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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Alternatives Monthly: Andrew Lo's Strategy
    FYI: (Click On Article At Top Of Google Search)
    Does evolutionary biology offer better insight into today’s markets than the immutable laws of physics? Andrew Lo, director of the Laboratory for Financial Engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, thinks so.
    Lo, also a finance professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Management, has spent decades in academia melding economics with behavioral finance and neuroscience. His research has made him a respected voice on hedge funds and risk management. As chairman of AlphaSimplex Group, part of Natixis Asset Management, Lo oversees $7 billion in five mutual funds that use hedge fund strategies.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/#q=Alternatives+Monthly:+Andrew+Lo’s+Strategy+wsj
    M* Snapshot AMFAX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/amfax/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot AMFAX:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Fund/AMFAX
    AMFAX Is Unranked In The (MF) Fund Category By U. S. News & World Report:
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/managed-futures/natixis-asg-managed-futures-strategy-fund/amfax
    M* Snapshot GAFAX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/gafax/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot GAFAX:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Fund/GAFAX
    GAFAX Is Unranked In The (MA) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/multialternative/natixis-funds-trust-ii-asg-global-alternatives-fund/gafax
  • Short Term Fund Options
    BSBSX might be another one to consider.
    @ep1 Here's a "play sheet". Have fun with the compare and contrast, as you click on the tabs for various investment intervals:
    https://www.fidelity.com/fund-screener/compare.shtml#!&fIds=BSBSX,PRWBX,DLSNX,VFSTX
    We have revisited this topic about every 6 months for the past 2 years, and nothing much in our collective assessment has moved, as far as I can tell. If safety is your #1 priority, then @hank has suggested a good one that hasn't come up much in prior discussions, viz. PRWBX. Rock-solid during the financial crisis. With respect to DLSNX, I think msf has it measured correctly; if dvd yield is your goal, you really have to ask yourself if the additional credit risk Baruch is taking on to get you a very slight increase in yield is worth it. Probably not. However, if you are planning to use DLSNX as a "holding pen" for money you eventually intend to shuttle to other DoubleLine funds (which is how I've looked at it, as a possible investment), at a more optimal time, then perhaps it isn't too shabby an option.
    On the other hand, just because things don't appear to have moved much does not mean things under the covers are not moving. If you're disappointed with current distribution yields (who isn't?), look critically at current allocations. Many ST bond funds have been holding their payouts steady while at the same time increasing their cash holdings, suggesting they are sensing a turning point ahead. If this proves to be correct, then you might benefit more in the near future by being in a fund that has an elevated cash position but may now be yielding slightly less than others.
    But I can't help thinking, every time this topic comes up for review, what a sorry state of affairs we're in, when we are reduced to scrutinizing how best to polish our pennies, as a significant mental exercise. :)
  • Ben Carlson: How The Finance Industry Tricks You
    FYI: One of the problems with the typical “trust me, we got this” attitude that you often see with financial professionals is the fact that most of the time their unwitting clients don’t really even understand what’s going on in their own portfolios. There are really no independent parties overseeing the overseers so a lot of the time it’s the clients who are left to judge the fund managers, advisors and consultants who are managing their money. Most investors aren’t qualified to be able to judge the performance of those investing or making decisions on their behalf, so it’s basically a whatever-they-say goes arrangement. It’s hard for many clients to even know that they have subpar results because the “experts” they’re listening to set the expectations and benchmarks.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/05/how-the-finance-industry-tricks-you/
  • Freddie & fannie
    This is a fascinating battle, as internal treasury officials in concert with outside financial players have conspired to undermine F&F in order to drive their function to the banks....the same guys which created the recent disaster in the first place.
    This is now in the courts, with the government attempting to shield incriminating documents under executive privilege claims. The judges are getting tired of being lied to, and this may become much more interesting very quickly as this scheme is being uncovered.
    Gretchen Morgenson from the NYTs is sniffing around the story here:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/22/business/how-freddie-and-fannie-are-held-captive.html?_r=0
    The ex-CFO of FNMA has as interesting ongoing blog on this as well, focused on the legal actions.
    https://timhoward717.com/
  • Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund accepts limited purchases
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1047712/000119312516598592/d191660d497.htm
    Revised filing as of 5/23/16:
    497 1 d191660d497.htm UNDISCOVERED MANAGERS FUNDS
    UNDISCOVERED MANAGERS FUNDS
    Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund
    (All Shares Classes)
    Supplement dated May 23, 2016
    to the Prospectuses dated December 29, 2015, as supplemented
    Effective as of the close of business on June 17, 2016, the limited offering provisions for the Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund will be revised. As of the Revised Closing Date, the current limited offering provisions in the section titled “How to Do Business with the Funds — Purchasing Fund Shares — What does it mean that the Behavioral Value Fund is publicly offered on a limited basis?” will be removed and replaced with the following disclosure:
    Effective as of the close of business on June 17, 2016, (the “Revised Closing Date”) the Behavioral Value Fund will be offered on a limited basis and investors are not eligible to purchase shares of the Behavioral Value Fund, except as described below. In addition, both before and after the Revised Closing Date, the Behavioral Value Fund may from time to time, in its sole discretion based on the Behavioral Value Fund’s net asset levels and other factors, limit new purchases into the Behavioral Value Fund or otherwise modify the closure policy at any time on a case-by-case basis.
    The following groups will be permitted to continue to purchase Behavioral Value Fund shares. Except as otherwise described below, shareholders of record are permitted to continue to purchase shares; if the shareholder of record is an omnibus account, beneficial owners in that account as of the applicable closing date are permitted to continue to purchase:
    •Shareholders of the Behavioral Value Fund as of the Revised Closing Date are able to continue to purchase additional shares in their existing Behavioral Value Fund accounts either through J.P. Morgan Funds Services or a Financial Intermediary and may continue to reinvest dividends or capital gains distributions from shares owned in the Behavioral Value Fund;
    •Shareholders of the Behavioral Value Fund as of the Revised Closing Date are able to add to their existing Behavioral Value Fund accounts through exchanges from other J.P. Morgan Funds;
    •Approved fully discretionary fee-based advisory programs, where investment discretion (fund and investment allocations) solely reside with the firm’s home office and where the firm’s home office has full authority to make investment changes without approval from the shareholder, may continue to utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for new and existing program accounts. These programs must be accepted for continued investment by the Behavioral Value Fund and its distributor by the Revised Closing Date. Additionally, after the Revised Closing Date, new fully discretionary fee-based advisory programs may utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for program accounts only with the approval by the Behavioral Value Fund and its distributor;
    •Other fee-based advisory programs (including Rep as Advisor and Portfolio Manager programs) may continue to utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for existing program accounts, but will not be able to open new program accounts after the Revised Closing Date;
    •Group employer benefit plans, including 401(k), 403(b) and 457 plans and health savings account programs (and their successor plans), utilizing the Behavioral Value Fund on or before the Revised Closing Date can continue to invest in the Behavioral Value Fund. Additionally, after the Revised Closing Date, new group employer benefit plans may utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for their accounts only with the approval of the Behavioral Value Fund and its distributor; and
    • Current and future J.P. Morgan Funds which are permitted to invest in other J.P. Morgan Funds may purchase shares of the Behavioral Value Fund;
    If all shares of the Fund in an existing shareholder’s account are voluntarily redeemed or involuntarily redeemed (due to instances when a shareholder does not meet aggregate account balance minimums or when participants in Systematic Investment Plans do not meet minimum investment requirements), then the shareholder’s account will be closed. Such former Fund shareholders will not be able to buy additional Fund shares or reopen their accounts in the Fund unless a former shareholder makes his or her repurchase within 90 days of the redemption. Repurchases during this 90 day period will not be subject to any applicable sales charges if such sales charges are normally waived for repurchases within 90 days of the redemption as described in the “Waiver of the Class A Sales Charge” or “Waiver Applicable Only to Class C Shares” sections below. These repurchase restrictions, however, do not apply to participants in groups listed above as eligible to continue to purchase even if the plan, program or fund would liquidate its entire position. If shares are purchased through a Financial Intermediary, contact your investment representative for their requirements and procedures.
    If the Behavioral Value Fund receives a purchase order directly from an investor who is not eligible to purchase shares of the Fund, J.P. Morgan Funds Services will attempt to contact the investor to determine whether he or she would like to purchase shares of another J.P. Morgan Fund or would prefer that the investment be refunded. If J.P. Morgan Funds Services cannot contact the investor within 30 days, the entire investment will be refunded.
    The Behavioral Value Fund reserves the right to change these policies at any time.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT
    WITH THE PROSPECTUSES FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • indexing
    You got me poking around on the topic of average...
    "In 1971, Batterymarch Financial Management of Boston independently decided to pursue the idea of index investing. The developers were Jeremy Grantham and Dean LeBaron, two of the founders of the firm. Grantham described the idea at a Harvard Business School seminar in 1971, but found no takers until 1973. For its efforts, Batterymarch won the prize for the "Dubious Achievement Award" from Pensions & Investments magazine in 1972.** It was two years later, in December 1974, when the firm finally attracted its first client.
    By the time American National Bank in Chicago created a common trust fund modeled on the S&P 500 Index in 1974 (requiring a minimum investment of $100,000), the idea had begun to spread from academia—and these three firms that were the first professional believers—to a public forum."

    The Indexing Story:
    vanguard.com/bogle_site/lib/sp19970401.html
    NAESX seems to be the oldest Mutual fund Index offered by Vanguard. Here's what 42 years of indexing (average returns looks like):
    image
  • Mark Hulbert: Stop Worrying About The Stock Market Crashing!
    Can't find any source where Icahn used the word "crash". Also, the market doesn't have to "crash" in order for him to make money on his position; it merely has to decline. And he has seemed to have chosen a reasonable point in the market's history at which to initiate such a position ( multiple years of gains and recent new highs, rich valuations by some measures, interest rate tightening cycle, etc. ) He just needs the economic growth data to slow a little more.
    Icahn can basically say " you can invent all of the narrative ( the mainstream financial media ) that you want about my investment moves, I got the money ! "
  • Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund accepts limited purchases
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1047712/000119312516597275/d196409d497.htm
    497 1 d196409d497.htm UNDISCOVERED MANAGERS FUNDS
    UNDISCOVERED MANAGERS FUNDS
    Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund
    (All Shares Classes)
    Supplement dated May 20, 2016
    to the Prospectuses dated December 29, 2015, as supplemented
    Effective as of the close of business on June 17, 2016, the limited offering provisions for the Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund will be revised. As of the Revised Closing Date, the current limited offering provisions in the section titled “How to Do Business with the Funds — Purchasing Fund Shares — What does it mean that the Behavioral Value Fund is publicly offered on a limited basis?” will be removed and replaced with the following disclosure:
    Effective as of the close of business on June 17, 2016, (the “Revised Closing Date”) the Behavioral Value Fund will be offered on a limited basis and investors are not eligible to purchase shares of the Behavioral Value Fund, except as described below. In addition, both before and after the Revised Closing Date, the Behavioral Value Fund may from time to time, in its sole discretion based on the Behavioral Value Fund’s net asset levels and other factors, limit new purchases into the Behavioral Value Fund or otherwise modify the closure policy at any time on a case-by-case basis.
    The following groups will be permitted to continue to purchase Behavioral Value Fund shares. Except as otherwise described below, shareholders of record are permitted to continue to purchase shares; if the shareholder of record is an omnibus account, beneficial owners in that account as of the applicable closing date are permitted to continue to purchase:
    • Shareholders of the Behavioral Value Fund as of December 31, 2015 are able to continue to purchase additional shares in their existing Behavioral Value Fund accounts either through J.P. Morgan Funds Services or a Financial Intermediary and may continue to reinvest dividends or capital gains distributions from shares owned in the Behavioral Value Fund;
    •Shareholders of the Behavioral Value Fund as of December 31, 2015 are able to add to their existing Behavioral Value Fund accounts through exchanges from other J.P. Morgan Funds;
    • Approved fully discretionary fee-based advisory programs, where investment discretion (fund and investment allocations) solely reside with the firm’s home office and where the firm’s home office has full authority to make investment changes without approval from the shareholder, may continue to utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for new and existing program accounts. These programs must be accepted for continued investment by the Behavioral Value Fund and its distributor by the Revised Closing Date. Additionally, after the Revised Closing Date, new fully discretionary fee-based advisory programs may utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for program accounts only with the approval by the Behavioral Value Fund and its distributor;
    •Other fee-based advisory programs (including Rep as Advisor and Portfolio Manager programs) may continue to utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for existing program accounts, but will not be able to open new program accounts after the Revised Closing Date;
    • Group employer benefit plans, including 401(k), 403(b) and 457 plans and health savings account programs (and their successor plans), utilizing the Behavioral Value Fund on or before the Revised Closing Date can continue to invest in the Behavioral Value Fund. Additionally, after the Revised Closing Date, new group employer benefit plans may utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for their accounts only with the approval of the Behavioral Value Fund and its distributor; and
    •Current and future J.P. Morgan Funds which are permitted to invest in other J.P. Morgan Funds may purchase shares of the Behavioral Value Fund;
    If all shares of the Fund in an existing shareholder’s account are voluntarily redeemed or involuntarily redeemed (due to instances when a shareholder does not meet aggregate account balance minimums or when participants in Systematic Investment Plans do not meet minimum investment requirements), then the shareholder’s account will be closed. Such former Fund shareholders will not be able to buy additional Fund shares or reopen their accounts in the Fund unless a former shareholder makes his or her repurchase within 90 days of the redemption. Repurchases during this 90 day period will not be subject to any applicable sales charges if such sales charges are normally waived for repurchases within 90 days of the redemption as described in the “Waiver of the Class A Sales Charge” or “Waiver Applicable Only to Class C Shares” sections below. These repurchase restrictions, however, do not apply to participants in groups listed above as eligible to continue to purchase even if the plan, program or fund would liquidate its entire position. If shares are purchased through a Financial Intermediary, contact your investment representative for their requirements and procedures.
    If the Behavioral Value Fund receives a purchase order directly from an investor who is not eligible to purchase shares of the Fund, J.P. Morgan Funds Services will attempt to contact the investor to determine whether he or she would like to purchase shares of another J.P. Morgan Fund or would prefer that the investment be refunded. If J.P. Morgan Funds Services cannot contact the investor within 30 days, the entire investment will be refunded.
    The Behavioral Value Fund reserves the right to change these policies at any time.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT
    WITH THE PROSPECTUSES FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • 50 ways to leave your lover.....investing lover that is! Changing gears.....
    Good Day to You,
    When I was seventeen, it was a very good year.....or so the lyric goes.
    Well, 17 was a long time ago for this one. Now to begin to leave one of my active lovers.
    If one is of the mind, passion and spirit for investing; the rewards, satisfaction and a form of love may leave a smile upon the face. While 50 ways (reasons) are not needed to leave an investing lover, one will likely determine a few key personal points.
    Needless to say, the group here are not one's normal invest monies in a 401k, 403b, 457 or some form of IRA just to build a retirement account. We here tend to "fiddle" with whatever is available to our accounts.
    Understanding/knowing the difference between being a passive or active investor is of value; as long as one also understands that he/she is likely active in managing choices which fall into a passive investment vehicle.
    The exceptions that come to mind are when one uses an advisor, be it human or robo. But, one has still made an active choice about this, too.
    So........the plan for this house for a total portfolio:
    ---75% VWINX , 65% IG bonds, 35% U.S. stocks, active managed
    ---15% FSPHX , healthcare, active managed; also included, DPLO (Diplomat Pharma stock)
    ---10% FRIFX , a different real estate active managed fund with a history of 50/50 stocks/bonds
    We have a percentage of all of these now, but will sell other holdings to accommodate the above numbers.
    For those interested, the below links present more information (click on the other tabs at the top, aside from these composition links:
    --- VWINX , composition
    This fund has superior returns for many years. Yes, it is subject to the markets not unlike any other fund.
    --- FSPHX , composition
    We still remain tilted towards the health sector and the many sectors within health related. Although this sector has been getting the whack during the past 6 or so months; our holdings average total return for the past several years remain most decent.
    --- FRIFX , composition
    You won't find an easy method for ranking in a category list for real estate, as this fund doesn't fit the normal holdings positions for this category, being about 50% bonds. As normal, we look for total return over a time frame; versus which fund is having the most fun, say, within a 1 or 2 year period.
    --- DPLO , A specialty pharmacy. This company IPO'd in October of 2014. We purchased near the IPO price, having been very familiar with the quality of the organization during its 25 years of being private. We continue to hold this stock.
    https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/goto/evaluate/snapshot.jhtml?symbols=DPLO&type=o-NavBar
    As we investors are always subject (or should be subject to change) to change, the following holdings will be liquidated; market conditions allowing (no black swans, etc. allowed), from some accounts outside of Fidelity.
    ---BRUIX , DPRRX , BAGIX , DGCIX , OPBYX , VIIIX , GPROX , PRHSX , HEDJ , FHLC , ITOT
    NOTE: all monies are tax sheltered accounts without current tax implications
    We'll arrive at a conservative/moderate balanced account holding. As with all individual investors, such mixes are subject to "the eyes of the beholder" function as to how the balance suits their needs and views. The investment mix is mostly biased towards U.S. markets and companies, although at this time; about 20% of the holdings relate to other than U.S. One would also expect these holdings to generate greater than 20% of earnings/yields from sources outside of the U.S. going forward and providing some international exposure by this method.
    Lastly, a large core holding in VWINX may be reasonably argued to possibly cause harm to an overall portfolio going forward due to its large percentage holdings in IG bonds. The main argument being that IG bonds have had one heck of a run for much too long. One may suppose that the "odds" factor such an argument. I will note again the phrase "that this time is different" since the market melt of 2008. Of course it is, eh? We live in a most dynamic investing world. At the very least, central banks and related polices operate upon the egos of the members. Who in these groups would want to look bad in the eyes of financial history? I suspect the central banks will continue to surprise many making decisions based upon every available form of data mining to obtain desired outcomes. Our house is still "betting" upon the investment grade bonds. This is no less as scary as the equity markets discovering flaws in the system, not yet known. With VWINX as the example, an investor will reap 35% of the up or down of the given equity holdings and 65% of the up or down of the investment grade bond holdings for a "total" result.
    Remain or become fully flexible and adaptable, not just to your perception of the investing marketplace; but more importantly, to and for yourself and those important in your life.
    This "personal overview" is likely incomplete; but will suffice for the time being.
    Comments welcomed.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • The Motley Fools Gardner’s Investment Philosophy
    MJG said:
    "It’s easy for me since it’s within my emotional and intellectual wheelhouse of action minimization style."-
    MJG, That's the name of the game. You've been known to castigate (indirectly of course) those you think are shifting significant invested funds around often. I'd be willing to bet that most of those, including myself, are invested in a core of securities or mutual funds that are within their wheelhouse and that they make very few changes of consequence.
    (There are a few here with particular skills and experience who don't fit that mold - but I could count those posters on the fingers of one hand. Kudos to that small group. They possess skills and temperament most of us lack.)
    What you do observe from time to time MJG are people playing around the edges, tilting slightly towards a particular undervalued sector, adding a modicum of equity risk after big market sell-offs or reducing their portfolio's risk profile a trifle after achieving outsides gains or for other reasons. I recall that back in January you posted that you had reduced your equity exposure somewhat, citing advancing age as the chief reason. I had a feeling at the time that you had also turned a bit less optimistic regarding equities?
    I've shared my approach before and don't wish to regurgitate. But in a nutshell, 80% entails a broadly diversified buy-and-hold strategy. Hell, I don't even rebalance within that area unless a component substantially exceeds/falls below a broad pre-set range. The remaining 20% is also mostly static, split between equities and fixed, but does allow for slight changes in emphasis based largely on perceptions of market valuation (which may be right or wrong) and also allows for the exceedingly rare short-term speculative investment where I might perceive opportunity.
    Half-way through retirement I believe that retaining a small capacity to add or subtract market exposure reduces overall risk and better allows me to stay the course for the long run. I genuinely love reading and following the financial markets, so am comfortable with this type of playing around the edges. Others may not be so inclined. All of this is not to say that there aren't irrational posters who appear to buy and sell everything based on emotion, moon cycles or their predictive prowess. But they're rare here and deserve no attention.
    Regards
  • The Motley Fools Gardner’s Investment Philosophy
    Hi Guys,
    “But a good portfolio can prosper for decades with minimal intervention. A basket of stocks is not a board game with turns and rounds. It's something that should be mostly hands-off. After a proper allocation is set up, one of the biggest strengths of individual investors is what they don't do. They don't trade. They don't fiddle. They don't require daily monitoring.”
    This quote is surprising because of its author. It came from The Motley Fool’s cofounder Dave Gardner as reported by the reliable financial writer Morgan Housel.
    Housel summarized Gardner’s unexpected conclusion with “But his point is that the game of investing is often won by the investor whose strategy is to "play" as little as possible….”.
    Here is the Link to the article:
    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/05/13/two-short-stories-to-put-successful-investing-into.aspx
    I didn’t expect Gardner’s statement; I see him as a stock-picker. This is yet another instance of how hard it is to characterize anyone with a simple summary. We’re complex by any standard.
    I practice what Dave Gardner preaches. It has served me well. It’s easy for me since it’s within my emotional and intellectual wheelhouse of action minimization style. That investment philosophy is not suitable for everyone. That’s good since the frequent traders help to keep the markets fluid and nearly efficient.
    Best Regards.
  • Jason Zweig: An Investors’ Credo To Live By: What Would Mom Buy?
    Hi msf,
    Thank you for your post. It is always a benefit to hear the case for a divergent opinion. In investing, like in most everything else, the rule rather than the exception is “Different Strokes for Different Folks”. To use another mundane and popular idiom, “We March to a Different Drummer”.
    It would be an unlikely and a unique set of circumstances if we all agreed on investment decisions and financial advice. That’s not the way of a free and informed marketplace.
    I am an amateur investor without any specific formal financial education except for college-level economics course work. When I started investing over 60 years ago, I knew next to nothing. The few things that I thought I knew were more wrong than right.
    During my very early learning years, private financial advisers and powerhouse mutual fund heavy organizations like Fidelity introduced me to the ins-and-outs of the investment game in a fair and balanced way.
    Sure the folks I was exposed to were aggressive, but they were also honest. Perhaps I was lucky; I suspect not. There are far more honest and trustworthy folks than frauds and cheaters. That’s true in all professional disciplines like engineering, construction work, doctoring, lawyering, and in the financial communities.
    Yes, some bad apples exist and prosper for awhile, but not for very long. Justice happens; scoundrels go to jail. Today, the Information Age exposes them rapidly, and the charlatans and short-changers don’t survive.
    I don’t want to seem especially Pollyanna in the investment arena. Some hucksters are always present and offering deals that are too good to be true. Caution and prudence must be exercised in all instances. A healthy skepticism and some fundamental research is a workable preventive cure with just a little effort.
    I suspect that you and I agree on some of the points made by Jason Zweig in this article and on most of his viewpoints in his general writings. He does document his work with great care. By the way, I was aware of the advisor code’s existence, but am not familiar with its details.
    Thanks again for agreeably presenting the other side of the equation to balance this discussion.
    Best Wishes.
  • Jeremy Grantham GMO Quarterly Letter: 1Q 2016
    Over the years on M F O,these ideas and others have been mentioned in the ag/farm thesis,many by @scott
    NASDAQ:CRESY
    NASDAQ:LMNR
    OTCMKTS:BWEL
    NASDAQ:ALCO
    Income issue ideas.
    CHSCO
    NASDAQ:CHSCP
    Also fertilizer companies and seed genetics although with more volatility.
    I own and reinvest dividends in LAND, FPACX, OTCRX
    Millennials spending is accelerating, new demands for healthier foods and using e-commerce
    Calavo Growers (CVGW) MasterCard (MA)
    http://www.ottercreekfunds.com/media/pdfs/OCL_Call_Presentation_1Q20161.pdf
    LAND a real estate investment trust, or R E I T LAND
    The geographic regions where our farms are located continues to experience steady appreciation
    We currently own 23,456 acres on 47 farms in seven states in the United States. We also own some cooling facilities, packing houses, and processing facilities as well; there is several other structures on the farms. These are part of the farming operation on our farms.
    We have a couple of different lease structures that we use for our tenants and we have been extremely successful in our leasing strategy. We've been able to average an average annual increase of over 16% on lease renewals over the past three years.
    There are no new farms being developed in most of these areas because all of the arable land is currently being farmed or it has already been converted to other uses, such as housing, schools, or factories.
    The trend that we are seeing is a steady decrease in a number of farms in our growing regions have been sold or converted to suburban uses. So California alone has been losing about 100,000 acres of farms per year. This has caused the farms that we own to be highly sought after and they have been rented for decades without ever being vacant.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-land-earnings-conference-174914965.html
    Farmland Partners Inc:FPI
    Farmland Partners Inc. is an internally managed real estate company that owns and seeks to acquire high-quality North American farmland and makes loans to farmers secured by farm real estate
    http://ir.farmlandpartners.com/file.aspx?iid=4426904&fid=33287632
    FPACX owns 0.31% of assets here.Very small position in a $17 bil fund.
    U.S. FARMING REALTY TRUST I, 0.07%
    35,000,000 U.S. FARMING REALTY TRUST II, 0.24%
    TOTAL LIMITED PARTNERSHIPS: 53,567,775.00 0.31%
    The sponsor of those trusts offered another opportunity last year.Maybe they"ll put together another in the future . Save your money for the minimum! Probably only available to "accredited Investors"
    Issuer
    U.S. Farming
    Realty Trust III,
    LP
    /s/ Charlie
    McNairy
    Charlie McNairy
    Manager, International
    Farming Corporation
    GP3, LLC
    2015-07-17
    11. Minimum Investment
    Minimum investment accepted from any outside investor
    $ 1,300,000

    http://b4utrade.brand.edgar-online.com/efxapi/EFX_dll/EDGARpro.dll?FetchFilingCONVPDF1?SessionID=CzTMe5a8UvZMR8Y&ID=10812508
    With a glass of wine. American Farmland Company.AFCO
    http://www.americanfarmlandcompany.com/portfolio.html
    NY Times Business Day from 07/22/14
    Cash Crops With Dividends
    How a few sophisticated investors found a way to transform
    strawberries into securities. Copyright © 2014 by The New York Times Comp
    http://investors.americanfarmlandcompany.com/Cache/1001205369.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=1001205369&iid=4589976
    Not Always Wine and Roses
    American Farmland Announces Review of Strategic Alternatives
    Company Release - 4/14/2016 4:01 PM ET
    NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- American Farmland Company (NYSE MKT:AFCO) (the “Company”), a specialized real estate investment trust focused on the ownership, acquisition, development and management of a portfolio of diversified, high-quality U.S. farmland, today announced that its Board of Directors has authorized the Company to commence a review of strategic alternatives to enhance shareholder value.
    Since the Company’s October 19, 2015 initial public offering, its shares have consistently traded at a substantial discount to net asset value which, as of December 31, 2015, was estimated to be $10.05 per share. The Company’s net asset value is based upon independent third-party appraisals of its farms which were performed as of December 31, 2015. The Company has retained Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and Raymond James & Associates, Inc. as its financial advisors and Goodwin Procter LLP as legal counsel to assist in a comprehensive analysis of all potential strategic alternatives. Alternatives to be explored may include, among others, joint venture arrangements, a merger of the Company, or a sale of all or part of the Company and/or its assets
    http://investors.americanfarmlandcompany.com/file/Index?KeyFile=33849746
  • Jason Zweig: An Investors’ Credo To Live By: What Would Mom Buy?
    Hi Guys,
    I like Jason Zweig. He is at or near the top of my ranking of all financial writers. Indeed, I like Jason Zweig a lot.
    Although I’ve never kept score, I probably agree with 95% of his writings without reservation. But I do take exception to his current WSJ article. I believe that it is far off target.
    Sure, asking financial advisors and analysts to be “prudent, honest, and ethical” is equivalent to motherhood, but I believe many more are so inclined than are commonly credited. Those who are not so dedicated are eventually discovered and they disappear from the landscape. Should standards be higher? Of course they should, but that too is pure motherhood.
    Just a little due diligence allows us to choose those who satisfy our needs and to discard those who are suspiciously self-promoters. I’m not alarmed that only about half of those asked risk recommending anyone as a financial guru. What satisfies me will likely not satisfy someone else, given our disparate timescales, investment styles, education, and investment goals. Why run that risk?
    All of Zweig’s 4 main points in his article are weak arguments and fail to make his case.
    Costs always matter, and every investor is fully aware of that crippling handicap. If asset managers overcharge for their services, they will simply not survive the fierce competition.
    Many fund managers fully recognize market size constraints and adopt appropriate strategies to navigate these limitations. Again, if they fail to do so, their returns suffer and they ultimately fail. The marketplace is a cruel disciplinarian.
    I don’t believe financial firms try an endless array of investment strategies to select one that statistically worked in the past. That approach is putting the cart before the horse. It’s recognized as a losing method. I believe these firms formulate an investing idea, a concept, a candidate strategy first, and next they challenge its worthiness using backtesting approaches for verification and selling purposes.
    A firm is not long for this world if it does not invest in its own product. Savvy investors always check that item early in their down-selection process.
    I would have closed the article with yet another “ethical acronym”. Permit me to add WWWB to the article’s short list. In this instance I mean What Would Warren Buy? I trust his wisdom more than my Mom only when investing is the issue.
    This is just one man’s opinion. Zweig must have been hard pressed to complete this column facing an eminent publishing deadline. What is your assessment?
    Best Regards.
  • Consuelo Mack WealthTrack Preview: Guest: Christopher Davis, CEO & Portfolio Manager,Davis Advisors
    Does anyone know why his long time co-manager, Ken Feinberg, suddenly left the firm?
    Invested with hid father in the past, but do not like funds concentrating in financial sector.
  • Consuelo Mack WealthTrack Preview: Guest: Christopher Davis, CEO & Portfolio Manager,Davis Advisors
    FYI:
    Regards,
    Ted
    May 13, 2016
    Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
    Bankers, financiers or money lenders, as they have been called derisively at various points in history are currently at one of their reputational low points. Presidential candidates from Bernie Sanders to Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have all taken their shots. Sanders has introduced the “Too Big to Fail, Too Big to Exist Act” which would break up the big banks.
    Dislike of banks and bankers is not a modern phenomenon.
    Thomas Jefferson once stated: “I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.” You can see why he and Alexander Hamilton, who created the first national bank and was the first Treasury Secretary, had their disagreements!
    Even some titans of industry have been critics. Henry Ford, the Founder of the Ford Motor Company was one of them, stating: “It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and money system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”
    Luckily, that revolution never came. For the record, banking and Wall Street provide the essential fuel for economic growth, mainly money and credit. They enable individuals, companies and governments to raise capital, buy goods and services, build, expand and invest. As this week’s guest points out, the vast majority of us are bank customers!
    Investing in financial stocks in recent years has been challenging. Over the last decade the S&P 500 Financials Index has delivered negative annualized returns whereas the S&P 500 has not. And although their annualized performance over the last five and three year periods has been close to 10%, the group has continued to underperform the market.
    This week’s guest is Christopher Davis, a third generation value investor whose family has a long history of investing in financial stocks and continues to do so today. Davis is Chairman of Davis Advisors, Portfolio Manager of the Davis large cap portfolios, and Co-Portfolio manager since 1995 of the firm’s flagship Davis New York Venture Fund, which was founded by his Dad in 1969. Chris has also been the Portfolio Manager of the fund’s no-load equivalent, Selected American Shares since its launch in 2004. In 1991 he created the Davis Financial Fund, now celebrating its 25th anniversary.
    Rated 4-stars by Morningstar, the fund has far outperformed its benchmark and the market since inception with better than 11% annualized returns. I began the interview by asking Chris why he created a fund focused on financial stocks in the first place.
    If you’d like to see the show before it airs, it is available to our PREMIUM subscribers right now. We also have an EXTRA interview with Davis about how his approach differs from his grandfather’s and father’s. It is available exclusively on our website.
    WEALTHTRACK is also available on a YouTube Channel. So if you are unable to join us for the show on television, you can watch it on our website, WealthTrack.com, or by subscribing to our YouTube Channel.
    Thanks for watching. Have a great weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one.
    Best Regards,
    Consuelo
    M*: Davis Family Of Funds:
    http://quicktake.morningstar.com/fundfamily/davis-funds/0C00001YWZ/fund-list.aspx
    Selected Funds Website:
    http://selectedfunds.com/funds/
  • Sometimes Moving Averages Are Just Lines On A Chart
    Hi Guys,
    BobC couldn’t be more on-target. He has it exactly right.
    Charts can be designed to illuminate, but they can also be designed to distort. Admittedly, I am guilty of doing both in my professional career. I suspect most of us have participated in that lame game to enhance our arguments in a competitive work environment.
    Charting is an art form that easily admits to those objectives. The simple choices of the axes scale and the timeframe represented control the visual impact of the data, and its likely interpretation. By including other data on the chart, false comparisons are encouraged.
    Charts are a tremendous way to summarize and highlight complex data. But the chart reader must be constantly alert to unscrupulous charting techniques. Nothing new here except that it is extremely pernicious in the investment industry.
    Take care to see if the purported differences displayed in the chart are truly meaningful differences or just a wicked selling point attempt. Take note of any broken axes. Check and understand the units used. How would the interpretation be impacted if the timescale were changed? Is the text in accord with the graph or does it conflict with it? Are other equally likely data interpretations plausible?
    I’m sure you get the picture. As usual, buyer beware. While it is perfectly true that financial data can be presented as “just lines on a chart”, these data often contain actionable information when used in conjunction with other data sources and formats. Good decisions need good inputs, and the honest chart can provide one of those inputs. You must discriminate between honest and corrupted data presentations. Both happen.
    Best Wishes.
  • Stratus Fund, Inc. to liquidate two funds
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/870156/000087015616000085/s497.htm
    497 1 s497.htm
    STRATUS FUND, INC.
    Supplement dated May 11, 2016 to the Prospectuses, dated October 31, 2015,regarding the Retail Class A Shares and the Institutional Class Shares, respectively, of the Government Securities Portfolio and Growth Portfolio (the “Portfolios”) of Stratus Fund, Inc.
    The Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Stratus Fund, Inc. (the “Fund”) has determined that it is in the best interests of the shareholders of the Fund to liquidate and terminate the Fund. The laws of the Fund’s state of incorporation require the approval of a majority of the shareholders of each Portfolio to effect such a liquidation and termination. As such, the Board intends to call for a Special Meeting of Shareholders to be held on or about June 7, 2016.
    If the liquidation of the Fund is approved by a majority of the shareholders of each Portfolio, the Fund will cease accepting purchase orders from new or existing investors, except for the reinvestment of dividends, effective as of the close of the New York Stock Exchange on that date. The liquidation is expected to be effective on or about June 10, 2016, or at such other time as may be authorized by the Board (the “Liquidation Date”). Termination of the Funds is expected to occur as soon as practicable following liquidation.
    The Fund anticipates making a distribution of any income and/or capital gains of the Portfolios in connection with its liquidation. The liquidation distribution may be taxable. The tax year for the Fund will end on the Liquidation Date.
    Purchasers of Fund shares who purchase from the date of this notice and before the liquidation date may be subject to liquidation expenses that they would otherwise not bear, and also may incur short-term capital gains on losses on those shares upon liquidation.
    Shareholders of the Fund may redeem their shares at any time prior to the Liquidation Date.
    If a shareholder has not redeemed his or her shares as of the Liquidation Date, the shareholder’s account will be automatically redeemed and proceeds will be sent to the shareholder at his or her address of record. Liquidation proceeds will be paid in cash for the redeemed shares at their net asset value.
    If a you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares, or the receipt of a liquidating distribution. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement. If you have questions or need assistance, please contact your financial advisor.
    If the liquidation is approved by shareholders, the Fund’s portfolio managers will likely increase the Fund’s assets held in cash and similar instruments in order to pay for Fund expenses and meet redemption requests. As a result, as of the date of shareholder approval of the liquidation, the Portfolios...
    (more information on the link)
  • Sometimes Moving Averages Are Just Lines On A Chart
    The naivete of conventional financial media that lack robust quantitative evidence and statistical significance in forecasting is shown in the repeated reporting of these "single degree of freedom" / 2nd derivative measures / articles
  • How To Fed-Proof Your Bondholdings Now
    Global bond yields touch new all-time low
    May 9 2016, 11:37 ET | By: Stephen Alpher, SA News Editor
    Global bond yields have fallen to 1.28%, according to a Bloomberg index. The high over the past decade was the 4.84% hit in July 2007 as the financial crisis was beginning to unfold.
    image
    https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/729628794936512512
    Probably will be discussed Here
    image
    Please join us for a live DBL/DSL audio webcast hosted by:
    Jeffrey Gundlach
    Mr. Gundlach will discuss his outlook on the markets and what he believes may be the best investment stratgies and sector allocations for the closed-end funds; DoubleLine Opportunistic Credit (DBL) and DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund (DSL).
    Thursday, May 12, 2016
    1:15 pm PT/4:15 pm ET/3:15 CT
    Register
    https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1085522