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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Proposed Budget
    The next time a democrat is elected what stops them from closing all these things down and redirecting the money like is happening now with green initiatives, infrastructure etc... ? It's the price of such a divided country, wasting money on the others priorities rather than figuring out where to compromise for the good of the nation. Spend a lot on X then the next admin shuts that down and spends on Y. Back and forth. There has to a lot of waste in that.
    Yes, I see what you mean. Polarized politics. There used to be a reasonableness, dealing with those across the aisle. Republicans are all but extinct; it's all Repugnants in charge by now. And the Demublicans have been actually tacking to the Right since the Clinton years, apart from the Woke Squad. (Though Obamacare is a positive development.) The Orange One is clearly a usurper. Hopefully, some semblance of normalcy will return when he's done. Is he dead yet?
  • The Proposed Budget
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/trump-bill-house-republicans-pass-what-know-rcna208488
    A debt limit hike
    "The bill is projected by the CBO to add $2.3 trillion to the federal deficit over 10 years, with the tax breaks and new expenditures far outweighing the savings.
    It also raises the debt ceiling by $4 trillion ahead of a summer deadline announced by the Treasury Department for Congress to act or risk a catastrophic default. "
    Oh, and he wants his name on the tax accounts for Children for which folks receive a lousy $1K (bold added):
    Trump accounts
    "The measure creates new tax-preferred savings accounts for children that the federal government seeds with a $1,000 deposit. Parents could then contribute an additional $5,000 annually until the child is 18. The money can be used for educational purposes, for a down payment for a home or to start a small business.
    The original version of House Republicans' legislation called them "MAGA" accounts, but after an eleventh-hour amendment, they were renamed 'Trump" accounts."
  • The Proposed Budget
    Thanks @Old_Joe
    Watching the Senate now, eh?
    I'll add this for now for whomever one may consider the words apply to; today, in 6 months or 2 years or ???
    CRAZY
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1

    although trump would happily take credit for the ~200 years of american exceptionalism, and MAGA would grant it to him, i was simply repeating the 'logic' used by the gop during the prior credit downgrade and notably absent this time around.
    too subtle i guess.
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    “i don't disagree with gop of 2011 regarding most recent credit downgrade, in particular "...has destroyed the credit rating of the United States through his failed economic policies...".
    Yes - One man in just 4 months in office has completely destroyed the credit rating of a nation that has stood for 248 years, weathered a civil war and emerged victorious from two world wars, survived the great depression, sent men to the moon and back, developed the Space Shuttle, launched Hubble and James Webb, explored Mars, pioneered the technical revolution, has an economy which at $29 trillion GDP is 5 times the size of its nearest competitor Japan and an annual budget in excess of $3 trillion. In just 4 months in office a single man has completely destroyed this nation’s credit rating.
    Makes perfect sense to me.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    For now, yields on long bonds are rising quickly. 20 years treasury is being auction today with 5.0 % yield, an all time high. If the sale does not go well, it will be messy tomorrow. Bond traders are not so happy with the increased deficit from this tax cut bill. If bond market goes, so does the stock market. So we are watching closely.
    Edits: From CNBC at market close:
    The bill could increase the U.S. government's debt by trillions and raise the deficit at a time when fears of a flare-up in inflation due to Trump tariffs are already weighing on bond prices and boosting yields.
    The 30-year Treasury bond yield jumped again Wednesday to hit 5.09%, touching the highest level going back to October 2023. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield traded at 4.59%.

  • Email received from M*
    I do not have alternate access to M* Portfolio Manager but still have free access from years ago.
    You're correct - Morningstar Investing Center does not provide access to Portfolio Manager via the library.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Bought starter in BKSY as a defense play and possible acquisition target.
    Currently stalking a few international utilities and thinking of re-entering AES @ 10.

    My experience with
    ENIC (Enel Chile) was rather a disaster. Just thought I'd mention it.
    I avoid LatAm companies for precisely that reason - I got burned hard w/Petrobras years ago.
    For starters I'm looking at E.ON and Engie in Europe.
  • Email received from M*
    Are you referring to M* Portfolio Manager?
    IIRC, I gained access to Portfolio Manager after creating a free account on the M* website years ago.
    Multiple watchlists for various fund categories were created via the tool and are still monitored today.
    The main purpose of these watchlists is to compare trailing returns within fund categories.
    Note: I don't use Portfolio Manager to monitor the value of my current portfolio.
  • Reality Check 2 - Interesting Inflation Calculator
    This inflation issue has been tossed around (flogged to death) repeatedly here and at FA and everywhere else over the years.
    Some believe the govt. numbers adequately reflect inflation. Many dispute them. There are many variables that enter in. What state / city do you live in? How old are you? Home owner or renter? Taxes where you reside. Even the “official” CPI has undergone revision over the years. So, I was simply trying to get a rough idea of how far a dollar might go today vs 25 years ago. Nothing precise necessary. Just a rough idea. All inflation calculators are valuable and welcome here if people want to share others.
    As I said earlier, our lifestyles are much different today than 25 years ago. Cars and homes today are loaded with electronics that didn’t exist 25 years ago. Think what that does to automobile repair / replacement costs and insurance rates. So, even the “same” purchasing power you had 25 years ago may not afford you the “same” lifestyle in today’s world.
    Try to find a new or used car today without airbags, rear view camera, side-view mirrors or air conditioning.
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    ”Many institutions have (or had) a rule that they could only invest in securities rated AAA by at least two of the big three NRSROs.”
    - What AAA options still exist for these money managers? Some other foreign countries? Some large corporations? I’m not aware there are corporations with better credit quality than the U.S. govt. But may well be wrong here.
    - Also raises an interesting question re holders of zero coupon treasuries sold by certain funds. The underlying premise of those holdings would seem to be undermined.
    (I wish to note that I’m not faulting the Trump administration. Sure, some of their recent actions may have contributed to / exacerbated the loss of faith in the government’s ability to repay debt. But the debt issue has been known / discussed for many years, if not for decades. It’s much more complex than the sound-bites emanating from either party or from pundits - whose views vary greatly - adequately address.)
  • Reality Check 2 - Interesting Inflation Calculator
    Hi hank, I don't know how I could use the calculator to do the math on fluctuating annual investment returns, and that isn't the intention. It's CPI based data only.
    This calculator is very good and simple. I posted this a few years ago. However, this is for forward assumptions and returns. It is set with default numbers that one can replace for their own numbers. It's fun to play with.
    Side note: I traveled round trip from NYC to Luxembourg for $400 in 1973. I don't how that compares to prices today; but that was a hell of a lot of money at the time. And as you note, market places vary a lot depending on the product or service.
  • Reality Check 2 - Interesting Inflation Calculator
    Results of the 2 calculators seem pretty close. Thanks Catch. Were I to believe this nonsense, my accrued savings / investments are worth more in buying power today than when I retired 25+ years ago, despite generous withdrawals for all sorts of things over that time.
    No way, Jose!
    Some thoughts why one might feel poorer today than 25 years ago despite having the equivalent amount of “purchasing power”
    - Look at the quality of and features on new cars today compared to 1998. In the case of trucks, a late 90s pickup bears little resemblance to the big rigs of today. My last 2 new cars had limited self-driving features, anti-collision systems, larger wheels & tires than common 25 years ago for better driving. Plus much more in the way of entertainment / navigation features.
    - The cost for the data we consume today for streaming video, audio, cellphones and the like. Few possessed cellphones or internet connectivity in the 90s.
    - We take air travel for granted today. In the 90s air travel was more limited. There were fare wars as I recall that kept costs lower. (I actually date back to before wheeled luggage appeared. We carried our hefty luggage!)
  • Reality Check 2 - Interesting Inflation Calculator
    Thanks, hank. I've used the below for a number of years and posted in the way back days. This is set at default for 1913.....look at the rate of change as a percentage and value. Anyway, enter a year and dollar value to arrive at current cost or value and percentage change. One may move forward or backward with date entry. They also offer a decent write on methodology of CPI. READ the brief instruction info above the data entry area.
    I used this site, mostly in the past; related to bullion pricing. The site is operated by COIN NEWS.
    Inflation calculator
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    Did you rant with the same passion about the rich 1-2-3-4-10 years ago?
    Let's hear why it was better in that period.
    The rich get richer is old news.
    From memory, an average CEO used to make 30 times their average employee, it's over 300 times for years.
    Our politicians are great at spending money if they want to get elected.
    The US was downgraded already in 2011.
    Please save me the tears, Dems policies are great, GOP are evil.
    Another thread that discuss politics and policies without current investment applications.
    I don't need to explain my people, I don't have people, I voted for both parties and what I do with my own money or my contributions is irrelevant.
  • MMNIX - Miller Market Neutral Income Fund
    You may be getting misled by its extremely short history. Eyeballing its performance graph at M*, it looks like it tracked the entire (20 fund) category pretty closely. That is, the 1.6 std dev is not something special for this fund, but rather it is typical of the whole category over this short time span.
    Here's a Portfolio Visualizer comparison of MMNIX with two other relative value arbitrage funds. The other two funds, LEOIX and PSCAX have had no negative months in the same 16 month span.
    LEOIX does have a slightly higher std dev (1.7), but has a 12.05% annualized return vs. 9.63% for MMNIX. This results in a Sharpe ratio of 3.76 vs. 2.75 for MMNIX.
    PSCAX has a lower std dev of 1.45, but one pays for that with a lower annualized return of 8.23% and a lower Sharpe ratio of 2.16.
    If you want to get a sense of what to expect from this fund over a significant period of time, you could look at how these other funds performed. Over ten years, they've each returned 3.9% annually, give or take a few basis points (per Fidelity).
    One doesn't need to look at alternatives for funds that offer a smooth a ride and decent performance. Here's a Fidelity comparison of PRFRX with LEOIX and PSCAX. PRFRX has outperformed PSCAX over 3, 5, and 10 years with a similar 3 year std dev. Its performance longer term is comparable to LEOIX with a 3 year std dev that's about 1/3 lower. And half the cost (ER) of both.
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    "The coddled, spoiled, under-taxed wealthy have effectively been cannibalizing the rest of us for many years."
    H'mmm... some good points. I wonder if maybe ol' FD fits in there someplace? That might account for his silence here.
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    Over the next decade, we expect larger deficits as entitlement spending rises while government revenue remains broadly flat,” said Moody’s. “In turn, persistent, large fiscal deficits will drive the government’s debt and interest burden higher. The US’s fiscal performance is likely to deteriorate relative to its own past and compared with other highly rated sovereigns.”
    The coddled, spoiled, under-taxed wealthy have effectively been cannibalizing the rest of us for many years. Extension of the 2017 tax cut will simply accelerate that process. Current federal "leadership" in all three branches of gummint have created of s-hole country here already. On the current trajectory, we'll just slide deeper into the toilet. Misguided public priorities, misappropriated money, and the LACK of public funds available show up in so many ways: still no universal medical coverage. Still, we have antiquated mass transit. Still, the schools graduate kids who can't read and function and think. If there is a single decent lesson to be learned from the current regime, it's that gov't no longer is actually responsive to people's needs--- but not because there is some weird-ass "deep state" conspiracy.
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    As I wrote before, Moody's is late to the party. In that sense, Bessent is correct that Moody's is a lagging indicator. However, Moody's is also correct that there has been an "increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns.”
    The "more than a decade" that Moody's is looking at started in 2013 when Congress, with bipartisan support, made the Bush tax cuts permanent.
    Right through 2012, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) was projecting declining debt through 2037 (25 years).
    Under the extended baseline scenario, which generally adheres closely to current law, federal debt would gradually decline over the next 25 years—from an estimated 73 percent of GDP this year to 61 percent by 2022 and 53 percent by 2037. ...
    ...
    The budget outlook is much bleaker under the extended alternative fiscal scenario, which maintains what some analysts might consider “current policies,” as opposed to current laws. Federal debt would grow rapidly from its already high level, exceeding 90 percent of GDP in 2022.
    https://www.cbo.gov/publication/43288
    In 2013, after making the Bush tax cuts permanent, the CBO offered this outlook:
    CBO produced an extended baseline for this report that extrapolates those projections through 2038 (and, with even greater uncertainty, through later decades). Under the extended baseline, budget deficits would rise steadily and, by 2038, would push federal debt held by the public close to the percentage of GDP seen just after World War II—even without factoring in the harm that growing debt would cause to the economy.
    ...
    [U]nder the assumptions of the extended baseline, CBO projects [b]y 2038, the deficit would be 6½ percent of GDP, larger than in any year between 1947 and 2008, and federal debt held by the public would reach 100 percent of GDP, more than in any year except 1945 and 1946. With such large deficits, federal debt would be growing faster than GDP, a path that would ultimately be unsustainable.
    https://www.cbo.gov/publication/44521
    Moody's did not pull "over a decade" out of a hat because a decade sounds like a nice round number. It started at 2013 for a reason. And now, even without extending the Trump tax cuts, CBO is projecting deficits to run around about 6.1% of GDP annually over the next decade. That's not much less than 6½ and likewise unsustainable.
  • Any good sources for CEF performance in 2008? / Question answered. Thanks all!
    And the knowledge gained in all things financial over the years has allowed us to award our own degrees in 'economics' to ourselves. :) We've been able to share and pass along the knowledge. Compound, compound, compound !!!
    Yes. I’ve learned so much from the highly capable informed investors here over the years.
    And a plug for The Humble Investor by Daniel Rasmussen which @Observant1 shared here recently. I listen to the audio book most nights. His take isn’t mainstream. His idea of smart investing is to avoid whatever’s been hot and seek out underappreciated areas. And he admits that it hasn’t worked that well in recent years. But an interesting conversation nonetheless.
    I infer from Rasmussen that he perceives a lot of bubbles, especially in the private equity area - but late night listening isn’t always accurate and he’s pretty subtle.