Why do people think foreign looks best over the next ten years? Valuations? I've heard that for years now.
Seems to me there are a lot of headwinds from inflation, and collateral damage from the war in Europe. Neither of those has a predictable end point.
That being said. I do own some IHDG and FYLD just in case. ;>)

Matt Levine, Part 2:
If you are delinquent on a car loan to Wells Fargo, eventually some system at Wells Fargo decides to repossess your car. There is some delay between when this system sets the repossession in motion and when someone actually takes the car. In the meantime, if you make a payment, or sign an agreement with some other person at Wells Fargo to avoid repossession, then some other system at Wells Fargo knows that Wells Fargo should not repossess your car. Do those systems talk to each other? Does the person signing the agreement, or the mailbox receiving your payment, have a way to stop the repossession that is lurching into motion? Meh, sometimes, maybe, but not all the time.
Again, this does not seem like rational profit-maximizing behavior by Wells Fargo; repossessing the car is surely more of a pain than having the borrower start making payments again. No one at Wells Fargo was like “bwahahaha, a clever trick would be to repossess people’s cars even after they start paying their loans back.” Wells Fargo just did it anyway. It is an emergent feature of Wells Fargo’s bureaucracy, and its computers.

Or:
Guaranteed Asset Protection (GAP) contracts are a type of debt cancellation contract (DCC) that generally relieve the borrower from the obligation to pay the remaining amount of the borrower’s loan on the vehicle above the vehicle’s depreciated value in the case of a major accident or theft. The auto dealer markets GAP coverage to the borrower and is paid the GAP fee. However, borrowers often finance GAP fees as part of their auto loan at origination and the GAP contract becomes part of the auto loan contract. If the borrower pays off the loan early, or the GAP contract otherwise terminates, the borrower may be entitled to a refund of the unearned portion of the GAP fee that they financed when first buying the vehicle. Such refund obligations usually are governed by the terms of the GAP contract executed between the borrower and the originating dealer, with GAP contracts sometimes requiring that the borrower make a written request to the originating dealer for a GAP refund. Respondent, as the owner and servicer of the GAP contracts, did not ensure that unearned GAP fees were refunded to all borrowers who paid off their loans early.

That is just, like, Wells Fargo entered into a complicated contract with its auto-loan borrowers, and the contract provided that in certain circumstances, years in the future, Wells Fargo would have to send some money to the borrowers, and Wells Fargo just stuck the contract in a drawer somewhere and ignored it, and so did the borrowers, so it never sent them the money. Very understandable, for the borrowers, who are busy people who have jobs and lives and are not necessarily reading every word of their auto-loan contracts. Less understandable, for the bank, which is a bank.

Or:
Another error occurred from July 2013 until September 2018, when Respondent did not offer no-application modifications to approximately 190 borrowers with Government Sponsored Entity (GSE) loans. Respondent erroneously identified these borrowers as deceased and therefore did not assess their eligibility for modifications. Respondent is paying approximately $2.4 million in remediation to these borrowers.

It is a little hard to tell how that one would work? Like, the rule is something like “certain mortgage borrowers need to be offered this loan modification.” Wells Fargo went through its records to see who needed to be offered the modification, and decided not to offer it to these 190 people because they were dead. They were not dead, so, a failure of record-keeping by Wells Fargo. But also … they were not offered the modification, so they kept paying their mortgages?[1] Like every month Wells Fargo would get a check from these people whom it had erroneously identified as deceased? If you got a check every month from someone who you thought was dead, you would be surprised, and presumably you would update your views. (You might think “aha, they are not dead,” or you might think “wow ghosts are real and very financially responsible,” or you might call them to say “so are you dead or what?”) But Wells Fargo is not a human with normal human intuitions. It is a big bureaucratic institution with databases that don’t necessarily talk to each other in sensible ways, and it blithely went along cashing checks from people while also believing they were dead.
Here are CFPB Director Rohit Chopra’s remarks on the enforcement action:

In the CFPB’s eleven years of existence, Wells Fargo has consistently been one of the most problematic repeat offenders of the banks and credit unions we supervise. …
Put simply, Wells Fargo is a corporate recidivist that puts one third of American households at risk of harm. Finding a permanent resolution to this bank’s pattern of unlawful behavior is a top priority. Today, CFPB is announcing an important step toward that goal: restitution for victims of Wells Fargo’s widespread illegal activities. …
While today’s order addresses a number of consumer abuses, it should not be read as a sign that Wells Fargo has moved past its longstanding problems or that the CFPB’s work here is done. Importantly, the order does not provide immunity for any individuals, nor, for example, does it release claims for any ongoing illegal acts or practices.
While $3.7 billion may sound like a lot, the CFPB recognizes that this alone will not fix Wells Fargo’s fundamental problems. Over the past several years, Wells Fargo executives have taken steps to fix longstanding problems, but it is also clear that they are not making rapid progress. We are concerned that the bank’s product launches, growth initiatives, and other efforts to increase profits have delayed needed reform.

Imagine being the sort of person who gets ahead in banking and becomes a senior executive at Wells Fargo. One of your subordinates comes to you to be like “I have an idea for a new product that will attract a lot of customers and bring in a lot of revenue.” Another one of your subordinates comes to you to be like “sometimes we charge people late fees even after agreeing not to, because our systems don’t talk to each other very well; I have an idea for how to modernize them to make sure that doesn’t happen. It will cost a lot of money, but in exchange we, uh, won’t get to charge as many late fees?” Which subordinate would you want to spend more time with? Who sounds like more fun?

When it launched, we referred to it as "Mr. Miller's retirement present from Legg Mason."
He's collecting a 0.77% management fee on $1.1 billion in a fund that - per Morningstar - is in the 100th percentile for the past week.
Month.
Quarterly.
Year.
Three years.
Five years.
Fifteen years.
- - - - -
The key is the "alpha or omega" performance that Mark alludes to. The fund trails only 84% of its peers over the past decade buoyed by top tier performance in five of those years and anchored by three dead last years.

@BenWP @LewisBraham
Since October first, BRTRX has sorta decoupled from TSLA ( after marching in lock step for years) , down 17% vs TSLA -48%, so it looks like Baron has trimmed the TSLA exposure to less than 50% reported at the end of September. But he probably still owns huge amount
While TSLA cars are apparently quite innovative, I do not think you can use it's previous growth rates as an indicator of what the future might hold. TSLA share of EV market has been declining, especially if you look at non luxury cars ( under $50,000)
https://electrek.co/2022/11/29/tesla-owns-us-ev-market-but-losing-market-shares-data/
The major safety problems with fires etc, the impossibility of autonomous driving anytime soon all are a concern. Would you put a TSLA battery in your house for energy storage? What if it caught fire?
It is hard to quantitate the impact Musk's behavior has on sales and the stock, but it can't be popular on Wall Street and with major banks. Who in their right mind would lend this guy money?
Maybe the problems are factored into the stock price, but how can you possibly know what the next shoe to drop from Musk will be ?

HAINX did well with Castegren, but after he was gone, Harbor stuck with Northern Cross for another seven years (2011 - 2018). Harbor wasn't quick to pull the trigger here, as outflows and poor returns piled up.

The firm was axed from the fund following what Harbor referred to as ‘a sustained period of underperformance.’
The fund had lagged its benchmark, the MSCI EAFE NR, in every calendar year from 2013 to 2017, according to Lipper data, although was ahead for the year [2018] at the time of the termination.
...
The fund had also experienced outflows with investors pulling money in every quarter from the last three months of 2014 onward. In total, over that time to the end of Q2 2018, the fund suffered net outflows of $28.9 billion, according to data from Lipper.

https://citywire.com/pro-buyer/news/boston-pm-shuts-shop-months-after-losing-20bn-subadvisor-spot/a1188410
Harbor similarly stuck with PIMCO as manager of HABDX for seven years after Gross left in 2014. Here that perseverance made sense. Despite the outflows, the fund turned in solid if not earth-shattering performance over that period.

The fund suffered heavy outflows in October 2014 following Gross’s abrupt exit from Pimco and has seen money leave in the vast majority of months since then. Over the last five years [through 2021], it has returned an annualized 4.43%, ahead of the Morningstar Intermediate Core-Plus Bond category average 4.12% and the Bloomberg US Universal’s 4.0%.

https://citywire.com/pro-buyer/news/harbor-drops-pimco-from-1-6bn-bond-fund/a1592923

We bought a bed and side table when we first got here. Great financing: zero interest for five years. Through Wells. Can we do this through any other source? Nope. Shit, OK, then. And they sent us a credit card we NEVER have used. Wells is a cesspool. Almost finished with the payments. Then I cancel that card!

Following are lightly edited excerpts from a current report by the Associated Press:

WASHINGTON (AP) — Consumer banking giant Wells Fargo agreed to pay $3.7 billion to settle charges that it harmed customers by charging illegal fees and interest on auto loans and mortgages, as well as incorrectly applying overdraft fees against savings and checking accounts.
Wells was ordered to repay $2 billion to consumers by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which also enacted a $1.7 billion penalty against the San Francisco bank Tuesday. It’s the largest fine ever leveled against a bank by the CFPB and the largest yet against Wells, which has spent years trying to rehabilitate its image after a series of scandals tied to its sales practices.
Regulators made it clear, however, that they believe Wells Fargo has further to go on that front. “Put simply: Wells Fargo is a corporate recidivist that puts one out of three Americans at risk for potential harm,” said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra, in a call with reporters.
The bank’s pattern of behavior has made it necessary for regulators to take additional actions against Wells Fargo that go beyond the $3.7 billion in fines and penalties, Chopra said.
The violations impacted more than 16 million customers, the bureau said. In addition to improperly charging auto loan customers with fees and interest, the bank wrongfully repossessed vehicles in some cases. The bank also improperly denied thousands of mortgage loan modifications for homeowners.
Wells Fargo has been sanctioned repeatedly by U.S. regulators for violations of consumer protection laws going back to 2016, when employees were found to have opened millions of accounts illegally in order to meet unrealistic sales goals. Since then, executives have repeatedly said Wells is cleaning up its act, only for the bank to be found in violation of other parts of consumer protection law, including in its auto and mortgage lending businesses.
Wells paid a $1 billion penalty in 2018 for widespread consumer law violations, the largest against a bank for such violations at the time. Wells remains under a Federal Reserve order forbidding the bank from growing any larger until the Fed deems that its problems are resolved. That order, originally enacted in 2018, was expected to last only a year or two.
CEO Charles Scharf said in a prepared statement Tuesday that the agreement with the CFPB is part of an effort to “transform operating practices at Wells Fargo and to put these issues behind us.”
While Wells Fargo tried to frame the agreement with the CFPB as a resolution of established bad behavior, CFPB officials said some of the violations cited in Tuesday’s order took place this year.
“This should not been seen as Wells Fargo has moved past its problems,” Chopra said.

(Text emphasis added)

Anybody know anything about C Worldwide Asset Management, the portfolio advisor for Harbor’s international ETF, OSEA? I linked what info Harbor provides on the fund’s site. I’m interested because of recent forecasts that favor developed international and developing country stocks over the next 10 years. OSEA seems to be invested in large familiar European companies, judging from the top 10 holdings. Schwab’s FNDF is on my radar also. My international exposure is low at present.
https://www.harborcapital.com/investment-teams/c-worldwide-asset-management

I read Vanguard's Outlook article too. I felt it was useful for me to predict 10 years out given there are number of crucial variables that are in play. For example, did Vanguard predicted the impact of pandemic events?

Several inflationary scenarios were discussed:

Sequence-of-Returns Risk, Explained
What is sequence-of-returns risk? It’s the risk of running out of money in retirement because of losses in the early retirement years. Early losses increase the probability of portfolio exhaustion for two reasons. First, they forestall the stock and bond gains needed to maintain and enlarge retirement funds over time. Second, they can force retirees to sell assets to support their spending at inopportune times—when stocks and bonds boast more-attractive expected returns.
High inflation has accentuated that risk in 2022, as many retirees naturally increase their spending as consumer prices escalate. While this inflation adjustment helps retirees maintain their standards of living, it further ratchets up the pressure on retirement funds and permanently elevates the base spending amount to which future inflation adjustments will be made. After all, today’s currently torrid inflation rate may moderate, but consumer prices are unlikely to go back to previous levels.

https://morningstar.com/articles/1129750/how-worried-should-new-retirees-be-about-market-losses-and-high-inflation

retirement? He's been around since forever. It seems to me he lost his mojo or juju, years back.

Consequences of Trump and his administration's blunders will be felt for years in this country. A lifetime grifter who should be on the golf course. It's embarrassing to see him read the teleprompter.
How this country fell for the defund the IRS, free money handouts for corporations, recommending horse drugs for Covid, violent, destructive and seditious riots, ripping children away from their families at the border, insane foreign policy, let convicted Trump conspirators out of jail, no consequences for crime is certainly the work of anti Americans.

Consequences of Biden and his administrations blunders will be felt for years in this country. Lifetime grifter who should be on the golf course. It's embarrassing to see him read the teleprompter.
Crazy news regarding the Twitter files. Government censorship why is it not front page on that propaganda rag the new York times? Seems many of the conspiracy theories are true over and over again.
I'm no orange man fan but for certain I'm no Biden admin fan either.
How this country fell for the defund the police, free money handouts, drug legalization, violent and destructive BLM riots, open borders, insane foreign policy, let folks out of jail, no consequences for crime is certainly the work of anti Americans.

Tom Madell Article:
Summary
"A long Fed pause, hopefully in 2023, might lead to surprising stock returns based on the effect of such pauses over the past 25 years. There have been five such pauses of over a year after the Fed began either to raise rates, such as now, or to drop them. In each case, the market showed outstanding gains during the paused period. We don't know when, or if the Fed will take a long pause during the current rising rate cycle, but if they do, investors will, in all likelihood, do quite well."
surprising-sp-500-stock-returns-after-fed-pause

One more reason to like Roths ….. ISTM
Excerpt: IRMAA is short for income-related monthly adjustment amount. It frequently surprises retirees because it is tacked on to standard Medicare premiums for people with incomes above certain cutoff points. Although it is aimed at higher-income retirees, “you don’t have to be rich to fall into the penalty box,” notes Denver financial planner Phil Lubinski.
This year, IRMAAs hit individuals with modified adjusted gross incomes of more than $91,000, and for couples, more than $182,000. Instead of paying the standard annual Medicare premium of $2,041.20, higher-income individuals are paying from $3,006 to $7,874.40. Couples can pay double that.
Each year, Medicare charges are reset based on the income that people reported two years earlier. Even retirees who never had a problem can be blindsided by an IRMAA after an unusually high-income year.
Ignorance isn’t bliss in such cases. People can often make income adjustments before year end to dodge an IRMAA threshold, such as selling losing investments to offset capital gains. Cutting income by as little as a penny can slice almost $1,000 off an individual’s annual Medicare premiums at the lowest levels, and thousands at higher levels.
Source / Barron’s https://www.barrons.com/articles/medicare-premiums-taxes-irmaa-51671059739
(Link may or may not work.)
Disclaimer - Not an expert on this - or even well informed. Highly recommend the article.

Damn I wish they had one for Giroux!! I’ve been wanting to get into his fund for years. Had hoped they would reopen it with the splitting of T Rowe into 2 units. Has anyone heard any recent discussion of PRWCX reopening?

To cop a line from Phantom of the Opera - ”These things do happen” ... :)
BHP is down slightly today. Worth noting - It is down about 5% the past 5 days according to Google.
Friday was a big quarterly options expiration date. Likely played a part.
WSJ Article: Traders Brace for Largest Options Expiration in Two Years -
“$4 Trillion - That’s the value of the equities underlying options contracts set to expire Friday, according to Goldman Sachs. Quarterly options expiration dates, such as today's, tend to see more activity because they tend to coincide with Wall Street's reporting dates.”
Source: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-12-16-2022/card/traders-brace-for-largest-options-expiration-in-two-years-Zg0tj1YBlx2dqaenWqDS

Yes, I think that Krugman is probably right on. The folks at the Fed aren't morons either- I'm pretty sure that between all of them they won't do anything totally stupid.

Right, they know exactly what's going on. That last "high for longer" message may reflect that; they're nearly done but plan on leaving the rate at/near the peak for a good while to make sure inflation doesn't explode again. I can't imagine they're really going to stay hawk-y until they see YOY at 2%.
But Felix Zulauf talked about another global inflation explosion a couple of years from now in his recent interviews.

@Observant1 @Junkster from the Barron's article:
"Every December for the past 13 years, Barron’s has identified 10 promising stocks that could outperform the market. This year’s group had a value bent, a benefit during a year when value outperformed growth by 19 percentage points. Barron’s 10 picks did even better.
The 10 stocks had a negative total return of 1.7% through Dec. 14, as measured from our publication date in December 2021. That’s 10 percentage points better than the S&P 500 SPX -1.11% index, which was down 12.1%, including dividends, over that span. "
Article

There's a VA clone of DFAT that oddly has performed about 2% better YTD (-5.24% vs. -7.26%), 3⅔% better (annualized) over three years (11.73% vs 9.08%), 1⅔% better over five years (7.59% vs 5.90%), and 3/4% better over ten years (11.26% vs. 10.44%). Same underlying ER, same managers. (The ETF was originally an OEF which explains how it has a long term record.)
You can coax some of this info out of M* by using instant X-ray and the "ticker" FVUSA001OG.
VA: https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/funds/233203710/va-us-targeted-value-portfolio
ETF: https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/funds/dfat/us-targeted-value-etf
Obviously a VA will have added wrapper fees. So this isn't a suggestion to go out and buy a VA to get the VA clone. But if you do own a VA and this portfolio is available, it is worth a look.