
    Howdy folks,
    Great discussion. I too am searching for safer assets. The debt issue is not going away. US official is $39T. Ah, but the Unfunded Liabilities are over $120T [Social Security, Medicare, caid, gov't pensions and various 'trusts'. ] Only two ways to deal with this - break promises or devalue the currency. I read one article where they estimated the dollar would have to be devalued by 75% over the next ten years. This is all part of the debasement problem worldwide. Where do we hide?
    Asset classes - hard assets, precious metals, crypto, real assets (house, farm, land, etc.), quality corporate paper, and as mentioned, utilities. I'm big on owning a piece of my various vendors. Currency and bonds? I'm guessing an int'l market basket. Follow the foreign central banks on their debasement strategies and trades. Oh, and it ain't the dollar, BTW.
    Just some ramblings,
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    rono
  • Any Permanent Portfolio heads here?
    Howdy,
    I own PRPFX in several accounts for both me and wifey. I've owned it for over 20 years. It serves as a teddy bear.
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    rono
  • Debt Bubble???
    In our accumulation phase we "experimented" with quite an assortment of real-estate exposure. Of structured commercial reit-type investments, all but one were real losers.
    However, we were very fortunate to have been associated with a number of directly-managed real estate ventures, which turned out to be quite rewarding. The first involved the sale of our first home in SF, and the move to our present home. The sale of our first home was well above our expectation, leaving us with a decent amount to reinvest. And along came an invitation from an old friend with a lot of real estate experience to-
    Join in partnership with him and his wife to buy a well-located four-unit apartment house in San Francisco. The four of us really learned the hard way about the work required and the human-relation aspects (trauma?) of renting to other people. The four of us did all of the maintenance and repair on the four units, and we all worked our butts off. The property value steeply appreciated, and we sold after about four years at a significant profit. That profit, in turn, provided us with dry powder in later real-estate opportunities.
    By then I was working as the manager of a small-appliance repair station- one of a dozen or so owned by an Oakland, CA family. Strictly by luck, the family corporate offices were co-located with my operation, and I became very close to the company treasurer, who was a son of the business founding family.
    An opportunity came when the building in which our San Jose operation was located came up for sale. My wife and I were invited to partner in purchasing that property, which had a locked-in tenant, as it was a company operation. Again, we enjoyed good income from that investment, and again, the partnership was dissolved and the property sold for a very good profit some years later.
    By then, I was working as a radio technician at 911, which was located in the SF "Hall of Justice". That building was also SF police headquarters, and there I met and worked with a fair number of police personnel. Along came a police detective who frequently partnered with a real-estate operator in funding second-mortgages. Again, we were invited to join in that operation, and again, we did very well income-wise.
    The surplus income from all of those situations was invested in various American Funds, which as they grew became our prime source of investment appreciation and income for many years.
    Anyone who thinks pure luck isn't a major factor in getting through life just has no clue.
  • Debt Bubble???
    @Crash said “Real Estate?”
    Real estate is an interesting idea. I’ve toyed with it - but no significant investment at present. Real estate investments (REITS, OEFs, ETFs, CEFs) take very different paths because it’s such a diverse area. Do you want to focus on residential single family, multi-family developments, mobile home parks, hotels, farmland, retail or commercial storage or office complexes?
    That last one (offices) has been a bit of a dog since Covid as many workers learned they prefer to work from home. Tech companies helped enable that shift. Jamie Diamond recently opened a beautiful new J.P. Morgan facility in NYC (here) he hopes will help bring back / retain workers. He’s known to believe more gets done in collaboration on site than remotely.. The new complex has gym facilities, upscale restaurants and a pub for after hours. Sounds splendid.
    I’ll mention I’ve been very happy for several years with Cohen & Steers. I’ve got sizable stakes in RAPAX and LPXAX. The first one has plenty of real estate exposure as that’s an area where they have a lot of experience. Some of their CEFs are good provided you know when to get in and when to get out.
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    Where I notice this is when I buy something I hadn’t bought is a year or two. Used to throw 4 oz cans of mushrooms into a lot different dishes. Then stopped for no particular reason. I remember them being well under a dollar (49 - 69 cents for a small can). But the other day a couple cans of a store brand cost me $1.59 each.
    I just checked Walmart’s price (about the cheapest in town) and their store brand is selling for $1.50 / Multiply that kind of hike in 3 or 4 years across all the foods you buy and you get some serious inflation. ISTM the example is quite typical and not an outlier. Reflected in the price is labor, transportation, store overhead, etc.
    Not worried about self at the moment. Financially well off. But there are many less fortunate struggling to survive. That’s what I worry about. Followed @Mark’s fine example recently and gifted a sum to family members I know are in need.
    I’ll stay out of politics. An economy is like a super tanker. A lot of elements propel it and changing direction takes a long time. But I’ll agree the current regime is contributing. The removal of laborers from the workforce is part of the issue. And pushing for a more reckless ”accommodative” Fed doesn’t help & may be fueling the price hikes as a way to get out in front. It’s certainly contributing to gold’s vertical climb.
    Oh - If you missed it … Average U.S. New Car Price Surpasses $50,000—An All-Time High
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    Other foods are undergoing stagflation shrinkflation. . .. The box size got smaller while selling at the same price. Costco’s famous rotisserie chicken turned into game hen is the latest Costco tactic. The full impact of tariffs has yet to arrive. Perhaps Christmas time, and the young kids will get fewer toys than previous years. What’s wrong with that? So said Bessent,the nice guy.
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    Following is a current report from The Guardian:
    US consumers say price rises caused by president’s tariffs contradict his promise to make life more affordable
    As a mother of two, Paige Harris has noticed a change in the way she shops for her family. “Items that I have bought regularly have gone up in price steadily,” she said. “From hair dye to baby formula, our grocery list has gotten smaller while our budget has had to increase. Meats like steak are a no-go for our household.”
    Harris, 38, lives and works as a teacher’s assistant in Stella, North Carolina, and is one of almost 40 people who spoke to the Guardian about how they’ve been coping with the price of goods in the six months since Donald Trump announced his sweeping tariffs.
    On Thursday, a study from S&P Global revealed that companies were expected to pay at least $1.2tn more in 2025 expenses than was previously anticipated. But the burden, according to the researchers, is now shifting to US consumers. They calculated that two-thirds of the “expense shock”, more than $900bn, will be absorbed by Americans. Last month, the Yale Budget Lab estimated tariffs would cost households almost $2,400 more a year.
    Harris says the tariffs’ impact on her daily life contradicts promises from the Trump administration to “cut prices and make living affordable for everyone”. She said: “You see prices soaring. It has become very clear that this administration did not and does not care about the everyday lives of Americans.”
    Several Americans told the Guardian their weekly budgets had been drastically altered with the introduction of Trump’s tariffs. “Prices are way too high. I mostly shop at Costco and buy as little as possible anywhere else,” said Jean Meadows, a 74-year-old retiree who lives in Huntsville, Alabama. “I can’t imagine that stores haven’t noticed the change. I think people are really afraid of what is coming.”
    That sense of apprehension is reflected in a recent poll, exclusively conducted for the Guardian, where respondents identified the tariffs as the second biggest threat to the economy. “The bread I buy has doubled in price within a year. We live on a fixed income that doesn’t keep up with inflation,” said Myron Peeler, who is also retired and is the sole caregiver for his wife, who suffers from debilitating arthritis. The only saving grace, he said, is that his house and car are paid off.
    Trump shows few signs of backing away from his tariff policy – a move the White House maintains will reinvigorate American manufacturing and increased revenue from trade partners.
    Most recently, the president reignited a trade war with China by threatening a 100% tariff on Beijing as soon as November. This came after China moved to restrict exports of rare earth minerals needed for several everyday items from electric vehicle batteries to hospital equipment, a decision that Trump branded as “very hostile”. In an interview with Fox News, the president has admitted that the proposed tariff hike was “not sustainable”, but said he was left with little choice: “They forced me to do that”.
    Currently, the average US tariffs on Chinese exports hovers around 58%, according to the Peterson Institute for Economics. It’s a levy that is already taking a toll on Americans such as Michele, from north-eastern Pennsylvania. “We need to buy new tires for a car, and can’t, because affordable tires are no longer in stock and we can’t afford $250 a tire,” she said.
    Several people echoed Michele’s feelings about availability, describing the situation as “empty shelves, higher prices”. Natalie, who lives in New Hampshire, said she hasn’t seen certain pantry staples “for months”. She said: “The store shelves have become more and more bare … instead of multiple choices there may only be one or two, and name brands are being replaced by store brands.”
    At 55, Natalie is semi-retired but is due to start part-time work at a supermarket, and she has seen a price rise in nearly everything she buys regularly. “Any brand of cat food has increased anywhere from 25% to double the price. One wet food my cats like went from $1.79 to $2.49 per can,” she said.
    The new normal many Americans are bracing for, or already feeling, is not just the cost of groceries, for those such as Minnie, a food writer in Portland, Oregon, it’s a change in lifestyle. “I don’t shop for non-essentials. No fall shopping trips for a new sweater or jeans. And we’ll make all our Christmas presents this year,” said Minnie, 55. “We used to dine out once a week. Now we never eat out. Even fast-casual is insanely pricey. Everything is twice what it used to cost and we’re very afraid of what’s next, financially speaking.”
    While the US inflation rate hovers around 2.9% – a substantial drop from the spikes of the Covid era – the tariffs haven’t helped ease the impact on Americans’ wallets. Richard Ulmer, 81, who has lived in Florida for 35 years, said this year has been “the worst from a financial standpoint”, adding that “everything” from his groceries to the electric bill has become more expensive.
    For Cassie, a 25-year-old consultant based in Siler City, North Carolina, costs have shot up quickly compared to the “gradual price increases” during the first two years of the pandemic. Cassie has a strict $65 per week budget for groceries, but since Trump first announced his tariffs, she’s been priced out of her normal routine, which included doing most of her weekly shopping at Walmart.
    “Now I must visit at least four different stores in the area and other towns, often driving longer distances to find the best prices,” she said. “During the summer months and the Mexico/Latin America tariff announcement, Walmart and other stores in the area ran out of bananas for around two weeks. No one could get bananas in my area.”
  • "Auto loan delinquencies are soaring"
    Securitized AAA isn't the same as genuine AAA (only 2 companies).
    There is a difference between securitized and structured.
    Securitized debt is debt created when a financial institution pools multiple loans together and issues its own debt instrument backed by the payment streams of these loans. Because of this backing, you're not relying strictly upon the soundness of the issuing institution (the one that pooled the loans together). You have the "security" of knowing that there's an income stream providing the cash to service the secured debt.
    When it comes to a GNMA bond it is the US government pooling the mortgages together. You're really relying upon the soundness of the issuer (full faith and credit of the Treasury), not the underlying mortgages. Since you're relying upon a AA+ rated institution (the US Treasury), these securitized GNMAs (bonds or funds) get only a AA rating.
    If it's the Canadian government (AAA rated) creating an MBS, the bond is AAA rated. See ZMBS (Canadian MBS ETF, 100% AAA rated holdings).
    By the time you drop down to nonagency MBSs, you're relying as much on the underlying mortgage payments as the soundness of the financial institution issuing the securitized debt.
    Same idea with securitized debt backed by a pool of loans other than mortgages (e.g. car loans). They're as safe or as risky as their underlying loans. No vanilla securitized debt issued by a US financial institution will be AAA rated. The issuer isn't AAA rated and the underlying bonds aren't AAA rated.
    Structured debt builds upon securitized debt. Instead of treating the security as homogenized debt, it stratifies that debt, somewhat like a centrifuge separates different layers of a solution.
    image
    In most cases, when there's a default with a debt, it isn't a 100% loss. A payment may be simply be late. Or even in the case of bankruptcy, rarely does a bond fail to pay off at least a few pennies on the dollar. If you could skim off those few pennies and leave other investors getting nothing, that would leave you in good shape.
    Even better if you could get the other investors to give you whatever income they're getting from the underlying bonds still making payments in order to keep you whole. Your risk is decreased and the others' risk is increased. This "centrifuging" of risk is what structuring does.
    Since the creation of CLOs thirty years ago, not a single AAA tranche has defaulted. (That beats AAA corporate record of 0.52% cumulative default over ten years.) Hartford (admittedly an interested party) estimates that 87% of a CLO's portfolio would have to default before the principal of AAA tranches was affected.
    Which brings us full circle to auto loans.
    Among CLOs that hold [First Brands'] loans, the median concentration of First Brands is a relatively modest 0.5% of collateral. CLO structures limit concentrations of assets from any single obligor. ... CLOs as a class have a relatively low exposure to the auto sector (just 1.5 percent of collateral).
    https://www.privatedebtinvestor.com/first-brands-group-bankruptcy-two-rating-firms-say-dont-panic/
    “securitized “. You gotta go outta your way to avoid that stuff.
    Still, that's easy to do. M* has a category called "corporate bonds". Lipper (which MFO uses) has "corporate debt A" and "corporate debt BBB". Both classifications miss funds like VWEHX (high yield), but they're good places to start. I'm willing to live with a modest amount of securitized debt in my bond fund(s) if they are actively managed and I have confidence that the manager is keeping an eye on risk.
    Edit: Didn't see WABAC's post until after I posted this. Writing these tomes takes more than a couple of minutes.
    Dodix ,,, over 37% securitized
    If you're getting this from M*, take a closer look. M* doesn't have portfolio data for DODIX. M* says that the sole holding of DODIX is ... DODIX. And the breakdown it shows is for the fund category, not for this fund. OTOH, the actual percentage (as of Sept 30th) was 53.1%(!), including 1.3% in Ford Motor Credit Company.
    https://www.dodgeandcox.com/individual-investor/us/en/investing/our-funds/income-fund.html?share-class=class-i
    On the third hand, back on March 31st (the latest date I can find grouped holdings) auto loans constituted 2.2% of the portfolio, while about 2/5 was in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
    It was the poor performance of the loans in these “private-label” securities—those not owned or guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie—that led to the financial meltdown, according to the bipartisan Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, among other independent researchers.
    https://www.americanprogress.org/article/7-things-you-need-to-know-about-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac/ (2012)
  • Why Gold Will Lose Its Luster
    There was no looking back for gold after the events in 2022. Investors with gold holdings or those who caught the trade in 2022 (and since) have made lot of money.
    I’ve always liked gold. But at this point, for those with shorter time horizons, I consider it a better short than long position. We’ll see where it’s priced 3 years out. Won’t necessarily “lose its luster”. Will forever be beautiful to look at and may satisfy some people’s need to hedge against uncertainty - despite the price.
  • Why Gold Will Lose Its Luster
    If I could find an inverse 1X etf I’d have a small short on gold, precious metals ot miners, But the few available appear only to be 2X and 3X.
    Attempted to buy DGZ at open yesterday, but it’s a weird animal. Didn’t go through. I should have saved the pop-up note from Fido. Something about only being able to purchase this one after day’s trading close. Obviously, it’s something other than an ETF. Morningstar shows it having only a few $Mil AUM.
    Gold may run a lot higher still. At some point (next few years) I believe it will retrace to $3500, if not lower. I remember buying a bit at $800-$850 when I was very young and selling it 3 or 4 years later at around $400. Folks should be very carful playing the mining funds. There have been periods when some shed more than 50-60% over very short 2-3 year periods. That was sometime before 2015 which is about as far back as some trackers show. At Yahoo, you should be able to pull up OPGSX a long way back and see what could happen.
    Some issues I have with gold at these prices: (1) The rapid recent rate of appreciation. Does anyone really think we’re headed for 30, 40 or 50% annual inflation? That would seem to be what this “inflation hedge” is implying. (2) If worried about the dollar, there are funds that invest in foreign currencies & local debt. Yes, you might lose money, but the risk isn’t as high as for gold. Broad base commodities are also an option. (3) Where will you spend your gold (if you’re hoarding the physical stuff)? To carry an ounce down the street at $4000+ an ounce you’d better be well armed and wearing a bullet proof vest. Do I need $4,000 in my pocket to shop? You can still buy a perfectly fine bottle of single malt for under $100.
  • Starting a new thread: Bloomberg Real Yield. (Begin, 08/08/25) Hiatus starts 21 Nov. '25
    17 Oct, '25: Scarlet Fu hosts again. After all these years, still delicious. Not much that's terribly news-y, to my mind.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-10-17/real-yield-10-17-2025-video
  • I guess he didn’t learn from liberation day!
    @FD100 - Why hasn’t some big mutual fund company snatched you up yet to run some of their funds? I’d imagine you could make David Giroux look like a rank amateur. Quite amazing TRP hasn’t lured you in with a big singing bonus …
    I retired with enough money to cover our expenses for 25 years, not including SS.
    Then I doubled our portfolio.
    I don't need a job. We have enough for all the good stuff.
    Retirement is the best job I have ever had.
    Many investors still haven't learned the lesson, stop investing based on politics and complaining about it.
  • At what tax rate do Muni bond funds become attractive?

    as someone with below avg state taxes, i shifted my largest asset class from short-term active bond funds to tax-free analogs, over the past ~12 months.
    - wanted to simplify\avoid as many stealth taxes , as these have high step functions which are harder to keep track of triggering.
    - wanted an asset haven from direct gop grift\nonsense over the next 3+ years, which was made final when attempts failed in budget.
    - wanted an opportune window for 1-2 large roth conversions.
    although somewhat offset by higher rates in money mkt - type funds, i believe the simplicity of only having 1-2 taxfree funds will be a realized. even this slow shift has garnered a much lower running rate for taxable income.
  • At what tax rate do Muni bond funds become attractive?
    I held several muni bond funds while interest rates were very low and they were worthwhile, even when my marginal tax rate was only 12%. Since interest rates spiked several years ago, I sold all of my muni funds because their yields couldn’t compete with taxable alternatives, even when our tax rate increased to 22%. Even with the decline in interest rates this year, muni fund yields still can’t compete with yields from taxable alternatives such as bond funds, short term bonds, CDs, Treasuries, you name it. Are muni funds only worthwhile for investors in higher tax brackets (eg, higher than 24%)?
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Tiny starter position in ETF EWS. Singapore stuff, mostly. But not exclusively. Weak dollar. Singapore is solid. Decided to buy a basket of stuff, this time, rather than a single stock. 3.7% dividend. Paid June, Dec.
    https://www.barrons.com/market-data/funds/ews?mod=searchresults_companyquotes&mod=searchbar&search_keywords=ews&search_statement_type=suggested
    good call ... that's been on my overseas watchlist as well. Their top holding is a solid bank in AsiaPac and I'm familiar with or held some of their other holdings over the years, too.
  • CMS freezes Medicare pay to doctors amid shutdown, October 15, 2025 9PM, EST
    I can't remember all of them but during previous shutdowns, I am sure our practice was not paid for some of them.
    Medicare was almost as bad a payor to work with as Trump. They would always delay the late September check to push it into the next fiscal year. They were more prompt than the commercial insurances, but had the right to audit a small fraction of your chart visits ( say 10) and if they found 2 miscoded, would demand a check for 205 of those revenues paid over the last three years on the spot.
    They spent a lot of money torturing small practices over junk like this but for some reason could never catch huge practices that were billing millions fraudulently. An ophthalmologist in Florida would use 1/2 of a vial to treat one eye, and open another vial to treat the other eye, and bill Medicare for both vials. Why they couldn't catch that one I will never understand.
  • China's Rare Earth Restrictions
    FYI, here is an excerpt from an interesting article in today's The NYT on how "the Chinese government flexed its own influence over worldwide supply chains when it announced new rules clamping down on the flow of critical minerals that are used in everything from computer chips to cars to missiles":
    "Over the past three years, Washington has claimed broad power to impose global rules that bar companies anywhere in the world from sending cutting-edge computer chips or the tools needed to make them to China. American officials have argued that approach is necessary to make sure China does not gain the upper hand in the race for advanced artificial intelligence.
    But a sweeping set of restrictions announced by Beijing last week showed that two can play that game.
    The rules, which are set to take effect later this year, shocked foreign governments and businesses, which may now need to acquire licenses from Beijing to trade their products even outside China.
    With its dominance over the production of these rare earth minerals and its control of other strategic industries, China may have an even greater ability than the United States to weaponize supply chains, analysts say.
    “The U.S. now has to face up to the fact it has an adversary which can threaten substantial parts of the U.S. economy,” said Henry Farrell, a political scientist at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. The United States and China are now very clearly “in a much more delicate stage of mutual interdependence,” he added.
    “China has really begun to figure out how to take a leaf from the U.S. playbook and in a certain sense play that game better than the U.S. is currently playing it,” Mr. Farrell said.
    The administration seemed caught off guard by China’s restrictions, which could cripple American industries. Mr. Trump threatened on Friday to cancel a planned meeting with the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, as well as adding a 100 percent tariff. After stock markets plunged, the president posted on social media on Sunday, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!”
    The United States and China are each leveraging a supply chain that the other has struggled for years to boost domestically. But while China has spent billions on its chip industry, spurring the growth of its own chipmakers, the United States could need years to restart rare earth production.
    “If China is able to get around the chip restrictions but it takes the U.S. longer to get around the rare earths controls, that’s going to be a big problem for the United States,” said Martin Chorzempa, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics."
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Side sleeper also. That pain in the bones shoots right through you late at night or upon waking. Not any one area. Legs. Arms. Whatever. Enough to make you scream. Nearing 80. Guess that older smaller bed will have to do until figure this one out. Both shoulders been really sore for months. Arthritis I think. Had a cortisone injection in one a couple months ago. Some relief. I bought a tube of Diclofenac Gel from Amazon recently. Slopped it on both shoulders the other night and most of the pain has gone away. Seems to last a while. Quite amazing.
    @Old_Joe. No, the bed didn’t come from the pillow guy! :) Funny - the (real) wood frame of that smaller bed I’m using now was purchased about 45 years ago at a Montgomery Ward store downstate where I worked back then. Who woulda thunk it would last all those years? Outlasted “Monkey Ward” by a mile. Newer isn’t always better.